IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #26

[GrainneDhu]

Typically jealousy or money are two other common motives.

In some cases (not this one necessarily) there are people who benefit financially from someone being dead. Life insurance policies, death benefits,etc. I can't say one way or another if someone had life insurance policies out on either of these girls but if so, I'm sure LE has looked into that aspect as well.

As far as MOO on the life insurance policies go...this family doesn't come across as the type that has the financial means to take out large payout policies. Nothing but my own opinion, but I could be grossly wrong (as I frequently am).

I agree.

Life insurance companies generally will not issue large policies on young children for much the same reasons as they won't issue a policy without the knowledge and consent of the person that the policy covers. They do issue relatively small policies that would cover the costs of a typical funeral but those policies are falling out of fashion.

 

[carbuff]

Tracking dogs, by instinct and training, follow from the oldest scent available to the newest. Dogs can tell the difference in age of scent in increments as small as 1-2 seconds (which translates roughly into 2-4 human steps).

If the girls had been at the lake on Thursday but their bicycles were dumped there, we know that the girls were indeed riding their bicycles on Friday. The dogs would identify the bicycles as the newest scent available and cast around looking for even newer scent.

The details vary according to the specific way the dog is trained but essentially the dogs would say "hey partner, these bicycles are the newest scent available in this area."

That's the short version, anyway. I can go into the longer version(s) if you would like.

Thank you. I thought I remembered something like that being mentioned before. And yes, if you have time to explain, I would love to know the details.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I go back and forth, too.

And as much as I may think certain other scenarios fit the limited evidence better, there's no way to eliminate either a local RSO escalating his perversion or a Christopher Wilder/Israel Keyes type of killer who goes travels widely and just happens to be in town that day to spot an easy target.

Until the girls' bodies were found, I wondered about a wandering predator as well. Joseph Duncan is the one who comes to my mind as an example.

However, Meyers Lake screams local knowledge and so does 7 Bridges. Putting the two together, it seems to me that by far the most likely explanation is a perp with local ties.

 

[GrainneDhu]

On the topic of possible motives, here is an interesting quote from an expert that I don't recall reading before:

David Finkelhor, director of the Crimes Against Children Research Center at the University of New Hampshire, said that claim means investigators could 'have something quite important' for evidence.

He said cases of two children being abducted by a stranger were rare since it would be hard for one person to control both, which makes the common motive of sexual gratification less likely in this case.

He said it makes sense to look into whether the abduction is linked to the pending drug charges against Mr Morrissey.

In other cases, children have been kidnapped by rivals out of retaliation or held hostage to prevent incriminating testimony, he said."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...irl-Lyric-Cook-hospitalised-unresponsive.html

The problem with that is the fact that DM had already turned down the plea bargain. It is typical for plea bargains to include the provision that the person accepting it testify at the trials of other conspirators. By turning down the plea bargain, DM was avoiding having to testify against anyone.

By abducting the girls, someone just about guaranteed that DM would share whatever information he had with LE, just in case it was related.

I suppose it could be a motive by someone who was also an expert at shooting themselves in the foot.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Man, I'm gonna have to start eating my lunchables at the office. A guy can't go to the park anymore without being a perv. I know that isn't what you said, but I better play it safe.

Ooops, sorry.:what:

I replied to otto's post because I think Meyers Lake could be a place someone with a lunch hour or free time would choose to go.

I don't actually buy into the perv eating lunch at the park theory, but I don't see why it couldn't be possible. JMO

 

[LucyOso]

Until the girls' bodies were found, I wondered about a wandering predator as well. Joseph Duncan is the one who comes to my mind as an example.

However, Meyers Lake screams local knowledge and so does 7 Bridges. Putting the two together, it seems to me that by far the most likely explanation is a perp with local ties.

I am trying to catch up. I noticed some people were talking about the parents. All I can say is it is easy for all of us to project our superiority and mental prowesses over the way they talk, their confusion, etc from the comforts of our homes. I am sure if any of our children were abducted, we would become the confused, inarticulate people they are. If fact, a "perfect story" is more suspicious than people overwhelmed by grief, fear, guilt, terror, and sadness who are suddenly thrust into the national spotlight. IMOO.

That being said, any chance it was a group of teenagers, young adults with a car? Drinking beer at the lake, the brilliant idea to snatch some kids to scare them. Then the inevitable, we did that now, what do we do with them...I don't know the results of the autopsies...if they are posted, sorry, but, by focusing on RSO, we may miss something. Do we know if the girls were ever at the lake? Or just there bikes? If they were at the lake, and were being taunted by older kids/young adults, throwing a purse over a fence would go in line with that. :twocents:

 

[Squeeze]

Don't know if this means anything, but last summer a policeman told me and my husband Greenbrier Addition is the worst place in town for drug trafficking. I was surprised because I lived there for 21 years, and it was so hard to believe. But that was 18 years ago. I asked him, "You mean Greenbrier is worse than the E. 4th street area?" He replied, "Much worse."

I wouldn't disagree with that. Also, Wylmas neighborhood is probably just as bad.

 

[Squeeze]

Back to the deal about the reward fund, its been my understanding that Heather wanted no part of that, that she thought it wouldnt be appropriate. So I really cant see her being a trustee. But I could be wrong. That's my impression, anyway. There are plenty of other close friends willing to do it for them. Transparently of course.

 

[MNDad]

I agree.

Life insurance companies generally will not issue large policies on young children for much the same reasons as they won't issue a policy without the knowledge and consent of the person that the policy covers. They do issue relatively small policies that would cover the costs of a typical funeral but those policies are falling out of fashion.

I would add that a large policy on an adult is even hard to get. I had to prove my value and what my loss would mean to the family over time. I am not an expert, but I am pretty sure you can't insure children for a large amount.

 

[GrainneDhu]

True, but you still have to account for why no crime scene, no scene of a
fight, no evidence of disorder ... two healthy girls who didnt put up a fight
or one get away, etc ... this is my very strong bias.

There are many cases where healthy children go off with their abductor without putting up a fight.

One such example is Carlie Brucia, where video from two different locations (behind and in front of the car wash) showed her going off with the perp as soon as he grabbed her arm. She didn't look happy but she didn't put up a fight; an onlooker could easily have thought that it was a case of a parent admonishing a disobedient daughter.

Another example was posted in one of these threads, where a WS poster was victimised by an exhibitionist when she was young. She was riding her bicycle with a friend the same age, the perp stepped out in front of them, showed a knife and told them to come with him. They both went with him; fortunately he released them after masturbating in front of them.

I think it is not too unlikely that someone intent on abducting one or more children would carry a weapon of some sort. Doesn't have to be a gun, it could be a knife. Or they could get a fake police badge to flash at them to increase the likelihood of compliance with a (perceived) authority figure.

Another way to look at the likelihood of fighting is to look at military studies of soldiers in combat. Pretty consistently, studies across several armed conflicts show that only about 10% of all soldiers actually try to hit the enemy. These are adults who have been through basic and advanced training and yet the military still can't predict which ones will try to kill (the minority) from the majority who will not try to kill.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I think it's extremely common that the stress of having two children abducted in broad daylight on a summer afternoon is enough to cause memory problems and confusion for everyone. I would consider it normal to be unable to think straight after such a traumatic experience.

I would consider it highly suspicious if every family member's story meshed like gears in a clock. That would say to me that they had gotten together to compare and agree. Which then begs the question why.

 

[Considering]

I think her point could be that Wylma's time didn't change to 12:15 until the video was released. :waitasec:

Either way, we know they were alive at the split second of the video.

BBM

Incorrect. From the beginning, Wylma said she last saw the girls at 12:15 p.m. on July 13. See the links below.

http://www.kwwl.com/story/19023342/evansdale-police-searching-for-two-missing-girls

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_20c2e864-d215-11e1-a320-0019bb2963f4.html

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/ev...cle_18411a90-cd32-11e1-a656-0019bb2963f4.html


Mr. Pahl's video from Cornbelt Auctions was not released until July 25. Links below.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/missing-io...deo-elizabeth-collins-lyric/story?id=16850676

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

 

[Dr. Know?]

BBM

Incorrect. From the beginning, Wylma said she last saw the girls at 12:15 p.m. on July 13. See the links below.

http://www.kwwl.com/story/19023342/evansdale-police-searching-for-two-missing-girls

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_20c2e864-d215-11e1-a320-0019bb2963f4.html

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/ev...cle_18411a90-cd32-11e1-a656-0019bb2963f4.html


Mr. Pahl's video from Cornbelt Auctions was not released until July 25. Links below.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/missing-io...deo-elizabeth-collins-lyric/story?id=16850676

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

Thank you. I remember first hearing when Wylma and Misty were on HLN and Wylma said 11:30 was the last time she saw the girls but again, that's HLN. That was the day after they were abducted or their first appearance? The first article dated the 13th was updated on the 16th & the other two, one was late on 15th and the other the 16th. Abben provided the glue that grandma last saw them at 12:15 in one of the press conferences. That's all I remembered but didn't watch or read everything evidently.

 

[otto]

BBM

Incorrect. From the beginning, Wylma said she last saw the girls at 12:15 p.m. on July 13. See the links below.

http://www.kwwl.com/story/19023342/evansdale-police-searching-for-two-missing-girls

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_20c2e864-d215-11e1-a320-0019bb2963f4.html

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/ev...cle_18411a90-cd32-11e1-a656-0019bb2963f4.html


Mr. Pahl's video from Cornbelt Auctions was not released until July 25. Links below.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/missing-io...deo-elizabeth-collins-lyric/story?id=16850676

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

Thank you so much for finding the links! I didn't think that Wylma's story changed, but wasn't sure how to demonstrate the opposite of what has been repeatedly posted here.

 

[LucyOso]

BBM

Incorrect. From the beginning, Wylma said she last saw the girls at 12:15 p.m. on July 13. See the links below.

http://www.kwwl.com/story/19023342/evansdale-police-searching-for-two-missing-girls

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_20c2e864-d215-11e1-a320-0019bb2963f4.html

http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/ev...cle_18411a90-cd32-11e1-a656-0019bb2963f4.html


Mr. Pahl's video from Cornbelt Auctions was not released until July 25. Links below.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/missing-io...deo-elizabeth-collins-lyric/story?id=16850676

http://wcfcourier.com/news/evansdal...cle_c7394e3c-d6a6-11e1-a4f3-0019bb2963f4.html

LOL. Sometimes when my older kids go out, the only way I know exactly what time they leave is if they say..."But, 5 o'clock, that is only an hour and 10 minutes." I would be that same parent, with the ball park time as well. Other times I know the time. But, I can't judge them based on that.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Thank you. I thought I remembered something like that being mentioned before. And yes, if you have time to explain, I would love to know the details.

Dogs, wolves, coyote and fox all instinctively track from oldest to newest scent. Any animal that hunts for food does so because if they don't, they aren't likely to eat. A fairly common newbie training mistake to make is to teach the dog to track backwards. It isn't that dogs cannot track backwards, it's just that they have a strong instinctive desire to track forwards. I think we can rule out that sort of newbie training error in the case of the FBI dogs.

Now, imagine that the dog is looking for scent and moving along a path that is perpendicular to the scent trail. The two paths make a shape like a capital T (dog's path the vertical stroke, target scent the horizontal stroke). There's a chance that the dog will initially start tracking backwards. But an experienced, well trained dog will reverse within 10 feet if they find themselves going backwards. A normal, healthy human can cover 10 feet in 1-2 seconds at a brisk walk. So that means that a dog can tell the difference between scent that is 2 hours old and scent that is 2 hours 2 seconds old.

Pretty amazing!

A very common LE task for dogs is to figure out if a certain item was placed by the target person or if that item got into the environment in some other way. So the dog will be given the target scent from an item known to have been handled by the target person. Then they take the dog to where the item was found in the environment and the handler does the equivalent of asking the dog "did the target person go anywhere after this item was left here?"

The dog will check out the item and indicate "yeah, the target person was definitely here." Then the dog starts searching to find out where the target person went next. Most dogs will start making a loose spiral centred on the item. If they can't find any newer scent, they will go back to the item and then resume casting for newer scent.

Depending on the dog, they will circle the item 1-4 times before checking back at the item. Usually by the second time the dog checks back to the item, they are giving off definite signals of "ain't no newer scent here, partner." The handler usually encourages the dog to try again but at some point, the dog makes it clear that they are simply not finding newer scent. Some dogs will bark at their handlers in a very annoyed tone, as if they were saying "what part of this are you choosing not to understand???" Dogs are willing workers and remarkably tolerant but they don't have infinite patience.

I am purely speculating here: I think that when dogs are in an environment that they perceive it very differently from humans. For a human, it would probably be like being able to see a type of ghost of everyone who had moved through that environment in the last 2-4 weeks plus seeing the solid form of anyone who is actually present in the environment.

As a general guideline, if a scent question can be phrased in such a way as to require a yes/no answer, then a dog can be trained to answer the question.

 

[Tennlyn]

Man, I'm gonna have to start eating my lunchables at the office. A guy can't go to the park anymore without being a perv. I know that isn't what you said, but I better play it safe.

Please don't stop taking your breaks at the park. No perv would dare mess with a kid with a Websleuther around! :websleuther:

 

[Marilynilpa]

Thank you. I remember first hearing when Wylma and Misty were on HLN and Wylma said 11:30 was the last time she saw the girls but again, that's HLN. That was the day after they were abducted or their first appearance? The first article dated the 13th was updated on the 16th & the other two, one was late on 15th and the other the 16th. Abben provided the glue that grandma last saw them at 12:15 in one of the press conferences. That's all I remembered but didn't watch or read everything evidently.

Here's where I think the misunderstanding comes from about the 11:30 time:

We are taking your calls. Out to Ms. Wylma Cook. Ms. Cook is the grandmother of 8-year-old Elizabeth and 10-year-old Lyric. Ms. Cook, you were taking me through that morning. So they asked to go and ride their bikes, and that`s about what time?

COOK: 11:30.

GRACE: 11:30.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/17/ng.01.html

BBM

So 11:30 is when the girls asked to go for a bike ride, not the last time Wylma saw them.

But . . . Aunt Tammy says something different:

When my mother and I, the grandmother who was babysitting, when my mother and I went on our search for them, and this was at about a quarter to 3 -- and keep in mind the last they were seen was at 11:30 a.m., when they told mom they were going on the bike ride. So that is the last time they were for sure seen. And now, it`s going on to -- it`s getting close to being a quarter to 3.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/16/ijvm.01.html

LE says the last time Wylma saw the girls was 12:15, so Tammy must have been mistaken. But this kind of thing is frustrating when trying to work out a timeline.:banghead: JMO

 

[GrainneDhu]

I am trying to catch up. I noticed some people were talking about the parents. All I can say is it is easy for all of us to project our superiority and mental prowesses over the way they talk, their confusion, etc from the comforts of our homes. I am sure if any of our children were abducted, we would become the confused, inarticulate people they are. If fact, a "perfect story" is more suspicious than people overwhelmed by grief, fear, guilt, terror, and sadness who are suddenly thrust into the national spotlight. IMOO.

That being said, any chance it was a group of teenagers, young adults with a car? Drinking beer at the lake, the brilliant idea to snatch some kids to scare them. Then the inevitable, we did that now, what do we do with them...I don't know the results of the autopsies...if they are posted, sorry, but, by focusing on RSO, we may miss something. Do we know if the girls were ever at the lake? Or just there bikes? If they were at the lake, and were being taunted by older kids/young adults, throwing a purse over a fence would go in line with that. :twocents:

The results of the autopsy have not been released yet.

The evidence that the girls were at the lake is the bicycles, Elizabeth's purse, the FBI tracking dogs and at least one witness that puts the girls on Gilbert Street between 12:30 and 1:00 pm (Gilbert Street is very close to the lake). All those bits of evidence can be and have been extensively debated, of course.

 

[NWLady]

I know there has been much speculation about some of the family members' insistence that the girls weren't in the lake and how that seemed suspicious. However, I think it actually adds to their credibility (I hope being pro-family isn't against TOS). I would think that the only way insisting it was an abduction would benefit them if they were responsible is if the girls were actually found in the lake - but they weren't. If they were found in the lake, THEN I would be suspicious of the insistence on abduction. In hindsight of course, draining the lake was really a hindrance to the investigation because it focused the attention in the wrong place despite the families pleas that they weren't in there. They wouldn't have been pointing out the fact that their shoes weren't there on the shore if they were trying to steer the investigation away from what really happened. A guilty party would welcome the additional time diverted in the wrong direction. Insisting abduction would mean they were more likely to knock on doors for witnesses. Why encourage that process if you were the one who would have been seen with the girls? I'm not a veteran here but even I am getting tired of all the sideline comments about what can't be said and the snarky judgment being passed onto these people when the TOS are so clear and LE hasn't arrested them or named them POI's. Besides, they are clearly not "organized" enough to pull anything off without a shred of evidence being left behind or someone seeing them and recognizing them. If the father would flip on a drug friend he would flip on the murderer(s) of his children if he knew. I don't want to leave a place that usually has so much good banter going on but the insinuations are getting annoying when they clearly violate TOS.

Sorry, rant over.

My husband and I were just discussing that if our children were to come up missing and their bikes were found near a lake, the FIRST thing we'd be naturally inclined to think is they may have drowned. (We pray to God that this never happens to our children or any child). WHY would we think they may have drowned???...Because their bikes were found by a lake :waitasec:
:moo: