No...I would say at this point that the “random stranger hypothesis” seems extremely unlikely. Not impossible of course, but highly improbable in my view.
And just to be clear... I’m not just saying this based on a hunch I have or some “feeling”.
It’s hard to explain my thought process here but I’ll do my best...
I’ve spent endless hours since Ally’s death trying to rationalize and understand what happened that day and why. I think about the time leading up to that day and everything that happened and everything that I’ve learned and observed since that day.
After Ally was killed, Nikki and I both knew that her and I were by far the two closest people in Ally’s life, and if anyone could relate in anyway to the pain we were going through, it was each other. We had grown close and had kept in regular contact, a couple times a week, for over a year after Ally died.
Over that year I had noticed a lot of strange things about Nikki and Franz’s behavior and odd things Nikki would tell me about Franz.
Nikki had repeatedly told me that she felt like she was grieving the loss of her daughter alone in that house.
That Franz was is no way supportive at all and that he seem completely unable to relate to why she was in so much pain.
There was also quite a bit of fighting going on, followed by days of them not speaking to each other on a regular basis.... but she would never give me any more details than that.
Eventually I had grown more and more suspicious of Franz. I eventually shared this with Nikki and told her that she really needs to consider this possibility since she wasn’t home with Franz when Ally left her run or when she was killed.
Now keep this in mind, Nikki had originally told me that when she left the house earlier that day Ally was still sleeping and Franz was the last person to see her before her run.
Nikki suddenly started completely flipped out on me and having a melt down over the phone. When I brought up that we both know just how bad things really were between Ally and Franz...
Nikki drastically downplayed it saying, “So they weren’t very close, so what!...that doesn’t mean anything! Just STOP! I just know it wasn’t Franz ok!?!?”
So again, I told Nikki that I know she doesn't “believe” it was Franz... but she couldn’t really say she “knows” it wasn’t because, again, she wasn’t home!
What Nikki said next changed everything for me...
“I know it wasn’t Franz because he was with me!”
She then went on to tell me that she actually never left earlier that day, she was home with Franz the whole time and I was just “confused”.
I immediately called ******** on this and told her I think she either know it was him, or at a minimum, strongly suspects Franz and is scared to death to accept it and she’s trying to protect him.
Nikki and I have never spoke again. Six months later crime watch came to town and she found out they were going to interview me... she knew what was coming!
She knew I would bring up Franz. That’s when it became very important to her to do as much creditably damage to me as possible! Saying things like, “He hardly knows us, he only met us once! I don’t even speak to him!”
You’ll also notice it’s the first time she ever mentions this mysterious guy she was supposed to go visit and it’s the first time she suddenly starts saying she actually suspects me!
Then I discovered that in the months after our falling out over me suspecting Franz... Nikki had been coming up with completely fabricated suspicious stories about me and feeding them to the police.
When Chris Hanson asked Nikki her number one reason for suspecting me, Nikki told him that one day I was over her house and she asked me to go on a walk with her to the spot where Ally died, but got mad I kept refusing and I didn’t want to go there and I couldn’t tell her why!
Ok... that NEVER happened! So in other words, her number one reason for suspecting me was something she had to completely make up? What hell is going on here? If you don’t actually suspect me then why pretend like you do? Wouldn't this compromise the actual effort to find the person who really killed her daughter?
I could go on and on, but I’m basically at a point where if they were to arrest some stranger and charge them with Ally’s murder it would actually create far more questions than answers! It would still leave everything about Nikki’s recent behaviors and lies completely unexplained!
I thought Nikki said in her early interviews that she said goodbye to Alex as she went on her run - in the usual way? Something like 'be safe.' Isn't that in her early media statements and news articles?
But you are saying she first told you she left when Ally was asleep (and then she changed her account).
It all sounds very muddled. I'm imagining that what she told the police was consistent as it hasn't led to her or Franz's arrests.