IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 - #6

[jjenny]

The timeline thins out considerably after 2:51 a.m., when police say they have only witness accounts of her movements -- including the last sight of her at 4:30 a.m.

Here’s the timeline:
1:46 a.m. — Enters Kilroy’s Sports Bar.
2:27 a.m. — Exits Kilroy’s
2:48 a.m. — Enters a North/South alley between 10th and College Apartments and 10th and College Village.
2:51 a.m. — Exits the alley, heading toward an empty lot north of 10th & College Village Apartments.
4:30 a.m. — Last seen at 11th and College Ave.

http://www.indystar.com/article/201...pierer?odyssey=tab|mostpopular|text|FRONTPAGE

That 3:15-3:30 video never made sense anyway. It would mean she hung around in the alley for a really long time. Which obviously with a revised timeline, she did not.

 

[jjenny]

... Also, didn't LE say that the last definate sighting is of her is her leaving her apartment bldg with CR... and that they don't have video of her at his apartment.

How are they going to have video of her at his apartment, if his apartment doesn't have cameras?

 

[eqh]

Yes, exactly. It's a tool for police to use and try make someone confess, or see if they can rule someone out. Relatives of abducted victims frequently agree to take a polygraph.

But I'd say passing a polygraph isn't enough to rule someone out IF there is evidence suggesting that they might be involved. I doubt police give up on an actual suspect if he passes polygraph.

 

[jjenny]

But I'd say passing a polygraph isn't enough to rule someone out IF there is evidence suggesting that they might be involved. I doubt police give up on an actual suspect if he passes polygraph.

Many times they do. Despite the fact, that like you said, there can be false negatives and false positives. The parents of missing children take it all the time.

 

[StrayKat]

jjenny... sorry, you are right. Sounded to me like there were other video cameras that would have caught her in between the alley and his apartment bldg.

 

[Ven]

So what is the % of false negatives / false positives? How accurate are they?

If someone is innocent, why would they ever take a test that has say a 20% chance of making them look guilty?

 

[pinkinablueworld]

2:51 am is the last time she was seen on video. The 4:30am "last seen" in the timeline is only based on JR's statement, is that correct?

I can't get past the confrontations between the boys last seen with LS and her boyfriend and his friends.

Do you think the police department is doing a good job? I wonder how many students/friends they have interviewed. You would think the kids would talk amongst themselves if there is a lot of police questioning/pressure. You would think if it was a random kidnapping there would be lots of talk of fear of it happening again. Anybody know what the word around campus is?

 

[ingra1327]

That 3:15-3:30 video never made sense anyway. It would mean she hung around in the alley for a really long time. Which obviously with a revised timeline, she did not.

IMO there is nothing obvious about what she did or did not do after 2:50 am. We just don't have it on video tape (that we know of).

 

[eqh]

So what is the % of false negatives / false positives? How accurate are they?

If someone is innocent, why would they ever take a test that has say a 20% chance of making them look guilty?

Well, it is hard to get a consensus but I think 80-90% accuracy for innocents would be fairly good in most situations. Some researchers are more cynical than that. The APA and other scientific bodies have said that there is not enough evidence to support its use in a court of law, and courts have generally agreed.

I do recall a study in which a bunch of 'guilty' people were given tips to control their physiological signs (e.g. bite your tongue during the control questions) and the polygraph didn't do better than chance.

 

[Rhyme & Reason]

Is riding in the bed of a truck illegal in Indiana?

I believe it is in Washington... if it's illegal there, I'd doubt that a kidnapper would put her there as it would be bait for cops to pull them over.

I don't know about Indiana, but it is illegal here in California.

 

[jjenny]

IMO there is nothing obvious about what she did or did not do after 2:50 am. We just don't have it on video tape (that we know of).

We know she went from her apartment to CR's apartment. The new timeline makes much more sense than what police was saying earlier, that she was on video at 3:15-3:30. Now they are saying that was wrong, and she was on video before 3 am. Which is when her purse and key were found. So the new timeline makes much more sense.

 

[concerned-in-btown]

JR says he saw her on foot eastbound on 11th toward College and then turning right around the corner. Qualters today said "that cannot be corroborated by video evidence." A 4:15am call was made from JR's phone to DR. JR says it was Lauren, not him who made the call. JR high-tailed it back to Michigan.

I will bet the ranch that she is talking directly to JR, the man with the high-priced attorney.

Have they searched JR's car? If there are indeed video cameras positioned to capture LS leaving on foot eastbound toward college - and they did not pick her up then I really suspect she either
1-was removed (dead or alive) via a car parked under or near the building
or
2-the white truck was called at 4:15 to come help remove her

Either way, if JR did indeed get the hell out of dodge so quickly then perhaps B-town is not where LE should be looking? But it is sickening to think about how much potential space there is to dispose of someone between here and Michigan.

Just my thought anyway.

 

[jjenny]

There is no video camera at JR's apartments. We have local posters who went around, found the cameras in the alley and other places, and posted the photos on these threads.
If there was a videocamera set to capture her as she was leaving JR's apartment, we would know about it.

 

[concerned-in-btown]

By the way...last night on the HT website someone posted a comment that there were several ambulances and fire trucks in front of Smallwood along with a huge crowd of people. I never heard anything more about it. Btown (or any other locals) did you hear anything about that?

 

[concerned-in-btown]

There is no video camera at JR's apartments. We have local posters who went around, found the cameras in the alley and other places, and posted the photos on these threads.
If there was a videocamera set to capture her as she was leaving JR's apartment, we would know about it.

So we should not be surprised that they cannot use video to corroborate JR's story about how the evening ended? (serious question, not sarcastic)

 

[ingra1327]

We know she went from her apartment to CR's apartment. The new timeline makes much more sense than what police was saying earlier, that she was on video at 3:15-3:30. Now they are saying that was wrong, and she was on video before 3 am. Which is when her purse and key were found. So the new timeline makes much more sense.

We only know that CR and MB said that she was at the apartment. I believe they are telling the truth, but it isn't the same type of evidence as being captured on a video camera, and I think the new timeline reiterates that point.

ETA: "“Basically, the videos do show her going toward the other apartment, but there’s not video directly on that apartment,” he said. “So, that’s the last video we have.”
http://www.heraldtimesonline.com/stories/2011/06/09/news.635642.sto

 

[coltsgal]

I posted this in the last thread, but I didn't see if anyone had the chance to answer. I know that we do not know the answer to some of these questions, but I think that some of you may know the answer to some of them and maybe I missed an article link.

1. Do any of JW's frat brothers that were involved in the confrontation live at smallwood?

2. If no, why were they there? Especially curious as to why they were in the lobby of the 5th floor. (i think thats what was reported.) How did they get in? I believe they need a key card, right? Why weren't they in the downstairs lobby?

3. Does LS live on the floor that the confrontation occured?

4. Were the frat guys already on that floor when LS and CR got off the elevator, or did they follow them up there?

5. Were these guys at kilroys?

My whole purpose is to find out why the frat guys were at smallwood if none of them lived there. Did they follow LS home from kilroys, or were they waiting there for her?

 

[eqh]

I posted this in the last thread, but I didn't see if anyone had the chance to answer. I know that we do not know the answer to some of these questions, but I think that some of you may know the answer to some of them and maybe I missed an article link.

1. Do any of JW's frat brothers that were involved in the confrontation live at smallwood?

2. If no, why were they there? Especially curious as to why they were in the lobby of the 5th floor. (i think thats what was reported.) How did they get in? I believe they need a key card, right? Why weren't they in the downstairs lobby?

3. Does LS live on the floor that the confrontation occured?

4. Were the frat guys already on that floor when LS and CR got off the elevator, or did they follow them up there?

5. Were these guys at kilroys?

My whole purpose is to find out why the frat guys were at smallwood if none of them lived there. Did they follow LS home from kilroys, or were they waiting there for her?

Anyone feel like snooping around on Google or Facebook to see if there is a roster of frat brothers?

 

[jjenny]

So we should not be surprised that they cannot use video to corroborate JR's story about how the evening ended? (serious question, not sarcastic)

Yes, we shouldn't be surprised.

 

[cluciano63]

I took a polygraph years ago about money missing at work, and was extremely nervous and scared, but still passed, as I did not do it...
I pretty much trust them.
In any case, I sure would take one to help out a grieving parent.