Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #126

[minazoe]

DOuble post
mOO

 

[minazoe]

so what do you think? this guy makes the rounds, cases out different spots, drives around, doesn't stick around long enough to be obvious...waiting for the optimal moment? He was READY..loaded to the gills with his equipment, maybe even filming...so the whole time he was there he was walking around or perched somewhere with all of his stuff in place...what ever that is..clothesline, possible go pro, possible rifle, possible hand gun, knives,, zip ties and god knows what all...and then happens upon his perfect situation...he doesn't even hesitate or seem like he has to work out what he is going to do with 2 girls , one who is probably a pretty good fighter....and yes he has low anxiety, like obviously...but he still is so prepared...maybe overly prepared..overly prepared unless he always knew there would be 2 girls/ victims and not one...

I think there is something about this case that tells LE that this killer is somehow in or around their community and found these two on-line or elsewhere. They know a lot more than we do. I wonder if the FBI is waiting to see him again...see him kill again, it sounds horrible, I know but they have to figure him out and they need more clues about where or who he is.

He may have moved on and left Delphi or the area around there...maybe just sitting in a trailer somewhere...

mOO

 

[minazoe]

adding..

if this guy is a pedophile and he likes this particular age , (pedo's are very specific)... the bridge area might not be a good place to find 13 year old girls alone.

unless you know in advance they will be there.

so maybe he is not a pedophilic necessarily and just a sadistic thrill killer.

I put money he has raped before, and there are females out there who have had experiences with him.

mOO

 

[MistyWaters]

so what do you think? this guy makes the rounds, cases out different spots, drives around, doesn't stick around long enough to be obvious...waiting for the optimal moment? He was READY..loaded to the gills with his equipment, maybe even filming...so the whole time he was there he was walking around or perched somewhere with all of his stuff in place...what ever that is..clothesline, possible go pro, possible rifle, possible hand gun, knives,, zip ties and god knows what all...and then happens upon his perfect situation...he doesn't even hesitate or seem like he has to work out what he is going to do with 2 girls , one who is probably a pretty good fighter....and yes he has low anxiety, like obviously...but he still is so prepared...maybe overly prepared..overly prepared unless he always knew there would be 2 girls/ victims and not one...

I think there is something about this case that tells LE that this killer is somehow in or around their community and found these two on-line or elsewhere. They know a lot more than we do. I wonder if the FBI is waiting to see him again...see him kill again, it sounds horrible, I know but they have to figure him out and they need more clues about where or who he is.

He may have moved on and left Delphi or the area around there...maybe just sitting in a trailer somewhere...

mOO

If waiting for other murders is LE’s best hope of solving this case, the outlook is looking rather dim.

Modern Life Has Made It Easier for Serial Killers to Thrive
“The helter-skelter 1970s and ’80s are remembered as the serial killer’s heyday—think of Ted Bundy, John Wayne Gacy, and David “Son of Sam” Berkowitz. Since then, data suggest, the number of serial killers—defined by the National Institute of Justice as those who commit two or more separate murders, often with a psychological motive and a sadistic sexual component—has plunged, falling 85 percent in three decades; the FBI now says that serial killers account for fewer than 1 percent of killings....”

 

[Falling Down]

Looking at a video on YouTube someone was re-enacting, there was not a clear line of sight to any of the houses on the south bank of the river. The elevation at that point is flat and there were many tree trunk obstructing in between.

Once they went down the gravel bank from the rail road ties, the drop obscures line of sight from houses even more. The only real fear he would have of being seen was from someone on the gravel road/driveway directly below the bridge and he could have glanced left and right when he was right over top that walking towards the girls.

Again, this is why I think this was a planned location based on a smart person casing the area and minimizing the chances of being caught.

It was the perfect spot for him to pull off his fantasy, on a relatively mild February day. I'm convinced he knew the one homeowner there close to where they crossed the creek was not home, and may have done research to figure out they were out-of-town for an extended period. That was the only property/house which had a clear line-of-sight for part of the abduction.

No way he would have tried this during Summer, the vegetation is too thick, there would have been too much foot traffic, and the homeowner would have been home.

JMO

 

[Charlot123]

.

I would agree with the opinion that he is or was local . It is hard to believe that he had no familiarity with this area.
I disagree that he closely knew either girl.
AW has stated that either, or both girls , would have made that known in the audio.

AMOO JMO MOO

I don't know what is in the audio. By "closely" I imply either "a person well-acquainted with one of the girls personally", or "a person who spoke with the girl online long enough to know some details of her family life".

But maybe, he knew the parents themselves.

Of course, it could have been more simple. He did not count on DG coming to pick them up so early, so once the calls came through, he finished the killings sooner than expected. But why does it seem that he can predict the moves and responses of the people around the girls on that day?

This is why I wonder what he trained himself in. Chess, as I have said? Strategy games? Go? Board games? Poker?

As I don't have a specific poi, merely see that he looks old from the video but has an agile brain, I wonder what are his personality traits.

 

[cujenn81]

This is an incredibly insightful article about serial killers:
The Serial-Killer Detector

“A few years ago, I got some people at the F.B.I. to run the question of how many murders in their records are unsolved but have been linked through DNA.” The answer was about fourteen hundred, slightly more than two per cent of the murders in the files they consulted. “Those are just the cases they were able to lock down with DNA,” Hargrove said. “And killers don’t always leave DNA—it’s a gift when you get it. So two per cent is a floor, not a ceiling.”

“Serial killers tend to stick to a killing field. They’re hunting for prey in a concentrated area, which can be defined and examined.” Usually, the hunting ground will be far enough from their homes to conceal where they live, but not so far that the landscape is unfamiliar. The farther criminals travel, the less likely they are to act, a phenomenon that criminologists call distance decay.”

“By noting where killings took place or the bodies were discovered, you can actually create probability distributions.” In his book “Geographic Profiling,” Rossmo notes research that found, among other things, that right-handed criminals tend to turn left when fleeing but throw away evidence to the right, and that most criminals, when hiding in buildings, stay near the outside walls.”

“In 1965, a killing led to an arrest more than ninety-two per cent of the time. In 2016, the number was slightly less than sixty per cent, which was the lowest rate since records started being kept.”

 

[margarita25]

This is an incredibly insightful article about serial killers:
The Serial-Killer Detector

“A few years ago, I got some people at the F.B.I. to run the question of how many murders in their records are unsolved but have been linked through DNA.” The answer was about fourteen hundred, slightly more than two per cent of the murders in the files they consulted. “Those are just the cases they were able to lock down with DNA,” Hargrove said. “And killers don’t always leave DNA—it’s a gift when you get it. So two per cent is a floor, not a ceiling.”

“Serial killers tend to stick to a killing field. They’re hunting for prey in a concentrated area, which can be defined and examined.” Usually, the hunting ground will be far enough from their homes to conceal where they live, but not so far that the landscape is unfamiliar. The farther criminals travel, the less likely they are to act, a phenomenon that criminologists call distance decay.”

“By noting where killings took place or the bodies were discovered, you can actually create probability distributions.” In his book “Geographic Profiling,” Rossmo notes research that found, among other things, that right-handed criminals tend to turn left when fleeing but throw away evidence to the right, and that most criminals, when hiding in buildings, stay near the outside walls.”

“In 1965, a killing led to an arrest more than ninety-two per cent of the time. In 2016, the number was slightly less than sixty per cent, which was the lowest rate since records started being kept.”

Interesting, this article references Rossmo.

(Some posts re: Rossmo, for those not familiar. I had brought this up a couple days ago in another thread and many were not familiar; here are some posts for reference, see my detailed comments re: Rigel Software and “THE HOUND OF DATAPOINTS”:
Geographic Profiling

eta/short snippet, see above link for full reference:

“"Geographic profiling isn't about prediction," Rossmo says. "Efforts to predict the location of crimes don't show a lot of focus." Instead of pushing forward into an unknown future, Rossmo's method pulls back to an origin, to the time and place the crimes were hatched. A center.

"You know those sprinklers where the little metal thing hits the water stream and it sprays around in a circle?" Rossmo asks. "You could look at that and say, There's a good probability that the next drop of water will land within this ring,' but it'd be hard to know precisely where. If you took the sprinkler away, though, and I looked at the pattern of water, I could tell you where the sprinkler was."Last edited by margarita25; 11-14-2015 at 10:41 PM.""

 

[Deleted member 102539]

“Serial killers tend to stick to a killing field. They’re hunting for prey in a concentrated area, which can be defined and examined.” Usually, the hunting ground will be far enough from their homes to conceal where they live, but not so far that the landscape is unfamiliar. The farther criminals travel, the less likely they are to act, a phenomenon that criminologists call distance decay.”

What, if a smart killer studied crime for years, reading, talking to experts, consuming videos, only for his goal to become the undisputed no. 1 in serial killing, by doing all these typical things differently.

 

[Deleted member 102539]

This is why I wonder what he trained himself in. Chess, as I have said? Strategy games? Go? Board games? Poker?

bbm
This, IMO.

 

[Deleted member 102539]

It was the perfect spot for him to pull off his fantasy, on a relatively mild February day. I'm convinced he knew the one homeowner there close to where they crossed the creek was not home, and may have done research to figure out they were out-of-town for an extended period. That was the only property/house which had a clear line-of-sight for part of the abduction.

No way he would have tried this during Summer, the vegetation is too thick, there would have been too much foot traffic, and the homeowner would have been home.

JMO

2-3 beer with some locals, some skillful asking about BG's allegedly "acquaintances" in the house and he would have known all, what he had to know. IMO

 

[Deleted member 102539]

However, they might have known him through a loose connection, but unable to place/identify him out of context to his normal setting.

opinion and speculation only

bbm
Thank you! Exactly! IMO

 

[FrostOwl]

Perhaps the killer was a person who felt "he had to kill to get rid of his inner demons/voices", and that it was only an unlucky coincidence that it was Abby and Libby whom he killed, as he probably believed he could subdue two children. Had he instead met two adults that day, he would have waited to another day. There was a double murder here in Sweden in 2004, where a young boy and a middle-aged woman were killed on the street, and there were no connection between the killer and his victims, and there had not been any specific reason why he had chosen his victims, just that he saw them as "easy targets". It took 16 years to solve it.
DNA Solves Cold Cases/Parabon Nanolabs & GED/Match.

 

[minazoe]

FG, I do think he is analytical. I think if he had a camera , especially a go-pro we can assume that he is literate in using technology. I think this would put him in a younger age range...also if he had such a camera they are several hundred dollars. so he has some money to spend. Some have speculated that he had a mouth piece in his mouth that you use to control the camera which you can wear almost anywhere, on a hat on your chest etc. and is usually used to record your sporting experience, such as skiing, fishing, windsurfing etc...

NOTE. No one has been able to say he absolutely has this camera..it's just a possibility and when I look at the very close up magnified shots, I agree that it looks like he might.

we don't really know how the girls died. they could have been shot from the deer stand by an accomplice for all we know, hence the running around and crossing the river. ( which never makes any sense to me unless the girls got loose...and he looks way too encumbered by his kill kit to chase two physically fit teenage girls.

this case is an absolute mess, they need to find him. There is a killer in the area. mOO

 

[minazoe]

Perhaps the killer was a person who felt "he had to kill to get rid of his inner demons/voices", and that it was only an unlucky coincidence that it was Abby and Libby whom he killed, as he probabloughy believed he could subdue two children. Had he instead met two adults that day, he would have waited to another day. There was a double murder here in Sweden in 2004, where a young boy and a middle-aged woman were killed on the street, and there were no connection between the killer and his victims, and there had not been any specific reason why he had chosen his victims, just that he saw them as "easy targets". It took 16 years to solve it.
DNA Solves Cold Cases/Parabon Nanolabs & GED/Match.

I feel he was way too organized to be hearing and acting on voices..also so nonchalant..I think most killings like A &L are sexual in nature. Interesting theory though. mOO

 

[StarryStarryNight]

“In 1965, a killing led to an arrest more than ninety-two per cent of the time. In 2016, the number was slightly less than sixty per cent, which was the lowest rate since records started being kept.”

This is a very interesting article, but this particular stat is fascinating. You would think these numbers would be reversed with all the advances in forensics and scientific testing and of course DNA. I wonder why the big drop. Is it because the nature of the crimes themselves has changed?
Is it due to changes in police investigative techniques?

 

[Kittybunny]

It's just heartbreaking that there seems to have been no progress in this case for quite a while. In catching up and reading here on a few different aspects of this, I really believe there are two factors that greatly impacted the solvability of this case.

1. An outdoor crime scene. The complexities of gathering evidence in this type of environment must be so high. Well yes, the FBI was there and of course has developed techniques for collecting evidence in this type of scene for years, it doesn't negate the fact that they still must have a hard time with this. And then of course you have woods and trails with years of debris and natural items that may or may not have been touched by a killer - a tree, for example, can you even get fingerprints from it? - that you have to sort through, what is related to the crime and what isn't? Discarded garbage, a cigarette butt, a footprint, when was it from? Unlike a crime scene in a house for example, there are obvious places to look and get evidence from, obviously the killer got in and out somehow, a footprint in blood, etc. And of course if the killer doesn't have DNA or fingerprints in a database it's pretty much an impossible task to use evidence gathered other than ruling out immediate family.

2. Revisiting the whole RL arrest, it reminded me that at some point one of the officers stated in a newspaper article that they were going to have to investigate anything that they found when they were pursuing tips and leads in this case. I remember cringing at the time reading that because I thought, what incentive is there for anyone to come forward if they have any sort of spotty past or current drug use? And then the fact that RL actually went to jail for quite a bit of time, I know he had alcohol trouble and did violate the law, but I think that would definitely keep some people from speaking up. I have seen in other cases where LE has pretty much said "we don't care about anything else that we might find, like marijuana or anything, we really just want to solve this case." If they are still waiting for that "one tip" they may be waiting forever.

It may still be worth putting out a statement in their next official update to the effect that they don't really care about the persons record or issues but at this point, it's probably too little too late.

And don't even get me started on that whole sketch fiasco.

 

[Yemelyan]

This is a very interesting article, but this particular stat is fascinating. You would think these numbers would be reversed with all the advances in forensics and scientific testing and of course DNA. I wonder why the big drop. Is it because the nature of the crimes themselves has changed?
Is it due to changes in police investigative techniques?

It's probably due to the fact that prior to DNA LE didn't have to build as strong of a case to push through convictions for crimes people may or may not have committed. Also, there was probably less oversight into methods of interrogation and how often confessions were coerced and then used to convict people.

IMO it remains common for an experienced interrogator to be able to coerce a false confession from the right type of suspect which is why in the Delphi case LE keep mentioning they are trying to avoid letting too many details about the crime trickle out.

 

[Charlot123]

adding..

if this guy is a pedophile and he likes this particular age , (pedo's are very specific)... the bridge area might not be a good place to find 13 year old girls alone.

unless you know in advance they will be there.

so maybe he is not a pedophilic necessarily and just a sadistic thrill killer.

I put money he has raped before, and there are females out there who have had experiences with him.

mOO

BBM


This is it! And maybe if they only heard one tiny detail, they’d call. Sexual behavior is another signature.

 

[Charlot123]

What, if a smart killer studied crime for years, reading, talking to experts, consuming videos, only for his goal to become the undisputed no. 1 in serial killing, by doing all these typical things differently.

Yes, but then he still wants to be known, in some way, right? He can’t just keep a score, he wants to be appreciated. How would he boast about his crimes? What do you think?