Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #37

[Denis R Tandib]

100% - the second chamber of the court affirmed that there is strong suspicion. IMO an argument that can’t be made is that jurisdictional technicalities are somehow a reflection of weak evidence. Evidently it’s much too contrary. IMO Everything is in place for what will be 5 easy convictions. I’m not surprised FF is trying slow everything down. IMO he certainly doesn’t want to be up against Braunschweig. Maybe they’re notorious for being incredibly difficult to beat.

I don’t think anyone made that claim. Whatever the reason, the charges have been thrown out and we don’t know if they will be reinstated. That’s a the situation.

 

[RichardKimble]

100% - the second chamber of the court affirmed that there is strong suspicion. IMO an argument that can’t be made is that jurisdictional technicalities are somehow a reflection of weak evidence. Evidently it’s much too contrary. IMO Everything is in place for what will be 5 easy convictions. I’m not surprised FF is trying slow everything down. IMO he certainly doesn’t want to be up against Braunschweig. Maybe they’re notorious for being incredibly difficult to beat.,

The weight of evidence will carry a case, for now CB'S legal team have stalled or even had the charges dropped, that's suggestive imo that perhaps the Braunschweig aren't so mighty, they didn't see a mere techincality of domicile as a road block? I'm probably way off but I just see something else going on, but the fullness of time will reveal.

 

[SuperdadV8]

"Search for clues in Portugal unsuccessful?

It is a report that would destroy any new hope: According to the British "Sun", the previous investigation of the materials seized at the Portuguese lake should not have revealed any new clues in the Maddie case. If true, it would be a huge setback for investigators.

But the responsible public prosecutor's office in Braunschweig denied: "As usual, the "Sun" speculates happily due to a lack of information," explains a spokesman when asked by RTL. Official search results are not yet available."

Bericht: Spurensuche am See wohl erfolglos - Nächster Rückschlag im Fall Maddie McCann?

Drei Tage intensive Sucharbeiten in Portugal, zahlreiche Proben und sichergestellte Gegenstände: Doch angeblich war der Aufwand der deutschen Ermittler umsonst.

www.rtl.de

 

[RichardKimble]

We know the Sun is unreliable that's why it's not recognised as an approved source on here, but other papers followed quoting it so who knows, but when the digs in 2014 produced nothing ,nothing official was said it just leaked out through sources, so who knows, why would the BKA announce what or what they didn't find.

 

[frank-cole]

The weight of evidence will carry a case, for now CB'S legal team have stalled or even had the charges dropped, that's suggestive imo that perhaps the Braunschweig aren't so mighty, they didn't see a mere techincality of domicile as a road block? I'm probably way off but I just see something else going on, but the fullness of time will reveal.

Well put. IMO it’s probably because they’re a strong prosecution & they’ve amounted airtight cases. The timing of the technicality speaks volumes IMO. FF loves a technicality & could have played that card years before the evidence files were passed over. JMO

 

[Davieson]

Well put. IMO it’s probably because they’re a strong prosecution & they’ve amounted airtight cases. The timing of the technicality speaks volumes IMO. FF loves a technicality & could have played that card years before the evidence files were passed over. JMO

I don't suppose FF could have launched a jurisdiction claim before charges were forthcoming

 

[mrjitty]

Well put. IMO it’s probably because they’re a strong prosecution & they’ve amounted airtight cases. The timing of the technicality speaks volumes IMO. FF loves a technicality & could have played that card years before the evidence files were passed over. JMO

No he couldn't.

He could not challenge the jurisdiction until the charges were laid. Then the Court threw out the charges. That is how jurisdictional challenges work.

 

[Mex]

RSBM

I think the DM rape will be used as evidence going to prove guilt in the HB case, due to high similarity/signature style of the attack.

The argument on the thread is I think that because the criminal can and did on one occasion his guilt on another separate offense does not necessarily follow.

The evidence which convicted him first time around means nothing in any other rape he may be charged with. Each case stands alone and requires to be proved only on the evidence presented which is pertinent to that case.

For example the information that HB came forward as a result of becoming aware of details of the DM rape will have to be handled in a way which is non prejudicial to CB having a fair trial regarding only the case he is pleading and no other.
My opinion

 

[mrjitty]

I don't suppose FF could have launched a jurisdiction claim before charges were forthcoming

Correct.

And it appears that he did tell Braunschweig beforehand that he disputed jurisdiction. It was Braunschweig's decision to assert jurisdiction and now they have to appeal the court of first instance decision.

 

[Mex]

Exactly, no investigation looked at him as suspicious .

That might well be looked at as a failure of intelligence gathering on behalf of the original investigation.

Why was CB on police radar in 2007 but apparently not in 2013 when SY started investigating?

 

[mrjitty]

The argument on the thread is I think that because the criminal can and did on one occasion his guilt on another separate offense does not necessarily follow.

The evidence which convicted him first time around means nothing in any other rape he may be charged with. Each case stands alone and requires to be proved only on the evidence presented which is pertinent to that case.

For example the information that HB came forward as a result of becoming aware of details of the DM rape will have to be handled in a way which is non prejudicial to CB having a fair trial regarding only the case he is pleading and no other.
My opinion

Right but if you misspend a year of your life doing Crimes 200 and Evidence 300 you learn that there are exceptions to the rule against similar fact evidence.

One of the exceptions is where there is a strong similarity so that the probative value outweighs prejudicial effect.

The recent Libby Squire murder trial is a good example. The prosecution was allowed to introduce evidence of his prior sexual offences where the killer argued he was parked in his car late at night for innocent reasons. The prior offences documented an established history of lurking those neighbourhoods for the purpose of sex offences.

In the present case, it is likely, IMO that the Judges will take note of remarkably similar MO between DM and HB offences. factors beyond mere break in and rape. e.g style of dress, extended duration of attack, mode of assault, video taping etc

Taken all together, they support the idea that the offender is the same person in both cases.

 

[Mex]

By when do posters think HCW will realistically need to show progress on the case before it gets wound down?

End of this year?
After 4 years of going public?
End of next year?

In accord with any other police investigation - when there is no longer any more evidence available to continue investigating.

 

[Mex]

Maybe it's only HCW's regular media encounters that's hiding the truth the CB-MM investigation is already on a level similar to Op Grange? Maybe that's why he talks to the various media so much? If the jurisdiction issue is sorted on the other charges and that trial goes ahead (or trials) and convictions are secured, maybe we'll hear a lot less from our favourite spokesperson after that.

I think HCW speaks to the media when he has something to say.

 

[RichardKimble]

That might well be looked at as a failure of intelligence gathering on behalf of the original investigation.

Why was CB on police radar in 2007 but apparently not in 2013 when SY started investigating?

Why when the Germans invited CB for an interview in 2013 did they not investigate him?

 

[Mex]

OG gets special funding though otherwise it would have been closed down years ago.
Where is the German funding coming from? One would imagine that they aren't going to throw money at the investigation indefinitely.

I don't think the German constitution allows the forces of law and order to ignore criminality when it comes to light until it is fully investigated. Nor have I seen anyone begrudging money spent.

In Britain the cost of the MM investigation has always been a major issue for some; particularly even when the parents were having to fund raise for private detectives to keep the investigation open.

Quite extraordinary in my opinion.

 

[Mex]

I don't think the 5 other cases have much to do with the MM case now.

If the prosecution gets back on track, then they will be resourced for the trial.

The MM investigation uses both BKA and prosecutor resources - I think they will need to show some progress, otherwise they will get downscaled - maybe as soon as the next financial year.

Not one of the other five have any relevance to the MM case. They are independent of each other with the only common denominator being that the same suspect has been indicted for all of them.
My opinion

 

[Mex]

Don’t you think he wasn’t released because there is an active investigation into him for other crimes? Imagine if they did parole him with all the current media attention - no one would seriously take that risk. IMO, it’s this, not his record that prevented him being paroled.

Is CB eligible for parole having been turned down when he was? Once his present term in jail has been served he will be released and that will be fairly soon.
Perhaps that is why FF is playing for time.

CB was not paroled because he presented a danger to the public as a flight risk.
My opinion

 

[Niner]

@Mex - I have his release date in 2026 - but no month or day.

Correct.

And it appears that he did tell Braunschweig beforehand that he disputed jurisdiction. It was Braunschweig's decision to assert jurisdiction and now they have to appeal the court of first instance decision.

So - they are still deciding whether this case (5 of them) will be tried somewhere else or not. Surely it doesn't take this long to decide?

 

[Mex]

Right but if you misspend a year of your life doing Crimes 200 and Evidence 300 you learn that there are exceptions to the rule against similar fact evidence.

One of the exceptions is where there is a strong similarity so that the probative value outweighs prejudicial effect.

The recent Libby Squire murder trial is a good example. The prosecution was allowed to introduce evidence of his prior sexual offences where the killer argued he was parked in his car late at night for innocent reasons. The prior offences documented an established history of lurking those neighbourhoods for the purpose of sex offences.

In the present case, it is likely, IMO that the Judges will take note of remarkably similar MO between DM and HB offences. factors beyond mere break in and rape. e.g style of dress, extended duration of attack, mode of assault, video taping etc

Taken all together, they support the idea that the offender is the same person in both cases.

If I were presented with vicious three rapes which had been perpetrated in almost identical ways I would go for that. But I still think lumping all three together would be prejudicial.

 

[Lyall0814]

I think HCW speaks to the media when he has something to say.

"I don't want to deny it" would be his reply to that assertion I think