IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #23

[Squeeze]

That is sad, isn't it. Wonder if deep down she blames her sister for all of this. I just don't get it how she can forgive the killer but not her own sister - when her sister is hurting just as much

Catching up... this is from a ways back... I wondered that myself, but I don't think that really the case. Its not that she doesn't forgive her, but at some point, you have to distance yourself from that kind of negativity. Like she said, they deal with things differently, as evidended by Mistys odd behavior after the abduction. I'm sure she broke ties just for her own sanity. Odd the the night in the church after there bodies were found, they didn't talk then either. From wcfcourier.com.

 

[StormyNights]

That was beautiful....and so emotional.....

 

[BunnyHop]

I've watched the service. It was lovely.
I do have a few thoughts I am formulating.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I will never, ever be able to forget Lizzie. Can't say much more right now.

 

[GrainneDhu]

SS, my point was not made to negate or argue against your linear thought process or otto's thought process.

I was saying that wihout any facts it is harder to recognize KISS. I cannot say which theories are keeping it simpler than another because with so few facts it is just not knowable which way that though process leads.

People, perps, victims, they are all variables that are messy, individually operating entitiies and KISS also presumes to know what motivates this or that petson prompting this or that action.

Perpetrators are just as disparate in their thought processes and reactions as we are. Victims are as well.

How can I presume to know what is simple in a given moment or circumstance in a case?

ETA

That is what makes kiss so difficult for me to follow.

As biologists say: "Under carefully controlled conditions of temperature, humidity, and light, the organism will do what it damn well pleases."

Oddly, it has only been recently that a few economists have given up on the model of human economic behaviour that specified that humans act in rational ways. Even though it is completely obvious that humans are not rational. How does a model of rational human behaviour explain pet rocks, Michael Jordan sneakers or beanie babies?

I think it was John Douglass, the FBI profiler, who wrote about one of his FBI colleagues whose soon to be ex-wife came to his hotel room, shot him several times and left him for dead. At some point during the night, the guy came to consciousness, managed to get up and move around the room.

This is a trained FBI agent. Did he call for help? Nope. Did he try to preserve the crime scene? Nope. He got himself up off the floor, walked over to the television, turned it off, then walked to the bed and laid down. He wasn't found until he missed meeting his colleagues for breakfast. Fortunately, he survived the ordeal.

Apparently, he has since given lectures to FBI agents on how victims, evenly highly trained criminologist victims, don't always act rationally.

 

[Marilynilpa]

As biologists say: "Under carefully controlled conditions of temperature, humidity, and light, the organism will do what it damn well pleases."

Oddly, it has only been recently that a few economists have given up on the model of human economic behaviour that specified that humans act in rational ways. Even though it is completely obvious that humans are not rational. How does a model of rational human behaviour explain pet rocks, Michael Jordan sneakers or beanie babies?

I think it was John Douglass, the FBI profiler, who wrote about one of his FBI colleagues whose soon to be ex-wife came to his hotel room, shot him several times and left him for dead. At some point during the night, the guy came to consciousness, managed to get up and move around the room.

This is a trained FBI agent. Did he call for help? Nope. Did he try to preserve the crime scene? Nope. He got himself up off the floor, walked over to the television, turned it off, then walked to the bed and laid down. He wasn't found until he missed meeting his colleagues for breakfast. Fortunately, he survived the ordeal.

Apparently, he has since given lectures to FBI agents on how victims, evenly highly trained criminologist victims, don't always act rationally.

That's a very interesting anecdote.

I always learn so much from you, GrainneDhu. You have a great way of sharing information. I appreciate it greatly.

 

[Squeeze]

No.

The comment I was responding to was by not_my_kids: "Heather herself is almost too calm and composed."

I was offering a possible explanation for why Heather remains so incredibly composed.

I think it come strictly from her knowing that Elizabeth is in heaven. She know because she was there herself when she had a bad asthma attack and her heart issue. That would be comforting to know where she is, and that shes ina beautiful place. If she cant be hear on earth with her family, she is where she should be. I admire them for not wanting to dwell on how she died and and the condition of her body. But of course that will come out in time and they wont be able to avoid it. For now ignorance is bliss.

Of course none of us feel that way, or we wouldn't be here.

 

[GrainneDhu]

The shaded area is private land. Gunshots in this area in July - when there are no hunters - would attract a lot of unwanted attention.

http://beacon.schneidercorp.com/Application.aspx?AppID=330&LayerID=3621&PageTypeID=1&PageID=2344

Not necessarily.

Iowa is a state that has a lot of hunters, very enthusiastic hunters. Long about July, that's when the good hunters start doing some target practise to get ready for when hunting seasons open starting the middle of September.

Hunters that don't do a lot of target practise don't bring home meat. They pay a lot for those licenses and tags, so they are invested in taking the time and effort to succeed.

With all the trees in the area, the sounds of gunshots would get bounced around and muffled quite quickly.

I know that if I heard two muffled gunshots on a July afternoon and then no more, I'd figure that the wind may have carried the other sounds away from me. I wouldn't be concerned or alarmed.

ETA: the other thing I would assume is that someone was shooting a stray dog. Iowa is farming country and if a farmer sees a dog harassing their stock (not even inside the fence with the stock), it is perfectly legal to shoot the dog. In fact, that is what deputies will tell rural people who are being harassed by loose dogs.

In Iowa, we have a saying: "shoot, shovel and shut up." Meaning to shoot a stray dog, bury it on the back 40 and don't tell anyone.

 

[GrainneDhu]

KISS = "keep it simple stupid"

Profilers have no better success rate than psychics ... check out the article in the New Yorker.

The only difference is that FBI profilers get paid a steady salary and aren't harassed by the bunko squads.

 

[GrainneDhu]

It's about 4-500 feet.

That's a great map, Otto. I really appreciate all of your graphics, they are very helpful.

The only odd thing about the 500 feet is that typically perps leave bodies within 75 feet of a roadway. That suggests to me that one or both girls were alive and walked to the spot.

 

[Squeeze]

georger, I don't believe the date of death, manner of death and cause of death will ever be released to the public unless it comes out in a trial. This is clearly the wish of Heather and Drew Collins. I assume it is also the wish of Misty and Dan Morrissey, although they haven't made any comment to that effect.

I know from your posts that, like me, you really like links to official sources or MSM articles before you accept anything at face value. In this particular case, however, I am willing to accept that Heather and Drew have reason to believe that July 13, 2012 was the last day their daughter was alive. JMO

If nothing else, for their own sanity.

 

[Marilynilpa]

That's a great map, Otto. I really appreciate all of your graphics, they are very helpful.

The only odd thing about the 500 feet is that typically perps leave bodies within 75 feet of a roadway. That suggests to me that one or both girls were alive and walked to the spot.

I have no way of knowing this, obviously, but I feel both girls were walked in there. I'm thinking that at this point, they were still oblivious to the danger they were in. JMO

 

[Squeeze]

This came from the NG page on FB posted by Mary Wille Close:
The thing I don't understand is there was a lady that posted to a community page on Facebook telling people the day after they disappered that she was going to search the 7 bridges park and wanted people to go with her and that police should look there now why aren't they looking at her as a suspect since she obviously knew where to look. I don't think it was a coencedence that she said that.
This was posted on Monday around 7:02pm.

They very well may be looking at her. I believe that person was reported after the bodies were found, because of those statements made.

 

[passionflower]

Not necessarily.

Iowa is a state that has a lot of hunters, very enthusiastic hunters. Long about July, that's when the good hunters start doing some target practise to get ready for when hunting seasons open starting the middle of September.

Hunters that don't do a lot of target practise don't bring home meat. They pay a lot for those licenses and tags, so they are invested in taking the time and effort to succeed.

With all the trees in the area, the sounds of gunshots would get bounced around and muffled quite quickly.

I know that if I heard two muffled gunshots on a July afternoon and then no more, I'd figure that the wind may have carried the other sounds away from me. I wouldn't be concerned or alarmed.

ETA: the other thing I would assume is that someone was shooting a stray dog. Iowa is farming country and if a farmer sees a dog harassing their stock (not even inside the fence with the stock), it is perfectly legal to shoot the dog. In fact, that is what deputies will tell rural people who are being harassed by loose dogs.

In Iowa, we have a saying: "shoot, shovel and shut up." Meaning to shoot a stray dog, bury it on the back 40 and don't tell anyone.

ITA, here in PA with farms, guys shoot on their farms..........groundhogs and unwanted pests....and some shoot their own animals (esp. sick or hurt ones).........all farms around ignor gunshots.
Right now I live in the middle of horse farms.
Even before deer season, we would hear what I call target hunting.
On my son's farm, his sons do clay pigeon target practise.
2 shots during the day would never be thought of as bad.

BUT do we even know if the little girls were shot???
is this just speculation???

 

[Tucarra]

In case this hasn't already been clarified, it was Lyric's flip flops, Elizabeth's shoes.
http://www.hlntv.com/article/2012/07/16/missing-iowa-cousins-vanish-while-riding-bikes

"Elizabeth Collins is 4’1” tall, weighs 80 lbs, with sandy hair and blue eyes. She was last seen wearing a white shirt, shorts and black tennis shoes or high tops.

Lyric Cook is 4’11” tall, weighs 145 lbs, with brown chin-length hair, blue eyes, tanned skin, and a mole on the back of her neck the size of a dime. She was last seen wearing a light green shirt, shorts, and black flip flops that form a Sesame Street character when put together. "

Either way, I agree with you it's hard to believe the flip flops stayed on either girl, if they were carried. It makes me lean towards them being walked to where they were found. Or, it also occurs to me that maybe the flip flops were found "with" the girls but not necessarily on her feet.

This flip-flop thing is weird actually...

Personally, I can hardly keep them on going up or down a set of stairs...

So how in the heck would these girls keep them on, walking into a wild-life type area...or from an abjuction scene...or from an 'acquaintance' hook-up miles away...?

So the flip-flop thing just strikes me as something to think about...were they put there symbolically, or 'after-the-fact'...?

Just wondering?

 

[Marilynilpa]

They very well may be looking at her. I believe that person was reported after the bodies were found, because of those statements made.

IIRC, one of our posters tried to contact this person via FB. I don't know whether or not they were successful.

 

[passionflower]

They very well may be looking at her. I believe that person was reported after the bodies were found, because of those statements made.

she may not be a suspect but may KNOW something or someone!!!!

 

[BunnyHop]

I've watched the service. It was lovely.
I do have a few thoughts I am formulating.

I am going to think before I post.

:blowkiss:

There's a lot to take in.

 

[Marilynilpa]

This flip-flop thing is weird actually...

Personally, I can hardly keep them on going up or down a set of stairs...

So how in the heck would these girls keep them on, walking into a wild-life type area...or from an abjuction scene...or from an 'acquaintance' hook-up miles away...?

So the flip-flop thing just strikes me as something to think about...were they put there symbolically, or 'after-the-fact'...?

Just wondering?

If the girls were walked in, maybe Lyric had to stop a few times along the way. I agree that flip-flops would be difficult to keep on.

Lizzie wasn't wearing flip-flops, she had on high-top sneakers, IIRC.

 

[BunnyHop]

One thing I want to say, I live in NY. Every now and then I hear gun shots.

I would never think of calling LE, just me.