Malaysia airlines plane may have crashed 239 people on board #20

[writer7]

Good afternoon! I skimmed the pages so that I can keep up currently while having something to read later. The space scientist from NASA, Duncan Steel, has a new analysis on his blog and it's fascinating as usual. I'm going to post a bit of that in a while. ( http://www.duncansteel.com/ )

But he starts off with a bit of a rant that I think is very warranted. The lack of transparency in the data from Inmarsat and the British investigative team is hampering the ability to get the best answers (my wording, not his). He was correct about the wobble of the satellite needing to be included, and that is why they moved the search area 700 miles after all! He posted that while they were still searching in the wrong spot. Inmarsat did goof

I can tell a related little story (with few details) that a little Top Secret birdy told me a few times. It's probably publicly known by now, because it happened so very long ago. Back when they were still using early computers and coming up with nuclear weapons technology, they had an important math problem that would take very long to do with their current technology. So they (the US) hired 500-1000 civilian bookkeepers to work on various steps of the problem. They used statistics to decide that the best answers were probably right, and then they moved on to the next step the same way.

In other words, they didn't just use their regular one small (relatively speaking) team to try to do all the crunching. And they didn't wait the weeks the computer would have taken to spit out the answer. They crowd-sourced, basically.

That's what Steel suggests, and I totally agree. Here he is, a NASA scientist, wanting to work on the problem and he's not even paid or anything. There are tons of knowledgeable people out there like him, yet Inmarsat has data that very few people get to see

They say they've refined the analyses again, and that's good, but I bet the analysis would be even better/quicker if they did what those early nuclear teams did way back when. Statistics and basic vetting (you want someone who can do the math) will tell which the best answers are. It's just sad. I know they are brilliant and special, but they still goofed! Get all the great minds on it, darnit!

 

[time]

Good afternoon! I skimmed the pages so that I can keep up currently while having something to read later. The space scientist from NASA, Duncan Steel, has a new analysis on his blog and it's fascinating as usual. I'm going to post a bit of that in a while. ( http://www.duncansteel.com/ )

But he starts off with a bit of a rant that I think is very warranted. The lack of transparency in the data from Inmarsat and the British investigative team is hampering the ability to get the best answers (my wording, not his). He was correct about the wobble of the satellite needing to be included, and that is why they moved the search area 700 miles after all! He posted that while they were still searching in the wrong spot. Inmarsat did goof <snipped for space>

Really disheartening that so much time and money was lost because of this insular attitude. I am just very impressed with Mr. Steel. I wonder why MSM hasn't interviewed him ... or have I missed it?

 

[21merc7]

To be honest, any flight that crashes is just as insular. It it BIG business.

I know Malay came off sounding funny to us, but it really is not just about them. Others with more at stake make it an encapsulated issue. Not simply the purchaser of the plane, if you get where that is going. It is big money, world wide.

Think "Titanic is unsinkable" transfer to makers and hype behind billions or more - with power too.

 

[MummaP]

Good afternoon! I skimmed the pages so that I can keep up currently while having something to read later. The space scientist from NASA, Duncan Steel, has a new analysis on his blog and it's fascinating as usual. I'm going to post a bit of that in a while. ( http://www.duncansteel.com/ )

But he starts off with a bit of a rant that I think is very warranted. The lack of transparency in the data from Inmarsat and the British investigative team is hampering the ability to get the best answers (my wording, not his). He was correct about the wobble of the satellite needing to be included, and that is why they moved the search area 700 miles after all! He posted that while they were still searching in the wrong spot. Inmarsat did goof

I can tell a related little story (with few details) that a little Top Secret birdy told me a few times. It's probably publicly known by now, because it happened so very long ago. Back when they were still using early computers and coming up with nuclear weapons technology, they had an important math problem that would take very long to do with their current technology. So they (the US) hired 500-1000 civilian bookkeepers to work on various steps of the problem. They used statistics to decide that the best answers were probably right, and then they moved on to the next step the same way.

In other words, they didn't just use their regular one small (relatively speaking) team to try to do all the crunching. And they didn't wait the weeks the computer would have taken to spit out the answer. They crowd-sourced, basically.

That's what Steel suggests, and I totally agree. Here he is, a NASA scientist, wanting to work on the problem and he's not even paid or anything. There are tons of knowledgeable people out there like him, yet Inmarsat has data that very few people get to see

They say they've refined the analyses again, and that's good, but I bet the analysis would be even better/quicker if they did what those early nuclear teams did way back when. Statistics and basic vetting (you want someone who can do the math) will tell which the best answers are. It's just sad. I know they are brilliant and special, but they still goofed! Get all the great minds on it, darnit!

Just reading through some of his posts - what an awesome dude he is... I know very little about physics, (i'm a nurse, and the human body workings excite me in the same way!) but from his easy reading posts, i can now say i understand the ping data, and how the corridors were "worked out"

I'm still of the opinion that the northern corridor has been overlooked & wonder when someone will say "know what, lets have a quick scoot round, won't do any harm..."

I think thats when it'll all become "interesting"...

 

[Amee]

Joint Agency Coordination Centre

Media Release
4 April 2014

The Royal Australian Navy and Royal Navy have today commenced a sub-surface search for emissions from the black-box pinger from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.

Using the Towed Pinger Locator (TPL) from the United States Navy on Australian Defence Vessel Ocean Shield and a similar capability on HMS Echo, the two ships will search a single 240 kilometre track, converging on each other.

http://www.jacc.gov.au/media/releases/2014/april/mr007.aspx

Search update

Media Release
4 April 2014&#8212;pm

Today there have been some sightings of objects reported by ships in the search area but none were associated with MH370 (as at 1900 AEDT).

 

[PrairieWind]

But it was coming in from basically the ocean and officially Vietnamese airspace at that point. Further though, I don't understand why a plane that is on a flight path, even if a known one, is not flagged if it isn't supposed to be there. And, it seems to me they are basically claiming they knew it was unusual, just not a threat?! It also seems it would spur some immediate response to alert the govt and the airline officials/control tower/whatever.

My guess is that there simply was no one actually monitoring the military radar. It was on, but no one was paying attention. Malaysia doesn't want to admit that their military air defense personnel were so incompetent. They were able to go back and look at the radar tapes to see the plane, but didn't until the next day or two.

 

[time]

My guess is that there simply was no one actually monitoring the military radar. It was on, but no one was paying attention. Malaysia doesn't want to admit that their military air defense personnel were so incompetent. They were able to go back and look at the radar tapes to see the plane, but didn't until the next day or two.

Bingo... that was my very first impression and as time goes on it is still my impression of the whole thing.

But there is also this where it sounds like it is claimed the plane had not been sighted by the Marconi radar system ...

Anwar said he had authorised the installation of one of the most sophisticated radar systems in the world near the South China Sea, which covered the peninsula&#8217;s east and west coastlines.

He added that it was &#8220;not only unacceptable but not possible, not feasible&#8221; that the plane had not been sighted by the Marconi radar system immediately after it changed course.

http://news.malaysia.msn.com/tmi/pu...rything-about-mh370-anwar-tells-british-daily

Is that different that the military radar or is it two separate claims by the govt about the radar in this case?

 

[branwynbreeze]

Just saw on news that Malaysia denied families' requests to listen to the audio of the communication from the cockpit, citing "ongoing investigation." Hmmmm.......

If/when they release audio, if it sounds like another day at the office I will loose what little of my mind I have left.

 

[costalpilot]

:blushing:r

My guess is that there simply was no one actually monitoring the military radar. It was on, but no one was paying attention. Malaysia doesn't want to admit that their military air defense personnel were so incompetent. They were able to go back and look at the radar tapes to see the plane, but didn't until the next day or two.

Yes its sorta interesting they say " we saw it but didnt think it mattered". If the case actually was that they didnt even see it in real time, that might look worse ( to them) than the official line.

you might well be right.

 

[SouthAussie]

But it was coming in from basically the ocean and officially Vietnamese airspace at that point. Further though, I don't understand why a plane that is on a flight path, even if a known one, is not flagged if it isn't supposed to be there. And, it seems to me they are basically claiming they knew it was unusual, just not a threat?! It also seems it would spur some immediate response to alert the govt and the airline officials/control tower/whatever.

This just made me wonder.

How does a 'public' airport know if an unidentified plane on their radar is or is not a clandestine military plane (from their own country)?

And how does a military airport know if an unidentified plane on their radar is or is not a 'public' plane with transponder problems? Surely some planes must have transponder issues sometimes.

And do very small (2 or 4 seater) private planes have transponders too? Though I realise they couldn't fly at MH370 altitudes, but it is just a general question.

It would be interesting to know how many unidentified (for one reason or another) planes fly around each day, without being questioned and without crashing or disappearing. Maybe there are far more than we realise? :dunno:

 

[JerseyGirl]

most military radars, in the region &#8220;turned on&#8221; would have indentified the flight path of MH370. There is no doubt Malaysia&#8217;s neighbours, or even far-flung Australia and Diego Garcia could have overlooked MH370.

The range of these radar capabilities are so high-tech to detect any unusual flight paths of any aircraft within their territorial air space or in the Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ).


Read more: http://www.fz.com/content/mh370-playing-second-fiddle-national-security#ixzz2xxa3vvVQ

Interesting articles about Diego Garcia:

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_...p-secret-US-military-base-media-reports-8550/

http://malaysiandigest.com/world/49...-to-the-us-and-its-intelligence-services.html

http://www./1199399/malaysia-airlines-flight-370-search-new-leads-technology-and-theories-abound/

 

[21merc7]

This just made me wonder.

How does a 'public' airport know if an unidentified plane on their radar is or is not a clandestine military plane (from their own country)?

And how does a military airport know if an unidentified plane on their radar is or is not a 'public' plane with transponder problems? Surely some planes must have transponder issues sometimes.

And do very small (2 or 4 seater) private planes have transponders too? Though I realise they couldn't fly at MH370 altitudes, but it is just a general question.

It would be interesting to know how many unidentified (for one reason or another) planes fly around each day, without being questioned and without crashing or disappearing. Maybe there are far more than we realise? :dunno:

Ask Boeing and Rolls Royce, ask radar and sat that does not note military planes....Ask Military in every country...................It is all there, we just have no privilege to know, for way too many reasons.............

Roll with it

 

[1&2&3]

I think big changes are on the horizon. Before this happened there was a mandate for something (I can't remember specifically) US planes have to have by 2020 that would have helped in this search. Unfortunately it won't be mandated on planes outside of the US. IIRC, it will add a cost of $13,000 to each plane.

After the expense of this search, $13,000.00 per plane is nothing! However, it would be great to mandate it for all planes built in the USA.

Another thought is with all the technology today, the black box needs a serious overhaul! IIRC, it is 20 year old. Computers are outdated in about two years, so there has to be serious improvements that can be made on these black boxes. Let's show that these lives were not lost in vain, remodel the black box and get the new models out quickly. JMO

 

[branwynbreeze]

MH370 conspiracy: Bung wants Anwar to prove claim


The entire article is purely political. The only point that stands out to me is this:


“If they simply release information, other countries will condemn us,” he added.



http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/ca...0-conspiracy-bung-wants-anwar-to-prove-claim/

So what's worse-looking like Keystone Kop buffoons or being "condemned" by laying cards on table and moving on? At this point they seemingly are just digging a bigger hole.

MOO

 

[time]

Possible questions about radar maintenance...

http://www.tnt.net.my/Malaysia-Inc/zetro-services-sdn-bhd

 

[time]

Interesting articles about Diego Garcia:

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_...p-secret-US-military-base-media-reports-8550/

http://malaysiandigest.com/world/49...-to-the-us-and-its-intelligence-services.html

http://www./1199399/malaysia-airlines-flight-370-search-new-leads-technology-and-theories-abound/

I also read one conspiracy theory that claimed Israel was responsible. But some articles in Israel are claiming Iran is behind it.... I feel like I've just been around the entire globe.

 

[21merc7]

Acknowldegant and observation for those in China, the holiday, festival right now:

Qingming Festival - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Qingming - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Fluffy Puppy]

I just had a thought:

So if they have the time when the plane ran out of fuel (partial handshake). IIUC, if no one was piloting the plane, it would have gone down close to there. If someone was piloting the plane at that time, it could have glided. But let's just say - around that area (where partial handshake happened).

So what they have to do is determine, obviously, where this partial handshake occured.

For that, they need to know things about the plane like speed and altitude and how much fuel was in the plane when it went on auto-pilot.

So, first thing:

How much fuel was in the plane at the time person put it on auto-pilot. :

What I think they should do is, get a similar 777, load it up with exact fuel amount that 370 was loaded with. Put a pilot in it, have the pilot follow the EXACT course that they think 370 took up until where they believe it made the final turn South. In other words, plot out exact route investigators believe, using all existing data points that they have. If the altitude changes are verifiable, include those altitude changes. Use whatever and all data points they have which are sound and verified.

So that course would go up northeast, turn west, follow waypoints out of Malaysian ATC.

THEN, at the precise point that the plane goes out of Malaysian ATC, after the last waypoint, CAPTURE THE MEASUREMENT OF THE AMOUNT OF FUEL LEFT.

Next,

Speed and Altitude:

Now using the amount of fuel measurement they got, take this amount, and plug it into the equation, to get the plane somewhere on the Southern arc by 8:11 and to get the fuel to run out 8 minutes after that point.

It might be that they get a few results - depending on if they plug in some different speeds and altitudes.

But at least that way you have narrowed down search area significantly - now you only have these few possible areas where the plane could be.

IDK, maybe??

Great explanation, and good thinking, but you guys lose me when folks think they haven't thought of this. I am pretty sure they have thought of and done or calcualted things like this. There are a LOT of big physics and aeronautics brains working on this. How else do you think they came up with the current search area?

 

[LambChop]

Interesting articles about Diego Garcia:

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_...p-secret-US-military-base-media-reports-8550/

http://malaysiandigest.com/world/49...-to-the-us-and-its-intelligence-services.html

http://www./1199399/malaysia-airlines-flight-370-search-new-leads-technology-and-theories-abound/

I can't imagine with all the "spy" satellites we have circulating the earth that there are none focused on Diego Garcia from other nations. It is not hidden from the air, very visible so it is highly unlikely that Flight 370 landed there and not have been seen. Plus we have our own planes, why would we want to steal one. jmo

 

[JerseyGirl]

I can't imagine with all the "spy" satellites we have circulating the earth that there are none focused on Diego Garcia from other nations. It is not hidden from the air, very visible so it is highly unlikely that Flight 370 landed there and not have been seen. Plus we have our own planes, why would we want to steal one. jmo

I heard on CNN with Wolf Blitzer that the families are asking to tour or fly over Diego Garcia. I didn't hear correctly.

Eric Burnett's OutFront is on CNN, she mentioned it in her opening statement and may talk about it this hour.