IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #18

[otto]

Criminals stage crime scenes all the time. . .to throw off where the crime actually happened, or to hide evidence from people in their lives. One couldn't have the girls' bikes in their garage or work van. So a perp may have a need to get rid of the bikes in an area that wouldn't give away any details as to what route they headed with the girls.

Where the girls were actually abducted or where they were taken, may give clues to who the perp actually is. Unfortunately, in this case, if the bikes were staged, it seems to have worked.

Think of the planning that would go into something like that ... hard to say if they're still alive. If they are, it's not good ... I'm thinking worst case scenario, like the Long Island girls. They were kept alive for some time.

Clearly, if the abduction occurred at the parking lot, the bikes had to be hidden ... what better place than one that will stall the investigation. If the abduction occurred at the lake, how perfect that they met at such a secluded location.

 

[nikb]

<snipped for space>
Sometimes I even think of random highly unlikely scenarios where someone kidnapped them and took them on some extravagant vacation and haven't hurt the in the least, just a batty, crazy old lady who wanted to have fun with her money before she kicked it. I know incredibly unrealistic, but it sounds so much better than reality.

This is my favorite scenario yet. I realize it's probably the least likely of all, but as you said, I like it better than the likely reality.

 

[otto]

It's not quite dead center but it's close. It's slightly toward the east. Grandma couldn't see the front of the post office itself, but she could see the parking lot of that strip mall. The google man and I went for a walk and the Collins' house on Brovan can be clearly seen to the right of strip mall.

My google man runs, so I can't get more than a sneak preview.

Thanks ... so the grandmother most likely meant that the girls cycled, or circled around, in the parking lot near the old post office, and we know that they cycled down Brovan next to parking lots between Brovan and Lafayette. Which happened first?

 

[Jax49]

This is my favorite scenario yet. I realize it's probably the least likely of all, but as you said, I like it better than the likely reality.

There just aren't any realistic 'good' scenarios are there? Maybe I'll use the batty-old-lady one when the stress gets to me. Anyone have another 'good' one?

 

[nikb]

I really doubt that Lyric remembers much about living with anyone other than WC. She was born the end of 2001 and started living with HC in 2003 (hope I have the right year, maybe 2004?). She was between 1 and 2 years old at the time, and was only there for 18 months. Going by that, I believe she's been living with her grandmother for close to 7 of her 10 years.

I agree with you. I've been trying to find the link again (darn it, just when I thought I'd gotten good at saving the important ones,) but I remember reading that she had her own room at G'mas house and that she actually preferred to sleep in G'ma's room. It talked about how G'ma's room was mostly "decorated" by Lyric - rows of nail polish and dolls and such. I think I even posted it yesterday. I'll keep looking.

I think for Lyric G'ma is probably "Mom" in the sense of G'ma being the person who mostly raised her. Not to discount MCM's role in Lyric's life, but she just hasn't been there for various reasons for long spans of time, IMO. Hopefully when Lyric comes home they can re-establish that Mom/Daughter relationship.

 

[Considering]

My google man runs, so I can't get more than a sneak preview.

Thanks ... so the grandmother most likely meant that the girls cycled, or circled around, in the parking lot near the old post office, and we know that they cycled down Brovan next to parking lots between Brovan and Lafayette. Which happened first?

I have no idea. Ask your google man. He's on the run. He must know something.

 

[otto]

There just aren't any realistic 'good' scenarios are there? Maybe I'll use the batty-old-lady one when the stress gets to me. Anyone have another 'good' one?

It's not a good outcome, but I'm pretty sure that these children were abducted by someone familiar with the area that may have some Fridays off; maybe only in the summer. It's probably a random sexual predator that may or may not have abducted children in the past. As Morgan Harrington's father said, 'no one starts their criminal career with an abduction and murder' ... not even a sociopath. Sociopaths are devious, and this abduction does have one possibility that it was an extremely devious person that watched Elizabeth, planned every detail in order to escape detection, had no option except Friday, took the risk, planted the bikes, got away with it.

Has anyone ever met someone batty enough to kidnap children and not report it?

 

[nikb]

There just aren't any realistic 'good' scenarios are there? Maybe I'll use the batty-old-lady one when the stress gets to me. Anyone have another 'good' one?

I know... early on I had quite a few possible good scenarios in mind but as time has gone on there are less and less that seem likely. The only good ones I still have are so far fetched, but since you asked, the main one is maybe someone took them thinking he/she was "rescuing" them from who knows what. In my "Disneyworld happy" scenario the person's kind hearted and means well even if they're going about it the wrong way.

Other one I guess isn't really "good" but if they're alive at this point I'll call it a good scenario. Someone is "rescuing/saving" them but that person him/herself is not a person who'd treat them well, even if he/she thinks they are treating the girls well. Loosely along the lines of the Jaycee Dugard case.

One of my early good ones was that FBI had rescued them already and had them somewhere safe, but as time goes on I think that becomes less and less likely.

 

[CHERIE.T]

I know... early on I had quite a few possible good scenarios in mind but as time has gone on there are less and less that seem likely. The only good ones I still have are so far fetched, but since you asked, the main one is maybe someone took them thinking he/she was "rescuing" them from who knows what. In my "Disneyworld happy" scenario the person's kind hearted and means well even if they're going about it the wrong way.

Other one I guess isn't really "good" but if they're alive at this point I'll call it a good scenario. Someone is "rescuing/saving" them but that person him/herself is not a person who'd treat them well, even if he/she thinks they are treating the girls well. Loosely along the lines of the Jaycee Dugard case.

One of my early good ones was that FBI had rescued them already and had them somewhere safe, but as time goes on I think that becomes less and less likely.

You think the FBI would take the girls away from their families with no word and keep them for 8 weeks?
Would the FBI really torture the parents and grandmothers like that?

 

[otto]

I have no idea. Ask your google man. He's on the run. He must know something.

I'm guessing that they first rode past the camera behind the auction shop, circled around through the buildings, crossed Sipple Avenue towards the Post Office facing Lafayette, that's when the grandmother saw them heading towards the old post office ...

I guess they cut through the parking lots because the last recording of them has them going West ... the alternative is that they went to the Post Office parking lot first, circled back along Brovan, passed the camera and then vanished.

 

[nikb]

You think the FBI would take the girls away from their families with no word and keep them for 8 weeks?
Would the FBI really torture the parents and grandmothers like that?

No, I don't. Initially (as in like maybe 1-2 weeks after they disappeared) I thought maybe they had found and rescued the girls and were gathering evidence or something before they said anything, at least publicly. At this point, no. That's why I was saying it seems less and less likely - nearly impossible - as so much time has passed.

 

[hambirg]

Think of the planning that would go into something like that ... hard to say if they're still alive. If they are, it's not good ... I'm thinking worst case scenario, like the Long Island girls. They were kept alive for some time.

Clearly, if the abduction occurred at the parking lot, the bikes had to be hidden ... what better place than one that will stall the investigation. If the abduction occurred at the lake, how perfect that they met at such a secluded location.

I'm not so sure it had to take a lot of planning. I think you already know that I think the girls were likely abducted near Brovan. That parking lot near the old post office (thanks for the pic) has always creeped me out. Kids get abducted in parking lots. Why? Because a car doesn't look suspicious parked in one. If you see a van parked in a parking lot, well isn't that where most people would expect to see one?

If that is what happened and the bikes were staged at the lake, it could have been someone local that knew that corner of the lake was secluded. OR it was a perp who drove around and got lucky finding that secluded looking area. Where better to dump the bikes than on a bike trail? The bikes would probably look suspicious next to a dumpster, but not laying on a bike trail, kwim? If this is an experienced perp, they might just be good at avoiding suspicion. . .being inconspicuous.

Just one other thought. .. what other kinds of businesses are in that strip mall?

 

[Reverie]

If they weren't abducted, what happened to them?

Possibly abducted by a perp known to the girls vs a stranger abduction??

 

[otto]

 

[otto]

Possibly abducted by a perp known to the girls vs a stranger abduction??

It could be someone that said hello to the girls in the past ... someone casually known to the girls, or perhaps only Elizabeth, since she lived there ... but unknown to the parents.

 

[hambirg]

IIRC that building right behind the strip mall is a chiropractic office. Those two little parking lots on either side look kind of hidden from the street. I wonder if there is room for a car between those two? Hmmmm.. . .off to check out Google maps.

ETA_ I take that back. It is NOT a chiro office. It is low income senior (62+) housing.

 

[otto]

I'm not so sure it had to take a lot of planning. I think you already know that I think the girls were likely abducted near Brovan. That parking lot near the old post office (thanks for the pic) has always creeped me out. Kids get abducted in parking lots. Why? Because a car doesn't look suspicious parked in one. If you see a van parked in a parking lot, well isn't that where most people would expect to see one?

If that is what happened and the bikes were staged at the lake, it could have been someone local that knew that corner of the lake was secluded. OR it was a perp who drove around and got lucky finding that secluded looking area. Where better to dump the bikes than on a bike trail? The bikes would probably look suspicious next to a dumpster, but not laying on a bike trail, kwim? If this is an experienced perp, they might just be good at avoiding suspicion. . .being inconspicuous.

Just one other thought. .. what other kinds of businesses are in that strip mall?

Getting the bikes to that secluded location on the bike trail is what leads me to believe that there is some planning involved. There's no easy way to get the bikes there ... Maiden Lane, or next to the trees 50 or 100 feet to the East of Maiden Lane, on the exposed grass ... that's the only way to get the bikes there for staging. Still, it's one of the best places to leave them - better than an ice cream shop. Getting the bikes there so fast that the cyclist saw them before he phoned his daughter suggests very precise planning.

 

[nikb]

I agree with you. I've been trying to find the link again (darn it, just when I thought I'd gotten good at saving the important ones,) but I remember reading that she had her own room at G'mas house and that she actually preferred to sleep in G'ma's room. It talked about how G'ma's room was mostly "decorated" by Lyric - rows of nail polish and dolls and such. I think I even posted it yesterday. I'll keep looking.

I think for Lyric G'ma is probably "Mom" in the sense of G'ma being the person who mostly raised her. Not to discount MCM's role in Lyric's life, but she just hasn't been there for various reasons for long spans of time, IMO. Hopefully when Lyric comes home they can re-establish that Mom/Daughter relationship.

Here's one of the things I was looking for:

IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, and Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #14

No wonder I couldn't find it online. It was in the hard copy of the People mag. "Lyric has her own bedroom in Cook's house [article refers to Gramma as Cook] but prefers to sleep with Grandma, lining Cook's room with American Girl dolls, Barbies, and bottles of nail polish." I wish they'd post this story online already!

 

[otto]

 

[hambirg]

Getting the bikes to that secluded location on the bike trail is what leads me to believe that there is some planning involved. There's no easy way to get the bikes there ... Maiden Lane, or next to the trees 50 or 100 feet to the East of Maiden Lane, on the exposed grass ... that's the only way to get the bikes there for staging. Still, it's one of the best places to leave them - better than an ice cream shop. Getting the bikes there so fast that the cyclist saw them before he phoned his daughter suggests very precise planning.

I see what you are saying. I was thinking that the level of planning didn't necessarily mean the perp is a local. It could be someone that simply scoped out the area. I'm inclined to believe that this wasn't the first time the perp had seen the girls out riding their bikes either.

MOO