Found Deceased IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #37

[otto]

Just jumping off your thoughts.

Maybe (IF the rumor about asking for directions to the lake at Fareway is true) the girls came down the Evansdale Nature Trail and turned right at Gilbert...that would send them past Mr. Carpenters house on Lake, and continue to that Gilbert and Elmer intersection sighting (which is extremely close to the parking lot at Meyer's Lake).

IF this person just said "meet me at Meyer's Lake" closer to Lizzy's house, a child wouldn't naturally go to the most secluded spot at that lake. They would assume the person would park in the parking lot like a normal person.

Then...from the parking lot...they again pick up the Evansdale Nature Trail (that theoretically ENDS at the parking lot/Elmer Ave) and continue around the back side of the lake. This would ALSO account for the sighting that Aunt Tammy stated where someone said they saw the girls riding east on the trail. If that person was fishing at the edge of the lake, those girls would have ridden right by them on their way around the back side - headed for the drainage gate.

This ALSO means, the abductor could have potentially been parked on Arbutus in waiting - saw the girls come off the Evansdale Nature Trail (allows for the SUV sighting on Arbutus) - watches as the girls head towards the parking lot from Gilbert...and THEN move the "boxy white suv" down onto Maiden Lane (or that wooded area somewhere). They would already be hidden from the parking lot view from any potential witnesses.

BUT - the girls may see this person out on the drainage pipe area from the parking lot area - and took off around the lake - to the drainage gate. Right into the trap. No one from the parking lot would see a thing.

The girls possibly ride their bikes over to the gate (dropping their bikes right on the path (which could account for Gamerdinger's sighting if the exact timeline is ever validated by LE) or even up against the fence as when LE finds them) walked through the gate to the waters edge, because this person was already out there just messing around by the waters edge. Lizzy sits her purse down while joining in on the fun and then this person is in a perfect position to get them from the waters edge (back through the gate) and into the wooded area where the vehicle is - out of everyone's sight.

Whether the person forced them to the vehicle or not is to be determined, but I think either way, there were no people close enough to hear or see anything.

BBM
The Evansdale Nature Trail does not end at the parking lot, and it's really not possible to see someone with any clarity at the drainage pipe when standing at the parking lot.

The cyclist was at the drainage gate when the girls were between Brovan and Gilbert. It's not possible for them to be at Brovan at 12:23 and have parked bikes at the gate at 12:27. The cyclist statement has been excluded by police.

The Evansdale Nature Trail continues South, across Gilbert (not near Elmer), and would take the children directly to the drainage gate on the South side of the lake. They would not be seen at Elmer and Gilbert, or on Lake Ave. There would be no reason for them to turn off the Evansdale Nature trail if they were going to the drainage gate on the trail.

I have a map of the actual trail which should clarify - will post later this afternoon.

 

[Wondergirl]

Seven Bridges County Park, where the bodies were found:

Thanks, Otto.

There is something about these girls' heinous murders, that makes me feel a DEEP need to solve the who, how and why.......and I feel like banging my head against the wall when I try to make sense of everything in my head.

UGH

 

[carbuff]

I don't like to sprinkle my posts with innuendo or anything, but there are some people's stories that I just don't think hold water. Maybe I'm just too suspicious...

 

[otto]

Here is the bike trail. It actually continues on after the red line ends (just didn't include it in this map).



The purple line is the actual bike trail



These are the sight lines from the parking lot and dock to the drainage ditch



This is the relationship between the abduction site and where the remains were found

 

[otto]

Thanks, Otto.

There is something about these girls' heinous murders, that makes me feel a DEEP need to solve the who, how and why.......and I feel like banging my head against the wall when I try to make sense of everything in my head.

UGH

I completely agree. With some murders, such as spousal homicide, we can be fairly sure that although it may happen again, it is not random. These two murders were a result of a very deranged person and an opportunity (vulnerable children). The person that did this got away with it, and I'm fairly certain that it's just a matter of time until it happens again. That means that all children in the area are at risk.

I think that by revisiting this case three years later, and excluding suspicions of the family, the pieces of the puzzle have more clarity. We know that the cyclist had his 15 minutes of fame, but his information was not helpful. We know that although Klunder committed the same type of crime some time later, he is not involved. The timeline and witness sightings clarify the route the children most likely took prior to the abduction. I have to wonder ... if no time had been wasted with suspicions of the family ... is it possible that someone at the shopping mall may have remembered something? It seems like the girls had a plan to go to that location at Meyer's Lake, but why? Did they speak to someone at the mall parking lot before going there? Did Lyric have access to another computer - perhaps at a friend's house?

 

[Wondergirl]

I don't like to sprinkle my posts with innuendo or anything, but there are some people's stories that I just don't think hold water. Maybe I'm just too suspicious...

Please share your opinion.

The only big issue I have, and I have by no means microanalyzed every bit of psychology in this case, I take exception to the HUGE coincidence of the court date being the next day or whatever.

That is a key for motive for me - outside of a sexual one.

(Back to banging my head. ..)

 

[otto]

Please share your opinion.

The only big issue I have, and I have by no means microanalyzed every bit of psychology in this case, I take exception to the HUGE coincidence of the court date being the next day or whatever.

That is a key for motive for me - outside of a sexual one.

(Back to banging my head. ..)

Lyric's father had a court date within days of the abduction. He had agreed to a plea deal, and then backed out prior to the abduction - so that doesn't seem related. Furthermore, Elizabeth may have been the targeted victim ... given that they were at Elizabeth's house prior to the abduction, and Lyric did not live in Evansdale.

I think the only motive is sexual assault. That, in itself, has always been a motive for abduction and murder.

 

[otto]

I'm looking at all the illustrations ... someone said earlier that it gave the impression that I was interested in the case. I suppose I was, but I would have been working at the same time. Each time I had a question, I made a map. I wonder whether police ever produce a crime analysis document that contains only a brief description of the crime (an overview), and illustrations and maps associated with a murder/abduction. I wonder if something like that would initiate some new thoughts and theories.

I've wondered what a book would look like if it contained synchronous maps and illustrations of murders - some solved, some not.

 

[MzAlexis]

Otto - Great to have you posting on this case again & thanks for bringing all of the maps you made forward! They have really reminded me of so much info I had forgotten.

 

[otto]

Otto - Great to have you posting on this case again & thanks for bringing all of the maps you made forward! They have really reminded me of so much info I had forgotten.

Thank you. The maps are good for refreshing memories. It's interesting to see how many diverse angles we explored three years ago.

One question that came up at the time was why the girls were found 20 feet apart in a ditch near a path. Why twenty feet apart? To more easily hide them? Is that where they were killed? Were they placed in those locations while they were alive?

 

[TedMac]

Thank you. The maps are good for refreshing memories. It's interesting to see how many diverse angles we explored three years ago.

One question that came up at the time was why the girls were found 20 feet apart in a ditch near a path. Why twenty feet apart? To more easily hide them? Is that where they were killed? Were they placed in those locations while they were alive?

Good question. Earlier in the threads, it was reported that the area they were found was hardly accessible in the summer months due to the foliage, vine and plant growth, etc and one would almost need a 4-wheel ATV to get in there. I watched the video where the guy who found them actually drove his car in there, but it was during cold weather and definitely not in the summer. Some have suggested they were physically carried in and dumped there, but I tend to doubt that. Lyric weight 140+ lbs and would have been hard to carry anywhere, much less through rough terrain. Lizzy-not so much. I suppose a 4-wheel drive truck could have gotten in there and they were dumped from it? As for the 20 feet apart...hard to say. Your suggestion sounds about as good as any I have heard.

 

[otto]

Good question. Earlier in the threads, it was reported that the area they were found was hardly accessible in the summer months due to the foliage, vine and plant growth, etc and one would almost need a 4-wheel ATV to get in there. I watched the video where the guy who found them actually drove his car in there, but it was during cold weather and definitely not in the summer. Some have suggested they were physically carried in and dumped there, but I tend to doubt that. Lyric weight 140+ lbs and would have been hard to carry anywhere, much less through rough terrain. Lizzy-not so much. I suppose a 4-wheel drive truck could have gotten in there and they were dumped from it? As for the 20 feet apart...hard to say. Your suggestion sounds about as good as any I have heard.

There is a trail that is big enough for a vehicle. In fact, lots of police vehicles were parked on that trail after the bodies were discovered. The trail turns into a walking/hunting trail, but it starts as a dirt road for vehicles. I don't think it would be a problem to tell two frighted children to walk down the path and step into the clearing behind the ditch. Some people wonder if one of the girls made a run for it, and that's why one body is farther away. I don't think there's any question that they would have been somewhat restrained by then - perhaps with plastic zip ties or duct tape. Maybe it was rope and a gun. Who knows ... no information released.


But it's there.



... on the left

 

[TedMac]

There is a trail that is big enough for a vehicle. In fact, lots of police vehicles were parked on that trail after the bodies were discovered. The trail turns into a walking/hunting trail, but it starts as a dirt road for vehicles. I don't think it would be a problem to tell two frighted children to walk down the path and step into the clearing behind the ditch. Some people wonder if one of the girls made a run for it, and that's why one body is farther away. I don't think there's any question that they would have been somewhat restrained by then - perhaps with plastic zip ties or duct tape. Maybe it was rope and a gun. Who knows ... no information released.

Has LE ever disclosed the cause of death? Also, you would think if the killer took the time to either kill or dump them where they were found, he would have taken the time to try to conceal the bodies to prevent discovery. MOO

 

[otto]

Has LE ever disclosed the cause of death? Also, you would think if the killer took the time to either kill or dump them where they were found, he would have taken the time to try to conceal the bodies to prevent discovery. MOO

There's cause and manner. I think cause is homicide, and manner is either undetermined, or it is determined and has not been released to the public.

The killer did attempt to conceal the bodies. He placed each of them in a shallow ditch in an area where the water levels rise enough to place the area where bones were found under water. Fortunately, their bones had not been scattered by a high river. The area is well known for washed out bridges due to high water levels ... the Seven Bridges Bridge was washed out wasn't it ... was it 2009, 2006?? The killer tried to conceal the bodies. We can't forget that their bodies were found in an abandoned park, now a seasonal hunting ground, 20 miles from the abduction site.

When hunting season started, hunters were asked to keep their eyes open for the missing girls ... and they did ... and their remains were identified.

It's well known that after 4, 24, and 48 hours chances are pretty much zero that the victim is still alive. The day that the girls vanished, they were last seen by grandma at 12:15PM. At 1PM she became worried. At 3:58PM, the bikes were located. Although the crime scene opened the question of whether the children had drowned, they were most likely murdered, or almost murdered, when their bikes were found.

The more time he spent with them, the higher the chance that he would be discovered. Therefore, it would have been swift ... but someone knows that the killer was missing for 3-5 hours on that July 13, 2012.

 

[otto]

Is this they type of boxy white SUV vehicle that police are looking for in connection with the abduction and murder of Elizabeth Collins and Lyric Cook?

On the day that the girls were abducted, a vehicle similar to this was spotted on Arbutus near Lake Avenue, and next to the trees on the East edge of Meyer's Lake Park in Evansdale; a leech infested lake filled with household appliances and debris. How could anyone think that the girls were swimming in that lake? Surely the girls, and everyone else, knew better.

Maybe someone in Waterloo or Evansdale has a relative with a vehicle like this ... someone with this particular vehicle could be an important witness to the abduction of the girls.



It looks a bit like a short-bed Chev double seater truck with a camper top on the back. How many people in Evansdale and Waterloo bought a camper top for their short-back double seater Chev in the three years prior to the murder ... or maybe 5, just to be on the safe side? There's can't be that many.

 

[otto]

This is the highway with the missing Seven Bridges Bridge.



Elizabeth's purse was found 20 feet away from the gate to the drainage ditch, on the water side of the pathway fence ... towards where the white vehicle was reportedly seen. The bikes were found on the trail side of the pathway fence, and the purse was found on the lake side of the fence. Elizabeth had a phone, which she used mostly for games, but it wasn't used.

I suppose the killer could come from any of the towns and cities near Evansdale and 7 Bridge Park, but there's little question about a witness that police want to speak with ... someone who owns a white, boxy, SUV Chev.

Like this:

 

[Figbarinc]

If and when they finally do catch who was responsible for these precious children's death it would be interesting to find out if any theories or information that has been shared here comes close to what actually happened. I would like to know if leo found any dna on the bikes other than the girls? At what stage of decomp were the remains found in? Did they find any clothing with the remains? What stage of insect activity was found by the forensic entomologist? I think the key to help solve the case is for someone to remember how someone was acting the days after their disappearance.

 

[otto]

If and when they finally do catch who was responsible for these precious children's death it would be interesting to find out if any theories or information that has been shared here comes close to what actually happened. I would like to know if leo found any dna on the bikes other than the girls? At what stage of decomp were the remains found in? Did they find any clothing with the remains? What stage of insect activity was found by the forensic entomologist? I think the key to help solve the case is for someone to remember how someone was acting the days after their disappearance.

Absolutely. In all the cases I've mapped, there has not been a single case where a theory posted here actually came true. We have Joran van der Sloot. He is guilty of murder in Aruba; Natalie Holloway, but her body is still missing. If one of the theories had been correct, Joran would have been convicted for her disappearance, and her body would have been found.

Klunder has been ruled out - and we don't know if that's because he has a solid alibi, or if there is DNA from one of the crime scenes that does not match Klunder, but matches another unknown male ... perhaps on a bicycle, perhaps on the remains. Either way, Klunder is out. The person that committed the double murder of Elizabeth and Lyric has not been apprehended ... he's out there, fantasizing about little girls and murder.

Decomp was pretty severe. I posted a formula where you can calculate the number of days until decomposition based on outdoor temperature and time of year ... I don't remember for sure, but I think they were within about 9 days of being little more than bones. We know that their shoes were found, as shoes were used for identification. If the shoes were found, it's likely that the clothing was also found ... however, police searched the roads leading to the park and so ... was clothing tossed out the window as the perp drove home?

 

[otto]

Perhaps the clothing was not used for identification because the clothing had knife cuts, but the manner of death has not been released, and shoes were used for identification.

Another little girl who was abducted one early morning, sexually assaulted, attacked with a knife, and dismembered is Jessica Ridgeway. The convicted murderer in that case held Jessica in his mother's home (crawl space in a split level home) and wanted to conceal her body and his crime. He did so by murdering and dismembering her.

Although her 17 year old murderer took Jessica Ridgeway to his mother's home, she was murdered before the end of the day to conceal the crime.

 

[Grainne Dhu]

I don't like to sprinkle my posts with innuendo or anything, but there are some people's stories that I just don't think hold water. Maybe I'm just too suspicious...

I believe that certain witnesses were wrong but I don't ascribe it to evil motivation.

It has been well established that eyewitness testimony is not very accurate. The less the eyewitness knows about the incident (the identities of the people involved, etc), the more inaccurate their testimony is likely to be. Accuracy also degrades with time, with an amazingly sharp drop-off in just 3 days; even delays as little as 4 hours show significant degradation.

Most significantly, the individual's certainty in their recall tends to rise with time, rather than reflecting the reality that their accuracy is degrading. Just the act of recounting an event to someone else is enough to raise the witness's certainty in the accuracy of their recall, even if their recounting had significant errors in it (there have been all sorts of studies utilising videotape to study this).

It seems to me that in any crime, it is important to divide the leads into two broad categories: those that are highly accurate and those known not to be highly accurate. Things like DNA, videotape and fingerprints go into the first category and any theory of the crime must account for all the highly accurate elements.

Things like eyewitness testimony, polygraphs (don't get me started), fibre and hair evidence, blood spatter analysis, etc, all of which have been well proven not to be reliably accurate should go into the second category. In coming up with a theory of the crime, I think it is important to drop various elements out of this second grouping as a way of checking the theory of the crime. Is the theory of the crime still possible if this first category 2 lead is dropped? What if the second is dropped? Etc.