IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #7

[Sunlight]

Possible scenario:

They decided to be adventurous 12:15 and went to the lake. They dinked around by the shoreline or something (TG passed through, but didn't see them, just the bikes in the trail so he had to swerve)...then they headed back toward home...they realized they forgot the purse and went back to get it (seen by the watering couple)...They parked the bikes this time against the fence...and kablambo something happened, including running or being chased or carried into the woods (dogs tracked them at the shoreline and into the forest)..MOO

 

[Jules71]

Does anyone have a link to the video with the girls riding their bikes? I want to watch it again. Looking at Hollye's map I am not understanding where they were riding their bikes. In the video we see sheds or something directly behind the girls as they are riding by. Can we draw a line on that map to indicate the path they were riding on and the direction they were heading?

https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msi...a9fb56b4658&msa=0&iwloc=0004c4d406effc9c7306f

 

[auntiejoe]

Only information that I have heard regarding the bikes were:

One was a mountain bike.

One bike had a kickstand.

One bike was purple.

That is it - haven't seen any other descriptions of the bikes.

I remember reading that to...

 

[BlueIris]

Keep in mind these are off duty Cedar Rapids police officers who were just there to help in the search and could not and would not have taken a report from TG IMO.

I wasn't aware he talked to off duty cedar rapids pd! That explains a lot! Nice catch thanks!

 

[Sere-nity]

Possible scenario:

They decided to be adventurous 12:15 and went to the lake. They dinked around by the shoreline or something (TG passed through, but didn't see them, just the bikes in the trail so he had to swerve)...then they headed back toward home...they realized they forgot the purse and went back to get it (seen by the watering couple)...They parked the bikes this time against the fence...and kablambo something happened, including running or being chased or carried into the woods (dogs tracked them at the shoreline and into the forest)..MOO

This was similar to my scenario on an older page.

 

[Marilynilpa]

Does anyone have a link to the video with the girls riding their bikes? I want to watch it again. Looking at Hollye's map I am not understanding where they were riding their bikes. In the video we see sheds or something directly behind the girls as they are riding by. Can we draw a line on that map to indicate the path they were riding on and the direction they were heading?

https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msi...a9fb56b4658&msa=0&iwloc=0004c4d406effc9c7306f

Someone has probably posted this already, but here's a link to the video:

http://www.whbf.com/category/190186/cbs4qccom-video

 

[Jules71]

Does anyone have a link to the video with the girls riding their bikes? I want to watch it again. Looking at Hollye's map I am not understanding where they were riding their bikes. In the video we see sheds or something directly behind the girls as they are riding by. Can we draw a line on that map to indicate the path they were riding on and the direction they were heading?

https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msi...a9fb56b4658&msa=0&iwloc=0004c4d406effc9c7306f

Found the video.

http://www.kgan.com/shared/newsroom/top_stories/videos/kfxa_vid_12072.shtml

 

[cluciano63]

I have a couple of questions regarding abductions in general and I can't seem to find a credible link for stats:

In what % of child abductions does the abductor cross state lines (to keep/murder their victims)?

Are there statistics of how long before a "typical" (if there is one) abductor will wait before they do murder their victim (if indeed they do)? Does it typically happen within hours, days, weeks?

How often does LE find the victim literally within the same vicinity...say 10 miles from the abduction location?

I'm just trying to get an idea of where the search should be and what the odds are that they are still alive?

Thank you in advance to anyone who can point me in the direction for these answers.

All cases are different of course... I am not sure there is really a pattern in these cases. And then of course, there are so many who have yet to be found; Kyron, Ayla, Haleigh, Lisa, Baby Joshua, Isabel, etc...some if not all of those have parental involvement suspected.

The stats are not good, though, for girls in this age group, as far as I can recall. But again...it all depends upon the why, first of all. If they were taken for sexual abuse, then no, I don't think their chances of coming home are very good.

 

[boomer1]

I am new to the board as a member but have followed the posts. I have a question that could have been addressed but that I may have missed (forgive me if this has been clarified). In earlier threads it was discussed that TG initially called his daughter about the bikes - is this correct since this is where the 12:27 is coming from and the report of seeing bikes at 12:20? Why make a call to say "hey - I saw 2 bike laying on the bike trail today?" After reading through all of the initial posts it is my understanding that this is what happened - I certainly could have misunderstood reports as they have been all over the place with theories, facts and minimal information. I am in no way stating that the information provided was false - just merely a simple question based on my own personal opinion.

 

[GGE]

I am wondering- if the girls were taken from somewhere else- HOW did the perp(s) dump the bikes in that location which seems to be difficult to get to and the chances of people riding around high enough?
How would they GET the bikes there?

SBM / BBM - I thought that maybe if they were abducted from somewhere else, the bikes could've been grabbed by some 'bad kids' and ridden to the lake along with the purse - then purse gone thru, and tossed, and bikes left behind by these imaginary 'bad kids' who, adrenaline rush gone and nothing of value found, decide better than to keep their 'found' bikes.

 

[JaimeInLA]

I am new to the board as a member but have followed the posts. I have a question that could have been addressed but that I may have missed (forgive me if this has been clarified). In earlier threads it was discussed that TG initially called his daughter about the bikes - is this correct since this is where the 12:27 is coming from and the report of seeing bikes at 12:20? Why make a call to say "hey - I saw 2 bike laying on the bike trail today?" After reading through all of the initial posts it is my understanding that this is what happened - I certainly could have misunderstood reports as they have been all over the place with theories, facts and minimal information. I am in no way stating that the information provided was false - just merely a simple question based on my own personal opinion.

No, he said his call was unrelated to the bikes.

 

[susan1215]

How can the LE say they are alive when they don't have anyone in custody responsible for taking the girls or the girls themselves? If they are taken by a stanger (more than likey for sexual purposes) then odds aren't in their favor. I know they are talking alot to the families and giving them poloygraphs but I don't see a family member being responsible as from what I know there aren't any custody issues as I think both girls parents are together.

 

[katydid23]

I am new to the board as a member but have followed the posts. I have a question that could have been addressed but that I may have missed (forgive me if this has been clarified). In earlier threads it was discussed that TG initially called his daughter about the bikes - is this correct since this is where the 12:27 is coming from and the report of seeing bikes at 12:20? Why make a call to say "hey - I saw 2 bike laying on the bike trail today?" After reading through all of the initial posts it is my understanding that this is what happened - I certainly could have misunderstood reports as they have been all over the place with theories, facts and minimal information. I am in no way stating that the information provided was false - just merely a simple question based on my own personal opinion.

:welcome: to WS.

I think it was reported that the call was not in relation to the bikes. He was making a call anyway, and that is how he was able to later estimate the time he saw the bikes, because he knew he had made a call just after seeing them.

 

[Jax49]

I am new to the board as a member but have followed the posts. I have a question that could have been addressed but that I may have missed (forgive me if this has been clarified). In earlier threads it was discussed that TG initially called his daughter about the bikes - is this correct since this is where the 12:27 is coming from and the report of seeing bikes at 12:20? Why make a call to say "hey - I saw 2 bike laying on the bike trail today?" After reading through all of the initial posts it is my understanding that this is what happened - I certainly could have misunderstood reports as they have been all over the place with theories, facts and minimal information. I am in no way stating that the information provided was false - just merely a simple question based on my own personal opinion.

He called his daughter about something other than the bikes. When he found out about the girls he used his call to his daughter to estimate when he saw the bikes. IIRC

 

[Sunlight]

It has been my understanding, but I can't source it, that the phone call to the daughter was not regarding the bikes...it was just a call made on a cell phone from a gas station that recorded the time of the call and that the 12:20 time was a "backed-time", trying to take into account travel time from the trail to the station in order to try to pinpoint the time the bikes were seen. Moo

 

[nervous_nellie]

How can the LE say they are alive when they don't have anyone in custody responsible for taking the girls or the girls themselves? I know they are talking alot to the families and giving them poloygraphs but I don't see a family member being responsible as from what I know there aren't any custody issues as I think both girls parents are together.

i think this statement of "still being alive" is just an automatic thing in these cases...especially when the "we have no evidence to think they are not alive"...jmo as soon as i hear that one i start feeling discouraged...evidence of absence is not absence of evidence - they just havent found it yet...found anything either way. im still hoping they are going to crack this one soon...

 

[GGE]

I have a couple of questions regarding abductions in general and I can't seem to find a credible link for stats:

In what % of child abductions does the abductor cross state lines (to keep/murder their victims)?

Are there statistics of how long before a "typical" (if there is one) abductor will wait before they do murder their victim (if indeed they do)? Does it typically happen within hours, days, weeks?

How often does LE find the victim literally within the same vicinity...say 10 miles from the abduction location?

I'm just trying to get an idea of where the search should be and what the odds are that they are still alive?

Thank you in advance to anyone who can point me in the direction for these answers.

This extremely comprehensive government report (which takes a minute to download/display) is well worth a read, IMHO. I found it disturbing of course, but educational.

This suggests the time span between Victim Last Seen and Murder is less than 24 hours in all but 3.6% of included cases in this study (116 cases were included I believe).

This study also notes that in 30% of cases, it occurs within the first 30 minutes after Abduction, and also states that the time between Victim Last Seen and Abduction is generally less than 30 minutes (statistically).

http://www.atg.wa.gov/uploadedFiles...)/Child_Abduction_Murder_Research/CMIIPDF.pdf

As for your other question, this says that, statistically speaking (numbers in the report), bodies are found 1.5 - 12 miles from Victim Last Seen area most often. Second most often is More Than 12 Miles.

hope this helps!

 

[palaminodee]

I tend to agree with sunlight's theory they were at the lake and possibly TG did not see them, and later returned to the bike and were abducted. That would explain the dog scent from the bikes to the wooded path area where they were abducted and assist with the time frame.

Otherwise it would be more far fetched for the abductor to drive the girls and the bikes to the grassy wooded path and make the girls walk their bikes to the path or fence area...depending on who came upon the bikes. (We're not sure if they truly were dumped in the path or if someone moved them to the fence.)

Possible, but much more difficult to pull this off...?

If threatening one of the girls or a family member with harm, I would think you would get the girls to do as told.

 

[boomer1]

thank you for the clarification - the very early posts made it hard to determine why the call was made. I will go back and read them again.

 

[GrainneDhu]

Chief Deputy Rick Abben may be "ignoring" the 12:27 pm witness because there may be some uncertainty to his statement. For instance, he may not have been able to describe the bicycles well enough for LE to feel confident that it was the girls' bikes he saw.

Another reason may be because LE doesn't want people to close up the possible timeframe too soon. For instance, even if TG saw the girls' bikes, that doesn't mean they didn't come back in a few minutes, decide to ride the bike trail loop again and come to misfortune on the second loop.

Another reason may be that Chief Deputy Abben may not be heavily involved in the investigation. In my Iowa county, there is the sheriff (elected position) and then three chief deputies under him, each one responsible for a different department. As I recall, it's something like Investigations, Highway Patrol and Emergency Operations.

I can see a lot of benefits to putting someone who is not closely involved with the investigation out there as spokesperson. It would mean they aren't pulling someone from the investigation; it would make it less likely for the spokesperson to reveal or confirm information LE wants kept secret; it would give the actual lead investigator more privacy in public.