IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[GrainneDhu]

Do you have the links for the dog tracking info?

I could only find this as the source with the most info. . .
http://www.kesq.com/news/Scent-dogs...irls/-/233092/15573282/-/10l1tt6/-/index.html

Scent dogs used by searchers looking for signs of two missing young girls in Iowa ran around a lake and stopped at the water's edge, the mother of one of the girls said. . . .

The FBI brought two dogs to the area to search Monday night, and the dogs were used again on Tuesday, FBI spokeswoman Sandy Breault said.

The dogs used scent pad samples taken from the girls' shoes and picked up a scent trail, but Breault couldn't say what, if anything, it led investigators to.

Misty Cook-Morrissey, Lyric's mother, told CNN that after smelling the scent pads Monday, the dogs ran around the lake and stopped at the water's edge.

Authorities said Tuesday that they didn't know whether the girls had been at the lake.

"We have their bicycles and we have the purse and that doesn't tell me that they've been there, just that those items are there," Abben said.

The reason I'm asking for a link is because if the dogs track from oldest to newest. . .then why did they stop at the water's edge? The girls weren't in the lake. Could it be that something belonging to the girls went in the lake?

For a link:

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/fb...cle_106642f8-d077-11e1-a859-001a4bcf887a.html

FBI spokeswoman Sandy Breault said the reaction from the dogs Monday night indicated a "strong possibility" the girls had been at the lake, less than a mile from their grandmother's house where they were last reported seen Friday. However, Breault said because there were no confirmed sightings at the lake, authorities couldn't be certain.

I'm discounting MCM's observations and it has nothing to do with her drug history.

Every dog works a little differently and every handler has their own training quirks. While it is possible for an educated observer to make a guesstimate of what a given tracking dog is indicating with their behaviour, only that dog's handler knows for sure.

Each handler puts in thousands of hours of training before their dog is ready to be deployed and during that dog's working career. Handling a tracking dog is like having a second job. Handlers keep meticulous, detailed records of their training logs and deployments so that they can prove in court, if necessary, that what the dog indicated was reasonably reliable.

So, when deciding how much weight to give an observer's testimony, it is important to consider whether that person has ever handled a high level tracking dog, how familiar that person is with the individual dog and what exactly that individual dog's behaviour consisted of.

MCM has, so far as I know, no experience in handling high level tracking dogs. Since the dogs were flown in from out of town, I doubt she had ever observed those dogs before. And she gave her interpretation of what the dog was doing rather than her observations of the dog's behaviour.

So, did the dogs stop at the water's edge? Maybe but that doesn't tell me how they behaved when they stopped. That behaviour would give me a chance to make a semi-educated guess about what the dog's behaviour meant.

I assume that the dog handlers gave their reports to the FBI and that Sandy Breault, as FBI spokesperson, was giving a summary of something in those reports.

Was it an overall summary? I have no idea. Were there any other indications? I have no idea.

Do dogs make mistakes? Sure. But what is the likelihood of two dogs, trained by different handlers, making the identical mistake? I think it's low.

All I know is that the FBI says that the dogs indicated a strong likelihood that the girls had been at the lake but they could not confirm it with any human eye witness testimony.

However, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

 

[GrainneDhu]

After watching the video surveillance many times over. The shadow person next to the house is bugging me. It's there that's for sure, but who is it? I'm sure LE has seen it and checked it out. If I remember right a rso was living next to the Collins, but he wasn't supposed to. Maybe he was watching the girls.

I go for the obvious explanation: that tape was showing the rear area of some businesses, it was during normal business hours and it was lunch time.

I think there's a good chance that whoever it was on that tape was someone who worked at the businesses (maybe grabbing a smoking break).

If an RSO lived next to the Collinses (which is new to me), wouldn't it be easier and less obvious for that person to watch from inside their own house?

 

[cindersoot]

I go for the obvious explanation: that tape was showing the rear area of some businesses, it was during normal business hours and it was lunch time.

I think there's a good chance that whoever it was on that tape was someone who worked at the businesses (maybe grabbing a smoking break).

If an RSO lived next to the Collinses (which is new to me), wouldn't it be easier and less obvious for that person to watch from inside their own house?

I will find the rso I was talking about. Maybe someone else here remembers what Im talking about.

 

[FrayedKnot]

Follow my thinking here -

Ignore the clocks for one second, let's say they're all wrong and the FBI knows it, but they have blurred/hidden this fact for the sake of the investigation.

Taking our own personal attempts at synchronising clocks out, what do you have left?

Mr G sighting the bikes AROUND 12.20.

This we know as close to being a fact as it gets.

The alternative is, he is LYING.

We know he would be lying as his daughter has gone so far as to state she spoke to him, confirm WHEN she spoke to him, and WHERE he said he was when she spoke to him.

TG being incorrect about seeing the bikes implies that not only is he being WILFULLY INCORRECT (eg lying) about the sighting, it implies his daughter is lying/incorrect as well.

We know that TG is in no way suspect, is in fact a highly regarded member of the community.

So...his sighting is either truthful, or not truthful. It's as simple as that.

Common sense says it's truthful.

Again I submit that TG may have been truthful about what he THOUGHT he saw but that the time may have been off and the bikes may not have even been the girls'.

That is not calling him a liar. It is saying that his account MAY not be of any value and in fact, MAY be muddying up the timeline and factual, vetted evidence. Again, MAY. I don't KNOW. None of is do.

And John Wayne Gacy was a pillar of his community. Nothing against TG, but I believe LE wouldn't automatically exclude TG as a POI based on his civic standing, but on other things. And since they don't seem to be investigating him, I assume it's because they don't think he has anything to do with this, not because he is in active in Kiwanas or what have you.

As ever, JMHO.

 

[FrayedKnot]

After watching the video surveillance many times over. The shadow person next to the house is bugging me. It's there that's for sure, but who is it? I'm sure LE has seen it and checked it out. If I remember right a rso was living next to the Collins, but he wasn't supposed to. Maybe he was watching the girls.

I think the girls were taken very close to that spot, perhaps even just out of camera range. And if there really is a figure there (there seems to be), perhaps he stopped the girls, with some innocuous greeting, while the abduction vehicle pulled up and they were grabbed and put inside.

Just a theory.

 

[cindersoot]

The rso Im talking about is Francis Heim. I guess he and his wife were in a motorcycle accident last year. She dies, he was fine. He told LE that a white van didn't yield, and took off after the accident. The white van has never been seen. This is all reported in the Waterloo Courier dated august 2011.

 

[cindersoot]

Anyway he the rso was found recently living in a house next to the Collins. I find this very suspicious.

 

[cindersoot]

I guess he was staying there. I was told that was a fb rumor so Im dropping it.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Anyway he the rso was found recently living in a house next to the Collins. I find this very suspicious.

Chief Deputy Abben did say that all the local RSOs had been cleared. I believe that by "local" he meant Evansdale rather than the greater Waterloo/Cedar Falls area.

In any case, I cannot think of any way in which using the word local in that context would exclude someone living next door to the Collinses.

 

[Bootsctr]

I think you are missing my point.

The girls were caught on cctv at 12:19.

LE and FBI are discussing an eight minute window while watching the cctv tape.

What is the eight minute window from when they were caught on tape? 12:19 to 12:27.

Why would LE be interested in that window of time?. . .the time between when the girls were last seen on tape and the time that someone who says they saw the bikes and made a verifiable phone call. . .after he saw the bikes, went to the bathroom and then called his daughter?

Do you have a link to where LE and the FB discussed the 8 minute window? I missed that. All I have seen is Mr. P saying the cctv time was slow. Thanking you in advance.

 

[ShyViolet]

Ted Gamerdinger rides a long way, from his home in Waterloo to the lake often.

Could you explain what you mean by "long way"? As in approx miles? I was under the impression that Edale and Waterloo were basically connected?

 

[Bootsctr]

lol... I'm sorry I shouldn't be laughing, this is a serious thing, but the last few hours I feel like I've been selling V8 and People mag! Sorry about that. I don't work for either one and didn't intend to be giving a sales pitch for either of them.

Related to the temperature I agree with you. I thought it was supposedly one of the cooler days they've had. If it was humid it might still feel pretty hot but I thought the high was low 80s (I'll try to find the link again). That's certainly hot but sounds like a mild day compared to how it is there sometimes in mid-July.

I specifically remember seeing WC on tape talking about the girls having a V8 I thought that was odd at the time.... why would she specifically mention
V8? V8 versus a soda because a V8 juice is supposedly healthier and she wanted everyone to know she was taking good care of the girls and making sure they drank their V8? After mulling it over, I think she was just remembering every minute detail of the morning of Friday, July the 13th. I'm sure she was/is reliving that dreadful day. I know I would be trying to think of every last detail hoping something would help find the girls.

 

[Bootsctr]

I actually wish I could say but I cannot say here. Besides it isn't based on anything but a gut reaction to possible coincidence between one of the suggested potential bait items and something I saw and remembered. All I can say is that if you snooped around the personal social profiles of all the people that have been discussed here (of course not sleuthing them and just learning the players), you would find a picture of this possible item that could hypothetically be used as bait.

HI! I love gut reactions! Anyway you could just post a picture? No names. No details. Just a random picture of "bait".

 

[MotherOcean]

You guys are making me look at things a little differently, which is good. But if the situation is as you speculate, why did the FBI claim that the girls are still alive? Do you think your unnamed suspect is holding them somewhere, or do you think they are dead?

They could be involved in the production of child *advertiser censored* or in pornographic social web cam groups. That's not necessarily my opinion but it could be the case. I don't know if they would still be alive now or not. I wish we would be an update on the case from the FBI.

 

[Bootsctr]

If the cctv is slow by 8 minutes and the correct time was 12:19
AND
TG's sighting of the bikes was 12:20
Then either it was not the girls on that video
OR
it was different bikes at the lake.

The same bikes in the video could not end up at the lake in one minute even if driven and dumped.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

Just an observation, but I am finding links to different MSM and local newspapers with different times. The timeline that I was referring to is the timeline listed at the Courier as 12:15 and here:

Grainy footage from a business security camera, revealed Tuesday for the first time, showed the two girls riding their bikes near a relative’s home about 12:15 p.m. July 13. The time stamp on the video matches the timeframe of when the girls were last seen before their bicycles were discovered near Meyers Lake. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...onfirms-missing-Iowa-girls-timeline?Frontpage

It would be nice to know when WC actually said she last saw the girls. I have read before noon earlier. It sounds as though LE/FBI believe her and the time stamp does coincide with the time she was stating. If we simply go by the time stamp on the cctv, it seems that would be the most simplest point to start or Ockham's razor to me. I think the times given by everyone we have discussed are all be off by several or more minutes, but if the time stamp on the cctv works with all the times we have been given w/o the 8 minutes factored in by what Mr. P told us, then it could work.

 

[Sunlight]

12:19 to 12:27. . .8 minutes.

I'll let the rest of you speculate why that is significant.

Interesting.


Okay, okay...I get what you mean. 8 minutes is what is significant. 12:27 was discussed. MOO

 

[RNER]

Ted Gamerdinger rides a long way, from his home in Waterloo to the lake often.

I know it is hard to believe, but if you privately "sleuth" him on google, you will see many indications that he is an avid biker and involved in biking events within and outside of the community. His business is also a sponser of many community events, festivals, etc. where he promotes biking.

IMO...he should be considered "reliable" and not "suspicious".

I agree with some of your other "theories" though!

 

[Bootsctr]

The answers are here. . .
http://abcnewsradioonline.com/national-news/tag/elizabeth-collins

Black Hawk County Chief Deputy Rick Abben said. "The girls were less than a block from the house when this camera captured them riding by, important to note they were riding away from Meyers Lake."

The video also matches the police timeline. Investigators say the girls left the home to ride their bikes shortly after noon on July 13. The camera's clock shows it was 12:11 p.m. when they rode by.

To me, (B) says LE is definitely using the camera clock time stamp, 12:11 p.m. (A) important to note "they were riding away from Meyers Lake".... not sure. Is that a clue regarding important to note? From what I understand there are at least 2 routes to Meyers Lake.

 

[RNER]

Just an observation, but I am finding links to different MSM and local newspapers with different times. The timeline that I was referring to is the timeline listed at the Courier as 12:15 and here:



It would be nice to know when WC actually said she last saw the girls. I have read before noon earlier. It sounds as though LE/FBI believe her and the time stamp does coincide with the time she was stating. If we simply go by the time stamp on the cctv, it seems that would be the most simplest point to start or Ockham's razor to me. I think the times given by everyone we have discussed are all be off by several or more minutes, but if the time stamp on the cctv works with all the times we have been given w/o the 8 minutes factored in by what Mr. P told us, then it could work.

I guess the questions to ask about this whole timeframe confusion is:

Which is more reliable and truthful...Statements by people or technology???

 

[Sunlight]

@MNDad. I'm on your same page. Tip of the iceberg.

I think it is important to proceed carefully, so someone doesn't freak and do something stupid. MOO