Malaysia airlines plane may have crashed 239 people on board #19

[CARIIS]

This is good news! Can you do some playing around with fuel stuff I think everyone has been going off of the typical loading from MAL to China - which the facts just dont support. If we takeoff to uturn transcerse the country of MAL and then go for another 6 hours we have FAR exceeded what would have been loaded for a MAL - China segment plus diversion requirements.

If you can make sense out of the below then I though awesome can you fill the jet to the brim for us !! and tell us how much further out than all the stuff they have been playing with . Obviously there was more fuel on the plane- just with what they are telling us it should have suppossedly "crashed" a lot earlier due to fuel exhaustion!!

I'm still enthralled with this guy's work.

Did we know that the pings weren't on the hour?!

Check out this post of his:
http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/397
Positions and Velocities of Inmarsat-3F1
During the Flight of MH370
Duncan Steel, 2014 March 26.

This is the graphic given by the Malaysians (which must have used Inmarsat's data):
http://www.duncansteel.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/10155041_740971712614511_1614955617_n.png

(^^^I can't make that not blow the margins without having online storage for forum photos, so I also made it an attachment. I just have the url.)



"The times read off the above plot are as follows (all UTC):

2014/03/07 16:30:00.000

2014/03/07 16:43:00.000

2014/03/07 16:55:00.000

2014/03/07 17:07:00.000

2014/03/07 18:25:00.000

2014/03/07 18:27:00.000

2014/03/07 18:29:00.000

2014/03/07 19:40:00.000

2014/03/07 20:40:00.000

2014/03/07 21:40:00.000

2014/03/07 22:40:00.000

2014/03/08 00:11:00.000"

I'll translate UTC to times we are more familiar with in this case here in a bit.

He does all sorts of other stuff that you should read, but for now I'm fascinated at when the pings really were!

 

[Brightbird]

Do we even know if they gave the Chinese or the families a Chinese-translated version of the transcript? I have not heard of this before, that's why I'm asking. I never heard of any Chinese-translated one given to anyone.

The first I heard of a transcript is when the Telegraph reported it.

Yes, you're right that the ultimate blame does not lie with the Malaysians. It lies with the Telegraph. IMO they did some type of misleading, b/c IIRC they never gave source of where they got the transcript from, and they never said if it was tranlslated from some other language or what translations the transcript went through before reaching the Telegraph.

I have not compared the two word-for-word, however in the Telegraph version, there is completely different vernacular and there are few technical terms. I understood every word of Telegraph one, however I had hard time keeping up with the official version b/c of all the aviation lingo.

Yes, that could because it was originally translated to some language like Chinese, and they made an "easy to understand" version for the layperson.

However, then the Telegraph should have know about that and shoudl have included it in their report.

But then also is the fact that this "all right, good night" circulated in the news for weeks, and the Malaysian officials never once said, oh that is actually not technically correct version, and let us give you the real version so that we can put to rest any rumors that are getting started, because we don't want misinformation to spread. Or something like that.

IDK, it just seems odd to me.

JMO.

If you look right down at the bottom of the first Telegraph transcript, it says it was translated from English to Mandarin and back to English.

 

[writer7]

This is good news! Can you do some playing around with fuel stuff I think everyone has been going off of the typical loading from MAL to China - which the facts just dont support. If we takeoff to uturn transcerse the country of MAL and then go for another 6 hours we have FAR exceeded what would have been loaded for a MAL - China segment plus diversion requirements.

If you can make sense out of the below then I though awesome can you fill the jet to the brim for us !! and tell us how much further out than all the stuff they have been playing with . Obviously there was more fuel on the plane- just with what they are telling us it should have suppossedly "crashed" a lot earlier due to fuel exhaustion!!

Unfortunately, I just understand it when folks lay it out all well-thought-out already, with no math errors and such. I can't say the same for my work in math outside my field! But I have a lifetime of my dad explaining the math of science stuff to me where I can trust he's right, so I understand it that well but no more

The altitude problem makes me not know how to do the math calculations, too. I don't see where folks are getting the altitudes, other than assumptions (which you have to do in modelling kind of math). But I don't know anything about aviation, so my assumptions on that would suck

 

[Soulmagent]

Heard something about this a while ago - playing around with the earthquake and hit this and and course I must share with you all.

Also thanx to WS someone here turned me on to SKY news and the play news internet deal - love it !

The University of Science and Technology of China has announced a possible location for the crash site of Malaysia Airlines flight MH 370 based on two seismic recordings (stations *advertiser censored* and IPM of the Malaysia National Seismic Network; see map). The proposed site is in the Gulf of Thailand (orange hexagon on map).
The time of the event reported by the Chinese was 2:55 AM (on 3/8/2014, which equates to 18:55 UTC time on 3/7/2014).
U.S. Geological Survey analysts at the National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colo., reviewed this analysis and have a different conclusion.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usc000nb9b?#summary

Do you remember right after they reported that dotr posted this
[ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10333559&postcount=528"]http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10333559&postcount=528[/ame]

Then I copied and pasted this quote .

[ame="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10333722&postcount=571"]http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10333722&postcount=571[/ame]

 

[writer7]

bbm

Thanks for this information.

What stands out to me most is the bolded - no apparent activity during all that time. Plane flying on autopilot, IMO. No turns and altitude changes and such like there was at and before the 2:29 ping.

JMO.

That's an interesting thought! I bet you are right. The 8:11 ping would mean something 'new' going on again, then, too, imho. Then that partial handshake was so soon after. I bet the crash was around 8:11 to 8:15 or so

 

[CARIIS]

Can you "translate " what this stuff is saying??

bbm

Thanks for this information.

What stands out to me most is the bolded - no apparent activity during all that time. Plane flying on autopilot, IMO. No turns and altitude changes and such like there was at and before the 2:29 ping.

JMO.

 

[Momoffourboys]

Are they all out searching these past two days, just not seeing anything?

Yes. New Sheriff in town.

Retired Australian air chief marshal Angus Houston, who is heading a new coordination centre in Perth, said it was the most challenging search and rescue operation he had ever seen and cautioned against expectations of quick success.


http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/ca...-warns-of-lengthy-difficult-search-for-mh370/

 

[BlueberryBird]

I think they're too far south and east. I wish they would go north and search between lower Indonesia and Australia, to the right of the arc line. (Wish I could map it.)

I also wonder if they searched the Diamantina trench. Perhaps the plane was ditched there on purpose, thinking since it was in the opposite direction of the original flight plan to BJ, no one would think to look, and down in the deep darkness of that trench, it would never be found.

This is the best overall graphic I could find with a quick search: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=33209

It's a Virgin Oceanic schematic showng depths of ocean exploration. I tried to find some sort of scale map showing some of these ocean features, but didn't turn anything up. I can try tomorrow, or grab an image I've drawn to use for my earth science classes. The thing is, trenches and ridges are very large scale features--think vast mountains and large topographic changes over an extensive area. Now imaging searching such a region in a tiny bubble, in the dark, with no maps, and with a limited view field!

Deep sea exploration is incredibly expensive, very technologically advanced, still pretty limited, and it can take so long to get down to the necessary depths that actual exploration time at the bottom is sadly pretty short.

This just isn't an area anybody can go search. This is why we know more about the surface of the moon, even still! We can whiz by the moon with space probes and gather reams of data cheaply compared to similar data compilation of the deepest parts of the ocean. The technology needed to do deep sea exploration is every bit or more expensive, demanding, and cutting edge as anything NASA has in the works.

(I'm a science teacher with a geochemistry background)

 

[CARIIS]

just so unreal no

certainly does not bode well for the future if some big calamity happens none of these people (our leaders!) have a clue about ANYTHING

Do you remember right after they reported that dotr posted this
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10333559&postcount=528

Then I copied and pasted this quote .

http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10333722&postcount=571

 

[ilovepierre]

That's an interesting thought! I bet you are right. The 8:11 ping would mean something 'new' going on again, then, too, imho. Then that partial handshake was so soon after. I bet the crash was around 8:11 to 8:15 or so

BBM.
That's my thoughts too

 

[CARIIS]

Me too, however I have no darn clue why I think that !!!!!! I just remember when they switched it it "felt" wrong -- well it felt COVERUP- sorry!

And how come from the very beginning there has been NO land looking. Ever. Ever. In the first 36 hours who how why did everyone automaically go for water??

 

[BlueberryBird]

I noticed there is a documentary on ABC Iview right now (Australia) called Garbage Island.

http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/garbage-island/ZX9681A001S00
"The North Pacific Gyre is a collecting point for all of the ocean's flotsam and home of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch: a mythical, Texas-sized island made entirely of our trash"


Am going to watch it later. Will be available to watch til 28th April.
Iview programmes are only viewable to Australia but its also on youtube in 3 parts.

I had no idea the oceans were so full of rubbish :notgood:

Charles Moore wrote an excellent book called Plastic Ocean about this topic. He also has several excellent TedTalks. Actually, I recommend the oceanography talks for anybody wanting more info on ocean exploration. Gallo has a good overview talk.

I show Moore's garbage patch talk to my students and they are always stunned. The worst part is that there is no feasible way to clean any of this up.

 

[alioop]

So now Malaysia wants to call this a criminal act. Do any legal eagles here know if this would affect how much they'd have to pay victims families?

Under the Montreal International Convention, Malaysian Airlines is strictly liable ( which means they can't argue against it and the only proof needed is the person was on the plane) for the payment of approx US $175,000 to the families or the executor or equivalent of the persons estate) of each passenger on MH670. They (actually their insurers) have already made some payments towards this amount.

From there it is up to the families as to what they do if they want more compensation. From then on there is no strict liability situation rather they have to prove negligence on someone's part as the basis for a claim. The most obvious companies to sue would be the owner and operator of the plane being Malaysian Airlines and the manufacturer Boeing. However proving negligence is difficult until a cause of the crash is determined. Boeing would be saying, hey it looks like our plane unlikely suffered a catastrophic fault as we know it kept flying for hours after it lost contact and likely crashed into the Ocean only when it ran out of fuel.

So in answer to your question about it possibly being a criminal act, this would be what Boeings insurers would like to be the case as it is not negligence on their part. The focus then turns to the airline and looks at their possible negligence resulting in the criminal act whether it be by one of their employees or a passenger hijacker.
But until there are some answers, it makes litigation very difficult. But what will happen is that claims will be lodged in various countries and they will move slowly pending investigation results. Another reason why insurers pay out straight away for search expenses to find the black boxes to get definitive answers.

 

[Soulmagent]

just so unreal no

certainly does not bode well for the future if some big calamity happens none of these people (our leaders!) have a clue about ANYTHING

I just wanted to point out at that time the USGS website was not working ,I wanted to check out the reported data and it was not there to look at.

Not that it is important,just thought it was odd.

 

[highflyer]

This was discussed in great detail already, has it not?
There was nothing suspicious about either person on the manifest(s).
The one passenger was a stunt guy (Chinese manifest), and the other was that guy who had the same name/almost identical name to the Uigher professor (Malaysian manifest).

With things changing over and over again how can anything not be suspect?

 

[Brightbird]

This is good news! Can you do some playing around with fuel stuff I think everyone has been going off of the typical loading from MAL to China - which the facts just dont support. If we takeoff to uturn transcerse the country of MAL and then go for another 6 hours we have FAR exceeded what would have been loaded for a MAL - China segment plus diversion requirements.

If you can make sense out of the below then I though awesome can you fill the jet to the brim for us !! and tell us how much further out than all the stuff they have been playing with . Obviously there was more fuel on the plane- just with what they are telling us it should have suppossedly "crashed" a lot earlier due to fuel exhaustion!!

I disagree that the plane had to be carrying extra fuel than needed for the flight to Beijing. From KL to Beijing is a 6 hour flight and there would have been reserve fuel. Hulamom explained in thread 18 that -

"As far as fuel requirements, they would have been legally required to carry: fuel to destination, fuel to a (preselected) suitable alternate airport near destination plus a reserve of 30 minutes at a minimum."

The last satellite ping was at 8:19am. Let's say the plane ran out of fuel at 8:30am. That's 8 hours flying time, only an extra 2 hours which could likely be explained as the required amount of reserve it was carrying. IMO.

 

[Soulmagent]

Link ? TIA

ETA : I will take a moment to search thread to find ...as I see has been referred to.

Sent from my SCH-S720C using Tapatalk 2

Around post 480 ish.

 

[CARIIS]

This wasAir France, while their world was falling apart the plane was sending back in real time what failures (100's) the plane was expericing throughout the whole fall to the ocean. tHis is the part of ACARS that was killled by someone on MAl

The pings are from the part of ACARS that is in the elec bay below:

http://www.flight.org/blog/2009/06/07/air-france-flight-447-unofficial-acars/

 

[Amee]

April 2nd 2pm

THE investigation into the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 has been classified as a criminal investigation, according to reports in the Wall Street Journal citing Malaysia’s police chief.

As the search for the missing Boeing 777-200ER continues into its 25th day, a series of updates linked to the newspaper’s Twitter feed quoted police chief Khalid Abu Bakar as saying police had taken more than 170 statements for the ongoing probe, and would interview more people

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/...ail&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=engagement

 

[CARIIS]

Its 2700 miles Mal to China closest diversion is about 30 miles away plus another 30 reserve

That would not have requied fill up!

The closest major airport to Beijing Capital International Airport is Beijing Nanyuan Airport (NAY / ZBNY). This airport is in Beijing, China and is 48 km from PEK

http://www.travelmath.com/nearest-airport/PEK
https://www.google.com/#q=airports+ner+bejjing+map+

I disagree that the plane had to be carrying extra fuel than needed for the flight to Beijing. From KL to Beijing is a 6 hour flight and there would have been reserve fuel. Hulamom explained in thread 18 that

-

"As far as fuel requirements, they would have been legally required to carry: fuel to destination, fuel to a (preselected) suitable alternate airport near destination plus a reserve of 30 minutes at a minimum."

The last satellite ping was at 8:19am. Let's say the plane ran out of fuel at 8:30am. That's 8 hours flying time, only an extra 2 hours which could likely be explained as the required amount of reserve it was carrying. IMO.