Found Deceased IA - Mollie Tibbetts, 20, Poweshiek County, 19 Jul 2018 #31

[MsBetsy]

I'm also at a loss as to why LE would shut down the searching so early on in the investigation. I initially thought it might be because LE had a strong suspect and they worried the searches might provoke him into moving her to another location. I no longer believe this to be the case... but I just can't think of any logical reason that would explain why they aren't conducting active searches.

ETA: I have no idea what I'm doing with the new WS format. I'm so used to Tapatalk and convinced I will forever be adapting to this new layout. My apologies, in advance.

I guess it's possible that LE has good reason to believe her body is not in the vicinity. After all, the cell phone pings point to her phone being in the area which has been searched extensively . If the perpetrator disabled or destroyed the cell phone in that area, he would know that police would be searching there, so why leave the body in the same area he knows can be tracked? I know many people feel the body ( if there is a body) will be found in a cornfield in the general area of the ping. But I would think that not likely. Unless this was a hasty last minute decision, I don't think he would leave the body where he left any other evidence.

 

[andalso]

O/T
a broken quote happened somewhere along the way and the quotes from me/cujenn/others are getting jumbled. I notified mods.

 

[Hte2w8]

It’s not likely at all that anybody could abduct her along her route without somebody seeing or hearing something. Anybody familiar with the area would know this and not even consider doing so. The only starting point that seems likely at all is Mollie willingly getting into a car with someone she knows, something that happens every day in this area.

I can see that, and I don't disagree at all, in fact that it's my first inkling as well... But at some point, even if she willingly got into a vehicle, it became an abduction.

 

[ab01]

The problem is still - if that is the simplest solution to a missing persons case, and it usually is, the police check out people she had connections to, witnesses, locals, etc. which we know they've done, and there have been no arrests or charges. The probability increases as time goes on and the police find nothing when looking at the "usual suspects" that it is no longer the simplest solution

Sometimes it comes down to simply circling back and reinterviewing ppl and analyzing something they may have missed. Just bc time has went on by no means does that indicate it’s not an obvious person that is the abducter. Sometimes ppl are really good liars or they just initially get lucky. But I wouldn’t necessarily infer that it’s the work of a serial killer after 1 mo. JMO and I have no idea if any of it applies to this case. Just speaking from past case I have followed

 

[ab01]

Serious questions...If a group was searching a cornfield, would that in turn destroy the crop? I have never walked into a corn field but I had the feeling corn crops would be fairly resilient to people walking through them. No?

Soybeans somewhat depending how carefull searchers are. Corn absolutely not at all at this time of season. Jmo

 

[str8nightowl]

I mentioned this in another post just sort of stream of thought, but what about the possibility of a electrical co op worker next door waiting inside the house while she jogged? The doors were unlocked, he would know her routine and probably that the BF was gone. Dogs in the basement anyway - maybe she always put them there to run? He could have taken her out the back door and right into his car next door and gone out as normal. That could explain some of the discrepancies about whether she came home or not....she did but was immediately taken. If he got the upper hand quickly by way of surprise there would not be much struggle.

flashy09, I keep thinking maybe the co-op too, but wouldn't that be too risky, especially knowing that you work RIGHT next door? I would think LE would have already investigated all the persons that worked next door at the co-op. UNLESS it was someone working there on a temporary basis or something. Or someone that worked there but was not an employee at that particular co-op (maybe another location).

 

[MsBetsy]

Whoops just this part below is me ...not sure what happened
They claim they searched the entire town (a quote someplace...) but why they have not told people in a larger radius to search their properties is baffling...up to 25 miles even. So much land out there...Marc Klaas once said the world is huge and a person takes up very little space...not an exact quote.

Somehow my response to this ended up directly after this comment, as a continuation of the post. I tried to fix it but couldn't find what I did wrong.

 

[duster1979]

No, it is about the farmer. If you want to search private lands, you need a warrant unless the owner lets you do it voluntarily. You'd like to say the farmers would graciously allow LE to do whatever they need to to find Mollie, but if the searches are invasive and end up destroying crops, that's their livelihood and their family's well-being at stake. It actually does make more sense to wait at this point. Searching fields would be a recovery by now, not a rescue.

Corn is planted in rows, and an adult can pass between two rows without damaging the corn. And at this point the corn is done growing, so even if you did damage the stalks it wouldn't cause any harm.

Soybeans are planted too close together for a body to be hidden between the plants, so using a drone would make more sense in those fields because a body would be easily visible from the air.

If they're noy searching the fields it's because they don't feel there's any benefit to search the field, not out of any fear of damaging crops.

 

[Jax49]

When I think about abductions in broad daylight I remember Jessica Ridgeway. A short walk in the morning and no one saw anything. moo

bbm

She walked out the door, and she was gone.

The 10-year-old girl with the gap in her front teeth, who liked to play cheerleader and waitress, giggled a lot, loved the color purple and couldn’t wait to be a teenager, was on her way to school, alone.

She was supposed to meet a friend, a boy her age. The 1,000-foot walk down the street to his home should have taken four minutes, maybe five.

But Jessica Ridgeway, bundled against the cold in a black puffy jacket, never arrived.

Jessica Ridgeway: What happened to the Colorado girl? – The Denver Post

 

[Hanoi2009]

Occam’s razor (also known as the ‘law of parsimony’) is a problem-solving principle which serves as a useful mental model. A philosophical razor is a tool used to eliminate improbable options in a given situation, of which Occam’s is the best-known example.

Occam’s razor can be summarized as such:

Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected.

The Basics
In simpler language, Occam’s razor states that the simplest solution is correct. Another good explanation of Occam’s razor comes from the paranormal writer, William J. Hall: ‘Occam’s razor is summarized for our purposes in this way: Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary proof.’

ETA this doesn't mean any particular theory is patently wrong, just that, more often than not, the simplest theory with the most evidence is USUALLY correct... Emphasis mine.

Super interesting. My heart-of-hearts theory is, unfortunately, the simplest.

 

[zecats]

The problem is still - if that is the simplest solution to a missing persons case, and it usually is, the police check out people she had connections to, witnesses, locals, etc. which we know they've done, and there have been no arrests or charges. The probability increases as time goes on and the police find nothing when looking at the "usual suspects" that it is no longer the simplest solution

I don't know if I believe it's the simplest solution to every missing person case. There a several missing hiker cases on WS that I'm following and that's not a conclusion I would make about them. Using the known, the surroundings and what the experts are saying, whether directly or indirectly, in any missing person case is something to be considered for sure.

 

[PaulR]

They claim they searched the entire town (a quote someplace...) but why they have not told people in a larger radius to search their properties is baffling...up to 25 miles even. So much land out there...Marc Klaas once said the world is huge and a person takes up very little space...not an exact quote.

A 25 mile radius circle around the town would be 1963 square miles or 1.25 million acres.

 

[ab01]

Corn is planted in rows, and an adult can pass between two rows without damaging the corn. And at this point the corn is done growing, so even if you did damage the stalks it wouldn't cause any harm.

Soybeans are planted too close together for a body to be hidden between the plants, so using a drone would make more sense in those fields because a body would be easily visible from the air.

If they're noy searching the fields it's because they don't feel there's any benefit to search the field, not out of any fear of damaging crops.

You’d be surprised how much canopy cover there is in 15” row planted soybeans. 2-3’ feet tall with leafs on the top, lots of room underneath.

 

[1987]

KCRG-TV9

Anyone else listened to this? I know that all families respond differently but the way that dad is talking about this case is SO WEIRD. I also feel like the continued use of the phrase “bring Mollie home” is strange. Is this the phrase that is always used in cases like this? It reeks of knowledge that they know where she is and what her situation is yet, for some reason, cannot get to her, which I know is not the likely scenario. The dad says “the more they learned from LE, the more encouraged they became that this will have a positive outcome.” And he says that he feels sad that she’ll be missing this semester.... not sad that they don’t know where she is or what’s happened to her or that the rest of her life is affected by this... I understand being hopeful that she’s ok and not giving up hope, but it really seems as though they are not considering at all the possibility that something bad is going on..... A lot of strange things with her disappearance but the lack of emotion and urgency after the first week is mind boggling.

I am probly going to get my head bit off but...what I am typing is not to put MT down. a pregnancy can topple a woman's world upside down. I wont go into the who and when and with who this suggestion has gone in earlier by other posters, but if july was about the time it couldn't be hidden any more then this semester would give enough time for that to all be resolved IF that was the case. wouldn't be the first to flip everything in their life upside down over it and beyond that wouldn't be the first time a woman has met with foul play over it either IF that is the case. I know it is 2018 and isn't nearly the big deal it use to be, that is easy to say sitting in front of our computers, that might be harder if you were judgeing yourself and if you felt like you had everyone's faith tied up in your education. I have no idea how likely, but no less likely than anything else with no info.

 

[Kapua]

a user here - forget the name- has this in their profile so every time i see him post i think about this. so, in regards to Mollie what IS the simplest solution?

The simplest solution that anyone can design right now would have to be based on the limited facts that we have and MSM/eyewitness reports that may or may not be accurate. For example, did the eyewitness actually see her jog by that Wednesday? Maybe he was mistaken and he actually saw her Tuesday. Was Mollie going to return to DJ's house, or swing by her mom's for dinner, pick up the car and THEN go back to DJ's? Logically, why would you go east and then backtrack to go west and then north? But maybe that was something she normally did, or maybe she changed it up because she was house/dog sitting. So I think there are multiple simple solutions that align with the facts at this point. And what I think is simplest may not be what you think is simplest. And if Mollie's mother wasn't 100% clear if Mollie planned to drop by for dinner, I can't be 100% clear, either.

 

[ab01]

Also just for reference corn is generally planted in 30” rows and soybeans are planted in 15”. Some people plant corn and beans both in 20” rows, but it’s not nearly as common. FWIW

 

[str8nightowl]

Good point. I believe the truck stop was for a fuel up, then on to Brooklyn.

Trident, I keep thinking if this guy was at the truck stop they would have caught him if he used a credit card. They could have also caught him if he used cash. If he used cash he would have had to go inside to pay and most of these places (especially truck stops) have cameras, so they would have gotten a close up of his face (some have cameras inside too). However, I wonder if he could have had one of those cards you buy at Wal-mart and he could have put it under a fake name so he wouldn't be traced. Not sure if you can do that or not. I am thinking when you log in online to get access to those cards you have put in all your information for the card, including your social security number, so it would be hard to enter all the information and get access under a fake name. I would think this perp (if he didn't want to be caught) would have NEVER even gotten gas at the truck stop if he was smart enough. If he HAD I am sure LE would already have at least what he looked like or what his vehicle looked like by now and released that information. UNLESS he used someone else's credit card (but that would also be far fetched--unless he had stolen someone's credit card--that would be the ONLY way they wouldn't be able to track him). I would think late at night (if he did fuel up at night) there would be less customers there at the truck stop (but maybe not since it is a truck stop and a lot of people stop there when there is no other gas station open at night--but I would still think there would be very few customers at night) which would mean the employees would have been more likely to remember who they saw in that time frame. I am thinking LE is just HOPING that maybe the perp stopped at the truck stop for some reason and they can get a lead that way, and that's why they have marked it on the map. I have a feeling the perp never stopped at the truck stop.

 

[jillycat]

I think Occam's Razor is often overdone in these cases. We always hear, "What are the chances of it being some stranger predator", yet, Mickey Shunick, Hannah Graham, Karina Vetrano, Vanessa Marcotte, and so many many more (likely including the Delphi & Evansdale murders). There were three murders of opportunity in my town within 9 months, all women, two by the same person who did not know the victims and likely would have continued to kill, and one that remains unsolved and was done by someone spine-chillingly unhinged and it's unlikely he (she) knew the victim.

I don't think this has to be someone who knew or met Mollie, stalked her, watched her for a time, or had an axe to grind for her disappearance to make sense, and as many have pointed out, the closer (in relationship) any perpetrator may have been to her, the more likely LE would/might have someone in custody by now.

 

[Hanoi2009]

I wonder if this is why mom has taken a back seat to dad. Maybe it is harder for her to maintain the facade if she knows what LE knows. You have to feel for the family - it must be horrible.

 

[Al Hoffman]

Physical evidence deteriorates, so finding a body sooner is better than later. I can't see destroying entire fields of crops when there is no reason to think she is in a cornfield.

...and the FBI is only going to pay for (or participate in) tearing up a corn field if they are sure there is something there. They embarrised the agency by draining a lake/pond looking for evidence in the Anthrax mailings. The FBI is not going to repeat that mistake!