Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #13

[MsBetsy]

That means nothing though does it? He doesn’t have to have murdered before to be guilty of murdering Madeleine.
And actually we do know he has sexually assaulted children before, many times in fact. We know he has an interest in children.

Yes, wasn't he just 17 when he first sexually assaulted a young child? Most offenders start out small and then as they get more confident move on to bigger crimes. They also get better at covering up their tracks. Imo

 

[Newthoughts]

That means nothing though does it? He doesn’t have to have murdered before to be guilty of murdering Madeleine.
And actually we do know he has sexually assaulted children before, many times in fact. We know he has an interest in children.

And the statistics on abducted children sadly suggest that they are killed within hours of abduction. If he abducted her it is statistically likely he killed her

That is not enough in my opinion for LE to go from stating it's a missing person case to saying they're 99.9% sure she is dead so I'm guessing they have something more concrete about elements of that night - just not enough to pin it on CB and possibly not the whole evening. MOO

 

[Newthoughts]

Deleted

 

[tedtink]

I agree it could be a key piece of circumstantial evidence if they have other circumstantial evidence to tie him either to the crime scene or the crime itself.

But by itself, I think it is hardly damning seeing we know he lived not far away.

Such is the nature of circumstantial evidence. It is the cumulative nature which is important.

So far all we really have is a bunch of propensity reasoning.

We know he did a rape of a 72 year old woman. We know he had child *advertiser censored*. We know he was a drug dealer. We know he committed crimes like burglary.

But to me, none of this reaches the standard required of admissible similar fact evidence.

We have nothing to say he abducted a child before, or attacked a child.

We have nothing to say he murdered anyone before.

Maybe the germans have this evidence, but until I hear of it, I remain sceptical.

I do understand what you're saying and respect your reason to remain sceptical.

Propensity reasoning used in psychologically profiling suspects is invaluable in cases such as this imo.

I tend to have faith in HCW when he said they have concrete evidence, facts and not mere indications that CB killed MM.

If, indeed, his words have been misrepresented, or lost in translation (which I doubt) this may prove to be incompetence of many agencies on a monumental scale.

JMO - IMO

 

[tedtink]

I do understand what you're saying and respect your reason to remain sceptical.

Propensity reasoning used in psychologically profiling suspects is invaluable in cases such as this imo.

I tend to have faith in HCW when he said they have concrete evidence, facts and not mere indications that CB killed MM.

If, indeed, his words have been misrepresented, or lost in translation (which I doubt) this may prove to be incompetence of many agencies on a monumental scale.

JMO - IMO

Just wanted to add - I'm not a gambling kind of gal, but if I had to take a punt on HCW's evidence then I sure betty has it.

ETD - Darn auto spelling! I sure bet he has it

 

[Chiatos]

That paper is written in Spanish so perhaps they were Spanish. Cristian and Cristián are Spanish names. Cristian is also used in Romania.

Spanish Names (page 2) - Behind the Name

It's in Spanish because it derives from the Metodo 3 investigator(s). They were Spanish.
Doesn't automatically mean that the phone call was from Spain. Could have been from Portugal.

The way the report has been incorporated in the Processo files is very poor; no date, no (blanked out) surnames etc.
Whoever that Cristian is, regardless whether he is CB or someone else: in the entire Processo files there is no mention at all of any other Cristian/Christian!

Isn't that odd?

One thing is for sure: that "Cristian" was a close acquaintance of Sergey and visited in PdL.
Why hasn't he been questioned and/or mentioned anywhere else in the files?
Very odd!

Now, we all know that Segey is for sure Sergey.
Maybe you like to assume Cristian is Cristiano or perhaps Cristián.
I won´t rule out that Cristian is CB. Question is: who is Alison? Also no mention of an Alison in the entire file.

 

[Lyndaloo]

wasnt she on the route that CB took once of twice per day from his home to the beach?..

I don’t recall reading that Tim, Was CB living near Praia da Rocha in 2004?

 

[Lyndaloo]

It's in Spanish because it derives from the Metodo 3 investigator(s). They were Spanish.
Doesn't automatically mean that the phone call was from Spain. Could have been from Portugal.

The way the report has been incorporated in the Processo files is very poor; no date, no (blanked out) surnames etc.
Whoever that Cristian is, regardless whether he is CB or someone else: in the entire Processo files there is no mention at all of any other Cristian/Christian!

Isn't that odd?

One thing is for sure: that "Cristian" was a close acquaintance of Sergey and visited in PdL.
Why hasn't he been questioned and/or mentioned anywhere else in the files?
Very odd!

Now, we all know that Segey is for sure Sergey.
Maybe you like to assume Cristian is Cristiano or perhaps Cristián.
I won´t rule out that Cristian is CB. Question is: who is Alison? Also no mention of an Alison in the entire file.

I highlighted this a few threads ago, it is VERY odd there are no surnames or statement from Alison. I think CB & SM probably knew each other. Maybe it was part of the plan for Alison to cast suspicion at SM? And him in turn at RM knowing that neither of them carried out abduction of MM, therefor knew PJ would never have enough to charge SM or RM? Maybe they were complicit in some way?Remember RM received £600,000 in damages.....all part of the money making plan perhaps? Maybe too far fetched but still possible?

 

[tedtink]

It's in Spanish because it derives from the Metodo 3 investigator(s). They were Spanish.
Doesn't automatically mean that the phone call was from Spain. Could have been from Portugal.

The way the report has been incorporated in the Processo files is very poor; no date, no (blanked out) surnames etc.
Whoever that Cristian is, regardless whether he is CB or someone else: in the entire Processo files there is no mention at all of any other Cristian/Christian!

Isn't that odd?

One thing is for sure: that "Cristian" was a close acquaintance of Sergey and visited in PdL.
Why hasn't he been questioned and/or mentioned anywhere else in the files?
Very odd!

Now, we all know that Segey is for sure Sergey.
Maybe you like to assume Cristian is Cristiano or perhaps Cristián.
I won´t rule out that Cristian is CB. Question is: who is Alison? Also no mention of an Alison in the entire file.

IMO this is just a massive red herring and best ignored.
It hasn't been followed up because it's irrelevant imo.
There's hundreds, thousands of men called C.
If it were CB, which is highly unlikely, he would not have grassed, on a so called friend of the same perversion, to A.
IMO.

 

[MENDEL]

That thing about anonymous Alison and Cristian reporting something 4 years before about SM seems something badly supported (no surnames, no dates indeed) just for Spanish Método 3 perhaps justify their fees. That time they had already info on SM's computers so they risked nothing.

 

[peanutJelly]

It's in Spanish because it derives from the Metodo 3 investigator(s). They were Spanish.
Doesn't automatically mean that the phone call was from Spain. Could have been from Portugal.

The way the report has been incorporated in the Processo files is very poor; no date, no (blanked out) surnames etc.
Whoever that Cristian is, regardless whether he is CB or someone else: in the entire Processo files there is no mention at all of any other Cristian/Christian!

Isn't that odd?

One thing is for sure: that "Cristian" was a close acquaintance of Sergey and visited in PdL.
Why hasn't he been questioned and/or mentioned anywhere else in the files?
Very odd!

Now, we all know that Segey is for sure Sergey.
Maybe you like to assume Cristian is Cristiano or perhaps Cristián.
I won´t rule out that Cristian is CB. Question is: who is Alison? Also no mention of an Alison in the entire file.

But then wasn’t it Christian who found the child abuse images? If he was involved in their production (Not necessarily the actual images he found) I don’t think he would have pointed out his discovery to his girlfriend, unless to give the impression that he disagreed with it?

 

[MENDEL]

Whoever is Cristian, if there is any, he isn't CB for sure. Can you imagine him complaining a g/f a friend of his had those things in his computer?

 

[Tekno]

Whoever is Cristian, if there is any, he isn't CB for sure. Can you imagine him complaining a g/f a friend of his had those things in his computer?

Christian R aka DJ Shifty might have been Allison’s boyfriend. IMO.

 

[MENDEL]

After all this brainstorming, I'm now inclined to thinking about the window as the way to enter and leave. Shutters are quite easy to open from outside. Window could be unlocked (for fresh air through shutter slots) or maybe it's easy to open with a tool. When O'Brien briefly checked the room, before KM, he noticed much more light than expected. Shutters already lifted? Things start making sense. Someone watching on the corner would help.

 

[tedtink]

I highlighted this a few threads ago, it is VERY odd there are no surnames or statement from Alison. I think CB & SM probably knew each other. Maybe it was part of the plan for Alison to cast suspicion at SM? And him in turn at RM knowing that neither of them carried out abduction of MM, therefor knew PJ would never have enough to charge SM or RM? Maybe they were complicit in some way?Remember RM received £600,000 in damages.....all part of the money making plan perhaps? Maybe too far fetched but still possible?

Christian R aka DJ Shifty might have been Allison’s boyfriend. IMO.

Who is CR / DJ shifty??

 

[tedtink]

After all this brainstorming, I'm now inclined to thinking about the window as the way to enter and leave. Shutters are quite easy to open from outside. Window could be unlocked (for fresh air through shutter slots) or maybe it's easy to open with a tool. When O'Brien briefly checked the room, before KM, he noticed much more light than expected. Shutters already lifted? Things start making sense. Someone watching on the corner would help.

It seems it was certainly a tool that opened it imo.

 

[peanutJelly]

It seems it was certainly a tool that opened it imo.

IMO in by the window, out by the door. Probably the usual way to enter and exit with his more standard burglaries

 

[MENDEL]

It seems it was certainly a tool that opened it imo.

Why are you so sure, Ted?

 

[MENDEL]

IMO in by the window, out by the door. Probably the usual way to enter and exit with his more standard burglaries

I think that if he chose window to enter he chose window to leave. He had very limited time this time. He almost certainly didn't even wander around the house or he would take some valuables as he's formatted to do.

 

[MENDEL]

Something much discussed here is why on 4rd day? Well, after thinking, there's something he missed after targeting the girl: where were their parents spending holiday? Perhaps not that easy to know. He risked losing opportunity. Also, perhaps this wasn't his first trial or he's dumb lucky guy.