ID - 4 University of Idaho Students Murdered - Moscow # 28

[Charlot123]

This isn't like getting paternity results, though.

This is a crime scene with the DNA of at least 6 people who were either victims or who lived in the house. Then, there are the friends who came to help the two young women who lived on the first floor. And that's just the beginning.

Find the perp's DNA in this house is going to take time and correlation between multiple bits of DNA (some of it incomplete) and specific locations in the house. They need to find, as an archaeologist would, the top layers of touch DNA that are in the two murder rooms, then attempt to reconstruct it, as it's unlikely that they will get lots of complete "hits" from touch DNA - but the human genome is well known and they can piece together a DNA profile to then run through various databases.

This takes time. And to avoid confirmation bias, it should involve several different lab workers.

How would the FBI gain a profile on this "If I can't have her" person, given that K is no longer alive? How would this man stand out from all the other men who'd been to parties in that house or met any one of the occupants elsewhere?

With paternity tests, you test a specific person against another person's (the baby's) DNA. Two complete profiles to run against each other. That is not the case here.

I just hope that when they are looking for this “if I can’t have her” person, they are not discarding women as well. All the more so that we don’t know about the real target.

 

[cottonweaver]

"When does a DNA mixture become too complex to reliably interpret at all? Currently, there are no established standards for deciding this. Different labs have different protocols. When confronted with a particularly complex DNA mixture, some labs will try to interpret it and others won’t.'

article on

Why are complex DNA mixtures difficult to interpret?​

DNA Mixtures: A Forensic Science Explainer

What are DNA mixtures? And why are they sometimes so difficult to interpret?

www.nist.gov

 

[OrangeRhyme]

This isn't like getting paternity results, though.

This is a crime scene with the DNA of at least 6 people who were either victims or who lived in the house. Then, there are the friends who came to help the two young women who lived on the first floor. And that's just the beginning.

Find the perp's DNA in this house is going to take time and correlation between multiple bits of DNA (some of it incomplete) and specific locations in the house. They need to find, as an archaeologist would, the top layers of touch DNA that are in the two murder rooms, then attempt to reconstruct it, as it's unlikely that they will get lots of complete "hits" from touch DNA - but the human genome is well known and they can piece together a DNA profile to then run through various databases.

This takes time. And to avoid confirmation bias, it should involve several different lab workers.

How would the FBI gain a profile on this "If I can't have her" person, given that K is no longer alive? How would this man stand out from all the other men who'd been to parties in that house or met any one of the occupants elsewhere?

With paternity tests, you test a specific person against another person's (the baby's) DNA. Two complete profiles to run against each other. That is not the case here.

I would look at anyone who was viewing her social media frequently. She has lots of photos on Instagram and Facebook. Its probably not that long of a list. Maybe check anyone using hidden methods to view her socials recently.

55% of women are killed by a current or ex partner. This is a very short list.

If a murder victim is female, 13% is by a stranger. So again this list is just a few 100 I guess.

 

[Charlot123]

Which could mean kg was not the target?

25% chance it was KG. Did the police tell us who was the target? I haven’t heard it.

 

[Walela]

Yeah I'm not buying it. They've had over a month and massive resources available. The DNA is surely processed by now, and it's either inconclusive or there is no match. The police may have some theories, but the trail has gone cold and they are hoping for a miracle.

I'll bet the killer is hoping you're right. I doubt very seriously any of us know which test results they have back and which ones they don't and because LE doesn't alert the media as to what they haven't done doesn't mean they haven't done it. There is so much more to forensic testing than a DNA profile. There's hair and fiber, shoe print, finger print, blood splatter to name a few. There's probably more that I know nothing of that are run and some may need to be run twice for verification by different labs which takes extra time. Some things take time and it's not because they weren't expedited, just like some forensic toxicology tests take 6 weeks to actually get a result. And as far as expediting tests, who's to say that one test is more important than another. If you were waiting for results from a test to identify the killer of your family member, would you want to be bumped out of line for someone else? I personally would not want to be the person that had to make an expediting decision.

 

[Charlot123]

Im no expert but from what I read separating 2 dna samples from each other is difficult and extremely time consuming. Would a usable dna profile be done by now?

Maybe not because there have to be different samples, from different areas.

 

[10ofRods]

I just hope that when they are looking for this “if I can’t have her” person, they are not discarding women as well. All the more so that we don’t know about the real target.

They won't discard any DNA in this case and there will be two main folders: victims' DNA and everyone else.

I just hope they have some DNA that isn't mostly disintegrated - because everyone has an X chromosome in the 23rd position, and one X chromosome in that position is not evidence of either a man or a woman - just a person.

 

[Mad Hettie]

I wonder what their WHOLE social group knows and why LE keeps saying they’re focused on the investigation, not the activities.

They say it twice here:

Moscow Homicide Update - December 6, 2022

MOSCOW, Idaho – The Moscow Police Department is providing the following information to update the public on the known facts surrounding the four murders that occurred on November 13th in Moscow, Idaho.

www.ci.moscow.id.us

 

[SuziQ]

Asking for info on the white car shows desperation.
They probably knew about that car from very early, like the first week.

They may not have analysed every single bit of DNA but all the obvious stuff like touch DNA on the victims, doorknobs, doors, windows, lightswitches has been analysed.
Likewise all the blood evidence.

If the perp wore gloves, didn't cut himself, didn't struggle with any of the victims, and didnt rape or sexually assault anyone, then where's the DNA coming from!?
It's possible a hair follicle fell from his head but that's it.

So I think they've nothing except the white car passing a Ring camera.

You could add spit and sweat into that. Imo.

Just to add some of my thoughts not connected to your post. Even if they do have stranger DNA. Who do they compare that with? That house had a lot of people going in and out. There is a lot of elimination that will need to happen. That will take time. Blood DNA will most likely belong to the perp, so that would narrow down the suspect pool. Again that has to be compared to someone. That will take time to find those people to do a DNA match on. I'm going to guess that most of the public are not in a DNA base anywhere. So that limits what having the DNA will accomplish. Now they are back to finding a suspect to compare DNA with.

I think the usual suspects, in cases like this, have been ruled out, if there is stranger DNA, that is. As much as they can be for now.

Imo, DNA is much better at prosecuting people than finding them in the first place.

IMO.

 

[Charlot123]

I suddenly got a “dog question”.

We don’t know if M was in another room, or maybe downstairs, but imagine a not impossible situation with a perpetrator, actually, liking animals. They could have taken M to another room, or simply patted it. Leaving touch DNA on the dog.

In short, I hope LE did try to lift touch DNA from a dog collar or his fir. In the latter case, it would be the same as lifting DNA from the carpet (I presume), using scotch tape.

Is there a way to lift touch DNA from animal fir?

Why do I think the perp left DNA? They might have thought of everything, but probably, were sweating.

P.S. of course, the scientists tried. I wouldn’t blame LE for not knowing it, though. It hit me on thread 27.

Human DNA collection from police dogs: technique and application - Forensic Science, Medicine and Pathology

Police dogs are routinely deployed during criminal investigations under a variety of circumstances. In instances where police dogs are involved in apprehension of suspects, contact with a suspect may be observed or may occur out of the line of sight. The interactions between suspect and dog may...

link.springer.com

P.S. this article requires purchasing and I don’t think I need it in the long run but the abstract indicates they are lifting human DNA from canine hair.

Advances in the DNA analysis of canine trace evidence for serious crime investigation in the UK

Non-human evidence is becoming widespread in serious crime investigations. Canine hair samples have proved especially useful due to the high rate of t…

www.sciencedirect.com

 

[OrangeRhyme]

I'll bet the killer is hoping you're right. I doubt very seriously any of us know which test results they have back and which ones they don't and because LE doesn't alert the media as to what they haven't done doesn't mean they haven't done it. There is so much more to forensic testing than a DNA profile. There's hair and fiber, shoe print, finger print, blood splatter to name a few. There's probably more that I know nothing of that are run and some may need to be run twice for verification by different labs which takes extra time. Some things take time and it's not because they weren't expedited, just like some forensic toxicology tests take 6 weeks to actually get a result. And as far as expediting tests, who's to say that one test is more important than another. If you were waiting for results from a test to identify the killer of your family member, would you want to be bumped out of line for someone else? I personally would not want to be the person that had to make an expediting decision.

I mean expedited because they've the FBI helping them. I'm assuming this also means forensics.

Most homicides are handled in state.

I think the case is cold. Take a break from this forum and anywhere else you're following the case as there's no new info and won't be.

 

[10ofRods]

I would look at anyone who was viewing her social media frequently. She has lots of photos on Instagram and Facebook. Its probably not that long of a list. Maybe check anyone using hidden methods to view her socials recently.

55% of women are killed by a current or ex partner. This is a very short list.

If a murder victim is female, 13% is by a stranger. So again this list is just a few 100 I guess.

There were four victims and we don't know how many past partners each of them had (just that K had an ex-boyfriend). It would be very surprising if 20-21 year olds didn't each have a couple of ex's.

The social media part may well provide more breaks in this case than the DNA, frankly. I have no idea how that works, in terms of FBI/the Courts, but I do know that Insta and FB have on occasion given up the IP addresses of all visitors to a particular page (after a judge issues a subpoena of course).

If the murderer does turn out to be someone known to one or more victims, particularly if that person was a recent ex, then that person's DNA has a legitimate reason to be all over the house - making it less valuable unless it can be linked to elements of the actual crime scene (bedding, blood, sliding door, etc)

 

[Zella]

I wonder what their WHOLE social group knows and why LE keeps saying they’re focused on the investigation, not the activities.

They say it twice here:

Moscow Homicide Update - December 6, 2022

MOSCOW, Idaho – The Moscow Police Department is providing the following information to update the public on the known facts surrounding the four murders that occurred on November 13th in Moscow, Idaho.

www.ci.moscow.id.us

It's basically reassurance that they'd rather you come forward with information than sit on something you saw because you were drinking underage or smoking pot. That you're not going to get in trouble because they'd much rather have the information. MOO

 

[IceCreamSundae]

was that white car in the body cam video they asking about?

No, it is not the car in the body cam video.

 

[OrangeRhyme]

You could add spit and sweat into that. Imo.

Just to add some of my thoughts not connected to your post. Even if they do have stranger DNA. Who do they compare that with? That house had a lot of people going in and out. There is a lot of elimination that will need to happen. That will take time. Blood DNA will most likely belong to the perp, so that would narrow down the suspect pool. Again that has to be compared to someone. That will take time to find those people to do a DNA match on. I'm going to guess that most of the public are not in a DNA base anywhere. So that limits what having the DNA will accomplish. Now they are back to finding a suspect to compare DNA with.

I think the usual suspects, in cases like this, have been ruled out, if there is stranger DNA, that is. As much as they can be for now.

Imo, DNA is much better at prosecuting people than finding them in the first place.

IMO.

The genealogy database has solved a few cold cases recently.

 

[Ghostwheel]

Yeah I'm not buying it. They've had over a month and massive resources available. The DNA is surely processed by now, and it's either inconclusive or there is no match. The police may have some theories, but the trail has gone cold and they are hoping for a miracle.

Or they have a match but it was in a place that might have been during the murder and might have been before or after, so need more evidence to link and are still putting it together. Or the DNA is not processed yet. A month is not that long of a time, imo.

They might have some evidence that points them in a direction, but is isn't enough to guarantee a conviction so they are trying to put more together. There are a lot of cases where there was not enough to charge a suspect for murder, LE knew in their gut it was that person so kept on the suspect and usually arrested for something else to get them off the street. Sometimes they eventually got enough to charge with murder later, but not always.

 

[cottonweaver]

If your scenario is accepted, then there should be usable DNA in that spare bedroom.

It's also possible that the extensive look that the investigators (including FBI) took at the backyard could have turned something up (perps sometimes pee or poop while waiting and stalking - dogs can be used to locate human waste of this type; there were dogs at the scene at the end of Week 1, but no word on what type of dog they had come in).

Perps sometimes smoke or eat while waiting, as well (or spit).

I agree that this perp organized his crime to avoid leaving DNA, as much as he could. I pray that the earliest investigators in that house had a really tight protocol. The best scenario would be finding non-victim DNA in one of the victim blood samples (indicating that the perp's body shed some cells as he went about doing his crimes). But if he was wrapped up tight in protective clothing, there might be very little (but he did have to put his gloves on - and he can't do that without touching the gloves - the outside of the gloves would still have some touch DNA, the problem is whether he touched much once he was in the house).

He touched his knife and perhaps some bedding. He took the knife with him - but the bedding remains.

and possibly usable DNA in that bathroom on floor 2.
disrobing in there, after this mass murder would surely release some of his own skin cells, fibres and maybe even hairs ( as well as those of his victims)

 

[OrangeRhyme]

There were four victims and we don't know how many past partners each of them had (just that K had an ex-boyfriend). It would be very surprising if 20-21 year olds didn't each have a couple of ex's.

The social media part may well provide more breaks in this case than the DNA, frankly. I have no idea how that works, in terms of FBI/the Courts, but I do know that Insta and FB have on occasion given up the IP addresses of all visitors to a particular page (after a judge issues a subpoena of course).

If the murderer does turn out to be someone known to one or more victims, particularly if that person was a recent ex, then that person's DNA has a legitimate reason to be all over the house - making it less valuable unless it can be linked to elements of the actual crime scene (bedding, blood, sliding door, etc)

I always assume government agencies like FBI, CIA, NSA can just grab this info and get the warrant after. Maybe I'm just cynical.

<modsnip>

 

[Sundog]

<snipped for focus>
He exited his 2011-2013 white Hyundai Elantra (or walked from a neighboring apartment building

If he walked from a neighboring apartment building, I think he targeted the girls' house.

If he lived in the neighborhood, he saw them frequently either walking the dog or through the windows, or other comings and goings. If that is the case, then the Elantra may be about critical witnesses.

I agree that he was likely physically spent after the murders on the two top floors, and had to get out quickly, he had done what he set out to do anyway, with enough victims behind him to satisfy his rage and resentment. JMO.

 

[SuziQ]

The genealogy database has solved a few cold cases recently.

But how many do they not solve? And how long does it take when they do? My point is DNA may not catch a perp very quickly. But it sure will prosecute them once they do catch them through other means. How do you catch a person with DNA when their DNA is not in a database and their relatives aren't either? And how do you find a random perp, with no known connection to the victims, to test against? Imo.