6m ago
Jason Burke
The chances of the truce being extended much beyond 10 days appear slim, analysts say.
One reason is that both sides are running out of hostages or prisoners whom they can free relatively painlessly. The Palestinians released from Israeli jails so far are mainly women and children. So, too, are the hostages freed by
Hamas in Gaza. In the brutal calculations of such things, neither category includes “high value” individuals. Among the hostages, these would include military personnel. Among the prisoners, it may mean high-profile political leaders, those accused of very serious crimes and others thought to endanger Israel’s security.
One possibility is that the current ceasefire could be extended to include elderly and sick people among the remaining 180 or so hostages and the thousands of Palestinians in Israeli jails. But that would postpone, not prevent, the coming trial of strength.
Nour Odeh, an analyst and commentator based in Ramallah, said that phase 2 would not be a continuation of phase 1. “[This] is when we get into the hardball. The civilian hostages is one thing, but the soldiers is another.
Hamas have said all along they want ‘all for all’ [all the hostages for all the prisoners in Israel] but I don’t think [Benjamin] Netanyahu will accept such a high price.”
She added: “The likelihood of a resumption of bombardment and also a ground offensive in the south [of Gaza] continues to loom large.”
To reconcile the apparently conflicting goals of freeing the hostages and “crushing” Hamas, Israeli officials and many analysts say military pressure is the only way to force the organisation to make concessions – despite the cost in civilian life and harm to Israel’s international reputation.
Read more
Hostage talks show a battered Hamas is far from down and out
Israel says Palestinians have been freed after nine women, a child and two foreign nationals were handed to the Red Cross
www.theguardian.com