Found Deceased IA - Mollie Tibbetts, 20, Poweshiek County, 19 Jul 2018 #31

[Hte2w8]

A pet peeve of mine - and I’m not pointing fingers at you or anyone else in particular - is that Occam’s Razor cannot be invoked at any point that wasn’t already reached via this same principle. You can’t come up with some wild starting point then throw in Occam’s Razor to validate the next step. That happens all too often and it bugs me to no end!

Agreed and Understood, which is why the beginning starts with what is known... Mollie is missing.
I would love for the simplest theory to be wrong in this case.

 

[jillycat]

Is it possible that her perp. got an idea from her tweet, since anyone can read her tweets....That life imitating tweet is too strange.

I don't think that people who abduct others need inspiration. After years on Twitter, her tweet is not remarkable to me. JMO

 

[Copper]

I am not surprised LE is not conducting searches right now. It makes sense to wait until later in the year after crops have been harvested, ground cover has thinned out, and hunters are crawling around fields and timber.

 

[zecats]

Angela G Hatlai1, or use a syringe on her. Inject her with something. Not sure how easy it would be to get a syringe. I know drug users can get them easily. I know when I was pregnant I used syringes for Heparin. If someone had access to something like that (the syringes) somehow and then the medicine (not sure how they would come across that) to subdue someone (like in the movie Dexter) that would be pretty easy.

My daughter's cat needed insulin shots, twice a day. I often gave them while daughter was away. Lots of needles on hand and available.

 

[Suglo]

KCRG-TV9

Anyone else listened to this? I know that all families respond differently but the way that dad is talking about this case is SO WEIRD. I also feel like the continued use of the phrase “bring Mollie home” is strange. Is this the phrase that is always used in cases like this? It reeks of knowledge that they know where she is and what her situation is yet, for some reason, cannot get to her, which I know is not the likely scenario. The dad says “the more they learned from LE, the more encouraged they became that this will have a positive outcome.” And he says that he feels sad that she’ll be missing this semester.... not sad that they don’t know where she is or what’s happened to her or that the rest of her life is affected by this... I understand being hopeful that she’s ok and not giving up hope, but it really seems as though they are not considering at all the possibility that something bad is going on..... A lot of strange things with her disappearance but the lack of emotion and urgency after the first week is mind boggling.

I think there is still a lot of shock and disbelief. I also think that LE isn’t telling them much which perpetuates that disbelief. They want and need to have hope in order to get through the day.

 

[cujenn81]

<broken quote>

I'm also at a loss as to why LE would shut down the searching so early on in the investigation. I initially thought it might be because LE had a strong suspect and they worried the searches might provoke him into moving her to another location. I no longer believe this to be the case... but I just can't think of any logical reason that would explain why they aren't conducting active searches.

ETA: I have no idea what I'm doing with the new WS format. I'm so used to Tapatalk and convinced I will forever be adapting to this new layout. My apologies, in advance.

 

[zecats]

Occam’s razor (also known as the ‘law of parsimony’) is a problem-solving principle which serves as a useful mental model. A philosophical razor is a tool used to eliminate improbable options in a given situation, of which Occam’s is the best-known example.

Occam’s razor can be summarized as such:

Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

The Basics
In simpler language, Occam’s razor states that the simplest solution is correct. Another good explanation of Occam’s razor comes from the paranormal writer, William J. Hall: ‘Occam’s razor is summarized for our purposes in this way: Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary proof.’

ETA this doesn't mean any particular theory is patently wrong, just that, more often than not, the simplest theory with the most evidence is USUALLY correct... Emphasis mine.

Or Sherlock Holmes, "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." Staying with simplest solution(s)....jmo

 

[Dogmen]

@VeryVeritas,
Agreed, MT’s case is a strange one. Very difficult to read someone’s mind and truly know what’s going on. It can be easy to make wrong assumptions.
Lots of one way avenues like Vimeo, etc. can be used to solve mysteries.
But a direct link to one’s identity can be found with open communication. A single view or code to a single viewer is possible and is done. Can’t block out the possibilities in any case. Finding someone is rare. Especially when they’ve been missing so long, but it’s most certainly possible. Just need to crack the code or at least allow access.
@VeryVeritas

 

[PaulR]

Or Sherlock Holmes, "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." Staying with simplest solution(s)....jmo

The problem is that there are an infinite number of theories and you cannot eliminate all of them.

 

[cluciano63]

A lot of their behaviour is dictated by LE. They would get regular briefings on the case. There is stuff they can't say as it would compromise the case. So if their behaviour seems strange that is one of the reasons.

One thing we have heard in similar cases is that families do NOT get info from LE...which is what is often so frustrating. Especially when they may be looking at people she knows. Jmo it is wrong to assume family knows more than we do, other than maybe her habits and what they believe she would do in a given situation.

 

[Hte2w8]

The problem is that there are an infinite number of theories and you cannot eliminate all of them.

No, but you can eliminate some of them.

 

[Al Hoffman]

My daughter's cat needed insulin shots, twice a day. I often gave them while daughter was away. Lots of needles on hand and available.

A can of starter fluid (ether) and a rag would do just about as well, and only require a stop at NAAPA, a truck stop or an auto parts shop. Just make sure you don't smoke around the stuff.

 

[cluciano63]

I'm also at a loss as to why LE would shut down the searching so early on in the investigation. I initially thought it might be because LE had a strong suspect and they worried the searches might provoke him into moving her to another location. I no longer believe this is the case... and I just can't think of any logical reason that would explain why they aren't conducting active searches.

ETA: I have no idea what I'm doing with the new WS format. I'm so used to Tapatalk and convinced I will forever be adapting to this new layout. My apologies, in advance.

Whoops just this part below is me ...not sure what happened
They claim they searched the entire town (a quote someplace...) but why they have not told people in a larger radius to search their properties is baffling...up to 25 miles even. So much land out there...Marc Klaas once said the world is huge and a person takes up very little space...not an exact quote.

 

[SharonNeedles]

If you look at it mathematically, that Mollie was abducted while out on a run, between 730 and a time later that evening (not disclosed by LE) by someone not necessarily a community member, but familiar with the area, who used a vehicle to transport her someplace within easy driving distance (read a few hours).

Except that Mollie being abducted on her run is already an unlikely occurrence.

 

[rebel123]

I am not surprised LE is not conducting searches right now. It makes sense to wait until later in the year after crops have been harvested, ground cover has thinned out, and hunters are crawling around fields and timber.

I don't think LE gives 'two figs' about crops; if they wanted to mount a search they would go ahead and do it; the farmer is the least of their considerations. It's all about finding Mollie.

 

[cluciano63]

JMO I do not think she was taken more than 30-45 minutes away, at most. Too many things could go “wrong” for a perp, driving with a live person in his vehicle, even if subdued. Pulled over, an accident, she escapes etc...he would get clear of town and houses and find an isolated spot, of which there must be many. JMO

 

[ab01]

I’m still wondering if the locations specified by LE might be more intended to locate somebody leaving town and not necessarily coming into town...

 

[rebel123]

One thing we have heard in similar cases is that families do NOT get info from LE...which is what is often so frustrating. Especially when they may be looking at people she knows. Jmo it is wrong to assume family knows more than we do, other than maybe her habits and what they believe she would do in a given situation.

You only need to listen to the first part of this interview; where he says he doesn't want to compromise the case. For him to say that, he must have some information.
Tibbetts family thinks search is narrowing for Mollie

 

[Suglo]

I’m still wondering if the locations specified by LE might be more intended to locate somebody leaving town and not necessarily coming into town...

Which could also be the reason they stopped the searches. They know she is not in the general vicinity.

 

[NJJohn]

I don't think LE gives 'two figs' about crops; if they wanted to mount a search they would go ahead and do it; the farmer is the least of their considerations. It's all about finding Mollie.

No, it is about the farmer. If you want to search private lands, you need a warrant unless the owner lets you do it voluntarily. You'd like to say the farmers would graciously allow LE to do whatever they need to to find Mollie, but if the searches are invasive and end up destroying crops, that's their livelihood and their family's well-being at stake. It actually does make more sense to wait at this point. Searching fields would be a recovery by now, not a rescue.