ID - 4 University of Idaho Students Murdered - Moscow # 10

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This is not my theory (I don’t actually have one at this time as there just isn’t enough information available to the public for me to form one atm) but I just wanted to point out that, statistically, women are 2x more likely to commit murder via stabbing than men.

I personally believe the perp(s) is male, as 90% of all murders are committed by men. But it’s not impossible that a female could have done this. I’ve linked below a link to in-depth statistical data that LE uses when building profiles. It IS outdated but I can’t find a newer one that is as comprehensive.

 
Really good theories discussed here.

I think the following 4 things make this case unusual and would need to be accounted for in a theory. (There are likely other factors but these 4 stood out to me).

1. The amount of physical exertion required to kill the first 2 people with a knife with repeated stabbing, hold onto the knife despite the extensive amount of blood, and then go and do it again with 2 more people.
[[ I think for the average person this is really over the top and stand by the idea that if this is one person he is fairly strong physically. The presence of two killers could help explain this part though if one person attacked each room .]]

2. The very disturbing psychology needed to do #1. Predatory. Callous. Determined. Narcissistic. Accustomed to the thought and act of violence.
[[ This really narrows down the % of people who could do this. Many people are killed by their significant other (sadly) but it is not in a typical person's psychology to kill 4 people especially with a knife which requires a lot of up close physical contact. If one girl rejected him (for example) and he killed 4 people as a result he is deeply narcissistic ]]

3. Doing all this without waking the roommates downstairs, without being clearly identified after the fact
[[ this to me speaks to a predatory nature. I think it's someone who would also hunt. Someone who enjoys plotting and watching. Who would plan all of this out, think ahead, be able to be fairly quiet. Comfortable using what is likely a hunting knife. ]]]

4. The fact that no one (to our knowledge) has come forward
[[ this one is also disturbing. Almost everyone is a part of a social circle even peripherally. Even the Unabomber was turned in by his brother. The longer this goes the smaller I think this person's circle would be and the more likely he is isolated. If not he would have reintegrated into daily life and not give himself away which is actually pretty hard. Most people would notice someone gone at 4am or see something suspicious in their behavior in the days after. Otherwise he would have to be someone who could disappear and not be missed. In many cases its the social circle of this person however peripheral who may be the key. ]]]

These 4 things are unusual, different from the Dateline episode type killing of a person by their significant other. I really don't believe that an average college student would have all 4 of these things covered. The amount of blood, the psychological horror of it, the physicality of it, the potential for adrenaline to lead to mistakes, the reintegration into their social circle could all lead to being caught.

All that being said I'm going with male older than college age , hunter, single, estranged from people. He either could disappear and no one would notice or people in his life already think he is odd so wouldn't pick up on additionally odd behavior.

I also don't think targeted means there isn't a threat to the community. He could easily have targeted one or more of the 4 and yet still be a danger if he decides to target someone else. A frightening question is after doing this will he want to do it again? Unfortunately I think it's likely. It's unlikely that a person would do something this extreme and then just walk away.
the only "payoff" for this person was the sense of power in killing- no overt sex, no robbery. That is why I do not think this is more than one person- what relationship would two people doing this have? I think an "accomplice" would have to practically be a hostage to go along. The person has to be able to sneak home and clean up unless the person has a fresh deer on his/her car and can pretend any human blood stains were part of that IMO. I also do not see the person wearing a coverall unless the person has some lab or medical or construction/painting background in which case the person is really odd and has a split (normal) life and abnormal (savage obsession) life. I keep thinking of Delphi- still do not understand the arrested guy's motivation and I probably never will. IMO.
 
I wonder if that assumption/theory is circulating because of E's parents initially saying he'd been found in the hallway, and I suppose naturally then assuming that whatever alerted E also alerted X, so she was awake to fight back when the killet went into her room. It's chilling to even contemplate.

I'm just wondering why it would be let out that the victims died in their beds? Is that a purposeful mislead by LE?
 
It does help in knowing how to handle a slippery knife.
Not much. First, the movements you make while chopping, filleting or dressing are much different than when you stab someone. Very different is the force used, when you dress a deer or make a dish you don't need to pierce as deep as possible through bones and cartilage. Second, there are no magic movements to make slippery handle less slippery. Two things help, keeping your hands as dry as possible and a good handle with surface that limits slippage.
 
I can't strongly recommend enough the book, "The Gift of Fear'. (I linked to the wikipedia because I have zero connection to the book, am not shilling for it.) But the theory that there are clear signs of something wrong/dangerous, pre-incident indicators, is something everyone should learn. I learned a long time ago to not worry about "being rude". When my radar goes off, I am not getting in the elevator, you aren't coming into my house and I feel no pressure to respond to a DM. Trust your instinct, it won't ever let you down. IMO/MOO.

Yes! I can't recommend Gavin deBecker's books enough! When my son was in grade school, the father of one of his classmates started stalking me. He'd show up to our home at any hour of the day or evening. He'd stop his car as I walked along the street. He'd call all the time. I was so frustrated and creeped out I didn't know what to do, so I went to the library, looking for books on how to deal with a stalker. Well, deBecker's tips worked!

We don't know if Kaylee had a stalker. Was she stalked? So many of us out there have stories of experiencing it while others are dead as a result. If you or somebody you know is being harassed or stalked by someone, it's a good idea to take out a copy of The Gift of Fear from your local library and start reading/listening to it.
 
I just can’t figure out why the 2 girls were spared, He must have watched the house, if in fact our speculation is correct, He Would know how many people lived there, Maybe The surging girls had the door to bedroom locked I guess L.E will have an answer For this, but I think we got it right, It’s the only logical explanation for such a brutal crime that from what I am understanding such a brutal crime that even some of L.E May have needed counseling There’s no way this was a psychopath that picked a rad on house and just decided to butcher a bunch of people
I really think it could be that simple—the roommates were spared due to locked doors and the killer needing to get out of there and feeling satisfied with what he had done.
Somebody mentioned several threads back that sometimes killers enjoy being able to decide who lives and who dies. Playing God. Yuck. I cannot get that out of my mind. Horrifying.
 
Not much. First, the movements you make while chopping, filleting or dressing are much different than when you stab someone. Very different is the force used, when you dress a deer or make a dish you don't need to pierce as deep as possible through bones and cartilage. Second, there are no magic movements to make slippery handle less slippery. Two things help, keeping your hands as dry as possible and a good handle with surface that limits slippage.
Agreed for the most part. I do think that someone who is versed in those uses would be more apt than someone who has never used one for work. Practice makes perfect.
 
Another though that occurred to me -- it was likely dark in those bedrooms. The perp would need one hand to hold the knife and the other hand to restrain the victims. Especially in the case of the couple, assuming they were sleeping in the same room and that the boy didn't get up to check on noises. And I agree with Sundaaay, the girls could have fallen asleep in the same room too, as they were both trying to call Jack.

At any rate, how did the killer see what he was doing? Wouldn't he have needed a flashlight? But how could he hold a flashlight and a knife and restrain the victims. Did have one of those flashlight thingies that strap around the head, so you can work on something with two hands?
light could have awakened the victims too so that is why I wonder if the person knew or studied the house
 
I am having such a hard time believing one person did all of this lately! You stab someone multiple times while sleeping - if another is in the room they will wake up! Then you have someone fighting for their life that you have to control with the others in the house ( including other two victims) and risking another victim shouting “Siri call 911” and or causing the perp to end up cutting themselves and other people not waking up and investigating what was happening?!
The attacker has one advantage over a sleepy victim - he is fully alert. Drowsy brain, straight after awakening, has a tendency to process stuff very slow. Add to it a dark room and that's how the situation looks like: the perp stabbed first victim one or two times, maybe even more, the victim moaned, waking another person. That person opens eyes and sees a dark shape hovering over the other side of the bed. The person does not know what is happening and who it is, that gives the attacker enough time to stab the person.
 
Yes! I can't recommend Gavin deBecker's books enough! When my son was in grade school, the father of one of his classmates started stalking me. He'd show up to our home at any hour of the day or evening. He'd stop his car as I walked along the street. He'd call all the time. I was so frustrated and creeped out I didn't know what to do, so I went to the library, looking for books on how to deal with a stalker. Well, deBecker's tips worked!

We don't know if Kaylee had a stalker. Was she stalked? So many of us out there have stories of experiencing it while others are dead as a result. If you or somebody you know is being harassed or stalked by someone, it's a good idea to take out a copy of The Gift of Fear from your local library and start reading/listening to it.
Amazing book
 
If the dog was missing outside they would knock on neighbor doors, or call around, there would be people sighting them walking around outside, in the back yard, in the woods, in the parking lot- along any path they may walk with the dog.
We’ve not heard any of that- but of course it was 2AM
Also, they have a fenced back yard, not Sure how that plays into it.
IMO
I don't believe the girls would have gone to bed with the dog missing. However, the killer might have let the dog out when entering the house (possibly so it wouldn't bark), or killer could have left the door open when they left and the dog ran out.
 
I had some profile thoughts I wanted to put down, mainly so I can reference them again in the future:

- Killer is not a hunter: There is no finesse required here. Stabbing is stabbing. All that's required here is a certain amount of physical fitness. Therefore...

- Killer is younger than 40: After the murders, the killer still had to get away too so that speaks even more to physical ability.

- Killer is a spree killer, not a serial killer: Basically, I am trying to say that the killer has zero moral issues killing again and will do so if presented with an opportunity but does not have the psychopathic need to kill serial killers have.

- Killer is messy: I know this was mentioned before and a big deal was made but this does not mean that there is an abundance of evidence. I mean "messy" in that they did not take their time, did not pose the victims, did not care to send messages, did not stop to plan, did not pick one door over the other because of some overarching plan, but rather found an opening, went from murder to murder and was out of there. Again, people seem to connect "messy" with "a ton of evidence at the scene" and this is absolutely not the case.

Thanks for reading and, as always, this is MOO. I appreciate having a sounding board to reference in the future.
 
the only "payoff" for this person was the sense of power in killing- no overt sex, no robbery. That is why I do not think this is more than one person- what relationship would two people doing this have? I think an "accomplice" would have to practically be a hostage to go along. The person has to be able to sneak home and clean up unless the person has a fresh deer on his/her car and can pretend any human blood stains were part of that IMO. I also do not see the person wearing a coverall unless the person has some lab or medical or construction/painting background in which case the person is really odd and has a split (normal) life and abnormal (savage obsession) life. I keep thinking of Delphi- still do not understand the arrested guy's motivation and I probably never will. IMO.
The only “payoff” for this perp is feeling better. HE feels better He and he alone because this was all about him
 
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Kaylee having a stalker has been the rumblings around the web since early on. It always rang true to me and makes the most sense. I would bet my right arm it has nothing to do with her boyfriend and it’s this local stalker.

Please read the first comment after this article from the Washington Post.

No comments there.
Ethan was a big athletic young man. The killer felt he could kill him.

A strong , buff killer?
 
What is everyone’s best current theory as of now?

I haven't ruled out someone completely random, but I think it is one male, slightly older than them, someone who either knew, at least peripherally, or had seen either Kaylee or Maddie and had become fixated on her or them. I'm thinking a socially awkward male who, for lack of a better description, was physically maybe a 3 or 4, but fantasized about having a 10. He may have stalked online social media accounts, and may have actually interacted with one of them, very briefly, and felt that he was either blown off or otherwise disrespected, or was unnoticed altogether. JMO
 
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I am wondering about the dog. Was dog there the whole time (until that evening), where was the dog when the other house mates called 911, where was the dog when LE arrived and how was the dogs behavior? Again, was he there while everyone from LE was coming in and out of the house? Or did he just all of a sudden show up? If he was there, was there any possibility that he may have bitten the intruder? One would expect a dog to bark when an unknown person enters the house or room they are in. Where did he usually sleep when he stayed at the house? There just seems to be a lot of unknowns about the dog that may actually help provide some information. Did they swab his teeth for any potential human DNA?

Another question, did they have any hide a keys outside the house (pretty common for college kids to have)? Or had anyone lost a key recently? AND/OR are the locks changed each year? If there is a hide a key for front door someone could have gone in earlier and opened sliding door on the second level.
The house had a lock with a code. No key needed
 
The perp who did this is going to have a hard time moving forward. He is going to have to self monitor everything he says and does-basically lie-until he slips up and hopefully someone gets it
IMO the perp is not having a hard time at all. They are probably still "high" from. the act. I would not be surprised if the perp is actually walking around with a smile on their face. If anything I would be looking for someone who is generally in an unhappy/sad state, but now has good spirits.
I believe the perp is 30-45, not ex military, and a job that involves being outdoors and may travel for work.
I believe this was an organized killer. I think nothing stands out about the perp. Easily fits in with others and has a social circle, not a loner but not outgoing personality wise.
All just my thoughts. I really don't think they are a homeless, addict, loner creepy person. The longer there is no POI just reinforces my opinions.
 
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