IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[MNDad]

You guys are making me look at things a little differently, which is good. But if the situation is as you speculate, why did the FBI claim that the girls are still alive? Do you think your unnamed suspect is holding them somewhere, or do you think they are dead?

Not sure how to answer that. First of all my thoughts are not based on much more than gut, things seeming out of whack with known verifiable facts and delayed behavior. I have always thought that the FBI made that statement as a form of manipulation and I'm not convinced that they meant it. My own personal feeling is that they are not alive, but I would love to be wrong.

 

[MNDad]

Grandma could have been rounding or estimating, but the CCTV verifies a last seen time range. It could be 12:11 or 12:19 or anytime around that range. This is a known verifiable fact and can't be overly disputed except for clock accuracy. It doesn't matter how accurate the CCTV clock is because even if it is off more than 8 minutes, as Otto pointed out, there simply isn't enough time for everything to take place. Abduction at the lake, abduction in town and bikes staged or any other scenario would not put those bikes at the lake with missing girls by 12:20.

All other times are hearsay and not verified which means that they may or may not be true. If they are not true, why are they not true? Not sleuthing anyone; just pointing out that the reason no one can wrap their minds around the timeline could be because one of the times may be fictitious.

 

[MNDad]

Grabbing a little sleep. Will check back in a few hours.

 

[CoeTrawk]

If we look at the statement from the camera owner, the author of 8 minutes, the girls not only need to ride 1.5 miles, but they need to drop their bikes and vanish. Personally, I'm not seeing where the 8 minutes came from.

He said that his camera, which recorded the girls at 12:11, is 8 minutes slow and in the same article, we read that the cyclist saw the bikes, but no children, at 12:20. According to my calculations, that leaves one minute, not eight.

A lot of people have said a lot of things about cameras, minutes, and cyclists. All of it can't be true. I was just answering someone's question which was, "could they ride a mile in 8 minutes?"

So if we think TG's sighting is out, the girls were on camera at 12:19, and the distance was 1.5 miles, it still allows the girls to be at the lake before 12:35 if they hurried. All that changes is they get nabbed later, unless we have some proof they never went to the lake.

 

[GrainneDhu]

If this is true. What time was the guy in the white van there? The guy that police wanted to talk to. Hmmm were they looking for information on TG maybe?

I seem to recall that he was there later in the afternoon, like around 2 or 3 pm. I do not have a cite and cannot recall his name so I can do an effective search.

 

[TeenyTaurus]

Grandma could have been rounding or estimating, but the CCTV verifies a last seen time range. It could be 12:11 or 12:19 or anytime around that range. This is a known verifiable fact and can't be overly disputed except for clock accuracy. It doesn't matter how accurate the CCTV clock is because even if it is off more than 8 minutes, as Otto pointed out, there simply isn't enough time for everything to take place. Abduction at the lake, abduction in town and bikes staged or any other scenario would not put those bikes at the lake with missing girls by 12:20.

All other times are hearsay and not verified which means that they may or may not be true. If they are not true, why are they not true? Not sleuthing anyone; just pointing out that the reason no one can wrap their minds around the timeline could be because one of the times may be fictitious.

I totally agree... in fact, have for a few days now. Many things simply did not add up... but a few things that didn't... well, I think you think what I think.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Grandma could have been rounding or estimating, but the CCTV verifies a last seen time range. It could be 12:11 or 12:19 or anytime around that range. This is a known verifiable fact and can't be overly disputed except for clock accuracy. It doesn't matter how accurate the CCTV clock is because even if it is off more than 8 minutes, as Otto pointed out, there simply isn't enough time for everything to take place. Abduction at the lake, abduction in town and bikes staged or any other scenario would not put those bikes at the lake with missing girls by 12:20.

All other times are hearsay and not verified which means that they may or may not be true. If they are not true, why are they not true? Not sleuthing anyone; just pointing out that the reason no one can wrap their minds around the timeline could be because one of the times may be fictitious.

I find it interesting that this 12:11/12:19 video is not a part of LE's official timeline. Nor is TG's approx. 12:20 sighting. Everything that I have found via MSM states that the last sighting of the girls was by G'ma at 12:15, followed by the bikes being found at approx. 3:40-4:00.

I can understand LE not counting TG's sighting, because he probably couldn't identify the bikes as being Lyric and Elizabeth's bikes. But I wonder why they aren't including the video of the girls in their timeline, since it seems to pinpoint a location and time when the girls were seen.

Maybe after a more careful review of the video, possibly enhanced or cleaned up somehow, the FBI were able to determine that it wasn't the girls on that video?

Also, it has been posted by others that LE/FBI discussed an 8 minute window while viewing the CCTV tape. I believe it was Mr. Pahl who stated that. But try as I may, I cannot find any MSM reference to this. All I have been able to find is an article in which Mr. Pahl states the camera is 8 minutes slow, but nothing about any discussions by LE/FBI about an 8 minute window.

Gosh, this is frustrating.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I seem to recall that he was there later in the afternoon, like around 2 or 3 pm. I do not have a cite and cannot recall his name so I can do an effective search.

"FBI spokeswoman Sandy Breault says the man and a white van had been seen at an Evansdale convenience store about 2 p.m. July 13, two hours before firefighters found the bicycles of 9-year-old Elizabeth and 10-year-old Lyric. The man spoke to investigators on Wednesday."

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504083_...in-surveillance-photos-speaks-to-authorities/

 

[hambirg]

I find it interesting that this 12:11/12:19 video is not a part of LE's official timeline. Nor is TG's approx. 12:20 sighting. Everything that I have found via MSM states that the last sighting of the girls was by G'ma at 12:15, followed by the bikes being found at approx. 3:40-4:00.

I can understand LE not counting TG's sighting, because he probably couldn't identify the bikes as being Lyric and Elizabeth's bikes. But I wonder why they aren't including the video of the girls in their timeline, since it seems to pinpoint a location and time when the girls were seen.

Maybe after a more careful review of the video, possibly enhanced or cleaned up somehow, the FBI were able to determine that it wasn't the girls on that video?

Also, it has been posted here that LE/FBI discussed an 8 minute window while viewing the CCTV tape. But try as I may, I cannot find any MSM reference to this. All I have been able to find is an article in which Mr. Pahl states the camera is 8 minutes slow, but nothing about any discussions by LE/FBI about an 8 minute window.

Gosh, this is frustrating.

The answers are here. . .
http://abcnewsradioonline.com/national-news/tag/elizabeth-collins

Black Hawk County Chief Deputy Rick Abben said. "The girls were less than a block from the house when this camera captured them riding by, important to note they were riding away from Meyers Lake."

The video also matches the police timeline. Investigators say the girls left the home to ride their bikes shortly after noon on July 13. The camera's clock shows it was 12:11 p.m. when they rode by.

 

[nikb]

The answers are here. . .
http://abcnewsradioonline.com/national-news/tag/elizabeth-collins

Black Hawk County Chief Deputy Rick Abben said. "The girls were less than a block from the house when this camera captured them riding by, important to note they were riding away from Meyers Lake."

The video also matches the police timeline. Investigators say the girls left the home to ride their bikes shortly after noon on July 13. The camera's clock shows it was 12:11 p.m. when they rode by.

If possible without getting you kicked off of WS or anything... WHAT answers are here? I'm really not trying to be dumb. I'm lost.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I know that I don't believe that TG is untruthful or truthful. I really think only time will tell, and he is an important voice in this situation. I won't blindly rule him out or in. MOO

I see another possibility: that TG is a completely honest witness who made a mistake about what he saw or when he saw it.

Since DNA testing became acceptable in the courts, the US has seen a plethora of falsely convicted prisoners found to be factually innocent. In close to 75% of those exonerations, mistaken eyewitness testimony was the cause of the wrongful conviction.

For example, in the book Picking Cotton, by Ronald Cotton and Jennifer Thompson-Cannino, Ms Thompson-Cannino was absolutely certain that she had picked the correct man that she was totally convinced was the perp who raped her.

There were hints from the very beginning that LE had the wrong man but Ms Thomspon-Cannino was so very certain that he was convicted.

She wasn't lying. She had every motivation to pick the correct man because the perp had threatened her before he left.

She was just mistaken. Tragically mistaken from Ronald Cotton's point of view.

It's a great book and I heartily recommend it for anyone who enjoys a feel-good ending out of the most unlikely of beginnings.

Now, I find it beyond belief that only eye witnesses in cases where the wrongly convicted make mistakes. I tend to think that mistaken eye witness testimony is probably a problem more often than is realised because there are more cases that do not involve DNA than there are cases that do.

So, I think TG could be mistaken about whose bicycles he saw, what day he saw them (he may have unconsciously confabulated two different days) or what time he saw them (say his cell phone is one where the time can be set and it is 10 minutes slow).

I do not think that TG is dishonest but there's plenty of room for error even with the most honest and sincere of witnesses.

 

[Confusion]

If possible without getting you kicked off of WS or anything... WHAT answers are here? I'm really not trying to be dumb. I'm lost.

Welcome to my world!

 

[Marilynilpa]

The answers are here. . .
http://abcnewsradioonline.com/national-news/tag/elizabeth-collins

Black Hawk County Chief Deputy Rick Abben said. "The girls were less than a block from the house when this camera captured them riding by, important to note they were riding away from Meyers Lake."

The video also matches the police timeline. Investigators say the girls left the home to ride their bikes shortly after noon on July 13. The camera's clock shows it was 12:11 p.m. when they rode by.

Right, I have read that article. But since the time Abben made this statement, the video has never been added as a "sighting" in LE's timeline. The official timeline still says the girls were last seen by G'ma at 12:15, with no mention of the 12:11/12:19 video.

That's why I was wondering if subsequent viewings of the video might have led the FBI to conclude it wasn't the girls on the video.

But I suppose that when LE is talking about a "sighting", they mean someone who actually saw the girls as opposed to them being seen on a video.

 

[GrainneDhu]

That only works if you take the comments made by the video owner, change the meaning and move the time on the video to 8 minutes earlier than the camera time. Since he said that the camera time was slow, not fast, we're left with the video time at 12:19.

Also, to accept that the FBI is looking at an 8 minute window, we have to assume that the FBI allowed a civilian to sit in during an active investigation and listen to everything that was said.

And then tell him, sure, reveal to the media anything you want.

That would seem to be diametrically opposed to the generally high level of secrecy LE is maintaining about this case.

In combination with your observations, that's just too big a lump of assumption for me to swallow unquestioningly.

 

[hambirg]

If possible without getting you kicked off of WS or anything... WHAT answers are here? I'm really not trying to be dumb. I'm lost.

Just very simply that the time on the tape matches the police timeline. If Mr P says that the tape is 8minutes slow. .. then that is likely true. Whatever the real time of the tape is. . .that matches what LE thinks.

Mr, Abben also says "it's important to note". To me, that means that LE thinks there is something significant there.

The only thing we can be sure of in this case is that they were caught on tape at 12:11. . .likely adjusted to 12:19 and that the bikes were found. . what 3:40ish? I know there have been some different times reported. . have we agreed on a correct time? I'll say sometime after 3:30 for sure.

MOO

ETA- I corrected this to reflect the correct time the bikes were found.

 

[Marilynilpa]

The only thing we can be sure of in this case is that they were caught on tape at 12:11. . .likely adjusted to 12:19 and that the bikes were found. . what 4:20ish? I know there have been some different times reported. . have we agreed on a correct time? I'll say sometime after 4:00 for sure.

MOO

SBM

I've seen it reported to be as early as 3:40 and as late as 3:58.

 

[hambirg]

Right, I have read that article. But since the time Abben made this statement, the video has never been added as a "sighting" in LE's timeline. The official timeline still says the girls were last seen by G'ma at 12:15, with no mention of the 12:11/12:19 video.

That's why I was wondering if subsequent viewings of the video might have led the FBI to conclude it wasn't the girls on the video.

But I suppose that when LE is talking about a "sighting", they mean someone who actually saw the girls as opposed to them being seen on a video.

It is very common in these cases for LE to be vague. . .even misleading. Take a gander at the Lisa Irwin threads and all the cell phone business. They do this to protect the integrity of the investigation. There are some things that only the perp will know. LE does not want that info to be public knowledge. For this same reason, I don't think we will ever learn how or where the bikes were found by the firefighters. . unless there is a trial.

I believe the girls were caught on cctv at 12:19. .there is no reason to believe that is not true. LE officially says Grandma saw them go by the house around 12:15. It fits perfectly that that is them on tape at 12:19. We do not have any idea what else was caught on tape. . .we only got to see that short little snippet. . .I think that is because there is likely something else of value to the investigation on that tape. Whatever it is that LE is thinking. . .they're not going to show their cards. You really have to take the few things that they do say. . . and their behavior. . .as significant. They are privy to sooo much more info than we are.

MOO

 

[hambirg]

SBM

I've seen it reported to be as early as 3:40 and as late as 3:58.

Ahhh. .. thank you! I was off when I said 4:20. . .I think I was thinking 3:20. BUT. . .3:40 to 3:58. Did anybody else report seeing those bikes before then beside the one 12:20 sighting?

 

[GrainneDhu]

Okay ... let's add the fact that one bike is a BMX and the other is ridden by a 4'11" girl that weighs 145 pounds. For me, that means they are riding slower than the average cyclist.

Additionally, there are 8 minutes between the time on the video camera (12:19) and the time that the cyclist called his daughter from the washroom (12:27), but the cyclist estimated that he saw bikes at 12:20. That makes 1 minute between the video time and the cyclist time.

I absolutely agree with your second point. Not even Lance Armstrong could pull off that feat.

Your first point, though, troubles me. I used to do the rolling rest/first aid station for bicycle club rides. My father was the unofficial rolling doc for RAGBRAI when it was just Karras and Kaul with a few thousand of their closest friends. I know a little about planning bicycle rides and how fast just average people can ride a bicycle.

The average speed for a reasonably fit bicyclist is 15 mph for planning purposes. By reasonably fit, I do not mean Olympic calibre or even All State level. I mean ordinary people, even people who could be described as pudgy. That included kids as young as 8 years old and adults in their 70s. Those average people could hit 30 mph over a quarter mile sprint.

A mile and a half on a bicycle is still within sprint distance (the distance during which anaerobic effort can be sustained). Doing 1.5 miles in about 8 minutes would be doing it at ordinary cruising speed.

Sure, the kids would have to be motivated instead of lollygagging along admiring whatever caught their attention. But two girls who thought they could pull one over on Grandma by riding down to the lake and back without Grandma noticing? I think they'd be pedalling their hearts out.

What I really wish I could do is contact TG and ask him what sort of cell phone he has, compare it to US Cellular time (because that's the known time according to Mr P) and ask him if he has adjusted the time on his cell phone in any way in the last month.

Not wanting to be perceived as a stalker, I'm not going to do it. If someone does it, it should be someone who has a pre-existing relationship with the gentleman and who fully discloses what is planned for the information.

If there isn't anyone like that reading this thread, my curiosity will have to go unsated. I've been through a lot worse in my life, I'm sure I'll get through that possibility as well.

 

[nikb]

Just very simply that the time on the tape matches the police timeline. If Mr P says that the tape is 8minutes slow. .. then that is likely true. Whatever the real time of the tape is. . .that matches what LE thinks.

Mr, Abben also says "it's important to note". To me, that means that LE thinks there is something significant there.

The only thing we can be sure of in this case is that they were caught on tape at 12:11. . .likely adjusted to 12:19 and that the bikes were found. . what 4:20ish? I know there have been some different times reported. . have we agreed on a correct time? I'll say sometime after 4:00 for sure.

MOO

Thanks Hambirg. I must get some sleep but I appreciate your reply. I completely agree with you on the surveillance tape times. In terms of the "last seen" the times I've seen were anywhere from 12:58 to 3:40 to 3:58 (for the bikes,girls seem to be about 12:15). Is there something newer? I completely agree there's got to be something significant about the tape and the girls riding "away from" the lake.

This whole thing is frustrating!!