ID - 4 University of Idaho Students Murdered - Moscow # 28

[TooMuchGun]

That’s a good question. Why wasn’t she hanging out with all her roommates instead of just one

not really in a college house people split up all the time to do things. There was a dance fri so maybe the girls were already tired.

 

[10ofRods]

They've the FBI helping them so all the lab work is done. You can get paternity results in 48 hours commercially.
Digital evidence also has been collected.
I know they need warrants and whatnot but I think everything's been expedited due to severity of crime.

The probability of solving a murder drops rapidly after a few weeks of no arrest.

I think the loner, psycho, stalker, peeping Tom type perp is what this is.

Someone local but peripheral.

I think Kaylee is the type of charismatic, beautiful person who could make a strong impression on someone.

She charmed and enchanted the wrong person. "If I can't have her, no one else can".

The others were just collateral damage.

Maybe the FBI have a list of these type of guys in Moscow or her hometown but they've no evidence on any of them.

This isn't like getting paternity results, though.

This is a crime scene with the DNA of at least 6 people who were either victims or who lived in the house. Then, there are the friends who came to help the two young women who lived on the first floor. And that's just the beginning.

Find the perp's DNA in this house is going to take time and correlation between multiple bits of DNA (some of it incomplete) and specific locations in the house. They need to find, as an archaeologist would, the top layers of touch DNA that are in the two murder rooms, then attempt to reconstruct it, as it's unlikely that they will get lots of complete "hits" from touch DNA - but the human genome is well known and they can piece together a DNA profile to then run through various databases.

This takes time. And to avoid confirmation bias, it should involve several different lab workers.

How would the FBI gain a profile on this "If I can't have her" person, given that K is no longer alive? How would this man stand out from all the other men who'd been to parties in that house or met any one of the occupants elsewhere?

With paternity tests, you test a specific person against another person's (the baby's) DNA. Two complete profiles to run against each other. That is not the case here.

 

[TooMuchGun]

I think they’re getting closer.

Im no expert but from what I read separating 2 dna samples from each other is difficult and extremely time consuming. Would a usable dna profile be done by now?

 

[10ofRods]

Thank you for this!!!!! I that that term floating around is preventing some people from seeing another other alternative.

It floats around because two different local business persons said that LE came into their shops and asked about sales of "Ka-Bar type" knives, and this was reported in more than one newspaper (and those articles are in the first 3 pages, I believe, of the media thread).

So it was the storekeepers who were the purveyors of that information and witnesses to the asks by LE.

 

[samanthadaniels1995]

YES.

I would believe they have a narrower focus. They can spend time verifying different points to secure their investigation. Then issue warrants, then secure more information. Then make an arrest. Don't you believe this is the pattern we see in these crimes.

Is this a good source to draw information from ?

https://www.policeforum.org/assets/docs/Free_Online_Documents/Homicide/homicide%20investigation%20standard%20operating%20procedures%201999.pdf

 

[CityKid]

I think it's more interesting it's said that KG wasn't supposed to be there that weekend, just supposedly came to show off her new car and Ethan wasn't a residence there but decided to sleep there that night. That tells me it was someone they came into contact with that night or someone who lives very close by, within sight of the murder house. AJMO

I'm with you 100% on this. The only info I'm really eager to get from LE is what went on during X&E's vague hours that night, because MOO something happened during that time.

 

[truthteller1]

This isn't like getting paternity results, though.

This is a crime scene with the DNA of at least 6 people who were either victims or who lived in the house. Then, there are the friends who came to help the two young women who lived on the first floor. And that's just the beginning.

Find the perp's DNA in this house is going to take time and correlation between multiple bits of DNA (some of it incomplete) and specific locations in the house. They need to find, as an archaeologist would, the top layers of touch DNA that are in the two murder rooms, then attempt to reconstruct it, as it's unlikely that they will get lots of complete "hits" from touch DNA - but the human genome is well known and they can piece together a DNA profile to then run through various databases.

This takes time. And to avoid confirmation bias, it should involve several different lab workers.

How would the FBI gain a profile on this "If I can't have her" person, given that K is no longer alive? How would this man stand out from all the other men who'd been to parties in that house or met any one of the occupants elsewhere?

With paternity tests, you test a specific person against another person's (the baby's) DNA. Two complete profiles to run against each other. That is not the case here.

Yeah I'm not buying it. They've had over a month and massive resources available. The DNA is surely processed by now, and it's either inconclusive or there is no match. The police may have some theories, but the trail has gone cold and they are hoping for a miracle.

 

[TravellingCat]

Also you can have a good roommate relationship with someone and not hang out with them a lot outside of the housing situation

Exactly, I lived in a house with five girls in college. We all got along and hung out but most of us were doing our own thing in roommate pairs on the weekends. Another thing I keep repeating is that I don't find it abnormal at all that the roommates downstairs slept through noise, especially if they had also been drinking. I had a basement room, and I could sleep through anything back then, you had to be able to-- there were always strangers in and out, parties, hook ups, etc. At least one of the doors to the house was probably unlocked at all times. You basically get thrown into living with complete strangers that you barely had time to vet because you just need a place to live quickly, you maybe have one already established friend moving in with you if you're lucky, and then you're forced to trust the judgment of these roommates on who/what they bring into the house. College students are so vulnerable!

The fact that this happened right before a holiday makes me think of Kristen Smart. Campus was empty right before a holiday as well. In Kristen's case, the criminal had a history of inappropriate behavior, her intoxication and the quietness of campus emboldened him. Vulnerability and opportunity aligned for this perp too.

All this leads to my personal top theory. I do think the perp targeted either the house, or one, or both of the pairs of roommates. I lean towards someone creeping around campus hang out spots that night looking for someone to follow home. IMO, they most likely followed K and M as they were in more public locations that night and appeared visibly intoxicated. They could have even followed a couple people that night before deciding this was their best chance to live out their fantasy. I think that's why this crime looks premeditated but also doesn't. It was premeditated in that this person has probably thought about it, and maybe even almost done it, many times before.

 

[ashhouston]

No.

okay i was wondering about that but things get a bit overwelming with information overload on this case

 

[cottonweaver]

missed this interview with Chief Fry, 7th Dec


What do you all make of his reply on 'cleared' ? ( I appreciate he has to be ambiguous but how would you feel if you were on the ' temporarily cleared' list?)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600516589514010624

 

[Skigirl]

Ok something has been bugging me and I feel like it’s been kinda overlooked. What do these 4 people have in common other than living in that house and being roommates? They both shared a long loving relationship with the other person killed with them. X and C were in a relationship as boyfriend/girlfriend and it seemed from all accounts to be a loving relationship. M and K also were like sisters it’s been said. Friend since the 6th grade. They also had that bond of a loving friendship. The other 2 roommates were spared for whatever reason. Motive for the killings could have been a jealousy rage of these relationships they had and this killer feeling rage at not having this.

It’s very strange to me that this house was considers a party house and yet on this 1 weekend night all the roommates got home around the same time and all just went into there separate room and went to sleep. It just seems odd to me.

Also wasn’t K close to the other 2 roommates also? I’ve seen them in party pictures together. Why on the night she comes back into town she only hangs out with M?

I’m not saying other roommates were to blame but I would be curious to find out about the recent dynamics in those friendships. It seems like something was off that specific night about all of their interactions with each other compared to pictures and videos I’ve seen previously.

Obviously just my observation based on information available.

I don't make anything of the fact that the roommates had different plans from one another that night. E&X had a party to go to because of his frat. The two lifelong friends went out drinking together, probably because they were of age and could get served without having to go to a party.

I lived in a co-ed house with over a dozen other people for a couple years in college. At different times, we went out in lots of different combinations and sometimes I went out with other friends without anyone from the house. Sometimes, when I was heading out, I invited whoever happened to be around and sometimes one or two wanted to come; other times they had other plans. That didn't mean we weren't all friends (some were closer than others). Sometimes we hung out with just other housemates, sometimes we had people over. I think that having lots of different constellations of interests and friendships is a sign of healthy young adulthood.

During my senior year, I had moved out of the house into an apartment with just one other friend. We had planned to find a house with two others, but for various reasons, it didn't work out. Each of us had boyfriends and slept over at our boyfriends' houses a lot of the time. We were always happy to see each other when we happened to be in the apartment at the same time. We often had to make arrangements to spend time together because we couldn't be guaranteed to bump into each other at home. I continued to maintain ties with the old house, too, though I saw most of the people I'd lived with less frequently after I moved out.

The girls' made a tiktok pretending to be each other, they clearly knew each others' quirks and were fond of one another. All of it seems very normal to me.

 

[10ofRods]

Im no expert but from what I read separating 2 dna samples from each other is difficult and extremely time consuming. Would a usable dna profile be done by now?

Probably. I mean, presuming that they found touch DNA. I do not believe this killer cut himself and dripped blood anywhere. I do not believe he stepped in much blood, either - but if he had, his footprints might still yield some of his own DNA (from the soles of his feet, as we all walk around our own houses and get human dust on our feet). However, separating out the perp DNA might not result in a complete (23 pair) sample.

So they'd vacuum the house with special vacuum cleaners. The protocol for this listed in most forensic books is to use a special vacuum on the bodies of the victims, then on their bedding, then another bag for the room in general, and then of course, the stairs we know he used. Take swabs from that sliding glass door (he was probably gloved - very little DNA left).

They might even look at air filters (from the heating system). There are about 3 billion base pairs in the human genome. Many are shared among us, some have extremely diverse expression (that's what you want to find, so you can separate out the DNA). For example, nearly all of us have the same or similar allele for having 5 fingers on each hand. The 5 bones in a dolphin's fin come from a related but distinctive allele - but ours is quite similar to the one possessed by chimps. Nearly all of us have a very similar allele at that spot, doesn't help much in identifying.

So after the DNA is carefully reconstructed (the various alleles are marked off from each other with a unique punctuation-like set of codes), the investigators can go to specific places in the genes (if available) and start to see what individual markers this person has. There are lots of different ways to do this, and different subspecialties within this field of study.

But what if there is no complete sample of this person? What if it's only partial? Much can still be learned forensically, but it might not lead quickly to one specific person.

I would hope that they find the Y chromosome of this person, because that would place the person within a particular historic/ethnic group, more or less, and that could help the investigators decide which portions of the perp's gene map are most important to look at. Let's say he's R1A1b (a common Y chromosome in European men - mostly northern European men for that one). I'd then want to know the alleles for eye color, hair color, and several others (on different chromosomes - and those chromosomes are likely no longer linked together by the structure of a living cell...)

If instead, he's Q or R1b1 (like the men in my father's family), then those bits of information give a different overall ethnic/historic profile. Just that bit of information could help investigators narrow down a set of POI's.

 

[accordn2me]

This isn't like getting paternity results, though.

This is a crime scene with the DNA of at least 6 people who were either victims or who lived in the house. Then, there are the friends who came to help the two young women who lived on the first floor. And that's just the beginning.

Find the perp's DNA in this house is going to take time and correlation between multiple bits of DNA (some of it incomplete) and specific locations in the house. They need to find, as an archaeologist would, the top layers of touch DNA that are in the two murder rooms, then attempt to reconstruct it, as it's unlikely that they will get lots of complete "hits" from touch DNA - but the human genome is well known and they can piece together a DNA profile to then run through various databases.

This takes time. And to avoid confirmation bias, it should involve several different lab workers.

How would the FBI gain a profile on this "If I can't have her" person, given that K is no longer alive? How would this man stand out from all the other men who'd been to parties in that house or met any one of the occupants elsewhere?

With paternity tests, you test a specific person against another person's (the baby's) DNA. Two complete profiles to run against each other. That is not the case here.

Given that the victims had just been out to a party & a bar, how can “top layers of touch DNA” put a knife in the killer’s hand?

What makes THE DNA stand out as significant enough to point to a suspect?

 

[Deleted member 110058]

They've the FBI helping them so all the lab work is done. You can get paternity results in 48 hours commercially.
Digital evidence also has been collected.
I know they need warrants and whatnot but I think everything's been expedited due to severity of crime.

The probability of solving a murder drops rapidly after a few weeks of no arrest.

I think the loner, psycho, stalker, peeping Tom type perp is what this is.

Someone local but peripheral.

I think Kaylee is the type of charismatic, beautiful person who could make a strong impression on someone.

She charmed and enchanted the wrong person. "If I can't have her, no one else can".

The others were just collateral damage.

Maybe the FBI have a list of these type of guys in Moscow or her hometown but they've no evidence on any of them.

I don't think we have all of the lab work back. They have to do DNA testing for co-mingled blood, which takes a lot of work.
Or did they say that all DNA tests were complete and I just missed it?

 

[cottonweaver]

Yeah I'm not buying it. They've had over a month and massive resources available. The DNA is surely processed by now, and it's either inconclusive or there is no match. The police may have some theories, but the trail has gone cold and they are hoping for a miracle.

why do you think they're urgently appealing for white Hyundai if they have no warm trail? as a ruse?

 

[OrangeRhyme]

Yeah I'm not buying it. They've had over a month and massive resources available. The DNA is surely processed by now, and it's either inconclusive or there is no match. The police may have some theories, but the trail has gone cold and they are hoping for a miracle.

Asking for info on the white car shows desperation.
They probably knew about that car from very early, like the first week.

They may not have analysed every single bit of DNA but all the obvious stuff like touch DNA on the victims, doorknobs, doors, windows, lightswitches has been analysed.
Likewise all the blood evidence.

If the perp wore gloves, didn't cut himself, didn't struggle with any of the victims, and didnt rape or sexually assault anyone, then where's the DNA coming from!?
It's possible a hair follicle fell from his head but that's it.

So I think they've nothing except the white car passing a Ring camera.

 

[Marie A]

Do you guys think they know who done it at this point?

Answering all IMHO - per speculation.
I personally think they are clueless as to WHO this perp is. I think they have a profile of him but I also personally think this was a RANDOM targeting making catching this perp the same as finding a needle in a haystack.
That’s what is so beyond horrifying about this case.
It’s another Ted Bundy but this Ted is more combat skilled with police or military training or even more scary he is a high IQ self-trained psychopath.
It takes extreme strength to stab 4 people and even Bundy said he quit often from pure exhaustion.
I pray to God they actually have his DNA but I’m not thoroughly convinced that they have collected a solid specimen of the perp’s DNA. I think the crime scene tape still up speaks VOLUMES.
IF they have his DNA he is obviously not in CODIS or he would have been arrested. IF he is in CODIS unidentified but as the perp to another crime, that information needs to be shared for the protection of innocents.
This is how I think this went down- again pure speculation on my part-
I think the perp intended to stab/ murder a pretty girl but I think he’s an “equal opportunity“ killer and could have been satisfied with any none specific pretty girl victim. All good parents think their kids are special but that doesn’t mean they are targeted more than others.
He likely was targeting MORE than one house to see which he wanted to enter under cover of darkness. The opportunity arose at this ill-fated house when the lights went out and his patience paid off.
He exited his 2011-2013 white Hyundai Elantra (or walked from a neighboring apartment building) with a prepared kill kit in his backpack including - the K-Bar type knife, night vision goggles (no turning on lights), his face shield, gloves, and zipping suit that included shoe covers along with plastic trash bag. This perp was NOT going to give up his DNA willingly. He also had done prep work for cameras and such- making sure that he wasn’t being visibly monitored. He’s not stupid so he didn’t bring any electronics with him. If he was stupid he would be locked up already.
He entered the house and the spare empty bedroom where he waited after the lights went out on floor #1. No barking dog to deal with as K’s bedroom door was closed with the pooch inside. He heard X and E enter and waited. He heard K and M enter and waited. K took dog out then put dog back in her bedroom.
An hour later the perp pulled all his goodies from his backpack and prepared for the kill.He put on his kill outfit assuring no DNA could escape.
It was now time. He may have intended to kill six people or just one person. Again 100% random per opportunity. I believe the first floor bedrooms had locked doors and so did X‘s room. He went to 3rd floor where K’s room was locked with dog inside but M’s room was unlocked. Had he previously made sure the lock was broken? Or did he luck out with this unlocked room?
Maybe he assumed all doors would be locked but he would catch someone on a bathroom break?
In any case I still believe he killed M and K first and with relative swiftness and ease. That may have been enough to serve his deranged purposes but I think he ran into E in the hall and had to take him out. E either was checking on noise he heard or on bathroom break. After E he killed X. By then he was hyped on adrenaline but physically spent so X was able to put up a longer fight than the others.
I think he was either too spent or downstairs doors were locked when he checked so the survivors were safe.
He then may have entered the bath on #2 and turned on the light, pulled his trash bag out of his backpack, taken off his gloves, face shield and body suit and deposited those in the trash bag along with K-Bar, tied a knot and deposited back in his backpack. Then he likely exited on the ground floor and nonchalantly walked back to his car (or apartment if the car is a red herring.) I’m leaning toward car.
The FBI has checked to see if he peed in the toilet, washed his hands, anything. Hopefully they took samples from the rug in the extra bedroom where he could have sat in wait. He was likely smart enough to include at least one plastic tarp in his backpack for sitting on while in wait. I don‘t think I’m overestimating just how brilliant this perp is. This is not your regular video game playing nerd. He’s a mastermind of depravity.
I’m rolling my eyes at anyone who thinks this is a female, a college student, or someone connected to these victims with a revenge wish. This is an entirely different kettle of fish.
This is just a devilishly well orchestrated crime of opportunity
When you look at this crime- everything has been done so well to try to solve it by seasoned officers, detectives- the best of the best. Praying for a breakthrough. All IMHO to try to make sense of this insensible madness.

 

[10ofRods]

Yeah I'm not buying it. They've had over a month and massive resources available. The DNA is surely processed by now, and it's either inconclusive or there is no match. The police may have some theories, but the trail has gone cold and they are hoping for a miracle.

We can agree to disagree. Perhaps Idaho is much faster, despite not having a close-by regional FBI office. In California, it would take longer.

I don't think you understand that there's a big gray area in between your two choices (inconclusive/no match). More data can come in, more items can be studied, and most importantly, more computer-based reconstruction can take place. It's like a giant jigsaw puzzle and the various "fits" each need to be studied in context. What they want to find is a series of unique markers on one bit of a chromosomes (SNP's). There are 3 billion separate potential candidates in each person's DNA.

3 billion is a lot. We'd love it if the DNA came all organized into its typical "packets" (chromatids) but it likely isn't in that shape and has to be reconstructed first.

Then, if they have swabs from specific POI's or people they want to clear with DNA, they can start using that unique strip (which it has taken time to find) against the other samples.

The samples weren't even collected completely, IMO, until well into the second week (and perhaps longer). And the picture might temporarily get more complex, rather than less. I can put it this way: some stretches of SNP's work better for this purpose than other, but it depends on what you're comparing them to (which population of real humans you're studying).

 

[Victoria Chambers]

I feel that there must be no biological evidence, linking to the killer, found on or around the victims. I dont believe he cut himself. Would likely have had a hood up and possibly wore a face mask.
In that event, even with Xana desperately fighting for her life, she would not have been able to claw his skin or yank out his hair.
And that is not to credit him because I dont believe he is smart by any stretch of the imagination. Most likely cant believe his luck at this point.
As long as people recognise, There is NO perfect murder. And whatever they amount to - this monsters days are numbered!

 

[10ofRods]

Answering all IMHO - per speculation.
I personally think they are clueless as to WHO this perp is. I think they have a profile of him but I also personally think this was a RANDOM targeting making catching this perp the same as finding a needle in a haystack.
That’s what is so beyond horrifying about this case.
It’s another Ted Bundy but this Ted is more combat skilled with police or military training or even more scary he is a high IQ self-trained psychopath.
It takes extreme strength to stab 4 people and even Bundy said he quit often from pure exhaustion.
I pray to God they actually have his DNA but I’m not thoroughly convinced that they have collected a solid specimen of the perp’s DNA. I think the crime scene tape still up speaks VOLUMES.
IF they have his DNA he is obviously not in CODIS or he would have been arrested. IF he is in CODIS unidentified but as the perp to another crime, that information needs to be shared for the protection of innocents.
This is how I think this went down- again pure speculation on my part-
I think the perp intended to stab/ murder a pretty girl but I think he’s an “equal opportunity“ killer and could have been satisfied with any none specific pretty girl victim. All good parents think their kids are special but that doesn’t mean they are targeted more than others.
He likely was targeting MORE than one house to see which he wanted to enter under cover of darkness. The opportunity arose at this ill-fated house when the lights went out and his patience paid off.
He exited his 2011-2013 white Hyundai Elantra (or walked from a neighboring apartment building) with a prepared kill kit in his backpack including - the K-Bar type knife, night vision goggles (no turning on lights), his face shield, gloves, and zipping suit that included shoe covers along with plastic trash bag. This perp was NOT going to give up his DNA willingly. He also had done prep work for cameras and such- making sure that he wasn’t being visibly monitored. He’s not stupid so he didn’t bring any electronics with him. If he was stupid he would be locked up already.
He entered the house and the spare empty bedroom where he waited after the lights went out on floor #1. No barking dog to deal with as K’s bedroom door was closed with the pooch inside. He heard X and E enter and waited. He heard K and M enter and waited. K took dog out then put dog back in her bedroom.
An hour later the perp pulled all his goodies from his backpack and prepared for the kill.He put on his kill outfit assuring no DNA could escape.
It was now time. He may have intended to kill six people or just one person. Again 100% random per opportunity. I believe the first floor bedrooms had locked doors and so did X‘s room. He went to 3rd floor where K’s room was locked with dog inside but M’s room was unlocked. Had he previously made sure the lock was broken? Or did he luck out with this unlocked room?
Maybe he assumed all doors would be locked but he would catch someone on a bathroom break?
In any case I still believe he killed M and K first and with relative swiftness and ease. That may have been enough to serve his deranged purposes but I think he ran into E in the hall and had to take him out. E either was checking on noise he heard or on bathroom break. After E he killed X. By then he was hyped on adrenaline but physically spent so X was able to put up a longer fight than the others.
I think he was either too spent or downstairs doors were locked when he checked so the survivors were safe.
He then may have entered the bath on #2 and turned on the light, pulled his trash bag out of his backpack, taken off his gloves, face shield and body suit and deposited those in the trash bag along with K-Bar, tied a knot and deposited back in his backpack. Then he likely exited on the ground floor and nonchalantly walked back to his car (or apartment if the car is a red herring.) I’m leaning toward car.
The FBI has checked to see if he peed in the toilet, washed his hands, anything. Hopefully they took samples from the rug in the extra bedroom where he could have sat in wait. He was likely smart enough to include at least one plastic tarp in his backpack for sitting on while in wait. I don‘t think I’m overestimating just how brilliant this perp is. This is not your regular video game playing nerd. He’s a mastermind of depravity.
I’m rolling my eyes at anyone who thinks this is a female, a college student, or someone connected to these victims with a revenge wish. This is an entirely different kettle of fish.
This is just a devilishly well orchestrated crime of opportunity
When you look at this crime- everything has been done so well to try to solve it by seasoned officers, detectives- the best of the best. Praying for a breakthrough. All IMHO to try to make sense of this insensible madness.

If your scenario is accepted, then there should be usable DNA in that spare bedroom.

It's also possible that the extensive look that the investigators (including FBI) took at the backyard could have turned something up (perps sometimes pee or poop while waiting and stalking - dogs can be used to locate human waste of this type; there were dogs at the scene at the end of Week 1, but no word on what type of dog they had come in).

Perps sometimes smoke or eat while waiting, as well (or spit).

I agree that this perp organized his crime to avoid leaving DNA, as much as he could. I pray that the earliest investigators in that house had a really tight protocol. The best scenario would be finding non-victim DNA in one of the victim blood samples (indicating that the perp's body shed some cells as he went about doing his crimes). But if he was wrapped up tight in protective clothing, there might be very little (but he did have to put his gloves on - and he can't do that without touching the gloves - the outside of the gloves would still have some touch DNA, the problem is whether he touched much once he was in the house).

He touched his knife and perhaps some bedding. He took the knife with him - but the bedding remains.