MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #5

[Kickoff61]

I believe this person is reading every post & taking notes so he knows how people are thinking. And he is on his best behavior & won't risk getting caught by raising any red flags among friends/family.

You have a good point. I still think someone close to him would have suspicions of some sort.

 

[Inthedetails]

I believe this person is reading every post & taking notes so he knows how people are thinking. And he is on his best behavior & won't risk getting caught by raising any red flags among friends/family.

I don't think the perp will learn anything from us in particular. We're not thinking anything unique that others aren't thinking as well. jmopinion.

 

[Mountain man]

I was back in Princeton for Thanksgiving. The Wachusett House is a HUD facility for 50+ independent living. LE has done some interviews there so they are fully aware of that potential connection. I drove by the crime scene at least a dozen times while there. Even knowing where the cart path is and with the foliage down I missed it a few times. It is not an obvious "road" or path at all. I am convinced it is someone who knows the area well. The path appears to be a future driveway for that lot at some point in the future. It looks like a bunch of fill had been brought in and then the path just sort of ends. I guess my point is that even looking for it you can easily miss it.

 

[The Farm]

I believe this person is reading every post & taking notes so he knows how people are thinking. And he is on his best behavior & won't risk getting caught by raising any red flags among friends/family.

That is if he even knows about Websleuths!! It doesn't matter so much how we are thinking but how LE is thinking.
He also could be a loner and not close with anyone. Some go days without seeing other people.
And I was thinking also do we really know just how scratched up this person might have been? It could have been very minor and he might not have looked like a bobcat got ahold of his face at all.
A few small scratches? Hide out for a little while and boom good as new.

 

[Kickoff61]

I was back in Princeton for Thanksgiving. The Wachusett House is a HUD facility for 50+ independent living. LE has done some interviews there so they are fully aware of that potential connection. I drove by the crime scene at least a dozen times while there. Even knowing where the cart path is and with the foliage down I missed it a few times. It is not an obvious "road" or path at all. I am convinced it is someone who knows the area well. The path appears to be a future driveway for that lot at some point in the future. It looks like a bunch of fill had been brought in and then the path just sort of ends. I guess my point is that even looking for it you can easily miss it.

Interesting. From the reports so far and input like yours, it does appear that way. High likelihood then of someone from the area or frequently visiting there.

 

[Cem75]

http://nyp.st/2h7Qit8
interesting technology

 

[ThinkHard]

http://nyp.st/2h7Qit8
interesting technology

This technology has been around for a while. It how they caught a rapist in Charlottesville over a decade prior.

I wonder how far out they track people down though. If there is a 50% match it is either parent/child, or sibling. If the match is 25% it could be grandparents, uncle, nephew. If it's 12.5% it would be cousins.

So its a hit or miss if someone is in the system...then depending on how close a match it's a gamble how well they match might have known the perp and figuring out which "cousin" it might be.

 

[ForensicMass]

Testing 1,2,3. Hi everyone. This is my initial post. Over the last week I have carefully read through every post in this entire thread in cronological order. I've clicked every link, watched every video and entertained every theory. My interest in this case stems from the following facts: I'm familiar with Princeton. I am a runner. I am a scientist by profession. I spend a lot of time in the woods. I am a treasure hunter, and I hate unsolved mysteries.

I have developed a few theories about what happened to Vanessa and I've got a long list of questions I'm hoping can generate some new direction.

To me, as it currently sits, the case seems to hinge on the obscurity of the cart path. LE has stated that the killer was someone who was familiar with the area. Although we all know they may have additional information, the supposition that the killer was familiar with the area looks to be based on the fact that he apparently knew of and selected this obscure, little known and difficult to see cart path. If, in fact, the cart path was the killers choice, it seems clear to me that he was certainly very familiar with the local area. BUT, another scenario might be equally, or possibly even more likely. What if the killer didn't choose the path- what if Vanessa did? We are all trying to guess about whether the killer knew about the path. But It seems VERY likely that VANESSA knew about the path.

Consider this scenario- perp in dark SUV sees Vanessa as she sets out on her run (she is probably walking at this point, based on our knowledge of her previous running habits) and attempts to abduct or incapacitate her to remove her from the area. She is tough and fit and she manages to escape. Her survival instincts are in control and she looks for her nearest escape route from a ROAD-based attack. She chose the path. Maybe because it was right there. Maybe because she thought she stood a better chance of losing the Perp in the woods. Maybe because she thought that the house near the end of Connor Lane was the closest and best chance of finding help. He parked the SUV within eyesight of witnesses (something that no reasonable pre-planning murderer would do) because he had already committed a felony crime in the abduction attempt or assault and he did not want to leave any witnesses. He chased her down and we know the rest, so to speak.

If the Perp didn't choose the path, it is Very possible that he is NOT local.

I think that her trip to the mountainside market just prior to her fateful run might hold the key to the case. Locals go there, but so doesn't anyone else who needs a snack who happens to be nearby- it's really the only place- a Convergence point. It seems like this is the most likely place where someone unknown (or known) to her may have spied their opportunity that day. Perhaps overheard of her impending running plans, or inferred them from her behavior, clothing, purchases. Watched her return to her moms house, then waited and hoped she would emerge. This would explain how she was intercepted so close to the start of her run (vs. someone randomly driving by and seeing her when she had only been present on the road for a few minutes).

 

[Inthedetails]

Testing 1,2,3. Hi everyone. This is my initial post. Over the last week I have carefully read through every post in this entire thread in cronological order. I've clicked every link, watched every video and entertained every theory. My interest in this case stems from the following facts: I'm familiar with Princeton. I am a runner. I am a scientist by profession. I spend a lot of time in the woods. I am a treasure hunter, and I hate unsolved mysteries.

I have developed a few theories about what happened to Vanessa and I've got a long list of questions I'm hoping can generate some new direction.

To me, as it currently sits, the case seems to hinge on the obscurity of the cart path. LE has stated that the killer was someone who was familiar with the area. Although we all know they may have additional information, the supposition that the killer was familiar with the area looks to be based on the fact that he apparently knew of and selected this obscure, little known and difficult to see cart path. If, in fact, the cart path was the killers choice, it seems clear to me that he was certainly very familiar with the local area. BUT, another scenario might be equally, or possibly even more likely. What if the killer didn't choose the path- what if Vanessa did? We are all trying to guess about whether the killer knew about the path. But It seems VERY likely that VANESSA knew about the path.

Consider this scenario- perp in dark SUV sees Vanessa as she sets out on her run (she is probably walking at this point, based on our knowledge of her previous running habits) and attempts to abduct or incapacitate her to remove her from the area. She is tough and fit and she manages to escape. Her survival instincts are in control and she looks for her nearest escape route from a ROAD-based attack. She chose the path. Maybe because it was right there. Maybe because she thought she stood a better chance of losing the Perp in the woods. Maybe because she thought that the house near the end of Connor Lane was the closest and best chance of finding help. He parked the SUV within eyesight of witnesses (something that no reasonable pre-planning murderer would do) because he had already committed a felony crime in the abduction attempt or assault and he did not want to leave any witnesses. He chased her down and we know the rest, so to speak.

If the Perp didn't choose the path, it is Very possible that he is NOT local.

I think that her trip to the mountainside market just prior to her fateful run might hold the key to the case. Locals go there, but so doesn't anyone else who needs a snack who happens to be nearby- it's really the only place- a Convergence point. It seems like this is the most likely place where someone unknown (or known) to her may have spied their opportunity that day. Perhaps overheard of her impending running plans, or inferred them from her behavior, clothing, purchases. Watched her return to her moms house, then waited and hoped she would emerge. This would explain how she was intercepted so close to the start of her run (vs. someone randomly driving by and seeing her when she had only been present on the road for a few minutes).

Way to think of a new possibility. You could be absolutely right.

IDK, of course, but I do appreciate a new idea on the table.

And, WELCOME!

 

[Steleheart]

Testing 1,2,3. Hi everyone. This is my initial post. Over the last week I have carefully read through every post in this entire thread in cronological order. I've clicked every link, watched every video and entertained every theory. My interest in this case stems from the following facts: I'm familiar with Princeton. I am a runner. I am a scientist by profession. I spend a lot of time in the woods. I am a treasure hunter, and I hate unsolved mysteries.

I have developed a few theories about what happened to Vanessa and I've got a long list of questions I'm hoping can generate some new direction.

To me, as it currently sits, the case seems to hinge on the obscurity of the cart path. LE has stated that the killer was someone who was familiar with the area. Although we all know they may have additional information, the supposition that the killer was familiar with the area looks to be based on the fact that he apparently knew of and selected this obscure, little known and difficult to see cart path. If, in fact, the cart path was the killers choice, it seems clear to me that he was certainly very familiar with the local area. BUT, another scenario might be equally, or possibly even more likely. What if the killer didn't choose the path- what if Vanessa did? We are all trying to guess about whether the killer knew about the path. But It seems VERY likely that VANESSA knew about the path.

Consider this scenario- perp in dark SUV sees Vanessa as she sets out on her run (she is probably walking at this point, based on our knowledge of her previous running habits) and attempts to abduct or incapacitate her to remove her from the area. She is tough and fit and she manages to escape. Her survival instincts are in control and she looks for her nearest escape route from a ROAD-based attack. She chose the path. Maybe because it was right there. Maybe because she thought she stood a better chance of losing the Perp in the woods. Maybe because she thought that the house near the end of Connor Lane was the closest and best chance of finding help. He parked the SUV within eyesight of witnesses (something that no reasonable pre-planning murderer would do) because he had already committed a felony crime in the abduction attempt or assault and he did not want to leave any witnesses. He chased her down and we know the rest, so to speak.

If the Perp didn't choose the path, it is Very possible that he is NOT local.

I think that her trip to the mountainside market just prior to her fateful run might hold the key to the case. Locals go there, but so doesn't anyone else who needs a snack who happens to be nearby- it's really the only place- a Convergence point. It seems like this is the most likely place where someone unknown (or known) to her may have spied their opportunity that day. Perhaps overheard of her impending running plans, or inferred them from her behavior, clothing, purchases. Watched her return to her moms house, then waited and hoped she would emerge. This would explain how she was intercepted so close to the start of her run (vs. someone randomly driving by and seeing her when she had only been present on the road for a few minutes).

:Welcome1: ForensicMass! Great name and great first post.

You hate unsolved mysteries? Well you'll be busy on the Cold Cases Forum! http://www.websleuths.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?37-Cold-Cases

Happy Sleuthing!

 

[ThinkHard]

Testing 1,2,3. Hi everyone. This is my initial post. Over the last week I have carefully read through every post in this entire thread in cronological order. I've clicked every link, watched every video and entertained every theory. My interest in this case stems from the following facts: I'm familiar with Princeton. I am a runner. I am a scientist by profession. I spend a lot of time in the woods. I am a treasure hunter, and I hate unsolved mysteries.

I have developed a few theories about what happened to Vanessa and I've got a long list of questions I'm hoping can generate some new direction.

To me, as it currently sits, the case seems to hinge on the obscurity of the cart path. LE has stated that the killer was someone who was familiar with the area. Although we all know they may have additional information, the supposition that the killer was familiar with the area looks to be based on the fact that he apparently knew of and selected this obscure, little known and difficult to see cart path. If, in fact, the cart path was the killers choice, it seems clear to me that he was certainly very familiar with the local area. BUT, another scenario might be equally, or possibly even more likely. What if the killer didn't choose the path- what if Vanessa did? We are all trying to guess about whether the killer knew about the path. But It seems VERY likely that VANESSA knew about the path.

Consider this scenario- perp in dark SUV sees Vanessa as she sets out on her run (she is probably walking at this point, based on our knowledge of her previous running habits) and attempts to abduct or incapacitate her to remove her from the area. She is tough and fit and she manages to escape. Her survival instincts are in control and she looks for her nearest escape route from a ROAD-based attack. She chose the path. Maybe because it was right there. Maybe because she thought she stood a better chance of losing the Perp in the woods. Maybe because she thought that the house near the end of Connor Lane was the closest and best chance of finding help. He parked the SUV within eyesight of witnesses (something that no reasonable pre-planning murderer would do) because he had already committed a felony crime in the abduction attempt or assault and he did not want to leave any witnesses. He chased her down and we know the rest, so to speak.

If the Perp didn't choose the path, it is Very possible that he is NOT local.

I think that her trip to the mountainside market just prior to her fateful run might hold the key to the case. Locals go there, but so doesn't anyone else who needs a snack who happens to be nearby- it's really the only place- a Convergence point. It seems like this is the most likely place where someone unknown (or known) to her may have spied their opportunity that day. Perhaps overheard of her impending running plans, or inferred them from her behavior, clothing, purchases. Watched her return to her moms house, then waited and hoped she would emerge. This would explain how she was intercepted so close to the start of her run (vs. someone randomly driving by and seeing her when she had only been present on the road for a few minutes).

Welcome to the group. While I think it's an interesting theory it's is one we have explored before...her running away into the woods...but I just don't see that...she may or may not have been familiar with the cart path, it certainly would have been obvious to her every time she ran (it's not that hidden), but I really don't see her running into the woods to get away...there was a driveway close by she could have run up and houses just around the bend...it would have made more sense for her to run to an actual house or to run down the road (which had been my instinct in a situation like that) where your more likely to encounter a car driving by who would see you an help (that road gets fairly regular travel).

She could have willingly gone done that path on her own, but I don't see her getting there because she was trying to run away from the perp.

Also if you're in Princeton at 1pm on a backroad on a hot summer day...chances are good you are local...that road doesn't get a lot of non-local traffic period. My point is if he wasn't local in your theory, why was he just driving around backroads in town? What would have put him there? You wouldn't drive to Princeton just to go to a convenience store, that's for sure, and it's hardly a town you just pass through.

I don't follow him spotting her at the market...what does he do, get in his car at the same time she leaves and follows her home? Then what does he do for an hour? How does he know where to park to wait for her? How does he know which directions she would leave her moms house? I just don't see him hanging out in his dark SUV in BSR for an hour waiting for her to leave the house then leave his car their while he kills her...I just don't see that as being likely or even practical for him to accomplish.

 

[Kickoff61]

Testing 1,2,3. Hi everyone. This is my initial post. Over the last week I have carefully read through every post in this entire thread in cronological order. I've clicked every link, watched every video and entertained every theory. My interest in this case stems from the following facts: I'm familiar with Princeton. I am a runner. I am a scientist by profession. I spend a lot of time in the woods. I am a treasure hunter, and I hate unsolved mysteries.

I have developed a few theories about what happened to Vanessa and I've got a long list of questions I'm hoping can generate some new direction.

To me, as it currently sits, the case seems to hinge on the obscurity of the cart path. LE has stated that the killer was someone who was familiar with the area. Although we all know they may have additional information, the supposition that the killer was familiar with the area looks to be based on the fact that he apparently knew of and selected this obscure, little known and difficult to see cart path. If, in fact, the cart path was the killers choice, it seems clear to me that he was certainly very familiar with the local area. BUT, another scenario might be equally, or possibly even more likely. What if the killer didn't choose the path- what if Vanessa did? We are all trying to guess about whether the killer knew about the path. But It seems VERY likely that VANESSA knew about the path.

Consider this scenario- perp in dark SUV sees Vanessa as she sets out on her run (she is probably walking at this point, based on our knowledge of her previous running habits) and attempts to abduct or incapacitate her to remove her from the area. She is tough and fit and she manages to escape. Her survival instincts are in control and she looks for her nearest escape route from a ROAD-based attack. She chose the path. Maybe because it was right there. Maybe because she thought she stood a better chance of losing the Perp in the woods. Maybe because she thought that the house near the end of Connor Lane was the closest and best chance of finding help. He parked the SUV within eyesight of witnesses (something that no reasonable pre-planning murderer would do) because he had already committed a felony crime in the abduction attempt or assault and he did not want to leave any witnesses. He chased her down and we know the rest, so to speak.

If the Perp didn't choose the path, it is Very possible that he is NOT local.

I think that her trip to the mountainside market just prior to her fateful run might hold the key to the case. Locals go there, but so doesn't anyone else who needs a snack who happens to be nearby- it's really the only place- a Convergence point. It seems like this is the most likely place where someone unknown (or known) to her may have spied their opportunity that day. Perhaps overheard of her impending running plans, or inferred them from her behavior, clothing, purchases. Watched her return to her moms house, then waited and hoped she would emerge. This would explain how she was intercepted so close to the start of her run (vs. someone randomly driving by and seeing her when she had only been present on the road for a few minutes).

I don't know enough about the cart path. But in regards to her running away from the Perp down the path, I suppose it depends what direction he is coming at her. If he is coming at her from the road in that area, she wouldn't likely run toward him to run by him to a house on the road or to stay on the road. She may run away being the direction of the path. Especially if his vehicle blocked part of the entrance to the path, forcing her to run in that direction.

I have no idea if he approached her in a vehicle initially or not, as I find it hard to believe he parked there throughout the time of doing this and there are so many scenarios with this , especially with very few facts known. But, I can see her running down the path if that is the direction 'away' from him. (and as you mentioned possibly trying to get to the house in that direction too)

 

[Kickoff61]

Also, there is no proof she was attacked at the beginning of her run. There is a 2 hour time frame 1 - 3. This gives her time to run in the neighborhood before an attack happens. There is also not evidence this is the primary crime scene. May be unlikely, but it could be a secondary crime scene. Attacked somewhere else and then brought there. I am not saying that happened. I am showing there are many possibilities. I continue to repeat myself at this site, but now we have a new person here. So I will repeat again. This is all speculation because there is so little known and there could be information to change the entire time line. It is difficult to narrow down one scenario when 'so many' are possible with 'very few' facts.

 

[ForensicMass]

Let's just say we are dissecting the possibility that this person was not local. Admittedly, based on the scene I initially was fairly confident that the person Was local. But if a vehicle was involved, I am far less convinced of that for many reasons that we can delve into shortly, but namely it is unnecessary exposure if the person had ANY other means to get there (if walking was theoretically possible) then they would have employed those means.

So let's just try to investigate whether and how an outsider would have committed this crime:


Regarding why Vanessa might have run down the path in an effort to escape I can only relate a personal experience. One day several years ago I was out in the woods with a metal detector looking for old coins. I was traipsing around in the leaves when I started to feel sharp pinches all over my body. It took me a couple of seconds to realize that I had stepped on an enormous hornets nest, but the instant that I made this realization I dropped my equipment and booked it through the thicket. I had no particular direction in mind except AWAY. My point being that when I was surprised by the threat, I did not have any time to weigh options like a rational person would. I just instinctively ran. There were certainly clearer paths away from the bees nest than the way that my instinctual impulses lead me to take.

So, sure a driveway could be a better option if you have time to really weigh it out, but then again perhaps she knew that her neighbors were not usually home sundays and that running up the driveway might be a death trap. In my hypothetical scenario the attempted abduction happens in the immediate vicinity of the path. When she is being attacked the only thing her brain can think is to get away from this person immediately. I still see HER choosing the path as a greater possibility when considering a perpetrator that is not local.

Regarding him spotting her at the market - If the perpetrator was an outsider, the most likely place he would have encountered her seems to be the market. I work for the town on a few occasions a year. Whenever I am out there I always stop at the market usually twice a day I also recall someone on here saying that they had a ritual Sunday drive that included a stop at the market- so for some people a convenience store might actually be a plotted stopping point. If she went to the market before her run that is the time where she had the greatest level of physical exposure. Do we know that she was there a full hour before her run? I agree that it would be strange for a car to drive up and down BSR killing time for an hour. But then again if he knew of her somewhat immediate plans to run it makes more sense. You have to think like a deranged person. If this person saw her at the market and decided she was a suitable or even a perfect victim, waiting 45 minutes to attack her would not be unusual. His adrenaline would have been heightened and he would have been mentally focused on whatever sick fantasy he was hoping to carry out. That window would only have provided him more time to survey the area and get a feeling for how feasible it might be to capture her without being seen.

 

[Cem75]

Do we know of any color about the trip to the store, i.e. witnesses who have publicly gone on record? I was not aware she stopped by there prior to her run. Sounds like the market did not have any security camera based on prior comments.

It really pisses me off this person is still on the loose. Such a shame.

 

[The Farm]

Morning all,

Question, do we know if when Vanessa did her run she went by the cart path twice? Such as once when she left her Mom's and then again on her return?? Or did she do a block and only go by that path once?

And welcome ForensicMass. :santahat:

 

[Kickoff61]

Morning all,

Question, do we know if when Vanessa did her run she went by the cart path twice? Such as once when she left her Mom's and then again on her return?? Or did she do a block and only go by that path once?

And welcome ForensicMass. :santahat:

I am not sure. I know earlier on the different routes she would do were put in here. I think it is unknown which one she was doing that day.

 

[Kickoff61]

IF a vehicle is involved in this , I don't think that necessarily means it has to be an outsider. A local person could be driving home or used their vehicle to transport her from somewhere else or if it happened at that cart path scene, they could have returned in vehicle quickly for some reason. Maybe none of this is true, but are all possibilities without being ruled out.

 

[Kickoff61]

Does anyone know where it is reported that she went to the store beforehand?

 

[liz b.]

Has LE ever mentioned her phone or internet activity in the days /weeks leading up to her murder ? Tia to anyone who might know. Also, is it known if and where she worked out in NYC ?