Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect #2

[mrjitty]

It does seem quite interesting to me, that the two doctor parents of the girl would be prime suspects, when there was at least one dodgy guy like this one living in the area. Why anyone would distrust a group of doctor/parents, and trust dodgy single guys living in vans is quite confusing to me.

BIB - because of the technical way in which inquiries are conducted.

Police usually proceed on something called "theory of the case". The general idea is that if you investigate the correct theory, you will find corroborating evidence whereas incorrect theories will remain fallow.

So in this case it would appear the police (correctly) adopted 3 theories.

1. Abductor.
2. Wandering
3. Parents.

Theories 2 and 3 are statistically likely. 1 less so. Theory 2 was swiftly eliminated. Contrary to popular belief PJ did not "ignore all other evidence" but actually focussed on theory 1 because they had evidence for it. This lead quickly to the false arrest of Murat.

Facing an impasse, an english expert called Mark Harrison was called in. He conducts a complete review supported by PJ and Scotland Yard.

It is in fact Harrison who refocusses the theory on 3 factors. First Maddie is most likely dead. Second the body is likely concealed in the general area. Third, the guilty party may be in the close group (statistically)

It is Harrison who bought in the cadaver dogs, and these produced evidence pointing to the parents.

So how the PJ investigation ended up where it did is not really a mystery - they followed where the evidence led.

Police don't have the resources to trawl through hundreds of potential suspects in detail to find the guilty party.

 

[Officer Dibble]

He may have gone in through the door and left through the window. There wasn't much time between the time the friend of the family checked on the kids and Kate McCann checked in and found her missing. Maybe the suspect heard her coming and went out the window. Jmo

its a long drop. You'd need someone to pass the child down....although Gerry's missing blue bag? eek.

 

[Owlpellet]

What I found really interesting was the smiths described the man as being Gerry McCann at one point, they said they recognised him as he got off the plane carrying the twins, and they were almost certain it was Gerry they saw carrying the child the night of madeleines dissapearance...now we know Gerry was at the tapas bar. But Amaral said in a interview that this new German suspect looks a lot like Gerry also. Personally I don’t see the resemblance but ... seems strange how both of them said the same thing. Gives more weight to the original smiths sighting I think?

“... various members of the Smith family later claimed the man carrying the girl looked similar to her father, Gerry McCann”

'Smiths walked past culprit': New key to Madeleine McCann mystery

DBM

 

[Officer Dibble]

An Irish family who were on holiday at the same apartment as the McCanns may hold the key to finding out what really happened to Madeleine, according to a Channel Nine investigative podcast.

Labelled "The Smith Sighting", Martin Smith and his large extended family were walking back to their accommodation around 10pm in Praia da Luz the night Madeleine disappeared.

According to the Channel Nine investigation, the Smiths crossed paths with a man who was carrying a small motionless girl down a dark street around the same time Madeleine disappeared.

The alleged sighting occurred less than 300m from the Ocean Club Resort and the man was heading towards the beach just 150m away.

'Smiths walked past culprit': New key to Madeleine McCann mystery

im really starting to think it was actually CB who the smiths saw around 10pm. heading towards the beach, carrying a little girl "motionless" was she sleeping? or was she already dead at that point?
wasn't it reported his apartment was along the beach path or something? but then where does the car come into it, what reason would he have to re register the jag in Germany if he didn't even use the car?

Drugged. I'd say she was drugged. The way she was being carried was not someone familiar with how to carry a child.

 

[Officer Dibble]

If it’s this guy, he has form for scaling walls and entering via windows.

I was once burgled on holiday by someone scaling a tall wall like spiderman.

 

[Kikixxxx]

So, the guy was in the same town. On the SAME day that McCann disappeared. He picked up a child from the SAME daycare.

He is a *******, that is obvious. And someone said he "said" something disturbing.

I am not actually seeing any smoking gun evidence here. Am I wrong?

we aren’t privy to any actual evidence the police have at this stage, which isn’t uncommon. I’d like to think the police have more on him if 3 police forces in Europe have decided to go public with this. They know this is one of the biggest unsolved mysteries in recent history, I’m sure they fully expected the press to go off on one. If they didn’t have anything on him apart from a few coincidences it would be very irresponsible to do that. IMO.

 

[Kikixxxx]

Drugged. I'd say she was drugged. The way she was being carried was not someone familiar with how to carry a child.

I’ve forgot how she was being carried, can you remind me?

 

[Andreee]

What I found really interesting was the smiths described the man as being Gerry McCann at one point, they said they recognised him as he got off the plane carrying the twins, and they were almost certain it was Gerry they saw carrying the child the night of madeleines dissapearance...now we know Gerry was at the tapas bar. But Amaral said in a interview that this new German suspect looks a lot like Gerry also. Personally I don’t see the resemblance but ... seems strange how both of them said the same thing. Gives more weight to the original smiths sighting I think?

“... various members of the Smith family later claimed the man carrying the girl looked similar to her father, Gerry McCann”

'Smiths walked past culprit': New key to Madeleine McCann mystery

I don't see a resemblance either, but it was dark out, so who knows!

 

[Officer Dibble]

I’ve forgot how she was being carried, can you remind me?

if you held both your arms out in front of you, your arms become a table and the child is draped across the table so to speak. The knees of the child would be dangling off one of your arms and the neck or shoulders would be balanced on the other arm. Its late and I cant think how to describe. Does it make sense?

 

[Officer Dibble]

I don't see a resemblance either, but it was dark out, so who knows!

I've got a feeling it wasn't dark though in the back of my mind. Street lights good?

 

[MsBetsy]

This has been discussed.

In 2007, he had a 1994 juvenile record in Germany for child abuse, my speculation is that juvenile record might not have been available to police doing a general search of his record in 2007, but that is perhaps incorrect. I don't know the laws in Germany regarding juvenile criminal records. In some countries they are expunged after a certain time period.

No one knew about his changing the registration on his vehicle until he was put under intense investigation beginning in 2017. All the information we know now was unknown to police at the time.

As speculated above, he may have had an alibi for the evening of MM's abduction, and that's possibly why he was never seriously investigated.

He was known to be a thief, he'd been in jail in Portugal the previous year. IMO he might have had an outstanding record for burglary in 1996 in Germany, since he'd skipped town rather than serve his sentence. He was homeless, living out of a van, with a questionable work record. How he made his living would be a reasonable question to ask, to begin with.

It does seem quite interesting to me, that the two doctor parents of the girl would be prime suspects, when there was at least one dodgy guy like this one living in the area. Why anyone would distrust a group of doctor/parents, and trust dodgy single guys living in vans is quite confusing to me.

ETA, I added his burglary conviction in Germany in 1996

Yes, the local police focused on the family and all of their friends in the beginning. They made so many mistakes in this case.

I think it wasn't until the British investigators opened up an investigation that they looked into all the phone calls made that evening, and in 2013, released images of the man Smith saw carrying a child towards the beach.

I read that in 2017 detectives pursued leads that were significant but I don't remember what they were.

Does anybody remember where they found the DNA that belonged to a stranger or what type it was?

Imo

 

[Kikixxxx]

I was once burgled on holiday by someone scaling a tall wall like spiderman.

That is very creepy. I won’t sleep tonight now. Thanks

 

[MsBetsy]

Window detail.

"The window is only absolute maximum 50cm wide, in reality about 46cm wide, and it's already a metre off the ground," he said on the podcast titled Maddie.

Where was that information from?

 

[Satchie]

i think Kate staged the window but Gerry later had to abandon it as the point of ingress.

I don't know all the backstory to this, but, really, why would the mother necessarily have staged the window? Isn't it entirely plausible that the abductor came in or out that way? Especially if the abductor was an experienced burglar?

For one thing, it's the closest access to the child, so it's the quickest and surest for snatch and get out, it would take only seconds. It doesn't involve crossing any rooms and potentially being seen if someone is unexpectedly in the apartment. It guarantees you won't run into someone coming in one of the doors. It guarantees someone won't realize anything is wrong until they come into the bedroom. If someone comes in the room and notices the window open, they themselves are unlikely to be able to follow you out the window. They have to take the time to go around and out the door, and by then you're long gone.

 

[MsBetsy]

its a long drop. You'd need someone to pass the child down....although Gerry's missing blue bag? eek.

Do you remember the height of the window to the ground? It's been so long I forgot all the details.

 

[MsBetsy]

if you held both your arms out in front of you, your arms become a table and the child is draped across the table so to speak. The knees of the child would be dangling off one of your arms and the neck or shoulders would be balanced on the other arm. Its late and I cant think how to describe. Does it make sense?

It sounds right to me. At least that's the way it looks in the drawing.

 

[katydid23]

Yes you could be right.

For a paedophile who prefers children to rape a 72 year old is unheard of. Their attraction is limited to children. So did he make the video of rape of elderly woman to order.

That's not always true. Many of the sickest predators will take any opportunity, no matter age or gender. They like the power and control aspect, not necessarily the age or gender.

ETA: here is an example of a predator who killed grown men and young girls
Death of Maëlys de Araujo - Wikipedia

 

[mrjitty]

if you held both your arms out in front of you, your arms become a table and the child is draped across the table so to speak. The knees of the child would be dangling off one of your arms and the neck or shoulders would be balanced on the other arm. Its late and I cant think how to describe. Does it make sense?

That was Tannerman

I think Smith was more conventional over the shoulder

 

[Owlpellet]

if you held both your arms out in front of you, your arms become a table and the child is draped across the table so to speak. The knees of the child would be dangling off one of your arms and the neck or shoulders would be balanced on the other arm. Its late and I cant think how to describe. Does it make sense?

Wasn't that the way the child was being carried in the Tannerman sighting that was explained away? I thought in the Smith sighting the child was being carried upright with head resting on shoulder and the Smiths said something about seeing Gerry carry one of the twins the same way?

 

[Satchie]

Do you remember the height of the window to the ground? It's been so long I forgot all the details.

Here's a video of someone opening it from the outside, apparently. Yes, it's a smaller
window, but not high off the ground. Many criminals enter houses through smaller windows than that: bathroom windows, kitchen windows, basement windows etc. People are careless about them because they are small. But for an experience burglar, it's no problem. They're flexible, they go in sideways.

What I'd be curious about is, had burglars entered similar windows in the area?