MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #5

[Coleraine]

With respect to a firearm. Does It seem to anyone else that someone with this kind of propensity for violence would own one? What would be the reasons they didn't have one, or seemingly didn't have one on them?

Too young?
Prior convictions? (would seem DNA would be in system of this we're the case)
Left it home? This would Point toward not planned at the time he left his house that day.

Maybe he doesn't like guns?

Just a new topic to discuss, if anyone has any thoughts on it.

I'm of the opinion that this was an unplanned crime of opportunity so even if he had a gun, he might not have had it with him that day. Although I do think this was unplanned, I appreciate your posts, ForensicMass. I'm certainly open to new ideas and you've provided some fascinating analysis to consider.
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[1306kayaker]

With respect to a firearm. Does It seem to anyone else that someone with this kind of propensity for violence would own one? What would be the reasons they didn't have one, or seemingly didn't have one on them?

Too young?
Prior convictions? (would seem DNA would be in system of this we're the case)
Left it home? This would Point toward not planned at the time he left his house that day.

Maybe he doesn't like guns?

Just a new topic to discuss, if anyone has any thoughts on it.

This is a kind of crazy idea but your comment about the firearm made me think what if he had a firearm but knew that the ballistics were traceable? Would a volunteer fireman be issued a gun? If so, would the guns "fingerprint" be on record? Total long shot but someone identifying as an EMT or volunteer fire fighter could maybe have approached VM on her walk w/o suspicion, would prob have a tool capable of burning her, and may have had a gun that would be used to threaten but not shoot.

Apologies in advance to any EMTs and volunteer firefighters on Websleuths!

 

[Rocky1]

I'm of the opinion that this was an unplanned crime of opportunity so even if he had a gun, he might not have had it with him that day. Although I do think this was unplanned, I appreciate your posts, ForensicMass. I'm certainly open to new ideas and you've provided some fascinating analysis to consider.
'

Ditto on your posts FM. Your thoughts are as good as anyones at this point. It's nice to have open minded people here. I may question some of your reasoning, but only so everyone can think it out and see if it fits, not because I think your points are invalid.

 

[ThinkHard]

You still continue to ignore what I am saying. I've been there a few times per year over the last decade. That would make 30 visits. Certainly didn't grow up there but none of that has anything to do with whether or not she ran to points north of the store. Reference "many runs " that did not go north. Which runs are you talking about ?????????

There are four known routes in MapMyRun and two of them go north of the store. And one of them is the out and back on BSR only.

So what are you talking about when you say she wouldn't normally be at points north of be store? That is not accurate.

You Seem to take a personal issue or attempt to dispute just about everything that I say. I noticed this pattern in previous discussions that I read through before my involvement and some of those people seem to have given up on the forum. I don't want to give up but if I can't contribute something of value I don't see the point.

Technically you are right on a map some of those points other then Allen are slightly north of the store, Technically they are also more west then north, but yes on a map where Radford comes out is slightlly north and to the west.

But I am really not sure how the fact of whether it was north or west or northwest changes the fact walking to the store wouldn't make any sense given its location and her home and her typical routes. That fact remains the same.

I am not taking any personal issue you just seem to not let up on anything even after I repeatedly say ok you can see it that way I don't, let's agree to disagree ... you just go on and on and on with it and then tell me I'm ignoring facts.

As for disputing things you have said...isn't the very point for being hear to hash out theories and break them down to the most probable? I believe you said that yourself...so if I see something in your theory that doesn't add up timer of course I'm gonna ask about it or explore it...because that's how You work through theories. And again when I've said let's just agree to disagree you have been that one that hasn't let up and keeps going with something.

Lastly disagreeing with you is very different then ignoring you. Just because I disagree with some of your conclusions doesn't mean I have ignored you. I don't know why you think because I disagree with you on some things it means I am ignoring you, that's simply not true.

It's ok for us to see things differently. It doesn't make either one of us right or wrong.

 

[ForensicMass]

I'm of the opinion that this was an unplanned crime of opportunity so even if he had a gun, he might not have had it with him that day. Although I do think this was unplanned, I appreciate your posts, ForensicMass. I'm certainly open to new ideas and you've provided some fascinating analysis to consider.
'

That's exactly the value in asking these kinds of questions- at least in my mind. Follow me- a guy who would strangle someone to death would seem to be someone who would like to own a gun, right? As Rocky succinctly put it, this guy would seem to like anything that helps him overpower someone else. So let's presume he has a gun, and analyze what that might tell us about the crime:

As you pointed out, it would seem to tell us that he did not plan to abduct Vanessa when he left the house that day. If that could be established, that would be VERY Useful. It would seem to rule out all the theories about someone who's been plotting and planning and hiding and scouting etc. It would mean the convergence of the killer and victim was incidental on that day. And it would mean the crime had an element of spontaneity.

All of that sounds good to me.

But also as Rocky pointed out, there is another possibility. He had a gun but didn't use it. Best reason? I think rockys best reason was the gunshot. But that again would point to someone who didn't plan ahead, since a homemade silencer can be made pretty easily with store bought products.

 

[ForensicMass]

Technically you are right on a map some of those points other then Allen are slightly north of the store, Technically they are also more west then north, but yes on a map where Radford comes out is slightlly north and to the west.

But I am really not sure how the fact of whether it was north or west or northwest changes the fact walking to the store wouldn't make any sense given its location and her home and her typical routes. That fact remains the same.

I am not taking any personal issue you just seem to not let up on anything even after I repeatedly say ok you can see it that way I don't, let's agree to disagree ... you just go on and on and on with it and then tell me I'm ignoring facts.

You're right. Whether the points are north or south doesn't change that you are right about the store and the sensibility of walking both to the store and then on a separate walk. In every response I made to your post, I affirmed that I AGREED with this. I was simply trying to correct a small detail which you referenced inaccurately, purely for the sake of keeping things accurate on here. But instead of seeing that my minor correction to your statement was technically correct, as you finally just stated, you opted to wage what feels like some kind of turf battle over who is more "local". In truth, I honestly have spent hours looking at the map over the last few days. And to be told that I must be mistaken when in fact I know I am not mistaken (because i am literally looking at the map, and because I believe I have studied the running routes more than anyone here (chime in if you think I'm wrong about that)), feels like all my efforts in trying to help here are being minimized.

 

[Rocky1]

Maybe they think he had help.

Not the way it works. If they think he had help, they arrest him, get him to talk on the hope of a reduced sentence, or maybe wire him to get his "help" to talk.
They are not going to wait till detective John gets back from vacation, or till after the Christmas holidays, or drive around the neighborhood swapping people for DNA. If they are that sure, they are going at 3 am. or 3 pm. It doesn't matter, but ASAP.

 

[ThinkHard]

That's exactly the value in asking these kinds of questions- at least in my mind. Follow me- a guy who would strangle someone to death would seem to be someone who would like to own a gun, right? As Rocky succinctly put it, this guy would seem to like anything that helps him overpower someone else. So let's presume he has a gun, and analyze what that might tell us about the crime:

As you pointed out, it would seem to tell us that he did not plan to abduct Vanessa when he left the house that day. If that could be established, that would be VERY Useful. It would seem to rule out all the theories about someone who's been plotting and planning and hiding and scouting etc. It would mean the convergence of the killer and victim was incidental on that day. And it would mean the crime had an element of spontaneity.

All of that sounds good to me.

But also as Rocky pointed out, there is another possibility. He had a gun but didn't use it. Best reason? I think rockys best reason was the gunshot. But that again would point to someone who didn't plan ahead, since a homemade silencer can be made pretty easily with store bought products.

I wonder if statistics exist anywhere regarding murders without guns and gun ownership?

 

[Coleraine]

He certainly could have had a gun since males use guns most often to kill by a wide margin I believe. But perhaps there was a reason why he wanted to use a more "personal" means of killing. And boy am I uncomfortable even typing this. It makes it that much worse to imagine what she must have gone through that day.

 

[ForensicMass]

Also, just for the record. Regarding people reaching the conclusions I've reached- I want to say that although I've certainly mentally ruled out some things :

No Connection between VM & KV cases
SUV was involved
There was no scheduled secret meet-up
LE has killers DNA

I could sway my opinion in any direction if given sufficient supportive evidence. I am an empiricist to the core.

Fair to say I have not fully reach any solid conclusion about what happened. Just a relative rating of liklihood for each of the possible scenarios developed to date.

 

[femalejogger]

One more thing THAT JUST HIT ME ABOUT THIS

Based on these weather observations and her normal distances, I seriously doubt she would have been planning one of her longer runs that day. I would say she was going for 3 slow miles, not the 6 mile loop which included BALL HILL ROAD.

I think this is a good assumption. I would also throw out the possibility that she did an out and back that day - making it only as far as the top of BSR before turning back. This would put her on the cart path side of BSR which would make an abduction from BSR at that specific location more explainable.

 

[ForensicMass]

I wonder if statistics exist anywhere regarding murders without guns and gun ownership?

Really good question. NRA should know something about this. Though they may only share if it appears to benefit gun ownership.

 

[tlcya]

Ahem

It is okay to agree to disagree.

 

[ForensicMass]

I think this is a good assumption. I would also throw out the possibility that she did an out and back that day - making it only as far as the top of BSR before turning back. This would put her on the cart path side of BSR which would make an abduction from BSR at that specific location more explainable.

I see that possibility. That would be a 2 mile outing taking her roughly 25 minutes. You may not have caught up yet, but interestingly, the last run tracked before her map my run settings were changed to private was exactly that - out and back to the RADFORD road intersection. I have speculated that she intended to go farther, but perhaps something spooked her. And she turned around and headed home at a quicker pace. Then changed her privacy settings.

 

[Rocky1]

I see that possibility. That would be a 2 mile outing taking her roughly 25 minutes. You may not have caught up yet, but interestingly, the last run tracked before her map my run settings were changed to private was exactly that - out and back to the RADFORD road intersection. I have speculated that she intended to go farther, but perhaps something spooked her. And she turned around and headed home at a quicker pace. Then changed her privacy settings.

Could be, but, if I remember, you said it was 91* that day? Maybe she turned around because of the heat?
If she never turned around before at that spot, I'd go for the "spooking", but where she had, I'd say it was planned. JMO.

 

[femalejogger]

But, FBI do not ordinarily get involved with state level homicide, unless some other issues are involved.

Since 9/11 and certainly in the past couple of years, the FBI has started playing much more nicely with local LE - mostly because they are so spread so thin that they need local help. The result is a whole lot of task forces standing up in cities that may not have previously rated this type of interaction on a local level. So when they say the FBI is involved, it may just be the task force agent who has a desk in the Worcester PD or at the Mass State Police (examples - I don't know what the exact situation is in Mass) as opposed to some formal request for a specialized FBI capability. These task force agents work with local PD's everyday.

 

[ForensicMass]

Could be, but, if I remember, you said it was 91* that day? Maybe she turned around because of the heat?
If she never turned around before at that spot, I'd go for the "spooking", but where she had, I'd say it was planned. JMO.

Good memory. The high temp that day was 91, but when she was out, at 10:25 AM, it was 80. There is only one mapped instance of her running to that spot and then turning around. It was the Sunday 9-6-15 run, after which her mapped runs became private.every other (mapped) time that she passed this spot, she continues on and does a northerly or southerly loop.

 

[Rocky1]

Also, just for the record. Regarding people reaching the conclusions I've reached- I want to say that although I've certainly mentally ruled out some things :

No Connection between VM & KV cases
SUV was involved
There was no scheduled secret meet-up
LE has killers DNA

I could sway my opinion in any direction if given sufficient supportive evidence. I am an empiricist to the core.

Fair to say I have not fully reach any solid conclusion about what happened. Just a relative rating of liklihood for each of the possible scenarios developed to date.

Here's mine.
1) No connection between VM & KM cases.
2)Sure an SUV was spotted.. not convinced it was involved. I think LE is following up on a clue, but don't think LE is convinced either, If so, why the DNA dragnet, on top of it being focused within walking distance to the crime scene, and not further out by Rt 140?
3)There was no scheduled secret meet up.
4)LE has killers DNA.
5)LE has no clue who this is yet.
All my opinion, and anyone is welcome to disagree.

 

[Rocky1]

Since 9/11 and certainly in the past couple of years, the FBI has started playing much more nicely with local LE - mostly because they are so spread so thin that they need local help. The result is a whole lot of task forces standing up in cities that may not have previously rated this type of interaction on a local level. So when they say the FBI is involved, it may just be the task force agent who has a desk in the Worcester PD or at the Mass State Police (examples - I don't know what the exact situation is in Mass) as opposed to some formal request for a specialized FBI capability. These task force agents work with local PD's everyday.

Also, the FBI gets involved in cases that involve serial killers, and they may have got involved thinking that initially the VM/KV cases may have been connected.

 

[Rocky1]

Ok had a gun, but left it at home?
Going back to the bicycle theory, so, if anyone is getting tired of that, please jump past it.
The plan was stewing in his mind for a while, but was waiting for the right moment. Was out on his bike that day, but being so hot, wasn't sure if Vanessa would be out, so left the gun at home, thinking maybe even if she was going to be out, today's not the day.too hot etc.
Then he rode past her, when she first left her moms, changed his mind quickly, and said this is the time, then rode past her and hid out and waited.