ID - 4 University of Idaho Students Murdered - Moscow # 28

[mrtnira]

Idaho murders: Police personnel numbers changing as investigation surpasses 3 weeks

University of Idaho students Ethan Chapin, 20; Kaylee Goncalves, 21; Xana Kernodle, 20; and 21-year-old Madison Mogen were stabbed several times and killed on November 13.

news.yahoo.com

From the article: "Meanwhile, the number of FBI personnel assigned to the case increased to 46 investigators working in Moscow and elsewhere in the country, and two agents from the behavioral analysis unit.

"Idaho State Police’s staffing decreased in the number of investigators working the case, from 20 to 13. The number of uniformed troopers remained the same, while the mobile crime scene unit was eliminated. ISP forensic services investigators remain on the case, and a communications team has also been deployed, police said."
----

Why would FBI be so heavily involved in what might otherwise be a very local killing? 46 FBI investigators across the country, not just in Moscow, Idaho. And the two agents from the Behavioral Analysis Unit? That is in addition to the State Police, and the local/county presence. That is a lot of investigative fire power, with a lot of deep resources.

Instead of spending time talking about the dog, or a front door that was left open, might something else be going on here?

 

[Nash2019]

I think LE has identified the perp with very strong circumstantial evidence. I also think they have his DNA. Though it's been reported that there is no evidence of sexual assault, I believe at least one of the murders has a sexual component. I believe LE is treading softly <modsnip> and will make an arrest when the crime scene DNA is validated. I believe the perp is closely monitored and cops are confident the public is safe.

 

[SUSAN ANN]

If your scenario is accepted, then there should be usable DNA in that spare bedroom.

It's also possible that the extensive look that the investigators (including FBI) took at the backyard could have turned something up (perps sometimes pee or poop while waiting and stalking - dogs can be used to locate human waste of this type; there were dogs at the scene at the end of Week 1, but no word on what type of dog they had come in).

Perps sometimes smoke or eat while waiting, as well (or spit).

I agree that this perp organized his crime to avoid leaving DNA, as much as he could. I pray that the earliest investigators in that house had a really tight protocol. The best scenario would be finding non-victim DNA in one of the victim blood samples (indicating that the perp's body shed some cells as he went about doing his crimes). But if he was wrapped up tight in protective clothing, there might be very little (but he did have to put his gloves on - and he can't do that without touching the gloves - the outside of the gloves would still have some touch DNA, the problem is whether he touched much once he was in the house).

He touched his knife and perhaps some bedding. He took the knife with him - but the bedding remains.

In my opinion, I would think he would’ve sat on that hill now and then to watch the activities in that house. Not sure what Idaho winters are like but here in Minnesota 30 or 32° is not that cold for someone to go snowmobiling or whatever.

 

[cottonweaver]

Idaho murders: Police personnel numbers changing as investigation surpasses 3 weeks

University of Idaho students Ethan Chapin, 20; Kaylee Goncalves, 21; Xana Kernodle, 20; and 21-year-old Madison Mogen were stabbed several times and killed on November 13.

news.yahoo.com

From the article: "Meanwhile, the number of FBI personnel assigned to the case increased to 46 investigators working in Moscow and elsewhere in the country, and two agents from the behavioral analysis unit.

"Idaho State Police’s staffing decreased in the number of investigators working the case, from 20 to 13. The number of uniformed troopers remained the same, while the mobile crime scene unit was eliminated. ISP forensic services investigators remain on the case, and a communications team has also been deployed, police said."
----

Why would FBI be so heavily involved in what might otherwise be a very local killing? 46 FBI investigators across the country, not just in Moscow, Idaho. And the two agents from the Behavioral Analysis Unit? That is in addition to the State Police, and the local/county presence. That is a lot of investigative fire power, with a lot of deep resources.

Instead of spending time talking about the dog, or a front door that was left open, might something else be going on here?

what are you thinking?

 

[WildWest]

I found this very helpful so reposting if others are interested. This member is WS Verified.

ID - 4 University of Idaho Students Murdered - Moscow # 22

MOO but another reason is just not trusting the police, if someone distrusts the police (which a lot of people do) I can see them not wanting to give dna to the police voluntarily That's a good point, but again if you have a strong alibi accompanied with DNA to clear your name, it seems worth...

www.websleuths.com

 

[Ghostwheel]

Throwing this out there. What if the killer didn't try to keep any DNA away from the crime scene. What if he just didn't care? Assumed there was enough random DNA in the house no one could single him out if he wasn't in a database anywhere?

It seems the ones who go in intending to kill with no thought of the consequences seem to be harder to track unless they have had a prior and DNA in CODIS. Jmo.

 

[Marie A]

As long as people recognise, There is NO perfect murder. And whatever they amount to - this monsters days are numbered!

Six Reasons the Murder Clearance Rate Is at an All-Time Low

For the past 60 years, U.S. detectives have gotten worse at one of the most basic jobs of law enforcement.

www.theatlantic.com

Apparently close to 50% of current murders ARE perfect (or at least not solved/ cleared.)

 

[Blue_Painting]

Idaho murders: Police personnel numbers changing as investigation surpasses 3 weeks

University of Idaho students Ethan Chapin, 20; Kaylee Goncalves, 21; Xana Kernodle, 20; and 21-year-old Madison Mogen were stabbed several times and killed on November 13.

news.yahoo.com

From the article: "Meanwhile, the number of FBI personnel assigned to the case increased to 46 investigators working in Moscow and elsewhere in the country, and two agents from the behavioral analysis unit.

"Idaho State Police’s staffing decreased in the number of investigators working the case, from 20 to 13. The number of uniformed troopers remained the same, while the mobile crime scene unit was eliminated. ISP forensic services investigators remain on the case, and a communications team has also been deployed, police said."
----

Why would FBI be so heavily involved in what might otherwise be a very local killing? 46 FBI investigators across the country, not just in Moscow, Idaho. And the two agents from the Behavioral Analysis Unit? That is in addition to the State Police, and the local/county presence. That is a lot of investigative fire power, with a lot of deep resources.

Instead of spending time talking about the dog, or a front door that was left open, might something else be going on here?

Agree. I've been thinking serial killer lately, as the two recent stabbings in Oregon and Washington both happened on the 13th of the month, and at 3am. Sandra Ladd's time of death isn't clear, however.

‘He saved her life’: Husband killed confronting intruder

26-year-old Travis Juetten was stabbed to death at his home on August 13.

www.koin.com

Sandra Ladd Murder: 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know

Sandra Ladd was a resident of Washougal, Washington, who was stabbed to death inside her home in 2020. Sandra Ladd's murder remains unsolved.

heavy.com

 

[Down To Earth]

I know there’s a popular opinion that this crime was committed by someone who’s some degree of a mastermind, especially since it’s now a month without an arrest or known POI. But I’m not personally convinced of that for some reason. To me the crime itself is too risky for it to have been planned out and detailed to perfection. All it would take is for K’s ex, J, to have looked at his phone, saw all the missed calls and walked over to the house. The crime could so easily have been interrupted by J, E, M, X, K or the downstairs roommates. I think the work wasn’t done as much by a mastermind as it was done by someone who carried no fear, whether that be because they have nothing to live for, or they have mental inability to envision negative outcome (think Slingblade), or because they are very very comfortable in close combat like MMA, wrestling, boxing, etc… MOO There are likely a number of mental/psychological issues that could result in this type of fearlessness, even if it’s temporary. I just don’t think this crime is committed with the type of precision and calculation many are crediting. I certainly entertain that notion though, because none of us really know. I’m just giving my current “hunch”.

 

[Victoria Chambers]

Six Reasons the Murder Clearance Rate Is at an All-Time Low

For the past 60 years, U.S. detectives have gotten worse at one of the most basic jobs of law enforcement.

www.theatlantic.com

Apparently close to 50% of current murders ARE perfect (or at least not solved/ cleared.)

But there is no such thing as a perfect murder.
An unsolved murder is likely due to a lack of resources. A wall of silence, intimidation, lots of things can come into play and impede an investigation. A new set of eyes could likely solve those 50% imo

 

[Trouble1321075]

I think LE has identified the perp with very strong circumstantial evidence. I also think they have his DNA. Though it's been reported that there is no evidence of sexual assault, I believe at least one of the murders has a sexual component. I believe LE is treading softly <modsnip - not allowed> and will make an arrest when the crime scene DNA is validated. I believe the perp is closely monitored and cops are confident the public is safe.

What are you basing those beliefs on?

 

[flowershop]

Im no expert but from what I read separating 2 dna samples from each other is difficult and extremely time consuming. Would a usable dna profile be done by now?

This article says it could take weeks or months for ldaho authorities to get outcomes of forensic analyses.

Investigators untangling the Idaho student slayings face a ‘daunting task’: Parsing the DNA

Victims' families and the public are growing impatient with police investigating the University of Idaho stabbings. But analyzing evidence could take weeks.

www.google.com

 

[Ghostwheel]

Idaho murders: Police personnel numbers changing as investigation surpasses 3 weeks

University of Idaho students Ethan Chapin, 20; Kaylee Goncalves, 21; Xana Kernodle, 20; and 21-year-old Madison Mogen were stabbed several times and killed on November 13.

news.yahoo.com

From the article: "Meanwhile, the number of FBI personnel assigned to the case increased to 46 investigators working in Moscow and elsewhere in the country, and two agents from the behavioral analysis unit.

"Idaho State Police’s staffing decreased in the number of investigators working the case, from 20 to 13. The number of uniformed troopers remained the same, while the mobile crime scene unit was eliminated. ISP forensic services investigators remain on the case, and a communications team has also been deployed, police said."
----

Why would FBI be so heavily involved in what might otherwise be a very local killing? 46 FBI investigators across the country, not just in Moscow, Idaho. And the two agents from the Behavioral Analysis Unit? That is in addition to the State Police, and the local/county presence. That is a lot of investigative fire power, with a lot of deep resources.

Instead of spending time talking about the dog, or a front door that was left open, might something else be going on here?

It might, but also the murders involve violent crimes against interstate victims. Ethan, at least, was from WA. It seems like that would allow involvement by the FBI.

Also, Moscow, Id does not have the resources to handle something like this where the FBI does. Local can ask for assistance, though the FBI does not have to give it.

 

[Parsnip]

I know there’s a popular opinion that this crime was committed by someone who’s some degree of a mastermind, especially since it’s now a month without an arrest or known POI. But I’m not personally convinced of that for some reason. To me the crime itself is too risky for it to have been planned out and detailed to perfection. All it would take is for K’s ex, J, to have looked at his phone, saw all the missed calls and walked over to the house. The crime could so easily have been interrupted by J, E, M, or the downstairs roommates. I think the work wasn’t done as much by a mastermind as it was done by someone who carried no fear, whether that be because they have nothing to live for, or they have mental inability to envision negative outcome (think Slingblade), or because they are very very comfortable in close combat like MMA, wrestling, boxing, etc… MOO There are likely a number of mental/psychological issues that could result in this type of fearlessness, even if it’s temporary. I just don’t think this crime is committed with the type of precision and calculation many are crediting. I certainly entertain that notion though, because none of us really know. I’m just giving my current “hunch”.

I agree with your hunch, though it is more than a hunch since your reasoning is clearly articulated. As you state, his (over) confidence could result from any number of factors. MOO

 

[Charlot123]

I mean expedited because they've the FBI helping them. I'm assuming this also means forensics.

Most homicides are handled in state.

I think the case is cold. Take a break from this forum and anywhere else you're following the case as there's no new info and won't be.

I wouldn’t be so negative. LE are people like you and me, dealing with drunk students in Moscow, ID, is commonplace, but this it is a very difficult case for many reasons. Four people - four threads.

I just think it is going to be a long case, and a million will be spent fast.

You are right that there may be no news but it doesn’t mean the case is cold.

 

[BingoBongo]

For those wonder DNA turn around timeframe, found this, it's from 2010 so obviously things may have changed, but says ID takes about 45-60 days on a "no suspect, rush".

https://www.cga.ct.gov/2010/rpt/2010-R-0086.htm#:~:text=For%20example%2C%20the%20turnaround%20time,Public%20Safety%20Forensic%20Science%20Laboratory).

 

[shane13]

But how many do they not solve? And how long does it take when they do? My point is DNA may not catch a perp very quickly. But it sure will prosecute them once they do catch them through other means. How do you catch a person with DNA when their DNA is not in a database and their relatives aren't either? And how do you find a random perp, with no known connection to the victims, to test against? Imo.

bbm
Not always. E.g., OJ.

 

[10ofRods]

Throwing this out there. What if the killer didn't try to keep any DNA away from the crime scene. What if he just didn't care? Assumed there was enough random DNA in the house no one could single him out if he wasn't in a database anywhere?

It seems the ones who go in intending to kill with no thought of the consequences seem to be harder to track unless they have had a prior and DNA in CODIS. Jmo.

If that's true, then Hooray! He left DNA absolutely everywhere. On the sliding door or other point of entry, on the floors, the bedding, the victims.

In no way are careless killers harder to track, though, IMO. Genealogical DNA then becomes the right tool.

There are about 10 software programs in use by criminologists to give other clues: facial reconstruction, probable ethnicity, certain mental health issues/propensities. All of this would help narrow a field of careless POI's. They did say it was "sloppy."

Maybe his DNA was everywhere - that would be great. CODIS makes it easier, but using markers and genetic genealogy will ultimately find the perp. That's my bet (if the person in fact didn't wear gloves, especially if they got a cut on some part of their own body).

 

[Moonsie]

“Sure it festers sometimes but it is usually impulsive. But I feel like this was more compulsive, calculated, and more of an internalized rage than a personal one. The victims probably (abstractly) represented something to him. The killings satiating an inner 'need' or voice, if you will.”

*quote carried over from previous thread*

I agree this is a possibility.

Let’s say in the unlikely (imo) chance that this is a SK. Let’s also say he has committed one or more crimes before this one. One inner “need” or “voice” might be, “I committed X crime Y months ago and I pulled it off and no one cares. It’s not in the news, it didn’t make headlines, no one cares about my handiwork. Time to up my game.”

Or

Let‘s say this was more of a “targeted” kill (kill a bunch of college kids). Inner “needs” or “voices” might be, “I need to teach her father a lesson“ or “my child should be living happy like this but is dead“ or “my childhood was stolen from me and I should be happy” or “these spoiled kids live in a fantasy world and I have to suffer in the real one” or…add your own idea.

moo.

 

[layer]

How do you catch a person with DNA when their DNA is not in a database and their relatives aren't either? And how do you find a random perp, with no known connection to the victims, to test against?

DNA is such a new technology, in the bigger scheme of things. As you say, it is very effective in criminal prosecutions, but crimes have been solved for centuries without it. There really is no substitute for good, old fashioned gumshoe detective work. I worry sometimes that LE is becoming overly enamored with these new technologies. The case in Delphi should have been solved much quicker.

JMHO