HI everyone!
You are all awesome people to be around and to read. This is my first time posting so I hope I at least have something to talk about
I was considering the difference between this being an opportunistic and random attack...as opposed to someone known to the victims. This is my thought process:
If this was a random attack, the suspect would have had to wake up in the morning, decide to go to this location for a "walk" in the afternoon and either be carrying a kit of equipment on his person the entire time OR have it handy in a nearby location (eg a car). Then he would have to double back to fetch his stuff and double back again to commit the crime.
I have a couple of problems with this scenario, the first one being that the offender would have to be VERY certain that the girls were not also accompanied by another adult who may be fishing or hunting nearby. He would have to be sure that the girls weren't part of a larger group of teenagers and he would have to be sure that they werent about to meet anyone in the very near future who might raise the alarm or interrupt him. Also if he pulled a gun or knife to walk to the girls to a second location he would have to be pretty darned sure that he wouldnt bump into another hiker on the way to where they were being taken. Hysterical 14 year olds, I think, would totally lose it if there was another adult and they were in danger.
It also seems like a very long shot to hang out in an out of the way, pretty much unfrequented place to wait and see if your perfect victims arrive. If a murderer was on the hunt for a victim it seems that there would be other places that might yield more results. Especially if the suspect knows the kids are off school that day.
It seems to make more sense that the suspect knew the victims. He knew where they were going to be. He knew that they wouldnt be supervised. He knew how much time he would have before the alarm would be raised. If he has things stuffed into his jacket, the man came prepared. Also, he was obviously able to take on 2 healthy girls and yet when you look at the picture of the suspect, he really doesn't look like he is in top physical condition. He looks like he could be outrun quite easily by teenagers. I don't know if a perpetrator of such a crime would carry enough equipment for 2 victims just in case his intended victim wasn't alone.
Teenagers are unlikely to be lured away by a pet story or something like that. Girls especially are very wary of strange men in a lonely place. I think we all have it drummed in to us. I think it's highly likely they would keep their distance.
If i look at the photo of the suspect again, He is certainly wearing clothes to disguise his features. what if it was to disguise his features from the victims?
Perhaps, if it was someone known to one or both of the girls it is possible that they didn't recognise him until he said "Hey! Its me!" By then he is awfully close to them and in this scenario, they arent running away or raising the alarm and are very happy to go to another location with the suspect and wouldn't think to alert anyone if they ran into other hikers etc...Also if the suspects plan is interrupted by another hiker or person he can abandon his plans with no harm done.
From the suspects point of view, He has enough equipment for 2 victims. He has a tight timeline before his crime can be discovered. If he knows the victims, hes more than likely local, so he knows the area. He knows the expected traffic and he knows the more secluded places in that area.
This is only my opinion and though process