writer7
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Good afternoon! I skimmed the pages so that I can keep up currently while having something to read later. The space scientist from NASA, Duncan Steel, has a new analysis on his blog and it's fascinating as usual. I'm going to post a bit of that in a while. ( http://www.duncansteel.com/ )
But he starts off with a bit of a rant that I think is very warranted. The lack of transparency in the data from Inmarsat and the British investigative team is hampering the ability to get the best answers (my wording, not his). He was correct about the wobble of the satellite needing to be included, and that is why they moved the search area 700 miles after all! He posted that while they were still searching in the wrong spot. Inmarsat did goof
I can tell a related little story (with few details) that a little Top Secret birdy told me a few times. It's probably publicly known by now, because it happened so very long ago. Back when they were still using early computers and coming up with nuclear weapons technology, they had an important math problem that would take very long to do with their current technology. So they (the US) hired 500-1000 civilian bookkeepers to work on various steps of the problem. They used statistics to decide that the best answers were probably right, and then they moved on to the next step the same way.
In other words, they didn't just use their regular one small (relatively speaking) team to try to do all the crunching. And they didn't wait the weeks the computer would have taken to spit out the answer. They crowd-sourced, basically.
That's what Steel suggests, and I totally agree. Here he is, a NASA scientist, wanting to work on the problem and he's not even paid or anything. There are tons of knowledgeable people out there like him, yet Inmarsat has data that very few people get to see
They say they've refined the analyses again, and that's good, but I bet the analysis would be even better/quicker if they did what those early nuclear teams did way back when. Statistics and basic vetting (you want someone who can do the math) will tell which the best answers are. It's just sad. I know they are brilliant and special, but they still goofed! Get all the great minds on it, darnit!
But he starts off with a bit of a rant that I think is very warranted. The lack of transparency in the data from Inmarsat and the British investigative team is hampering the ability to get the best answers (my wording, not his). He was correct about the wobble of the satellite needing to be included, and that is why they moved the search area 700 miles after all! He posted that while they were still searching in the wrong spot. Inmarsat did goof
I can tell a related little story (with few details) that a little Top Secret birdy told me a few times. It's probably publicly known by now, because it happened so very long ago. Back when they were still using early computers and coming up with nuclear weapons technology, they had an important math problem that would take very long to do with their current technology. So they (the US) hired 500-1000 civilian bookkeepers to work on various steps of the problem. They used statistics to decide that the best answers were probably right, and then they moved on to the next step the same way.
In other words, they didn't just use their regular one small (relatively speaking) team to try to do all the crunching. And they didn't wait the weeks the computer would have taken to spit out the answer. They crowd-sourced, basically.
That's what Steel suggests, and I totally agree. Here he is, a NASA scientist, wanting to work on the problem and he's not even paid or anything. There are tons of knowledgeable people out there like him, yet Inmarsat has data that very few people get to see
They say they've refined the analyses again, and that's good, but I bet the analysis would be even better/quicker if they did what those early nuclear teams did way back when. Statistics and basic vetting (you want someone who can do the math) will tell which the best answers are. It's just sad. I know they are brilliant and special, but they still goofed! Get all the great minds on it, darnit!