I believe that this murder is related to Karina Vetrano's murder in NY. Way too many coincidences. They both jogged, it happened roughly at the same time of day, they both looked a like and were more than just pretty...these girls were specifically targeted.
It also looks like the perp (we all know its a he) is escalating quickly. He seems to be conflicted and either thought he would be caught soon, and quickly moved onto the next crime but is unsure of what the police know so he is trying to cover up the second time around.
He also probably had a lot more time to think at the second location.
These girls were both fit and runners. I believe that he used a more simplistic approach to get them close and calm. I am thinking he either knew them directly/indirectly through friends or watched them closely on social media...
Lets assume he knew that she would be there running at some point either from facebook or someone she used to know. What if she ran by him and he simply says "Hey, aren't you that girl from twitter" or "Hey Vanessa, don't I know you from the gym in NYC?"
Even if she doesn't know him, she's going to slow down/stop and approach him until she remembers.
I think we are looking for a white male (possibly Italian), who is big/strong and can easily over power fit women with punches, who is either someone she recognized from back in NYC or someone decent looking/trustworthy enough to stop jogging for (Ted Bundy), aged 27-45 and will have some connection to these two either directly through friends, the gym or indirectly through social media. Regarding the inconsistencies of the first and second murder, I think that he is relatively new at killing but due to the violent nature of knocking someones teeth out and then burning the second body, I think we are looking for someone with an extensive violent past via either first fights, domestic violence, assault, rape, etc.
This case is very sad and I feel awful for everyone except the guy who did this. This also reminds me a lot of the Chelsea King murder which also was a jogger that happened in my home town where I grew up. Chelsea's killer also target girls that reminded him of his first love who left him.