IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

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I am not sleuthing parents because I personally feel they are innocent. I do have a question that I'm hoping someone could answer. I must have missed something along the way. If DM backed out of a plea deal the day before the girls went missing and decided to go to trial and risk YEARS in prison why would this be suspicious of the girls disappearance? If he was being threatened by people he narc'ed on didn't he comply? Like if they said we are gonna take your kid if don't remove yourself from the plea deal then he did that, right? So why would the kids be abducted related to that if he in fact did back out of the plea deal?? I probably have something screwed up or didn't understand something. Please, no darts, just clear that up for me. TIA

I have thought the same thing. I don't know; maybe someone missed the cancellation memo.
 
This looks like a fun place, it even has an icecream shop nearby and people coming from out of town to visit...
http://wcfcourier.com/business/local/article_433e1ff7-a1f4-5529-8d3d-12b7e09cac3f.html
"Hall said Harris Haven's reputation is spreading. He said people come from area towns and as far away as Cedar Rapids and Kansas City to get scared. The idea is to make Evansdale the Halloween capital of Northeast Iowa, Hall said.

The addition is good for the community, he added. Since Harris Haven is located in Evansdale's business district, businesses nearby see an uptick in traffic when it opens the last weekend in September.

Brandon Gute, owner of 4 Queens Dairy Cream, said fall is not usually the best time to sell cool treats. When Harris Haven opens, he said business increases 10 percent.

"We see a lot more people come into town that we probably wouldn't if it wasn't for the haunt," Gute said"
 
Good evening, mostly peoples.

I went back to Meyers Lake today. I've got pictures to post, so hopefully I'm able to do that sucessfully. This post has a picture in it as a test case.

I must say, I was there for 45 minutes and I only saw 2 people. On a weekday between 12 and 4, this place is emptier than I would have thought. Of course, it is a possible crime scene these days. I still don't believe that the bikes sat there from 12:30 to 4:00 without being seen.

Anyway, here comes multiple posts by me.
 

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I am not sleuthing parents because I personally feel they are innocent. I do have a question that I'm hoping someone could answer. I must have missed something along the way. If DM backed out of a plea deal the day before the girls went missing and decided to go to trial and risk YEARS in prison why would this be suspicious of the girls disappearance? If he was being threatened by people he narc'ed on didn't he comply? Like if they said we are gonna take your kid if don't remove yourself from the plea deal then he did that, right? So why would the kids be abducted related to that if he in fact did back out of the plea deal?? I probably have something screwed up or didn't understand something. Please, no darts, just clear that up for me. TIA

MOO - I don't know a lot about plea deals etc, but my GUESS is that if someone was threatening him they had to have known whether or not he had already spilled the beans. I guess I don't know...I assumed you only GOT a plea deal by already talking and your deal would be based on how much worthy information they received. It wouldn't make sense (to me) for them to give you a plea deal first, and then make you talk. You could give them nothing at that point AND get a lesser sentence.:waitasec:

I've never truly felt the family has had anything to do with this, for many reasons. Typically, people who are involved with police don't enjoy their interaction with them if they have questionable records and avoid interaction with the authorities as much as possible. I also think all this would have been been solved much sooner if it had a clear connection to any of their past offenses. I'm sure LE has scoured every avenue of this entire family's past.
 
The police seems to think it is significant that they were not going in the direction of Myers Lake. I dont think LE is convinced the girls ever went there that day.

IMO

I'm just wondering how anyone can say that they are not going in the direction of the lake when the lake is South of the house and they have to first go either East or West for half a block before they go South. They went West, but that doesn't mean that they didn't then turn South. The same would be true if the first went East.
 
I just can't believe that if it were an abduction that neither girls wouldn't have screamed or started crying or SOMETHING that would have made noise. ESPECIALLY if TG did come riding by right about that time. I don't think that even if there was a knife or a gun that those girls (as terrified as they had to be) would have been completely silent.
...
But wouldn't you think that if someone came by on the trail that at least ONE of the girls, if not both would have kicked, screamed, SOMETHING that would have drawn attention? Maybe wishful thinking...

I had an old family friend who was a holocaust survivor. She recounted that many children were accidentally suffocated when parents attempted to keep them from screaming when in hiding. Children do not usually keep silent, especially young ones. I think a teen might be able to quickly rationalize that they need to be quiet but a young child and 8 and 10 are young would instinctively make noise. If not scream (which I know I would have) then at least cry. It just does not make sense that a stranger took them in such a public place and no one heard anything. The video of the attempted kidnapping of the girl who was with her brother showed her kicking and screaming and baby brother screaming. All young animals, including humans instinctively scream when grabbed. This leads me to my thought that they either knew who took them or were befriended by them. It must have been someone who appeared non-threatening to them, IMO.
 
I am not sleuthing parents because I personally feel they are innocent. I do have a question that I'm hoping someone could answer. I must have missed something along the way. If DM backed out of a plea deal the day before the girls went missing and decided to go to trial and risk YEARS in prison why would this be suspicious of the girls disappearance? If he was being threatened by people he narc'ed on didn't he comply? Like if they said we are gonna take your kid if don't remove yourself from the plea deal then he did that, right? So why would the kids be abducted related to that if he in fact did back out of the plea deal?? I probably have something screwed up or didn't understand something. Please, no darts, just clear that up for me. TIA

Not that i totally buy this theory, but Just because he doesn't take the deal doesn't mean the Big Boys trust he will keep his mouth shut. He could rat out for good behavior or whatever, down the road. Syndicated meth operations may not take kindly to being sold out by some two bit players. Maybe they are sending a message to other potential rats. He gave up the plea deal at the last second, you think that didnt have some serious players sweating it out? I wouldnt undersestimate these guys, not after last nights episode of Breaking Bad!
 
I am still leaning towards some kind of ring from outside the area moving in for awhile, finding and grooming several possible targets, and then grabbing one when the opportunity presents itself.

It just doesn't sit well with me that a long term resident of the area (pedo or not) would suddenly come out of the woodwork, grab the girls, causing them to seemingly vanish into thin air, and then go back under his rock, completely undetected. Practice makes perfect, no?

I think the bikes were staged. Or if not staged, the girls were taken at the lake so they would disappear at the lake. I think whoever took the girls had a pretty good idea that LE would follow the evidence. And the evidence amounted to a great big arrow pointing at the lake. I think this was done to buy some time, even a little. Even if the girls didn't stay in the area long, I think the ring would have needed time to pack up and move out.

I think that while the FBI knows enough to believe the girls are alive, they don't know who took the girls or where they are now. I think the ring was in the area long enough to possibly get to know some locals, who might have unwittingly provided direct/indirect assistance in the abduction. Perhaps something as simple as, "hey Joe, let me borrow your van for a day," and, "you bet, let me get the keys."

I wish this case could be neatly cut down by Occam's Razor. But I don't think the simplest set of events can account for everything I know about this case.

It can be...it can be sliced, diced and cut up perfectly.

My opinion only of course...what exactly makes you feel this way?

Not snark, genuine curiosity...pm's welcome!
 
As far as no one hearing the girls scream, I've had a few thoughts.

What is the noise level like there on the trail? It's close to the hwy and there was road construction going on. Is it possible that they did scream but just nobody was able to hear them?

My other thought is that a gun was used and the abduction was very fast. I think initial shock coupled with something that happened very fast could have prevented the girls from screaming.

And of course, there is the possibility that they were lured away.

MOO

ETA--I thought this was interesting. . regarding my tin foil hat theory.

http://www.kcci.com/news/politics/O...ur/-/9356970/16085882/-/159kvmyz/-/index.html

Re screaming -

Either they went willingly (my bet) OR

Taser.
 
I had an old family friend who was a holocaust survivor. She recounted that many children were accidentally suffocated when parents attempted to keep them from screaming when in hiding. Children do not usually keep silent, especially young ones. I think a teen might be able to quickly rationalize that they need to be quiet but a young child and 8 and 10 are young would instinctively make noise. If not scream (which I know I would have) then at least cry. It just does not make sense that a stranger took them in such a public place and no one heard anything. The video of the attempted kidnapping of the girl who was with her brother showed her kicking and screaming and baby brother screaming. All young animals, including humans instinctively scream when grabbed. This leads me to my thought that they either knew who took them or were befriended by them. It must have been someone who appeared non-threatening to them, IMO.

Apparently not everyone screams.

Carlie Brucia Abduction - YouTube
 
I had an old family friend who was a holocaust survivor. She recounted that many children were accidentally suffocated when parents attempted to keep them from screaming when in hiding. Children do not usually keep silent, especially young ones. I think a teen might be able to quickly rationalize that they need to be quiet but a young child and 8 and 10 are young would instinctively make noise. If not scream (which I know I would have) then at least cry. It just does not make sense that a stranger took them in such a public place and no one heard anything. The video of the attempted kidnapping of the girl who was with her brother showed her kicking and screaming and baby brother screaming. All young animals, including humans instinctively scream when grabbed. This leads me to my thought that they either knew who took them or were befriended by them. It must have been someone who appeared non-threatening to them, IMO.

Watch the video of Carlie Brucia's abduction.

Silent...
 
This first gallery I call "Blind Curves." Based on the where we think/know TG was coming from, and since he went to a gas station right away, I think we can guess he went around the lake clockwise, riding westward on the southern side of the lake. These pictures are of possible "blind curves" in the order (east to west) that he would have encountered them. These aren't the only curves in the path, but the others are on flat ground and not even remotely "blind."

Curve 1 is by the Maiden Woods and open field. You can see the beginning of the double fenced area. This is a blind curve to me. To see bikes here would suggest the riders were in the woods. They may have walked around the fence and in. This is the curve I thought was most likely TG's curve when I went the other day (and referenced in my post.)

Curve 2 is within the double fenced area. At riding speed, this might be a blind curve, but you can see how a person can see the trail ahead thru the fence line. There is a little bit of trail unseeable though. My guess is the girls had hopped the fence if the bikes were here. There's no reason to drop them here and then run around the fence.

Curve 3 is more of a hill, but it does create a blind situation somewhat. This is an uphill section that leaves the double fenced area. If the bikes were here, the girls may have gone to the water (possibly via paddleboat). I will show in another of my picture posts how much easier it is to access the lake from this region as opposed to anywhere else. But the top of that hill is still a bit of distance from the easy-access point that my pics will (hopefully) reveal.

Curve 4 is where the path hooks north and heads towards town and/or the parking lot. This is the least blind curve of all to me. If the bikes were here, maybe the girls were chasing squirrels. There are no thick woods here but there's enough brush to make water entry annoying at the very least. This is also very far from the double fenced area where we're sure "something" happened. Not a good candidate to me.

I favor curve 1 or 3, dunno what y'all think.
 

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I had an old family friend who was a holocaust survivor. She recounted that many children were accidentally suffocated when parents attempted to keep them from screaming when in hiding. Children do not usually keep silent, especially young ones. I think a teen might be able to quickly rationalize that they need to be quiet but a young child and 8 and 10 are young would instinctively make noise. If not scream (which I know I would have) then at least cry. It just does not make sense that a stranger took them in such a public place and no one heard anything. The video of the attempted kidnapping of the girl who was with her brother showed her kicking and screaming and baby brother screaming. All young animals, including humans instinctively scream when grabbed. This leads me to my thought that they either knew who took them or were befriended by them. It must have been someone who appeared non-threatening to them, IMO.

I too have heard from my parents that very young children were sometimes accidentally suffocated by their parents while hiding during WW2. This was often because an infant would cry from hunger, or a 2 year old would cry because he or she wanted to do something other than hide, but I have never heard that children were accidentally suffocated because they were screaming in fear.

Children are often silently abducted in public places during the day ... I don't think that there is any reason to assume that children that do not immediately scream must know their abductor. I agree that kidnappers can appear non-threatening. Karla Homolka was a 20 year old, normal looking woman that easily abducted teenage girls. She and her husband then tortured and murdered them.
 
Not that i totally buy this theory, but Just because he doesn't take the deal doesn't mean the Big Boys trust he will keep his mouth shut. He could rat out for good behavior or whatever, down the road. Syndicated meth operations may not take kindly to being sold out by some two bit players. Maybe they are sending a message to other potential rats. He gave up the plea deal at the last second, you think that didnt have some serious players sweating it out? I wouldnt undersestimate these guys, not after last nights episode of Breaking Bad!

Just don't understand why they would take the children, when they could just as easily take the adult/adults they are concerned about?

:waitasec:

Just MOO
 
No. Not to mention the fact that white vans are not the only vehicles used in these abduction attempts.

What I would like to know is how many attempts are made by a perp before he is successful(on average).

On average, I would say they are successful more times than not, but that's just a guess. We hear about attempted kidnappings and that the perp was not successful but I've also heard of a child reporting an attempt and it turned out they were merely asking directions or just being friendly. But there are too many kids disappearing and then turning up dead. Sounds to me like too many of them ARE successful.
 
This next set are all taken from the bike path, facing north (lake- and woods-ward.) These pictures are posted in order from west to east, unlike my curves gallery. That's just because I was walking counter clockwise around the lake. Hope there's no confusion.

Remember also that the lake is lower than it was a month ago due to draining.

Pic 1: a shot of the shore area. This is what its like for most of the shore. Tall grass and shrubs/bushes line the lakeside. Not the easiest place to enter the water.

Pic 2: closer to the double fenced area (see the start of the north fence to the right of the picture) there is, IMO, VERY easy access to the water. The brown "beach" there was under water of course, but there are no tall grasses stopping someone from jumping in (or parking a paddleboat...) Curve 3 from my last post is in this area.

Pic 3: the maintenence gate where the bikes were found. Locked now. It is thirty paces from the west end of the north fence. If the gate was open that day, it could have been used to get girls into a boat, but IMO the lakeshore area in pic 2 would be even easier. Neither area is more hidden than the other.

Pic 4: this is Maiden Lane as seen thru the fence. No gate here. I didn't notice ML the last time I went here. It suddenly occurs to me that this coincides fairly well with "Curve 2" from my last post. Maybe the girls hopped the fence here to check out this overgrown road, by whim, suggestion, or force.

Pic 5: See, I'm not crazy! LOL. There is a second gate. Also locked, but who says it wasn't on July 13? But as you can see, it doesn't lead anywhere. Maiden Lane ends at non-gate fence. This is just a random gate. But it is there and may have been used to catch the girls off guard. It is not very far from the end of Maiden Lane.
 

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I am heading for the state fair to go to the girls booth right now. Bbl
 
The gate/s were not locked at the time.

The bikes were found in the trail by the gate leading to a rock jetty and water outlet on the lake. The gate wasn’t locked at the time, Abben said.
There’s a chain link fence on both sides of the trail. The purse was on the lake-side of the fence, about 10 feet to the east of the bikes and about 2 feet from the fence, officials said.


http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/au...cle_87408126-d217-11e1-aec0-0019bb2963f4.html

Dan Morrissey speaking -

“The area the bikes were found is fenced on both sides,” Dan Morrissey said. “It was right where the maintenance gate was, so that is a spot to me that looks like a trap, you know, for an abduction to happen; for someone to just come along right there and follow them down or whatever.

“It would probably be the worst spot for them to be, that little area right there,” he said.


http://www.desmoinesregister.com/ar...-believe-cousins-were-abducted?nclick_check=1
 
MOO - I don't know a lot about plea deals etc, but my GUESS is that if someone was threatening him they had to have known whether or not he had already spilled the beans. I guess I don't know...I assumed you only GOT a plea deal by already talking and your deal would be based on how much worthy information they received. It wouldn't make sense (to me) for them to give you a plea deal first, and then make you talk. You could give them nothing at that point AND get a lesser sentence.:waitasec:

I've never truly felt the family has had anything to do with this, for many reasons. Typically, people who are involved with police don't enjoy their interaction with them if they have questionable records and avoid interaction with the authorities as much as possible. I also think all this would have been been solved much sooner if it had a clear connection to any of their past offenses. I'm sure LE has scoured every avenue of this entire family's past.


They can offer you a plea deal if you give up information, but the deal is only sealed once you talk. They can withdraw the deal at any time if you don't talk or if you give them bad information. The DA's office is the only one authorized to offer a plea deal. LE or the defense attorney can suggest it, but the DA does not have to go along with it.
Maybe Dan refused the deal because he was scared whoever he was ratting out could go after his family. And just maybe that someone didn't know he didn't talk, and that's why the girls were taken.
Just a thought.
 
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