Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #93

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I think this guy is disorganized, based on exactly what you say: “He took a big chance.”

An attack on two teenage girls in broad daylight, is the definition of reckless and brazen.

I think this would have been over quickly, and likely included a great deal of violence.

This is a hallmark of disorganized offenders.

He couldn’t use wit and charm to get what what he wanted; he needed to use fear and force (perhaps a weapon), to gain compliance.

A more organized offender wouldn’t take these risks, or have to commit a crime this way.

I don’t think there was much planning here, or that he selected these girls out in advance.

He’s probably not smart enough for that.

I think this was fairly spontaneous, as he likely has poor self control.

He’s not some criminal mastermind, rather, he’s one lucky SOB.
Yea earlier I said kinda the same too, if this guy was organized it was 100% opportunity and or circumstance. He attacked a short distance from a road, didn't abduct them if he did indeed have a firearm and control over them nor did he make great efforts to conceal or destroy evidence. I am assuming that if there was a sexual aspect to the crime it was by proxy if that makes sense. This guy may have been a career criminal and just very compulsive. It is often the story in Cold Cases that go hot. People with criminal tendencies are impulsive often violent and psychologically manipulative people. <modsnip - off topic>
 
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It sounds like they noticed some creepy guy was in the area, maybe following them, but didn't think much of it.
They obviously did not know he was stalking them until the very last moment.
Who would? There are plenty of creeps around but we usually don't assume they will murder us. Imo

That's not likely, the bridge is quite long, and from the photos and video you can see that while crossing the creek they weren't yet being followed however by the time they were reaching the end of the bridge, BG had caught up to them, the video was taken looking back towards the man who was obviously gaining on them, it would have been impossible not to notice someone behind you over that much of a distance. I've added a map to show the relative locations to make it easier to see this.
 

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I think a crime like this by a middle age male against two 14 yr old girls almost definitely points to SA being the likely motivation.

I also am not convinced that it actually occurred and I agree there could be various reasons why it didn't ultimately take place.

I had the same thoughts, I really thought SA must have happened, but I’m not so sure given the little time he had.

I think the crime was probably over within an hour. Moo
 
I’m not sure I’m remembering the name right but does anyone remember DigitalGlobe? or was it called GlobalEarth? I first heard about it when US troops first went into Iraq. You were able to get on the website site and see the military vehicles traveling across desert in real time satellite images. Within a few days it was taken offline or made private so the public couldn’t view it. I wonder if something like this is used by LE? FBI? They could see a car at a certain place at a certain time. It wouldn’t be close enough to tell the make/model and maybe not even the right color but you’d be able to see that there was a vehicle, when it got there, and when it left.
 
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So I skipped ahead about 3 pages so don't know if this was covered but I listened to the podcast someone linked and it was stated in the podcast by the former FBI profilers that the first (now abandoned) sketch of the suspect was someone the police arrested (a sex offender) recently and he was determined not to be the killer, which is why they switched to the new sketch. Anyone have a link for this information? I haven't heard of it before. TIA
Then if the first sketch was of a sex offender, that would lead me to believe they may have been assaulted...
 
My thoughts on getting the girls both to comply:

BG states that they are not supposed to be on the bridge, may have used a badge or identified himself as authority.

States that there is another way of crossing "down the hill" Girls may be hesitant, he says you could get in trouble. "Guys, Down the hill"

I also think he may have carried them one by one across the river. This gets one to stay on the opposite bank while he gets the other across and on the second trip he can then brandish a weapon and make commands.

This is MOO and it changes from moment to moment.
 
This is so interesting. Can I ask what about the crime leads you to believe he has the capacity to reach level 5?

That's a complicated question. Based on my own ideas of the suspect from everything I have read, and especially the Monday PC, I feel this suspect is not a sociopath/psychopath, is highly intelligent and friendly, has familial support, is embedded in supportive religious community, has/had a very serious mental health issue that is probably treatable such Major Depression with psychotic features, and has managed to function normally since the murder. My take is that there was no sexual assault based on time factors. I think that this suspect probably has resources to get help.
 
I think a crime like this by a middle age male against two 14 yr old girls almost definitely points to SA being the likely motivation.

I also am not convinced that it actually occurred and I agree there could be various reasons why it didn't ultimately take place.

I think the intent was there as well, and maybe occurred. Sometimes LE will say no sexual assault to quell those rumors but they won’t comment in this case, which makes me uncomfortable. I can’t think of other likely motives involving young girls. Jmo
 
That's a complicated question. Based on my own ideas of the suspect from everything I have read, and especially the Monday PC, I feel this suspect is not a sociopath/psychopath, is highly intelligent and friendly, has familial support, is embedded in supportive religious community, has/had a very serious mental health issue that is probably treatable such Major Depression with psychotic features, and has managed to function normally since the murder. My take is that there was no sexual assault based on time factors. I think that this suspect probably has resources to get help.
Do you think he feels regret and or sympathy for the crime and families? Do you think there’s a chance he’ll turn himself in out of guilt?
 
That's not likely, the bridge is quite long, and from the photos and video you can see that while crossing the creek they weren't yet being followed however by the time they were reaching the end of the bridge, BG had caught up to them, the video was taken looking back towards the man who was obviously gaining on them, it would have been impossible not to notice someone behind you over that much of a distance. I've added a map to show the relative locations to make it easier to see this.

Your map is incorrect on at least three points:

What you referred to as "northeast" is actually "southeast", the drop-off point was at the trailhead parking lot, and the time was "around 1:30" (per Kelsi).
 
Yeah, this whole case is baffling. I’ve read that LE says they have DNA but I don’t think they do. I hope I’m wrong. If they had a definite suspect and DNA then they could get his DNA from a dropped cigarette, fast food straw, garbage etc.

MOO they have some way of eliminating suspects.
DN was being looked last year for a short time, and then when test were due back they dropped their interest.
I don't know if there is such a thing as a poor DNA sample.
One with with enough information to tell you who it is NOT.
But not enough information definitely who it IS.
 
When he says what sounds like "Guys Down The Hill" why did the recording stop. If he was threatening them down the hill I would think the girls might have screamed or protested or pleaded with him. Maybe there is more that isn't being released for reasons.

Also where was the phone actually found did they drop the phone hoping someone would find it ?
If not I'm thinking he didn't know how cell phones work and what they can actually do. And as such he didn't see a need to destroy or take the phone itself. Which makes me think he was an older person. Probably didn't have kids of his own somewhat of a loner, never married, and probably grew up and lived in the same area for most of his life.

He must of left DNA possibly, a shoe print in the mud etc. It's hard to believe he hasn't been caught yet or that he soon will be.

By the way I keep seeing people refer to a BG and MOO what do they mean ?


Bridge Guy and My Own Opinion.
 
ETA: lenthy story at link includes interview with Kelsi German

Halfway Across: The Delphi Murders
2/1/19

David Lambkin is one of the nation’s foremost experts in cold-case homicide investigations. Now retired, he was the officer in charge of the Los Angeles Police Department’s first cold-case unit, a then-novel approach that has since become common in large police departments. Lambkin has analyzed thousands of murder cases in his career. When it comes to the murders of Abby and Libby, his view is concise.

“No way that’s a cold case; it’s continuing and ongoing,” he says. “In L.A., we defined a cold-case homicide as any unsolved murder committed more than five years ago that has no significant leads and is no longer being investigated by area detectives based on solvability and/or workload.”

By that metric, the case certainly doesn’t fit. Riley says there are currently between three and five state troopers working it on a daily basis, and that the Carroll County Sheriff’s Department, Delphi city police, and FBI remain actively involved as well.

“We’re always working new leads,” he says, dismissing the idea that the investigation has gone dormant.

That work has involved a tight-lipped approach, though. On Libby’s cellphone, a video and additional audio exist but haven’t been shared, despite the prolonged period without an arrest.

“We continually evaluate that,” Riley says when asked about the possibility of releasing more evidence from the phone. “We talk about it once or twice a week. But at this point in time, no, we won’t be releasing more. We don’t want to put all of our cards on the table.”

Police also requested that the autopsy results be sealed, leaving a situation where the cause of death is identified as homicide, but the manner of the killings in unknown. In Delphi—and around the world on social media—people have grumbled about this approach, arguing that the more information is released, the better the chances of a successful tip leading to a conviction.

Lambkin, the cold case expert, disagrees with such complaints.

“If it was up to me, I’d have every autopsy sealed, because there’s always something there that only the perpetrator will know,” he says. “The location of the wounds is really important. I don’t want people to know injury information on a big case, because you’ll get people confessing who had nothing to do with it. Why does the public need to know?”

One of the greatest potential aids for the case is a resource that wasn’t available at the time of the murders. A state law change effective January 1, 2018—nearly a year after the slayings—allows police to take DNA samples from anyone arrested for a felony offense. Those samples are then searched against national databases for matches, and recorded. Previously, DNA samples were taken only from those convicted of a felony. Within the first quarter of 2018, Indiana investigators got 72 hits from arrestee-sample DNA.

Lambkin credits this change to many successful prosecutions in California, which went to an arrestee-sample approach in 2009. “The case-to-case hits skyrocketed after we expanded who got into that system,” he says. Amid all of those hits was a startling realization to homicide detectives. “A lot of these serial rapists and killers float under the radar, and people always expect that if they’ve been arrested before, it’s for violent crime. That’s absolutely what we expected. But what we found out was that two-thirds of the matches we were getting on rapes and murders were people who had been arrested for property crimes, drugs, or white-collar crimes.”

Lambkin offers one other point of consideration for those who feel the pace of the case suggests hopelessness.

“There’s a chance they’ve got a suspect who is already in custody somewhere else,” he says. “I’m not saying that they do, but I can say from experience that if you believe that’s the case, then you don’t need to rush. Even if you’ve got DNA, you want to be able to prove your case independent of DNA. Prove your case and exhaust everything else.”
 
Please don't vilify an entire state. Rehab facilities exist in every state.
It's not a vilification. I am a citizen of California. Career criminals have that moniker because of their own actions not the states. What I am saying, prison facilities by and large have little impact on the reform of convicts, not your short term I messed up guys, hardened criminals. Someone who may have never been convicted of an assault but has been convicted of 400 burglaries over their life still can be just as dangerous, cunning and manipulative as any other killer or potential killer. The state has no responsibilities to rehabilitate any criminals unless it is written into law, they operate by paperwork and procedure. I am saying it's hard to teach old dogs new tricks. Convicts and career criminals use rehabilitation to their advantage by learning how to manipulate people, victims and the system. No fault of the systems.
 
Just my current speculation and it could change at any moment lol

I think many of us are giving this way too much credit.

A prolific serial killer wouldn't take the risk of murdering two young girls in broad daylight near a public hiking trail.

This guy is likely just a sick twisted local who has alot of deep dark resentment for even being born. I don't believe he is at all sophisticated and I don't believe he is smart.

I think the event transpired rather quickly and I believe he high tailed it out of there before anyone was the wiser.

I think he was off the radar bc he's not in the public eye and he's not somebody that would draw alot of attention.

I think he probably doesn't have much going for him as far as a career and we will probably find out that to him this is his crowning achievement.

Personally I think he was extremely lucky and I think his luck is close to running out.....


Co-sign everything you just said. I in no way think this dude is a criminal mastermind. I think he got lucky. I think he may have had plans to take the girls somewhere else, or to sexually assault them, but when they fought back or ran he killed them. I think their deaths were quick and happened not long after they went down the hill. I also think that Abby and Libby were chosen at random. I don't think he overheard their conversation somewhere or knew that they were going to be there. I think they were just in the wrong place at the wrong time and he underestimated how easily it would be to attack two young girls.
 
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