There seem to be some conflicting reports, many questions without answers, and much speculation here. However, Chief Conley said we have to go with what we know. What we know is that Abbie told her son she "might" go for a walk in the neighborhood after she spoke with him. Here are just some thoughts to ponder regarding this horribly sad situation.
If Abbie did go for a walk I would think she would want to return to the house by the time it got dark because friends were arriving for the Super Bowl get-together at 6:00 p.m. She said she might take a "walk" not a "hike" before her guests arrived. Not a hike where she would have time to explore and take her time taking photographs. And, she left her camera at home, as well as her cell phone. Therefore, how long a walk would she realistically have taken?
Sunset on that day was 5:00 p.m., pitch dark by 5:30 p.m. if not before. For example, if she took a walk for a half hour in one direction it would take her a half hour to get back if she didn't dally along the way, longer if she did. And, there's the possibility that she was not capable of returning. The window from 3:00-6:00 p.m. was a small one, so how far could she have gone in either direction around her neighborhood? For example, how long would it take someone to walk from her house to the breakwater at the end of Eastern Point, or to the grounds of the Eastern Point Retreat House, or in the other direction to the ocean or wooded areas, and back again?
As soon as her friends reported her missing around 7:00 p.m. an immediate response and search began. Chief Conley said they searched the entire area very thoroughly with helicopters, thermal imaging, aircraft flew patterns over the water, K9s, boats as close to shore as they could go, police on foot searched and questioned neighbors, checked their home cameras, searched their premises and any out buildings, neighbors searched, etc., and this went on for at least a night and several days, and to a lesser degree is still going on now with detectives in ways we probably are unaware of. An unprecedented and thorough search. Except, that at the time, it was very difficult to get boats close to shore. This is what worries me.
Again, for example, much of the 30 acres of land around the Eastern Point Retreat House is quite desolate and dense, and along the shore there are areas where the rocks are quite elevated from the ocean. Rocks that one could actually fall from, as opposed to wading into a pond or wading into the ocean from a beach. One could trip, hit one's head and fall in the ocean. Or, one might have a medical event and pass out, and fall in. Or, I suppose be pushed, but as Chief Conley said the chance of foul play is very, very low and is not suspected. In any case, no matter how familiar you are with the sea, how aware you are of the elements and dangers of nature and of your surroundings, sometimes things can go horribly wrong in an instant no matter how careful you are.
Chief Conley said the seas were 3-5 feet at the time, and therefore it was difficult to get boats close to shore. If the seas were 3-5 feet that would mean the winds were 15-20 kts. High tide was at 5:23 p.m. Sunset at 5:00 p.m., and total darkness by 5:30 p.m. For all these reasons it was understandably difficult for boats to get close to the shore to search. And, by the time the search got underway, especially the water search, it was past 7:00 p.m. Also, with winds 15-20 its it might be difficult for someone to hear a cry for help. Water temperature was 39 degrees which would mean a person could only survive 15-30 minutes in the water. Thermal imaging works well in the dark and on land, but does it work in or through water?
I happened to be driving through Gloucester on my way to Rockport that afternoon at about the same time Abbie went missing. I was struck by how quiet the town seemed. Very few cars and very few people out and about. I attributed it to the fact that everyone had finished their shopping during the day, and were at home cooking and watching the pre-game show before the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, not many people around to see or hear someone in distress.
Again, just some thoughts to ponder.
