I've been following Lauren's case since the beginning, but this is the first time I've posted, mainly because most of the things I believe happened, or speculate about, have been discussed already. The arrest of Messel and the information given Hayden have obviously created new things to discuss about this case, and led to a lot of new speculation so I decided to finally weigh in.
I don't think Messel is involved, and I think Hayden's claims are absurd, but I do believe both are worth investigating. Any evidence is worth considering at this point. That being said, I cannot understand why the white truck is coming up again. While I've followed this case relatively closely since the beginning, I have not read every single thread, so maybe I'm missing something, but what about LE's story regarding the white truck doesn't make sense? If they were unable to get a license plate number or any distinctive markings, how would they find the truck w.o the public's help? White pickup trucks are relatively common vehicles, they cannot possibly investigate EVERY white pickup truck w.o more identifying info...without a license plate, they wouldn't even know for sure it came from Indiana. The amount of time that would take is absurd...it would be much easier to go to the public and hope someone comes forward. This has certainly been done before.
I can sort of see how people can see a body in the back of the truck (personally I don't, but that's just me) but you can trick your mind to see just about anything, especially when you're looking at a black and white surveillance photo. LE, as far as I know, clearly vetted and cleared this guy, which makes me believe they have 100% eliminated the truck, particularly since they came out and told the public they have. They haven't even formally named all of the POIs (if I remember correctly) so coming to the public to formally clear someone makes me think they know for sure there is no connection.
I have gone back and forth on what I believe happened to Lauren, and there is no denying she was a high risk target that would have been perfect to abduct. My problem with that theory is, if you are to believe she was abducted, it must have been sometime after leaving JR's. That means that she had to have been able to walk out of JR's w.o help, AND that JR was concerned enough about her safety to administer a sobriety test, but not concerned that she had no shoes, no cell phone, and no keys. If she went home w.o keys and a cellphone, then she probably wasn't as sober as JR says she was, since she'd have no way of getting into her apt, or calling her roommate to let her in. It's possible he feels guilty for letting her walk alone and lied about the sobriety test to make himself look better, but unlikely. Personally, I don't think she was in any condition to walk from JR's. I have been around people who are extremely drunk, drunk enough that I was somewhat worried about their safety, and I have NEVER seen anyone so drunk they fell onto the pavement w.o attempting to break their fall, who were then able to pass a sobriety test, however poorly administered, 2 hours later. I don't even think it's possible. If we believe what MB and JR are saying, Lauren went from so drunk she was unable to walk, to talking/walking/trying to party within an hour. I don't believe it for a second. I will believe CR's amnesia claim before I will believe Lauren was passing sobriety tests and trying to party w. no shoes or phone after hitting her head on the pavement multiple times.
I think the key to solving this case is trying to figure out how/why JR involved himself. CR was the last person we can 100 percent verify was w. Lauren, but he gets to claim amnesia while MB and JR are left scrambling (and failing) to get their stories straight? MB was obviously going to get involved one way or another since he was CR's roommate and it appeared they were heading back to his apt, but why involve JR? Either they are telling the truth and CR did make it back to his apt w. Lauren, and MB took her to JR's, or they are lying. If we believe they are lying, then they had something on JR that forced him to be the one to claim he and he alone was the last one to see Lauren. I can see JR covering for CR to an extent, but claiming you are the last person Lauren was w. before she disappeared is a dangerous position to but yourself in, especially considering CR gets to claim amnesia and gets a free pass from answering any questions, while JR is left explaining. I can see no conceivable reason he would put himself in this position, unless it was true, or he was involved.
My personal belief is that Lauren died of either a drug or alcohol overdose (or a combination of both) OR as a result of intoxication and head injuries related to falling on the pavement. I think it's possible she died before even getting to 5N, but i DEFINITELY think she was never at JR's, at least not alive. MB got involved when she either made it to his apt and died there, or died en route and CR asked him for help/involved him in some way. I think JR got involved because they knew she had been w. him earlier, and knew/suspected he had given her drugs. I think it's also possible they made it back to 5N and Lauren consumed more drugs/alcohol and died there, but I just can't see her being in any condition to. It's also possible (but even less likely) that CR and MB are telling the truth, and Lauren made it to JR's, where she did more drugs/alcohol and died. CR could be telling the truth about his amnesia- he WAS in a physical altercation, and he had been drinking all night. Those two events could cause memory loss by themselves...combined they definitely could. I still think he knows more than he says, but was told to claim amnesia because it would be impossible to prove he didn't have it, and it would be one less person to worry about cracking/messing up the story.
The one thing that trips me up and leads me back to random abduction is how and where they successfully disposed of the body w.o being caught on camera. They weren't natives of Indiana and w. the exception of possibly MB, had been drinking and/or doing drugs all night. I believe I read CR's car and apartment were searched for sure, not sure about JR's.
Lots of possibilities for sure..unfortunately I expect this one to be cold for awhile, and if it's ever solved, it'll be by chance. 5N definitely did themselves a huge favor by lawyering up immediately, can't see them offering any information anytime soon, if ever. For the sake of Lauren's family, I hope I'm wrong.
