Lisa Irwin Disappearance - Thoughts and Theories ONLY!

[marge_rita]

Abby, Initially I bought the cell phone robbery story. I've re thought and re read some articles today and those cell phones imo were hidden, not stolen.

There's some phone calls Lisa's mom just may not want LE or her dh to know about.
Speculation only....

imo

 

[neesaki]

I would like to know any theories on motive for murder by DB. The accidental death theory no longer feels valid to me.

One I can think of, she didn't want to settle down with Jeremy and she had other interests (other men probably), partying?. Therefore she may see her baby Lisa as an unwanted responsibility and burden that is keeping her from doing what she wanted to do. JMO

 

[Codger]

A possible scenario? Mere speculation here:

-Debbi and neighbor go to the store and Debbi buys wine, and other stuff. The wine is for the neighbor (I know men who like wine or anything cheap/voluminous that will get them buzzed - classy folks we are!)

-Jeremy leaves for work just before or after the trip to the store.

-Debbi visits with the female neighbor and children watch a video, neighbor leaves and Debbi puts the children to bed.

-Debbi goes to One Eyed Jakes or one of the bars very nearby (or to someone's home) and lets loose a little. She either leaves the children alone or the neighbor agrees to keep an eye on the house (in exchange for the wine).

-At 2:30 or so, the bar is closing or Debbi knows she needs to leave someone's house and return home. Somebody close to her who's out and about nearby texts her that he's ready to pick her up and take her home (as agreed-to in advance). She needs to be home and asleep when Jeremy returns from work. She doesn't drive that night because she intends to party; someone very close to her is her designated driver.

-Debbi is dropped at home and something has happened or does then happen to Lisa. She is deceased, or she is crying and an impaired Debbi loses it.

-Debbi calls the designated driver back to the house and they get rid of evidence and stage an abuction quickly - no time for a well thought out plan. Designated driver takes the evidence (which includes all the phones for good measure) while Debbi frets and possibly pushes in the screen to imply a point of entry.

-Jeremy arrives home earlier than expected. Debbi jumps into bed, where her youngest has planted himself and the kitten while she was out. She has no time to turn out the lights or lock the door. This is the scenario she's now stuck with and what Jeremy reports to 911 when he arrives home.

(No one that saw her that night reports it because they have issues with LE themselves, or somebody did report it and it's one of the itty bitty gaps in Debbi's time line).

I'm not sold on this as a theory, but putting some of the pieces together as a scenario possibly close to what could have happened. I'm sure there are thousands of possible scenarios that could be speculated based on what little information is available now (including a very lucky abductor taking Lisa when everyone was asleep). This is one that was rolling around in my head. JMO, MOO, JMHO...

Best put together theory from this POV I've seen.
There are several decent theories in this thread. I enjoy reading all the different perspectives, makes me think what pieces jive + which possibilities cover all of them. Now if LE would hand over the evidence list, WS would have this wrapped up + Lisa found by sunrise. MOO of course.

 

[marge_rita]

I have so much respect for Mark Lunsford. How that man didn't end up killing his neighbor.... I can't imagine how horrible his nightmares had to be, and probably still are, imagining his daughter in that devil's trailer...and the horrors of what went on. Same with Marc Klaas, Samantha Runion's mom...and the list goes on and on, and it shouldn't.

Yeah, Mark K. and Samatha's mother have my highest respect. They acted like parents whose child was missing should act imo.

When I rewatched some of the videos today, I came to the unprofessional conclusion that Lisa's dad could be in shock.

imo

 

[Abby Normal]

Abby, Initially I bought the cell phone robbery story. I've re thought and re read some articles today and those cell phones imo were hidden, not stolen.

There's some phone calls Lisa's mom just may not want LE or her dh to know about.
Speculation only....

imo

It's one of my biggest hangups for the intruder theory.

The lack of finding the baby close by, with dogs, when there are alleged sightings of the baby so close to when she went missing is one of my biggest hangups for the parental theory. I imagine it must be pretty hard to convince someone to become your accomplice to murder.

My impressions only.

 

[marge_rita]

One I can think of, she didn't want to settle down with Jeremy and she had other interests (another man probably), partying?. Therefore she may see her baby Lisa as an unwanted responsibility and burden that is keeping her from doing what she wanted to do. JMO

Good thinking! Because of Lisa's age, I took for granted that D an J had a good relationship. Call me silly.:waitasec:
It makes perfect sense that my presception was wrong. D may very well be interested in someone else.

Good theory neesaki.

imo

 

[marge_rita]

It's one of my biggest hangups for the intruder theory.

The lack of finding the baby close by, with dogs, when there are alleged sightings of the baby so close to when she went missing is one of my biggest hangups for the parental theory. I imagine it must be pretty hard to convince someone to become your accomplice to murder.

My impressions only.

I agree,
An intruder seems less likely.

 

[vlpate]

lvpate,
IIRC the cell phone co. has a record of all text messages.

Right, I was just reading about Sprint and ATT - seems they only keep the details - number from or to, date, time. Some keep the complete messages for 72 hours and up. With a court order , they will keep them longer.

 

[marge_rita]

vlpate,
Thanks for this information. Good to know.

Still, date, time and number to, would be interesting imo.

imo

 

[jjenny]

vlpate,
Thanks for this information. Good to know.

Still, date, time and number to, would be interesting imo.

imo

Not just interesting. Crucial to the case. The mother's story is that she went to sleep and didn't hear anything. Therefore these cell phones shouldn't be in use at night on the night of abduction.

 

[cluciano63]

Yes if there were calls or texts between one of the missing phones and someone close the to the family, that would be incriminating for the parents. I think the phones will be a big deal in this case, one way or another.

(I just hope there is a solution this time...little babies disappearing, Baby Kate, Joshua, are two other tiny ones yet to be found...)

 

[HatesSociopaths]

Ok so I've been researching the Andrea Yates case a bit, still in progress.

This video is a bit hard to watch, but I am putting it here for reference. In it, it goes over how Andrea Yates calls her husband and tells him to come home, and he finds all of the kids dead. When she was asked why she did it, she said that she was a bad mom and was saving them from hell.

She was diagnosed with post-partum psychosis.

Here is the video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=nqn4cidxoww

What makes cases like these so complex and mysterious IMO is that the action appears to be inconsistent with other observed behaviors. In other words, I think we have all probably seen evidence that Debbie loved her children. Intentionally murdering Lisa is not consistent with that.

I don't know much about post-partum psychosis at all, but after seeing the Andrea video and hearing her motive, it struck me that she was possibly posessed, or in other terms, suffering from schizophrenia.

I then remembered the wine. It made me raise the question if the wine could have perhaps precipitated an episode of scizophrenia in Debbie and caused her state of mind to be so violently changed.

Here is what I found on that topic:

Schizophrenia, Alcohol Abuse, and Violent Behavior: A 26-Year Followup Study of an Unselected Birth Cohort
Pirkko Räsänen, M.D., Ph.D., Jari Tähonen, M.D., Ph.D., Matti Isohanni, M.D., Ph.D., Paula Rantakallio, M.D., Ph.D., Jari Lehtonen, M.D. and Juha Moring
+ Author Affiliations

Associate Professor, Department of Forensic Psychiatry, University of Kuopio, Niuvanniemi Hospital Kuopio, Finland
Professor and Chairman, Department of Forensic Psychiatry, University of Kuopio, Niuvanniemi Hospital Kuopio, Finland
Professor and Chairman, Department of Psychiatry, University of Oulu Finland
Psychiatrist, Department of Psychiatry, University of Oulu Finland
Medical Director, Department of Psychiatry, University of Oulu Finland
Emeritus Professor, Department of Public Health Science and General Practice, University of Oulu Finland
Reprint requests should be sent to Dr. J. Tühonen, Dept. of Forensic Psychiatry, University of Kuopio, Niuvanniemi Hospital, FIN-70240 Kuopio, Finland
Abstract

It has been suggested that schizophrenia and alcoholism are associated with violent behavior. But so far there are no published studies from unselected cohorts quantifying the actual risk associated with schizophrenia both with and without comorbid alcoholism. In this study, an unselected birth cohort (n=11,017) was prospectively followed to the age of 26, and data on psychiatric disorders and crimes were collected from national registers. The odds ratios for violent offenses and recidivism were calculated for each diagnostic group. Men who abused alcohol and were diagnosed with schizophrenia were 25.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) 6.1–97.5) times more likely to commit violent crimes than mentally healthy men. The risk for nonalcoholic patients with schizophrenia was 3.6 (95% CI 0.9–12.3) and for other psychoses, 7.7 (95% CI 2.2–23.9). None of the patients with schizophrenia who did not abuse alcohol were recidivists (>2 offenses), but the risk for committing more crimes among alcoholic subjects with schizophrenia was 9.5-fold (95% CI 2.7–30.0). This study suggests that to prevent the crimes being committed by people with schizophrenia, it is important that clinicians watch for comorbid alcohol abuse.

http://schizophreniabulletin.oxfordjournals.org/content/24/3/437.abstract

It would be interesting to me if there is any evidence in Debbie's past of schizophrenic behavior.

MOO! :twocents: :seeya:

 

[captivagrl]

I'm going to pose this question in the question/ answer thread too, but so many more seam to check out this thread.

If you are the main caregiver of a baby that is caring for a baby that is 10/11 months old, would you expect to put a child down for the night @7:30 and expect that child to sleep through the night? If you looked in on the baby @10:30 and everything looked okay, how long would you expect that baby to sleep? I'm asking the question without factoring in the possibility of the baby having a mild cold/cough.
In the timeline given no one that I know, or in my own experience, would expect a baby at this age to sleep that many hours.
This Mom has stated that Dad woke her at 4:00am.
To be clear, my point is that's a long time to assume that a 10 month old baby with a cough/cold (in the same diaper) would stay sleeping without a sound.

 

[HatesSociopaths]

60 Minutes video on Andrea Yates, discusses her postpartum psychosis.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3xN__s2-KQ"]12/09/01: Why Did She Do It? - YouTube[/ame]

 

[*JMO*]

In one of the early interviews the father stated that he checked on the boys first and then Lisa. He never mentioned that one boy was sleeping with DB. Then he stated that he said to DB "What do you mean she isn't in her crib?". This really sounds conflicting if he is the one that supposedly discovered the baby was gone..why would he be asking that of DB? That would indicate she had previously told him Lisa was gone.These inconsistencies make me feel that Jeremy is fully aware that something happened and is involved in at least the stories given to police. He may not know fully what happened but I think he is assisting with the cover.

 

[captivagrl]

In one of the early interviews the father stated that he checked on the boys first and then Lisa. He never mentioned that one boy was sleeping with DB. Then he stated that he said to DB "What do you mean she isn't in her crib?". This really sounds conflicting if he is the one that supposedly discovered the baby was gone..why would he be asking that of DB? That would indicate she had previously told him Lisa was gone.These inconsistencies make me feel that Jeremy is fully aware that something happened and is involved in at least the stories given to police. He may not know fully what happened but I think he is assisting with the cover.

I'm not ready to convict anyone of anything but common sense tells me that their accounts of that evening are not truthful (period) And Lisa's parents do not appear to be looking for Lisa. Exclusive media deals? Staying out of the public eye? Not cooperating with LE last week? I don't get it. Where are Lisa's parents? Where is this child, what happened?

 

[SmoothOperator]

Re: the three missing cell phones and motives behind why they all three were taken
From the home..

I see that several believe the cell phones being removed as something of importance to the case in that the reasoning behind their having to be removed was due to their having incriminating evidence on any of all(some believing while all 3 were removed was strictly to appear more believable).. But bottom line is that they held incriminating evidence that they never wanted seen or known to anyone, especially LE..

The problem with this theory is that it is indeed an epic fail if the motive is to keep specific info that was on the phone(call, text, dates and times, etc) from ever being known or found out about.. Due to all of that detail info and data from those cells phones is available thru the phone service provider. All of the details listed and then much more would be available in all it's damning detail(if that indeed were the motive).. With each and every call, incoming/outgoing, along with specific detail of each call with time amd date stamp, along with the duration of each and every call.. As well as the same details for every single text sent/received, date and time stamped, as well as every single word of every single text that was sent or received.. That is absolutely available to each and everyone of us from our own cell service provider, even thousands of pages printed in black and white with every word of every text printed out as well..

The phone is not necessary to obtain any/all of this extreme detailed activity of each and every cell phone.. I know this for 100% certain from first hand, personal experience..

So in knowing that any incriminating evidence can be easily obtained WITHOUT HAVING THE CELL PHONE it IMO does not make sense as a motive for having the cell phones removed..

HTH

 

[indepmo]

This case has my head spinning right now.

First off, there are so many unanswered questions that only LE is entitled to have, so the speculation is running in full swing and I've seen theories from tainted formula, to an accident/cover-up posted.

Getting back to the time frame here, I know that the police first dispatched an officer at 4:04am to the residence.
I've been a police scanner entheusiest for a great deal of my life, and probably owned my first radio at the age or 8.

I know from monitoring daily that even though a call might come in at let's say 3:35am, it might not be dispatched for a great deal of time. Kansas City Missouri Police are known for being "blacked out" due to the high call volume. I also know from monitoring that some calls take higher priority than others and are dispatched right away. I'm not sure what category Kansas City MO PD put this in.

<modsnip>

One of the first things I am disturbed with is the fact that it has been reported that someone went into the childs bedroom window and kidnapped her. They didn't go into the bathroom window, they didn't go through the bathroom window, they went directly into this childs window.

The layouts of these houses are pretty simple. It's generally easy for me to look at a one story house and be able to identify where bedrooms are located, where the bathroom is on the main level, living room kitchen etc. I could be wrong on my theory of the layout. Not only was it reported that someone went into this childs window, but they also went down a hallway and into a kitchen to take cell phones. To go in a bedroom window and take such a risk, then to go to another room of the house to steal cell phones???

The kitchen might even be inbetween the from bedroom and living room, not sure... I thought the double window on the front of the house might not be a bedroom. Maybe someone else here could speculate on that.

So you make such a bold move and enter a room, then you steal something that could "track you"? So my theories have ben running wild on that one too.
a) Stupid and bold, could track where you take an infant you kidnap
b) Covering up evidence, hiding texts, calls, etc.
c) Kidnapped taking phones so homeowner cannot call LE. (unknown if a residential phone existed in the home???) Once again, only something LE knows.

The evening prior and the grocery store:
Many unanswered questions. What time did Jeremy Irwin go to work? At almost 5pm were the kids home with him? Were they with family members? Neighbors? Left unattended at home? Left unattended in a vehicle outside of the store? In a vehicle outside of the store with another individual(s)?

Unusual night...
Jeremy working first night shift then this takes place. Red flag? Perfect opportunity for a kidnapper? For someone inside of the home being alone late at night where the neighbors will most likely be asleep? Unknown.
Something I don't know if it has been discussed, could Jeremy have came home, fabricated the screen and done something, then came home and woke Deborah up? Unknown.

Avoiding the media...
I was very close to the Sam and Lindsey Porter situation and am still friends with their mother Tina to this day. The media did get stressfull at times, but there came a time when the spotlight was just no longer there and any chance to get the kids pictures, a news story or anything out there was always a blessing in hopes of finding the children. Why would these parents be avoiding the media? Red flag?

National media...
"A deal with the media"... What was that comment all about? Red flag?

A family spokes person...
This person has not been returning calls to local media... Vital to keep this city informed. Red flag?

Private investigator...
One day a private investigator, the next day a "consultant" due to questions and concerns by the media. No license in Missouri so acting as a consultant. Red flag?
'Wealthy Benefactor' Brought Wild Bill To Lisa Irwin Case. "Wild Bill" last known working for Good Morning America as a security consultant.
Can anyone else picture this?
GMA (since they are the "exclusive" media putting them on camera now) suggesting to the family, "Hey. How about we hire a private detective to help you guys out?" It's all the more red flags to me. I'm pretty confident that Good Morning America is the "Wealthy Benefactor"

Kansas City Police not requesting assistance...
There are certified and trained groups here in the metro that can assist law enforcement with searches. The family can even request search teams to help look for this child. I was a member of a local group that went through this extensive training where detectives came in for classes, and we took part in getting certified. There are a lot of wooded areas near the Irwin home, and most frightening, the Missouri river is just south of the home and very accessible from a vehicle or a very short walk.
I made a few maps of areas that I would find of interest that can be easily accessed by a vehicle or on foot near the home. Red lines indicating areas I feel should be searched, blue lines where you could travel by vehicle and short distances on foot.

(edit)
I did notice on the news this morning that the 34th & Brighton area has been looked at by law enforcement.(/edit)

Maybe someone else local can comment on the areas I've pointed out. I'm not sure along the river business wise what's there. I know the old Sam's Town Casino closed many years ago, but I don't know if that structure is still being used or if security guards travel that area?

Frustrating...
My theory here? Too many red flags and no signs of this child. The red flags have me really concerned and worried about the conclusion of this case.
:banghead:

 

[mmmagique]

The other day I saw a baby in a carry seat at the doctor's office, but the entire baby was covered by a blanket. It drove me crazy because you never know; it could've been Baby Lisa under that blanket. I went for good manners that time because I couldn't figure out how to take a peek under the blanket.

SBM (although your other points were great!)

Someone I know on another board has a daughter who lives in KC and has a baby about the size and look of Lisa. She said people hound her daughter when ever she takes that baby out now.

My only advice was if she needs to take her out, have her wear a dress so they can see there is no beauty mark on her outer thigh, and to try not to take her out until this case is resolved. (hopefully SOON!)

 

[indepmo]

Re: the three missing cell phones and motives behind why they all three were taken
From the home..

So in knowing that any incriminating evidence can be easily obtained WITHOUT HAVING THE CELL PHONE it IMO does not make sense as a motive for having the cell phones removed..

HTH

Smooth,

Some people probably don't know about technology or how to cover something up. I remember watching a show a while back for a guy who murdered his ex in Kansas. On his computer, he was searching for things like "How to cover up a murder" etc.

Little did he know the FBI technology lab would recover his searches as well as him searching for how to avoid going through the toll booth between towns so he wouldnt be detected on camera.

I even recall an episode of the First 48 where they didn't have a phone, but they were able to obtain the text messages that were exchanged. I noticed on here somewhere last night a person stated AT&T didn't have a way to go back and look at text messages. Trust me. I'm sure everything is stored somewhere for a period of time, just not accessible by the general public. I would then wonder in trial disputing privacy issues etc. but I'm not sure what all is covered by that when it comes to texting. I can't recall for certain if the text messages were complete, or if it just showed the two numbers exchanging the texts with the date and time stamps...

In this case, maybe someone was too stupid thinking by taking the cell phones that there was no other way to trace anything. You just never know...