Though MOST child abductions are opportunistic grabs, not by true pedophiles, (though this certainly does occur ) but most often by those who act due to situational factors in their lives prior to the crime.
Anyone who has ever read my analysis's on other cases know I'm VERY reluctant to use the word "Serial" in
mostcases, be it abduction, homicides, or sexual assaults, (though its often inferred in just about every other case on this here) Most abductions, rapes and murders are NOT the work of a "serial predator" on the prowl.
This is why one should never try to attempt to link cases, without a thorough understanding of the one they are working first .
This is usually performed once we have enough facts through what is called a "linkage analysis"
This case however has the evidential basis to possibly be one (based on what little information we do know)
Whenever we analyze an abduction we look at certain factors, we profile the victim (known as a "victimology assessment") We want to know everything about the victim, prior to their disappearance, this very often yields clues in and of itself
Small often overlooked factors often can change the entire course of an investigation and breathe new life into what was once a cold case.
In cases where the FBI is brought in to assist this is their standard practice. I personally feel its one of, if not the most valuable and underrated tools available to investigators .
Once we thoroughly know the "Victim" we can start to analyze what type of person may have interacted with them .
I'll break down the facts as I have read them and simply point out what I feel is pertinent
In this case you have an 11 Yo white male who was forcefully abducted while in the presence of others at gunpoint, by a masked male.
I cant find where it indicates what time of day this occurred , I've only seen it described as "at night" I did read an article from one of the other boys present that night (Aaron Larson) who said it was "pitch dark".
According to a NISMART study (2002)
Defining Nonfamily Abduction and Related Terms:
•
Nonfamily abduction: (1) An episode in which a
nonfamily perpetrator takes a child by the use of
physical force or threat of bodily harm or detains
the child for a substantial period of time (at least
1 hour) in an isolated place by the use of physical
force or threat of bodily harm without lawful authority
or parental permission, or (2) an episode in
which a child younger than 15 or mentally incompetent,
and without lawful authority or parental permission,
is taken or detained or voluntarily accompanies
a nonfamily perpetrator who conceals the
child’s whereabouts, demands ransom, or expresses
the intention to keep the child permanently.
•
Stereotypical kidnapping: A nonfamily abduction
perpetrated by a slight acquaintance or stranger in
which a child is detained overnight, transported at
least 50 miles, held for ransom or abducted with
intent to keep the child permanently, or killed.
•
Stranger: A perpetrator whom the child or family do
not know, or a perpetrator of unknown identity.
•
Slight acquaintance: A nonfamily perpetrator whose
name is unknown to the child or family prior to the
abduction and whom the child or family did not know
well enough to speak to, or a recent acquaintance who
the child or family have known for less than 6 months,
or someone the family or child have known for longer
than 6 months but seen less than once a month.
Key Findings
■ During the study year, there were an estimated 115
stereotypical kidnappings, defined as abductions perpetrated
by a stranger or slight acquaintance and
involving a child who was transported 50 or more
miles, detained overnight, held for ransom or with
the intent to keep the child permanently, or killed.
■ In 40 percent of stereotypical kidnappings, the child
was killed, and in another 4 percent, the child was
not recovered.
■ There were an estimated 58,200 child victims of nonfamily
abduction, defined more broadly to include
all nonfamily perpetrators (friends and acquaintances
as well as strangers) and crimes involving lesser
amounts of forced movement or detention in addition
to the more serious crimes entailed in stereotypical
kidnappings.
■ Fifty-seven percent of children abducted by a nonfamily
perpetrator were missing from caretakers for
at least 1 hour, and police were contacted to help
locate 21 percent of the abducted children.
■ Teenagers were by far the most frequent victims
of both stereotypical kidnappings and nonfamily
abductions.
■ Nearly half of all child victims of stereotypical kidnappings
and nonfamily abductions were sexually
assaulted by the perpetrator.
(Note In this study there is a distinction between "Non-family abductions" and "Stereotypical Kidnappings")
"Because kidnapping prevention focuses on the danger of strangers, it may be surprising that the majority of nonfamily abduction victims (53 percent)are abducted by persons
known to the child: 38 percent of nonfamily abducted children were abducted by a friend or long-term acquaintance,5 percent by a neighbor, 6 percent by persons of authority, and 4 a caretaker or babysitter. Strangers abducted 37 percent of the
nonfamily abduction victims, and slight acquaintances (considered similar to strangers and including persons who were known but seen infrequently
or who may have recently befriended a child or family in order to abduct the child) abducted 8 percent. Stereotypical kidnappings, consistent with
the most publicized nonfamily abduction cases, are limited by definition to cases perpetrated by strangers and slight acquaintances
About 1 in 5 victims of nonfamily abductions (21 percent) and almost half the victims of stereotypical kidnappings (48 percent) were abducted by
multiple perpetrators (table 3). In instances of multiple perpetrators, episodes were classified according to the child’s relationship with the most closely related perpetrator. "(
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/196467.pdf)
The offenders are overwhelmingly male "At least 95 percent are men, and they tend to be unmarried and have few friends" with the Median age of those involved in the abduction of children is approximately 27 years of age. ( A 16 year age span of offenders from age 13 to age 30, is the most active at 57% , where the 30 to 89 years of age bracket of 42 % its important to note the concentration of offenses in sample 1 which only spans 16 years as opposed to the second sample which spans 59 years respectively.
"Abductors usually have very little, if any, contact with children in their daily lives, That distinguishes them from a great majority of child molesters who are able to coerce victims by winning their trust and friendship.
''Why do these particular child molesters abduct?'' Mr. Lanning asked. ''Because they lack the interpersonal skills to attract, befriend and seduce their victims.''
For that reason, they are more likely than other molesters to use guns, knives or other force to commit their crimes.
About 40 percent of the time, abductors who take children for sexual purposes kill the victims, said Dr. Finkelhor, who compiles child abduction statistics for the Justice Department. In 32 percent of the cases, the children are seriously injured.
A fourth of abductor-molesters are sadistic, deriving pleasure from their victims' suffering, according to a study by Dr. Robert A. Prentky, of F&P Associates, a forensic psychology practice in Boston. Eight percent of child molesters over all are considered sadistic.
No statistics exist to show how many abductors are repeat offenders, but based on his observations, Dr. Finkelhor said, he suspects the number is significant.
Socially bereft, sexually fixated on children and willing to use violence, the portrait is clearly incomplete, the experts acknowledge. What makes such men dream up their schemes in the first place? What leads them to be so callous about the welfare of children? Why are they violent? The answers are more likely to be found in the psychological characteristics of individual abductors. " Kenneth Lanning (FBI Ret.)...
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/27/science/who-would-abduct-a-child-previous-cases-offer-clues.html
"Girls were the predominant victims of nonfamily abductions overall and of stereotypical kidnappings as well (65 percent and 69 percent, respectively), reflecting the frequency of sexual assault as a motive for many nonfamily abductions"..
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/ojjdp/196467.pdf
In 46% of all Non Family Abductions (NFA) and 49% of all Stereotypical Kidnappings (SK) the victim was sexually assaulted,denoting the overwhelming sexual motive of non family abductions and Stereotypical kidnappings alike
In 31% (NFA) and 33% (SK) the perpetrator physically assaulted the child
According to a 2006 study done by the National Center For Missing and Exploited Children (NCMEC), this study indicated that of the victims that were murdered, "76.2 percent of abducted children who are killed are dead within three hours of the abduction".
In 40% (NFA) and 49% (SK) the perpetrator used a weapon
Now we have some baseline numbers to work with we can start to look at who may be responsible
- MOST of the indicators in this case, would lead the reader to conclude this was most likely a Stranger abduction. However given the data above one can make an educated assumption that the offender may have been known to Jacob, even if only slightly.
-Interesting factors in this case:
1) Time of occurrence
2) Location of occurrence
3) Victim Selection
4) Use of Weapon
5) Offender hides identity
6) Actions taken by offender during occurrence
In looking at this case, I find it interesting that although it was dark, AND that he was wearing a mask to skew his identity the offender still made the boys get face down on the ground and advised them not to look in his direction or he would shoot (if the info I have read is correct). As we mentioned before its almost as likely that Jacob knew his abductor as the possibility he didn't. Was this so they couldn't identify his vehicle?.. its very possible.
The offender was described as having a "rough raspy" voice similar to that of someone who smokes, (I don't make much of the voice other than an intimidating tone has been used by offenders to "scare" potential victims ...We now refer to it as the "Batman voice"
The attack took place off the main road away from where the offender could be seen, it doesn't seem like a road heavily travelled, and certainly doesn't appear well lit. This leads me to believe the boys were followed if even for a short period to where the offender felt was the most opportunistic location . Its important to note there is no way to find out how long the offender followed the victim (if they indeed did) It may have been the entire duration from the time they left to the time they were accosted, or simply from the time they entered the store till the time they were accosted.
The fact that the offender both had a weapon and a means available at that moment to obscure his appearance, leads me to believe this was more of a planned event , that we are looking at the possibility of a predator out actively searching for victim(s), as opposed to the more common opportunistic attack.
This at least to me indicates not only planning, but possibly even EXPERIENCE!
The time this occurs is interesting , because if this is indeed a predatory type looking for a victim, he chooses to do so after dark, now this could be for any variety of reasons , but the time when most younger kids are inside, why did he select this time of day??? makes this interesting at the least, which again leads to the possibility the boys were followed.
The boys did not see the offender coming, or leaving , he makes them get face down on the ground at gunpoint walks up, asks each boys age , asks to look at each boys face, before "selecting" Jacob, and taking him most likely to a waiting vehicle. Here we ask , WHY Jacob and not the other 2 ?, all boys were similar in appearance, what made Jacob the ONLY target?, hell why not take all 3 ?. this leads me to believe we are dealing with a LONE offender, and not a ring of offenders . If thee were more than 1 he could control them better. He wouldn't need to surprise them.
There was something about Jacob that made him a target amongst a trio of potential victims.
This offender was in NO hurry he took his time, carefully selected his victim
asked each ones age, which is interesting . Anyone at all familiar with Pedophiles is well aware that attraction for such individuals is based more on appearance (attraction) than a victims actual age , In other words if for example their preferred victim is an 11yo (boy /girl) they will still engage in deviant activity with an older (or in some cases younger) victim provided the older or younger victim fits the physical description of what they are attracted to.
Some pedophiles will even have consensual sex with adults who dress, and act the way of their preferential age group, which is a means of bypassing the legal repercussions of their deviant desires.
In investigative analysis there are 3 Classifications of "pedophile" (along with 4 classifications of "situational child Molester") A Pedophile is a clinical diagnosis of an individual who has a clear defined sexual preference for children, as opposed to "Situational molesters" (the more common) who molest for certain environmental circumstances. .. this has now been configured into a continuum, but ill explain it the old fashioned way to make it easier to understand (the continuum can be a B!tch)
-
Seduction Type (Jerry Sandusky etc..) Desires a consenting loving and emotional and sexual relationship with a child under the legal age of consent. These individuals will often place themselves where they have access to potential victims (Coach, scout leader, youth counselor etc..) they look at the relationship the same way consenting adults, do. They will often refer to children as "angelic", or "pure" and will express true love and affection toward them. Sometimes openly. The Seduction type, does not view their actions as "harmful" but as "loving" he will often have childish interests that rival that of their intended victims, (video games, toys) , and may even have spaces, or rooms in their homes dedicated to such. Their caring appearance, and manipulative abilities, attract kids to them, and because of this, their access to potential victims, and the secrecy often employed by these individuals They of all pedophiles have the potential to record STAGGERING numbers of victims (50-300 on average) before their actions are discovered. Because of their access to victims the Seduction type is the least likely to actually abduct, they have no need to.
-
Introverted type (The playground pervert) IS a more impulsive type, he usually is socially inept (social marginal) his poor social skills put him at ease more in the company of children whom he also harbors sexual desires for. Their interaction with victims is often brief, depending on the individual this activity could range from exposing himself to children, to frotteurism (rubbing against) to even abduction rape and murder. These individuals run a pretty wide gamut, though the motivating factors remain constant throughout their behavior. For example they may marry and have children but that is usually for the sole purpose of having victims to molest, often those encounters are brief as well. He will get involved with multiple women if he does not marry, primarly with children who are or will grow to that age of his preferential victims.
-
Sadistic (Also "Mysopeds") Sadistic Child abductors are the MOST likely to kill their victims, they abduct victims solely for the purpose of self sexual gratification through the suffering of others , in this case the preferred victim is a child. These offenders, most often use ruse to lure their intended victim but will also use force in some cases, in some cases both. Ruse can run the gamut from asking to help look for a lost puppy or child, to impersonation of a Law enforcement official (Why we take police impersonators so seriously). Because of the nature of what they intend to do to a victim, the victim almost certainly has to be moved to a "secure" area. This could be an elaborately rigged room in their home, a vehicle equipped with what they need, or even an isolated spot outside depending on the needs of the offender.
In some cases, the murder of the victim, may be scripted into the entire act itself...where the victim is tortured to death when this becomes eroticized and becomes part of the individuals psychological need, this individual is referred to as a "Mysoped" , Individuals such as (Westley Allan Dodd/Richard Edward Duncan) represent the the most depraved type of sadistic offender.
Im sure to many peoples relief this type is also the MOST rare, but certainly the most frightening
I don't think you are looking at a guy, who just got into t fight with his girlfriend, a guy who was pissed off at work, or was looking at legal issues, saw a kid and decided ...this kids getting it, there is way too much planning, though I certainly wouldn't rule out the use of *advertiser censored* prior to this crime... the point of the attack was too perfect, I feel this was most likely the work of a predator, and NOT one in the infancy of his criminal career .
Most likely late 20's early 30's , will have a criminal history most likely involving sexual crimes toward children, though it may not involve murder (which may be an exception in this case). Because this is a missing persons case, and not a Sexual assault case, the notoriety would've almost certainly caused noticeable post offensive behavior. Most likely somewhat introverted
Most likely lives alone or with parents, may be married, but it will be with certain oddball stipulations
Employment will be unemployed , or employed in an unskilled labor position
Would probably be described by others as "strange" , will most likely have a history of sexual problems
People around this individual would've noticed, changes in behavior, an increase in use of intoxicants or drugs, increasing interest in religion, almost certainly a change of appearance, would become more withdrawn, would most likely demonstrate an unnatural interest in the case, even possible personal interjection into the case, (Investigative consideration) to gain information, or "clear" themselves.
What I sometimes call "Shedding" getting rid of clothing, belongings, even things as large as a vehicle, odd items appearing in their possession with no explanation (trophies). Time discrepancies.
I believe someone knows something
I'm willing to bet the individual is most likely already known to authorities
I will state now I DO NOT believe that Jacob Wetterling was his first or last victim, Police should focus on any abduction or potential abduction in that area around that time period , whether the victim was found safe or otherwise.
If we are to apply all the numbers , the scenario I personally come up with is a serial Rapist of young boys, I say Rapist .. not killer , but in this case, Jacob was never found , which makes me feel something happened, which resulted in Jacob not being returned...Something this control freak offender, wasn't counting on
Soooo, was that long enough?..=
sorry I apologize Im pretty passionate about crimes against children
It's a German town. There were booked bands at the Polka Fest. the Deutschmeisters weren't one of them. ELOC has the list of which bands played for the polka fest.
