I agree with your earlier post that this was a crime of opportunity. And your comment that the perp was planning on shooting the boys if they didn't do what he wanted...knowing who was within earshot....intriguing comment! But my sense is that if he had actually shot a gun in that area....it would most definitely be heard...whether or not it would be paid attention to...IDK. But sound really carries at night. Schreifls(sp?) house was very nearby...one cannot mistake the sound of a gunshot even in that remote area. IMO, the gun first and his commanding voice second were his only means of control. And the gun for all intents + purposes could even have been fake-but without it-he really would not have been able to exert such immediate control. I think he knew the boys would be scared out of their wits-rightly so-and the threat of shooting them would be way more than enough to get them to comply. Shooting them would be a complete disaster for the perp and escalate the situation exponentially. So my point is: it was a sexually motivated abduction with a very calculated risk knowing he had the element of surprise in the dark for sure but also completely unexpected on a desolate location. Every advantage to the perp. Also, I agree that looking at the 3 boys faces suggests he was looking for his preferences and IMO....Trevor most likely too young was eliminated first. Then it amounted to a visual preference between Jacob + Aaron. Even if he was local, it may be that he really wasn't that familiar with the 3 boys...thus the 'interrogation'. One must ask: how was the perp so comfortable in taking the time for all of this? He could have simply taken a flashlight(maybe even the boy's flashlight) and shined it in the boys' faces while they were still holding their bikes(+ scooter) and grabbed Jacob and told the other two to run. But he didn't do that....he was methodical + focused-determined + efficient....disciplined enough to get what he wanted- knowing the opportunity may not come again.
Um...okay...that's an odd description. It almost seems like it's intended to be an admiration of sorts, and I'm not sure what to say to it.
As for the rest...
Personally, I think his method was very awkward and amateurish...and really unwisely high-risk, since he was outnumbered 3-to-1 and probably couldn't shoot in three different directions at once if his targets decided to make a run for it on their bikes/scooters. This makes me think he lacked social skills, or maybe he became desperate because he had no other means of making contact with his intended targets(others may have sensed he had ulterior motives, and kept their children away from him).
I would almost expect him to be a first-time offender, but I don't think he is because of all the similar acts of violence against children(such as Jared) that look like they could be connected to this.
I'd never really given thought to the idea that the gun could have been fake, but now I'm thinking it's more likely that it
was. If he had a mask and a gun that(maybe) seemed to be a toy, it makes even more sense that one of the boys had at first thought the incident looked like a joke...but, the risk of not taking someone who approaches like that seriously could be a very dangerous one, especially in the dark.
If it was a real gun, by chance, and he'd have fired it, someone with a bigger gun could have shown up. I wonder if he'd been watching the nearby houses for activity. If he was
extremely local, he might have known enough about everyone's schedule to be able to identify patterns - and that could be one possibility for his apparent lack of concern about how much time he was spending at the scene, interrogating the boys.
My gut tells me he canvassed a large(but probably familiar) area, looking for victims to take back to wherever he was based and harm/kill them...but, as someone on another thread commented, the vast majority of missing people turn up within a very short distance(whether dead or alive) from their abduction site. Two to five miles, I think.
I keep hoping that Jacob will be found alive like Shawn Hornbeck was, but I can appreciate how much more time has passed since he went missing.