Someone with a reason to be there is most likely, but also someone who has had reason to be there and is familiar with the area as a result. I know I’m beating a dead horse with this comparison, but that’s what happened with Vanessa Marcotte. Guy came back to the middle of nowhere and attacked her on his day off. He’d probably seen her jogging in the past and figured he might encounter her again the evening of the crime. I’m not saying it’s likely that happened here, but that’s a perfect example of how a similar scenario could play out.