"If you kill one Hamas fighter, a jihadist,
three new ones take his place:
cousins, brothers, and even sisters or wives.
It will be very difficult for Israel to eliminate Hamas from the Gaza Strip.
Interview with an International affairs analyst, former ambassador in Afghanistan who performed military and diplomatic service in the Balkans, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2004–2014.
Is Hamas already an army?
Hamas gained organizational, technical and military means to transform into an army. From terrorist means, such as suicide bombings on buses, they switched to a martial style.
On October 7, they fired about a thousand rockets within an hour - this first salvo was impressive. After crossing the Israeli border, Hamas fighters entered not only civilian kibbutzim, but also Israeli military bases and police stations.
They have shown that they can threaten the Israeli state, even temporarily.
For a moment, the terrorists turned into an army occupying hostile territory. Israel cannot allow this to happen again.
So these are no longer random militias, but Hamas is not a regular army either.
Hamas fighters do not have tanks or combat vehicles, but they are not primitive like the Taliban in Afghanistan, who ran around in slippers with 'kalakhs' on a string.
Footage from the October 7 attack shows that Hamas has modern equipment:
good American-made rifles and bulletproof vests.
It is clear that they have made good use of the arms trade market.
Maybe even equipment left in Afghanistan by the US Army that is now circulating around the world?
It is probably best to call Hamas
the 'army of the poor'.
What they lack in equipment, they make up for in organization, determination and excellent knowledge of the area.
For example, they have a famous network of underground tunnels.
It's actually a whole second underground city under Gaza.
But tunnels are not everything.
Hamas fighters also have bunkers, shelters and passages between houses. They are useful when Israel uses the so-called knocking on the roof.
That is?
Israeli pilots first hit the roof of a building believed to be Hamas' headquarters with a small-caliber rocket.
There was a warning explosion, after which people realized that a real bomb was about to be dropped here.
And only then was the building destroyed by the Israeli air force.
That is why Hamas has prepared evacuation channels, hiding places and passages in the walls for such an eventuality.
This rebel technology is about to collide with IDF tanks, armored vehicles and bulldozers.
Hamas will probably initially succumb to this Israeli power and be dispersed.
And later?
The question is how long this occupation of Gaza will last, how brutal it will be and how effective it will be.
Such an occupation must meet a number of conditions to bring results.
What are these conditions?
The basic one is having a partner among the occupied community.
If you do not have a partner on the ground in the form of any government, police or Shiite militias - as was the case in Iraq - the occupation will fail.
Does Israel have partners in the Gaza Strip?
No. It won't come to terms with Islamic Jihad.
Hamas certainly has its critics among Palestinians. Every government has.
There are many ordinary Palestinians who are humanly angry at the situation they have found themselves in because of Hamas' 15-year rule. But these 'angry' ones are not organized and are unable to challenge Hamas.
And the other Palestinian faction, Fatah ruling in the West Bank, is completely corrupt, disgraced and has no respect in Gaza.
Besides, no one will want to be a collaborator.
What will we see during the land operation - if any? Israeli soldiers running from house to house, looking for Hamas members? Exchanging fire with Palestinian fighters in urban combat?
I do not believe in a complete occupation of the Gaza Strip. I think we will see rather limited, one-off actions, destruction of buildings, blockades, check-points. Spectacular military operations will probably take place: we will see the destruction of what Hamas has built in Gaza: command points, weapons warehouses and firing positions, blowing up tunnels and bunkers with modern weapons designed for this purpose.
But I think that on CNN and other networks we will mainly see a humanitarian catastrophe and the suffering of the Palestinians. Let me be brutal: we will forget about the Israelis murdered in the first days of October and focus on the victims among the Palestinians.
Does this military action have a chance of success?
It's going to be hard.
First of all, Israel has no allies there.
Secondly: if you kill one fighter, a jihadist, three new ones take his place: cousins, brothers, and even sisters or wives, as we saw, for example, in Chechnya.
It will be the same here.
This conflict is reproduced from generation to generation.
Palestinian youth, seeing what is happening, will quickly become radicalized.
And everything will start again.
It's hard to talk about victory in this case.
Should Israel be afraid that in a moment it will be fighting on several fronts at the same time?
Definitely yes.
This conflict has the potential to spill over: there could be a Hezbollah attack from Lebanon.
Or another
intifada (uprising) of angry Palestinians in the West Bank, who will not passively watch the tragedy of Gaza forever.
They are already becoming radicalized.
Even Iran may enter this game, which is of course unlikely, but the potential for escalation is high.
Judging by its brutal methods, Hamas has a lot in common with ISIS : murdering civilians, children, beheadings, murdering pregnant women?
However, these are different organizations.
Indeed, for a time in 2014-15, there were several Islamic State (ISIS) envoys in Gaza.
They tried to build such a branch there, a province called
a wilayat.
But they were quickly killed because Hamas hates competition on its territory.
ISIS was an apocalyptic, revolutionary organization, creating a new entity, a new state structure.
However, Hamas won the 2007 elections in the Gaza Strip.
It then literally threw activists of the rival Fatah out of the window.
And later it ruled dictatorially. It was a humanitarian organization that over time became radicalized and became a terrorist organization.
But with all this, it became the
de facto government of the Gaza Strip - it had police, courts and collected taxes.
How is it possible that Israel underestimated the strength of Hamas, given the eavesdropping and surveillance capabilities of the Israeli services?
Israel was convinced that Hamas was a mafia-like organization but that it was possible to live with it.
Israel had a problem with Hamas, but the Iron Dome worked and the Hamas rockets fired from time to time were knocked down.
The Jews built a wall around Gaza, they had surveillance, they relied on technology. There was a kind of ceasefire.
So Israel believed that nothing drastic would happen.
That's why Jews lived in border kibbutzim that looked like American suburbs:
nice houses, lawns.
They even organized youth concerts in this area.
Each house had the so-called
safe room, a kind of shelter in case something might happen, but life took its course.
Hamas took advantage of the crisis of the Israeli government, protests against violations of the rule of law and the fact that IDF soldiers were mainly occupied with protecting Israeli settlers in the West Bank.
The government was weak, based on religious fundamentalists and ultranationalists who had no knowledge of the military and believed that the main threat was the West Bank.
There was also a lack of
human intelligence , i.e. intelligence in the form of people, contacts, spies, and agents who would report what was happening in Hamas.
Cameras and detectors on the wall alone were not enough.
The method of collecting information, which involves personal contact between intelligence officers and personal sources, is irreplaceable.
Hamas has been preparing for this attack for a long time.
Who helped it financially?
Hamas is supported, like the Taliban in Afghanistan and ISIS, by the Muslim money transfer system.
This is the so-called humanitarian donations to charities or simply transferring money through trusted couriers.
What is this model about?
This or that private donor, a fabulously rich sheikh or emir, most often from the Persian Gulf countries, gives money supposedly for humanitarian aid for Gaza: for poor mothers with children.
But it's a cover.
The people of Gaza continue to live in poverty, and the money actually goes to Hamas for weapons and military actions.
In addition, Hamas collects taxes and tribute from the people of Gaza and operates in the cryptocurrency market: it is about subsidies in bitcoins.
Iran also helps Hamas generously.
Overall, it is a very rich organization.
How will Arab countries react to the conflict?
Arab states seem to have been tired of the Palestinian issue for at least a decade. Divisions among Palestinians, two governments in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority, corruption, refugees.
For some time, Arab states have been seeking to normalize relations with Israel. Hamas's activities did not suit them. For example, Saudi Arabia negotiated diplomatic agreements with Israel through American diplomacy.
Now, however, they must address the new situation created by the Hamas attack.
Former Saudi Arabian intelligence chief Prince Turki Al-Faisal has condemned Hamas attacks on civilians in Israel. But he equally condemned the indiscriminate bombing of innocent civilians in Gaza.
This shows that Arab countries will try to keep the so-called the Golden mean. The problem is that the Arab street has a completely different opinion, and sheikhs, emirs and royal families have to take them into account.
Americans supported Israel's announced attack on Gaza.
President Joe Biden hoped that Saudi Arabia's negotiations with Israel would be completed, which would be a great success for his foreign policy.
That didn't happen. Negotiations stalled due to the attack.
The United States is an indispensable ally of Israel, without which it is impossible to imagine managing the crisis in the Middle East.
Now the Americans have sent two aircraft carriers to this area, which is intended to discourage Iran from joining the war.
They must also think about those Hamas hostages who have American passports, as well as about their soldiers stationed in Syria and Iraq, who face an increased threat of attack by Shiite militias.
All in all, American diplomacy is the only one that Arab countries take into account. Only it still has control there.
Russia once again embarrassed itself with its statements - Putin compared the "siege of Gaza" to the siege of Leningrad during World War II .
China does not have much importance in this region, it is just building diplomatic and economic influence.
The European Union, for its part, is divided over Israel and Palestine and is, as always, providing humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza.
Once again, it turned out that America is indispensable to the situation in the Middle East when it comes to demonstrating military power. Which other power could afford to send two groups of aircraft carriers there quickly?
What role will the hostages kidnapped by Hamas, including children, play now?
This is a bargaining chip in negotiations.
Israel wants more than 220 of its citizens to return safely to the country.
There is a risk that they will be used as human shields. Hamas is slowly giving back these hostages: two people here, two there.
It buys time because it delays Israel's attack.
Hamas has the right to fear total destruction and is trying to protect itself in this way. These talks – conducted through Qatar – are only a way to postpone intervention.
This is a hopeless conflict with no alternative.
It simply happened that for political players from Hamas, military action became the first choice - instead of diplomacy or passive resistance.
Something we can all only despair about.
There is no wise person who would say that there is any diplomatic solution on the table right now.
The methods of resolving conflicts offered by the UN do not work.
Israel's action in Palestine will probably last several months.
What next: Israel withdraws? Will it occupy Gaza?
Will Gaza be put under the supervision of UN forces?
At the moment, the situation is hopeless and it is difficult to find a reasonable political solution.
After all, Israel will not annex these areas and absorb 2 million Palestinians, because it would be suicide - opening the borders to them.
Egypt doesn't want them.
So they will stay in Gaza, and Hamas, even militarily destroyed, will still remain an important socio-political force there.
There is no alternative to it.
Just as there is no alternative for Israel to defend itself by all means."
- Jeśli zabijasz jednego bojownika Hamasu, dżihadystę, to na jego miejsce przychodzi trzech nowych: kuzyni, bracia, a nawet siostry czy żony. Izraelowi bardzo ciężko będzie wyeliminować Hamas ze Strefy
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