Quite often, when a woman is abducted on a park path, we assume a random crime of opportunity. I'm wondering whether this was a situation where he knew who she was and her habits, but she did not know him. He looks fit. Did they first cross paths at a gym? She was on several dating sites. Did they connect there, but he used someone else's photo?
Like the Kohberger murders in Idaho, where he crossed paths with one of the victims and learned the house schedule, I think this suspect crossed paths with Rachel somewhere prior to the murder.
That gave him the advantage on the path. It seems unusual to grab a woman in broad daylight off a path right next to a drainage culvert, unless it's all pre-planned and he is expecting her.
Same with the cameras. He arrived at the house, but there's no footage of his face approaching the camera (that we know of). Chances are he knew that the young girl was home alone and perhaps he knew camera locations prior to the assault.