ID - DeOrr Kunz Jr, 2, Timber Creek Campground, 10 July 2015 - #13

[gliving]

This article doesn't specify digital costs but it gives one an idea of how generous the donation of nine billboard might be.

"How much does having a billboard ad cost?

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Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico (adult population 680,00)

Cost Per Billboard: $1,200 per billboard (rate for the purchase 7 billboards)

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Location: Atlanta, Georgia (adult population 4,762,000)

Cost Per Billboard: $2,500 per billboard (rate for the purchase 28 billboards)

- See more at: http://fitsmallbusiness.com/how-much-does-billboard-advertising-cost/#sthash.6ukmrMHI.dpuf

 

[ReadySet]

Were they something like 50' apart (or whatever distance) to have them all within the same 150'? I must be confused. As for the upstream/downstream, water flows downstream, but someone could easily be fishing right beside you (upstream) as you fished downstream (which is where your line will end up anyway).

ETA: I'm going to give this another sot . So, if I understand correctly, the campsite (where GGPA and DeOrr Jr were) is 150' from the creek shore? And standing at the creek shore, 50' apart, are IR and then DK and JM (who are together)? Actually, standing on the shore of a creek that has some ins and outs caused by the shoreline, that's plenty room to fish privately and not even SEE the person (IR) who is 50' away. So if GGPA and DeOrr Jr are 150' away from the creek shore, as the pictures depict, there is NO WAY they were 50' away from IR or the parents.

The creek was 50' away, not 150' feet.
You're right that the creek bank could have "ins and outs", but we don't know if or where those were, the bank could have been straight where they were, we don't know.

 

[ReadySet]

I don't see how they could still think he's been abducted and do this documentary just based on who is doing the documentery.

But at the same time this is something that I think will help DeOrr's story live on.

So what's your theory about why they did the documentary?

 

[Onebest]

http://www.rexburgstandardjournal.c...cle_8669e148-79b2-11e5-8336-2fb1819ebaf7.html

Let's hope hope hope for something.

Is this the same weekend SB said he was going to meet with Bonneville County/ IF? If so, does anyone know about local LE involvement in this search?

 

[TheTruthWillOut]

AFAIK, the parents believe Deorr was abducted by a stranger. Hence the sketch and the family endorsed billboards. Have they ever mentioned a mountain lion? Or is that what the documentary is about? So confusing. TIA

Like I say I find it odd that you would participate in a documentary that I assume they knew won't be seen by anyone until sometime next year.

I can't see how it helps anyone right now.

It is similar with the sketch. Why do LE seem reluctant to release it publicly? They say they have shown it to locals and got a negative response. Again, how do this help anyone?

Although I'm afraid I do wonder if the sketch/Jeep creep was a PI "thing" and we won't hear about it again.

 

[ReadySet]

13 threads....over 3500 comments....god forbid two people had a conversation about something they believe is an actual possiblity that didn't involve the parents having to be the bad guys.

How will they ever move on [emoji33]

Respectfully, not sure what you mean here...the only things to discuss here are not just
1.Lion, or 2.parents are guilty.

Asking questions about the campground, vehicles, times of arrivals, actions of any of the POIs, what the POIs have said, what the Sheriff has said, what has been said in the news, the documentary, the PI, etc. does not equate to saying the parents are guilty.
The lion is a valid subject to discuss, but not the only subject. Disagreeing with the lion theory does not equate to saying the parents are guilty.

 

[ILOKAL]

The creek was 50' away, not 150' feet.
You're right that the creek bank could have "ins and outs", but we don't know if or where those were, the bank could have been straight where they were, we don't know.

Doesn't that straight line run from the campsite to the creek shore?

 

[ReadySet]

I find it interesting that a person who was a stranger to the family has initiated both the billboards and the search this weekend. Not that anything's wrong with it, just interesting. I'm not questioning why the stranger is doing it, just wondering if that is typical in a case like this that instead of family members or friends initiating this, a stranger would? Maybe so.

http://www.rexburgstandardjournal.c...-child-before/article_8669e148-79b2-11e5-8336

http://www.eastidahonews.com/2015/10/billboards-featuring-deorr-kunz-going-up-across-idaho/

 

[giagreen]

Respectfully, not sure what you mean here...the only things to discuss here are not just
1.Lion, or 2.parents are guilty.

Asking questions about the campground, vehicles, times of arrivals, actions of any of the POIs, what the POIs have said, what the Sheriff has said, what has been said in the news, the documentary, the PI, etc. does not equate to saying the parents are guilty.
The lion is a valid subject to discuss, but not the only subject. Disagreeing with the lion theory does not equate to saying the parents are guilty.

In all reality today was really the first time we got stuck on the mountain lion theory for that long. I've tried to discuss it before. I really have and every time the topic goes back to the trip to the store. Or how negligent this person or that person is. Or how what DK says doesn't match what SB says. Or how sketchy IR looked. And trying to figure out a way to make it fit that any of the poi know something. And nothing fits IMO. At this point I think most of it is kind of irrelevant unless if all poi know something.

For 13 whole threads I've sat and read the same thing going around and around and around. And on 12 of those threads you won't see one single post from me.

I think a ml is a very real possibility. I wish more people would have came up with more reasons on why they don't think its possible so I can see if they are right. Other wise how els am I ever going to rule it out on my list? Because I can't find a single reason. I guess that came off wrong to some people but that really isn't my problem. But really for the past week I've been thinking he could be in creek....so is one day of two people talking about ml really gonna hurt anyone? Its not as if I haven't seen others repeat them self's...but that's okay to do tho as long as it isn't about ml apparently.

 

[Hoosier952]

Respectfully, not sure what you mean here...the only things to discuss here are not just
1.Lion, or 2.parents are guilty.

Asking questions about the campground, vehicles, times of arrivals, actions of any of the POIs, what the POIs have said, what the Sheriff has said, what has been said in the news, the documentary, the PI, etc. does not equate to saying the parents are guilty.
The lion is a valid subject to discuss, but not the only subject. Disagreeing with the lion theory does not equate to saying the parents are guilty.

Agreed. There have been some excellent questions brought up throughout the hundreds of posts. We've discussed mountain lions, big foot, UFOs, POIs, creeks, reservoirs, wandering toddlers, running toddlers, clingy toddlers, axes, overalls, campers, vehicles, terrain, bears, wolves, coyotes, LE, cremains, searchers, EMT bags, videos, stores, clerks, RSOs, changing stories, blankies, toy cars, and so much more. There are only so many topics that can be discussed due to TOS as well as limited information given.

I don't think a mountain lion is to blame. I don't think he was abducted. That still leaves several options on the table and the majority of those aren't pointing any fingers at POIs.

 

[giagreen]

Is this the same weekend SB said he was going to meet with Bonneville County/ IF? If so, does anyone know about local LE involvement in this search?

You know...you just made me realize SB is probably going to discuss what the FBI found. Because wasn't it the family was waiting to do a search once the FBI was done with their investigation?
And it'd make sense to me for both LE offices to go over the results together once they get the report.. And now all the sudden the family is doing a search also.

 

[giagreen]

I find it interesting that a person who was a stranger to the family has initiated both the billboards and the search this weekend. Not that anything's wrong with it, just interesting. I'm not questioning why the stranger is doing it, just wondering if that is typical in a case like this that instead of family members or friends initiating this, a stranger would? Maybe so.

http://www.rexburgstandardjournal.c...-child-before/article_8669e148-79b2-11e5-8336

http://www.eastidahonews.com/2015/10/billboards-featuring-deorr-kunz-going-up-across-idaho/

I don't think the family had the money for the billboard's. I think that's what they wanted to use the go fund me money on but they got a lot of crap for that because everyone was upset they wanted money to help search for him but physically were not looking. So they took it down.

 

[Onebest]

You know...you just made me realize SB is probably going to discuss what the FBI found. Because wasn't it the family was waiting to do a search once the FBI was done with their investigation?
And it'd make sense to me for both LE offices to go over the results together once they get the report.. And now all the sudden the family is doing a search also.

Do not know that the family has not been going all along. SB said in radio interview they were going almost every weekend. I don't know who is included in that statement though.

Just wondering who is coordinating and assisting the family this weekend. Normally LE is involved, what if they find something? It should be marked properly and saved for evidence.

The news paper article doesn't really say anything about structure. Hope they get media coverage for the search. Am just speculating, looking for clarity. JMO.

 

[ReadySet]

Doesn't that straight line run from the campsite to the creek shore?

LOL we might not be talking about the same thing, but I'll take a stab at it. Do you mean the map that was posted? And the straight line that said 40 some meters that equated to 150 feet? My interpretation was that straight line indicated the distance down the bank, across the creek and to the other side; not just from the campsite to the bank of the creek. Now I'm really confused!

 

[TeaTime]

Would you please provide a link regarding the fawn and mothers' survival rate (where is this, Idaho?) that also states how those rates are impacted by mountain lions? Thanks so much. BBL

This is in reply to post 824.

 

[Rayemonde]

The only things that makes me doubt the mountain lion hypothesis are the fact that there is no evidence for it, and the fact that it is extremely rare for a mountain lion to kill a child.

There is no evidence that mountain lions hunt at Timber Creek campsite, no evidence that any were there on that day, no reports of anyone seeing mountain lions - or tracks, or scat - in the area and no reports of mountain lions ever stalking or attacking anyone in that area.

The sheriff did say recently that they had been looking for mountain lion scat in the area, but didn't say if they'd found any. I have read online about bears being troublesome in the area because of trash left out, and about wolves hunting in the areas, but haven't found much about mountain lions at all.

I have looked at videos on YouTube of mountain lions stalking or attacking humans and other animals, and they aren't as invisible and the kills aren't as fast and efficient as I expected from what I read on this thread. I think it's extremely unlikely that in a matter of a few minutes a mountain lion would silently kill DeOrr and then carry him away without leaving a trace, and then devour him entirely without any searcher disturbing it. Yes it's possible, but not likely. Given all of the millions of people who camp and hike in cougar territories, I have only been able to find a handful of cases where it might have happened before.

ETA having said all that, I still think it's the most convincing theory at this time, if the timeline we have been given is correct.

 

[jbelle]

The only things that makes me doubt the mountain lion hypothesis are the fact that there is no evidence for it, and the fact that it is extremely rare for a mountain lion to kill a child.

There is no evidence that mountain lions hunt at Timber Creek campsite, no evidence that any were there on that day, no reports of anyone seeing mountain lions - or tracks, or scat - in the area and no reports of mountain lions ever stalking or attacking anyone in that area.

The sheriff did say recently that they had been looking for mountain lion scat in the area, but didn't say if they'd found any. I have read online about bears being troublesome in the area because of trash left out, and about wolves hunting in the areas, but haven't found much about mountain lions at all.

I have looked at videos on YouTube of mountain lions stalking or attacking humans and other animals, and they aren't as invisible and the kills aren't as fast and efficient as I expected from what I read on this thread. I think it's extremely unlikely that in a matter of a few minutes a mountain lion would silently kill DeOrr and then carry him away without leaving a trace, and then devour him entirely without any searcher disturbing it. Yes it's possible, but not likely. Given all of the millions of people who camp and hike in cougar territories, I have only been able to find a handful of cases where it might have happened before.

ETA having said all that, I still think it's the most convincing theory at this time, if the timeline we have been given is correct.

These are some great thoughts Rayemonde!
I play around with the mountain lion theory in my head quite a bit because it seems anything that DID happen is going to be something that's not likely, if that makes sense?
I don't think the lion snatched him where he was but I think it's possible that he wandered off a fair bit and maybe the loud searches scared him away a bit more? Then I am thinking
it might be possible an animal like that got him while he was wandered off.

I know mountain lions don't attack children much but I get to thinking that there isn't really a lot of kids wandering around out there alone for them to attack. I think a little person like that with the weird noises little ones make and way that toddlers walk might catch a predator animals interest? I'm not sure. I think it's possible.

I lean a lot towards him just wandering off. After following a lot of cases I'm starting to realize how many people aren't found in places like this, and if they are it's months or years later. It seems to me that when a human is lost/dehydrated/exposed to elements etc, we behave in unpredictable ways, travel farther than most would think possible etc. I really think he may have gotten into a crevice somewhere and simply has not been found. I also don't rule out that water, even if they looked.

I'm not sure why but something in this case told my gut that it is something like that versus foul play. I think the parents have some behavior that others are picking up on and I think it's because they probably feel horrendous for going off without him. I can't imagine how they feel.
Finding out that the man who traveled with the family was off with the parents explained a lot to me about why the parents didn't mention or seem to suspect him at all. That sort of tells me that the parents didn't do anything either since I doubt they would around a stranger on a trip.

 

[Rayemonde]

I just found one case where a mountain lion killed a child in Rocky Mountain national park, in 1997. A 10 year old was 4-5 minutes ahead of his parents on a hiking trail and when they caught up with him they found a mountain lion trying to drag him away.
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...tain-lion-cougar-rocky-mountain-national-park

 

[SuperTmo]

Fishing gear? That would make you feel nothing nefarious happened? Is that what you're saying?

Surely you can follow what I'm saying. If they came back to camp and their stuff was hastily left everywhere, then I would believe they were fishing. Or even if their fishing gear was left by the creek. If there was no fishing gear left out because they came back and put it all away first, I find it hard to imagine they suddenly went on a panicked search for their baby.

 

[ILOKAL]

Obviously I can't completely rule out anything, but several things about mountain lion behavior make it a little more difficult for me to put it at the too of my list.

Let me start by saying that I live in Colorado and my family hikes and camps a lot. When we moved here, we immediately began looking into how to handle all kinds of wildlife encounters...from rattlesnakes to mountain lions...and my husband and I review this often with the kids. My understanding is that mountain lions primarily hunt from dusk to dawn and that attacks on people generally correlate to low prey animal populations.

I looked into that a bit for Idaho; due to three mild winters in a row, the elk and deer numbers are very, very high compared to normal. Fawn survival rates for winter 2014-2015 were much higher than average (I think I read more than 90%). There seems to be plenty of normal mountain lion prey available.

Again, I will not say this could not have possibly happened. It seems that no matter what really did happen, the stars had to align just right and in umerable odds had to be defied.

Groundwork, thank you for your post. Actually, I think the fawn survival rate was 80% for that period. What I didn't read, however, is how or if mountain lions are attributed to that survival rate. If you could provide that information in a link, I would be interested in reading about it further. Many, many links have been posted today that tell us that lions will still kill vulnerable, easy prey even when they're not hungry, so that uncontrollable behavior does not change just because "natural" prey is available. Thanks so much if you have that information.