MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #5

[ThinkHard]

A crime of opportunity doesn't mean he was sitting on that spot waiting for a victim to happen by. By crime of opportunity, I mean that the perp would strike whenever he had the opportunity - whether it was then and there or elsewhere at a different time.

The opportunity wasn't particular to that place or that time or that day, but rather that there was a perp with a desire to attack and he did when he could. If VM wasn't there, he wouldn't have attacked anyone at that time - he would just keep doing whatever he was doing that day. If he encountered another opportunity elsewhere, maybe he would've attacked a different woman.

Maybe he was driving around looking for a victim, but I'm thinking he was just going through his regular day and when his sick mind saw Vanessa, he saw an opportunity.

He could be local or not, IDK. Probably at least someone who knew enough of the area to be able to locate a secluded spot like the cart road offered.

jmOPINION

I understand what crime of opportunity means just fine thanks. I never insinuated it was only a lay in wait situation, perhaps you are confusing me with someone else and there theory because I never even suggested that was all it meant.

I still stand by what I said, I see such a possibility being statistically on the more unlikely end.

We haven't had crimes like this around her at all. I understand there is a first for everything, but I just think this wouldn't be the first type of crime of this nature if we had a local that trolled for lone girls.

The truth is these 5 town that are part of the Princeton community are all rural back roads, all heavily wooded. There are always lone runners both male and female on these roads and in more removed areas even then BSR. The HS has an amazing track program as in over 100 females and 100 males on the track team, plus CC and indoor...so we have a lot of road runners....

I just can't grasp why a trolling perp wouldn't have struck before with so many opportunities AND the chances that when he does attack it is a visitor over a local is statistically slim too.

So again of course it's not impossible ... I don't think random crime of opportunity is really what fits in this case. I think VM was the target, not just an opportunity. JMO

 

[Coleraine]

A crime of opportunity doesn't mean he was sitting on that spot waiting for a victim to happen by. By crime of opportunity, I mean that the perp would strike whenever he had the opportunity - whether it was then and there or elsewhere at a different time.

The opportunity wasn't particular to that place or that time or that day, but rather that there was a perp with a desire to attack and he did when he could. If VM wasn't there, he wouldn't have attacked anyone at that time - he would just keep doing whatever he was doing that day. If he encountered another opportunity elsewhere, maybe he would've attacked a different woman.

Maybe he was driving around looking for a victim, but I'm thinking he was just going through his regular day and when his sick mind saw Vanessa, he saw an opportunity.

He could be local or not, IDK. Probably at least someone who knew enough of the area to be able to locate a secluded spot like the cart road offered.

jmOPINION

IMO, this theory makes the most sense after reading so many ideas about what could have happened to Vanessa. It seems some crimes happen within a perfect storm of criminal motivation and a victim who just happens to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. This sad case feels the same to me. Great post.

 

[Sheila Terranova]

Joshua M: good point but mymother covered homicides. You have an interest in solving murders so you are "street smart". But many people are not....it's the last thing on their mind. Even in the situation you describe. Personally, I warn my children about certain things (my father was a detective) and they think I'm very very morbid .

 

[Sheila Terranova]

Remember Ted Bundy frequently wore a cast and would ask for help?

 

[Sheila Terranova]

IMO Coleraine, , exactly! I agree. A detective once told me murderers are hunters . When they find a girl culled from the herd it presents the perfect opportunity to strike( most unfortunately.)

 

[liz b.]

I don't see someone being inspired by the KV murder, as the KV murder wasn't made into a big story up here until after VM's murder....there were also only a few days btw the crimes if they planned it...and if they didn't then they got really lucky having supplies on hand.

Also NO statistically VM did not have as high of a chance as anyone else. There are far more locals in town so happening on a local is far more likely, happening on a visitor far less likely....that's basic stats....if you have a bowl with all green balls and one blue ball and you close your eyes your chances of grabbing a blue ball are much higher then grabbing the green one. So no she in fact did not have as likely a chance of being the victim of opportunity as a local would have.

I just feel for a crime of opportunity there are a lot of slim statistical chances coming into play all at once...again not impossible but statistically less likely.

Lastly i would say more violence is more personal not less.

RBBM : Yes, I agree.

 

[liz b.]

Remember Ted Bundy frequently wore a cast and would ask for help?

Yes, he abducted and later killed a young woman from our university ( in Seattle) using the cast ruse. Interestingly, Ted Bundy mostly sought a certain type, brunette, with longish hair, parted a certain way. Women who looked like a girlfriend who supposedly dumped him.

 

[ThinkHard]

Joshua M: good point but mymother covered homicides. You have an interest in solving murders so you are "street smart". But many people are not....it's the last thing on their mind. Even in the situation you describe. Personally, I warn my children about certain things (my father was a detective) and they think I'm very very morbid .

Are you referring to crossing the road when you see a car up ahead regarding street smarts?

The thing with that is one thing that will get you street smarts real quick is living in NYC or any large city like that....you learn quick even if you did grow up in a small town. I say that as someone who grew up next to Princeton and ended up in NYC for grad school and after, you learn quick.

VM had been living in NYC for over a year and before that Boston....so my guess is seeing something suspicious would have triggered her to cross the road ... because I feel like it's more likely she would be someone with street smarts not someone without them. JMO

 

[Rocky1]

I agree that the condition would not prevent romance for the rest of her life.

Are you familiar with Crohn's? I am. It makes intimacy a challenge. Since she was rather recently diagnosed, I can totally understand if she put her romantic life on hold for awhile.

But, perhaps, I'm wrong.

jmopinion

That could very well be.
It could also be that, as her father said, she was all about her career, so maybe she just wanted to focus on her career at the time, and a relationship wasn't all that important.
Or it could be both.
As far as the "married man" theory goes, I think if that was the case, there are too many circumstances in which she would have left at least one clue, ie, been seen by someone, or left a data trail, or told one of her friends about it.
If she used a "burner phone," unless she had that with her at the time, and was carrying two phones,(which I doubt) someone would have found that by now.
If she had a secret email account,(which I doubt) the chances of having a separate device like a laptop, or Ipad, or a third phone for that is nill, and that would have been discovered by now and tracked.
LE has a lot more to go on than I do, (or maybe not) but I am not convinced that a "Dark SUV" was involved at all. I still think they may still be trying to catch flies. I hope I am wrong. I know a witness said there was a car that was seen turning around, and when that witness doubled back, VM was gone. That couldn't have been the SUV that was supposed to be parked along BSR, because no vehicle was seen by that witness.

 

[Rocky1]

I agree.

If it was a lay-in-wait crime, I think the perp was waiting for her.

I'm just not convinced that was lay-in-wait. I still hold onto the idea that it was a rapist who took the opportunity when he happened to see her.

I do see how it could be a local, but I also can see someone who happened to be there when she was. Perhaps he saw her as he drove by, scoped out a place to grab her, circled around until he could grab her near the cart road...and then pounced.

I'm totally on the fence with theories, but I don't think it was an ongoing love interest.

jmOPINION.

I am with you.
Someone that knew of her, or met her before, but not an ex b/f, not someone that she had a falling out with ten years ago at Bancroft, or not someone that followed her from NYC.
More so, someone that knew the cart path, lives near by, maybe a young serial killer/ sexual sadist in the making who's DNA isn't in the system yet, but now feels he got away with this, and will strike again.
I know I am repeating myself, and have no basis to say this, but I still think this guy was on a bike, had rode his bike on that road before, and saw her jogging, rode past her when she first left her moms that day, pedaled ahead of her, hid his bike in the woods, waited for her in that gully to the south of the path behind the guard rail, and ambushed her. I think that he stunned her, or struck her unconscious (no screams)and dragged her back into the path, killer her, and rode away. People may have seen him riding his bike on BSR, but never thought twice about it.
Not sure why, but I think those that called the tip line stating they saw a dark colored SUV mistook that for an unmarked state police cruiser that was parked there shortly after, while looking for her.

 

[Inthedetails]

I am with you.
Someone that knew of her, or met her before, but not an ex b/f, not someone that she had a falling out with ten years ago at Bancroft, or not someone that followed her from NYC.
More so, someone that knew the cart path, lives near by, maybe a young serial killer/ sexual sadist in the making who's DNA isn't in the system yet, but now feels he got away with this, and will strike again.
I know I am repeating myself, and have no basis to say this, but I still think this guy was on a bike, had rode his bike on that road before, and saw her jogging, rode past her when she first left her moms that day, pedaled ahead of her, hid his bike in the woods, waited for her in that gully to the south of the path behind the guard rail, and ambushed her. I think that he stunned her, or struck her unconscious (no screams)and dragged her back into the path, killer her, and rode away. People may have seen him riding his bike on BSR, but never thought twice about it.
Not sure why, but I think those that called the tip line stating they saw a dark colored SUV mistook that for an unmarked state police cruiser that was parked there shortly after, while looking for her.

I hear you. I have the feeling that Katrina in Queens was also attacked by someone(s) on bike. I do NOT think the two crimes were connected but a bike makes sense to me in Katrina's case, and I can understand how a bike would work in Vanessa's case too.

I am leaning toward someone in a car in Vanessa's case, but will keep a bike in mind too. A person on foot perhaps should also be considered. If on foot or on bike, that does mean local. A car indicates a fast getaway and immediate privacy in hiding any injuries from local scrutiny.
Sigh...so little to go on.

Sure would love this case to be solved....soon....

 

[Kickoff61]

I am with you.
Someone that knew of her, or met her before, but not an ex b/f, not someone that she had a falling out with ten years ago at Bancroft, or not someone that followed her from NYC.
More so, someone that knew the cart path, lives near by, maybe a young serial killer/ sexual sadist in the making who's DNA isn't in the system yet, but now feels he got away with this, and will strike again.
I know I am repeating myself, and have no basis to say this, but I still think this guy was on a bike, had rode his bike on that road before, and saw her jogging, rode past her when she first left her moms that day, pedaled ahead of her, hid his bike in the woods, waited for her in that gully to the south of the path behind the guard rail, and ambushed her. I think that he stunned her, or struck her unconscious (no screams)and dragged her back into the path, killer her, and rode away. People may have seen him riding his bike on BSR, but never thought twice about it.
Not sure why, but I think those that called the tip line stating they saw a dark colored SUV mistook that for an unmarked state police cruiser that was parked there shortly after, while looking for her.

It seems from what you are describing, the person not only knew this path (which would make sense as I believe they reported the person was familiar with area) and later reported the person familiar with the Geographical area. So, twice. But also it seems the person knew that path well enough to know, not many people would be walking on it to come across this in broad daylight on a Sunday afternoon. You also mentioned the married scenario. IF it is someone married, that doesn't have to mean she had any kind of romantic relationship with the person. It would then just mean the person who did this had a married life.

However, there are so many scenarios without facts known. The person could have been familiar with her running in the area , just by seeing her on her regular runs, but not know her. Or the person could know her through association, seeing her, a few words spoken in the area. Or the person could know her better in one of the many activities she is involved with, but not necessarily a relationship, but acquaintance. Or if the person is from out of town, may or may not know her at all, but visits the area enough, to have noticed her and picked up on her running routine. This is all speculation and the speculation could go on forever without facts known. I do think a 'relationship' type scenario on the secret side of things (with her secretly meeting that day) would leave a trail of some kind or someone knowing something about it, etc. That seems the last on the list of speculation. So far this is an unsolved case and hopefully they will make headway soon.

 

[Kickoff61]

In addition, there are many scenarios with the scene. I am not sure why people are certain she was grabbed at the beginning of the running route? There is a 2 hour time frame. She could have been approached later on in the route with something happening and then she was brought there. Or she could have been attacked on the way back in that area. Or then again, people may be right and she was attacked at the beginning of the route. Again, these answers are in the time of death, cause of death, much other evidence and details not released. There are so little facts to go on, it is impossible without the facts and evidence, to narrow down a particular scenario.

 

[Kickoff61]

I think a vehicle involved in all or part of this could be true, a bike could be true and on foot for part or all of it could be true. As I am repeating myself, there are many scenarios and those that cannot be ruled out without the facts.

 

[Inthedetails]

In addition, there are many scenarios with the scene. I am not sure why people are certain she was grabbed at the beginning of the running route? There is a 2 hour time frame. She could have been approached later on in the route with something happening and then she was brought there. Or she could have been attacked on the way back in that area. Or then again, people may be right and she was attacked at the beginning of the route. Again, these answers are in the time of death, cause of death, much other evidence and details not released. There are so little facts to go on, it is impossible without the facts and evidence, to narrow down a particular scenario.

I think she was attacked toward the beginning simply because she was reported missing so soon after she was due home. People were looking for her quickly.

But, that's only a guess.

jmo

 

[Kickoff61]

I think she was attacked toward the beginning simply because she was reported missing so soon after she was due home. People were looking for her quickly.

But, that's only a guess.

jmo

Yes, that's true, but the law enforcement reported 1 to 3PM time frame for anyone seeing anything. That leaves up to 2 hours of her out for a run in the neighborhood. I think they began looking for her around 3, as well. Would that be correct?

 

[Kickoff61]

Also, there are no reports yet of witnesses describing a person. Therefore, all ages are open for possibility in doing this also. Although, I tend to think a younger person would have been easier to detect by now. JMO. **Overall, at this point without further facts, *any age is possible.

 

[Kickoff61]

Also, FBI assistance is not ordinarily called into a state level homicide.

 

[Kickoff61]

There must be someone this person knows who suspects something, has a gut feeling something is wrong, seen something suspicious, etc.

 

[Rocky1]

I hear you. I have the feeling that Katrina in Queens was also attacked by someone(s) on bike. I do NOT think the two crimes were connected but a bike makes sense to me in Katrina's case, and I can understand how a bike would work in Vanessa's case too.

I am leaning toward someone in a car in Vanessa's case, but will keep a bike in mind too. A person on foot perhaps should also be considered. If on foot or on bike, that does mean local. A car indicates a fast getaway and immediate privacy in hiding any injuries from local scrutiny.
Sigh...so little to go on.

Sure would love this case to be solved....soon....

I think a bike was involved in the KV murder too.
I think the perp lives towards the end of 84th st,in sight of her house, could see KV warming up to jog alone that day, jumped on his bike and pedaled down 84th st to the entrance of the bike path that runs along the Belt Parkway. Then he entered the park through the rear entrance, and headed her off, killed her, pedaled back home and avoided the cameras that way.
He had to know somehow that she was jogging alone that day, and that may be how, unless it was a random crime, which I doubt.