Found Deceased NC - Hania Noelia Aguilar, 13, abducted and murdered, Lumberton, 5 Nov 2018 #4 *Arrest*

[not.a.muggle]

That's the other thing that bugs me. From what I understand, she asked the aunt if she could start the car. The aunt says "no". Hania grabs the keys and goes to start the car anyway. It just seems too coincidental that the one day she ignores her aunt, this guy shows up and abducts her. But if she was determined to meet someone, she might have disobeyed for that reason.

Was that mentioned in an interview?

 

[zencompass]

Crime Scene Location Variables:

A) Abduction Site:
Known

B) Potential (SA) Assault Site:
Unknown

C) Murder Site:
Unknown

D) Disposal Site:
Known

E) Vehicle Abandoned Site:
Known

—
1. Are B and C the same (assuming B occurred)?

2. Are B and/or C separate from D?

——-

Reverse Variable examination:

1. Could E have oddly occurred before B, C and D?
a) if there was another vehicle ready for transfer (unlikely if opportunistic?) or
b) there was walking involved? (Unlikely, moo)
c)

It would be more likely E would occur after B,C, D? Moo.

—-

ETA:

Timeline variables:

1.) How soon after B and C did D and E occur? Stats tells us likely soon after if a classic pedophile/hebephile abduction occurred.

Which at this point sounds plausible, except the “carjacking” throws in the unusual MO factor.

2.) How soon after D did E occur, assuming E did not occur before D?

3.) If a classic predator SA and Murder occurred, stats would tell us that A and B and C (and possibly D, but some predators keep their victims overnight and complete the disposal the next day, etc, Craig Wood, ARS..) likely occurred soon after each other.
But these other predators had a place to take them to and a home nearby. This predator took a vehicle and appeared to be on foot heforehand.

4.) IMO appears to have resemblances of a classic abduction and murder based on mileage stats, etc at the moment, however there is nothing to indicate someone might not have returned the general area to perform the disposal there later? In order to possibly make it appear as a classic child abduction or contain the crime scene in that area? No that’s doubtful (talking to myself out loud just trying to think about this timeline), also would be brazen to return to area...

5.) How soon after C did D occur, if they are not one in the same?

Dear Margarita25,

Geographic Profiling would be used, along with all of their other investigative tools and methods, by this investigative team and they would be looking at the same things you've mentioned.

From my post (#100):


Geographic Profiling :
"In relation to criminal activity, therefore, it follows that an offender has to know about a particular geographical area before he or she begins selecting crimes to commit; and where the offenders movement patterns intersect within this geographical area, will to a large extent determine where the crime takes place."

"Geographic profiling works on the premise that the location of a crime site can provide the police with vital information. It assesses and predicts the offender’s most likely place of residence, place of work, social venues and travel routes etc."

 

[swanniee11]

That's the other thing that bugs me. From what I understand, she asked the aunt if she could start the car. The aunt says "no". Hania grabs the keys and goes to start the car anyway. It just seems too coincidental that the one day she ignores her aunt, this guy shows up and abducts her. But if she was determined to meet someone, she might have disobeyed for that reason.

Not so much O/T but the whole Hania going to start the car and the Aunt saying no, from when I 1st read that I kind of felt it was a change of story so nobody would be in trouble for allowing a minor to start the car. I know this seems stupid now but I do recall on thread #1 when I read that it kind of felt like it was something they were hiding out of fear, it also seemed to be dropped quickly as well. JMO, not that it matters.

 

[Neese68]

Not so much O/T but the whole Hania going to start the car and the Aunt saying no, from when I 1st read that I kind of felt it was a change of story so nobody would be in trouble for allowing a minor to start the car. I know this seems stupid now but I do recall on thread #1 when I read that it kind of felt like it was something they were hiding out of fear, it also seemed to be dropped quickly as well. JMO, not that it matters.

Good point. I never put much thought into Hania starting the car that morning. It just doesn't seem to be anything there to make or break the case however...I did just have a thought that maybe the aunt etc maybe would let Hania drive them all to the entrance of the MHP because it's a low speed area. Just thinking out loud. My great grandad would let me drive thru cemetaries at age 10 and I thought it was the funnest thing ever. Just speculating but who knows.

 

[SkilledInsight]

Many questions still remain. LE has stated they don't have a suspect or POI. It would really help if we knew where Hania was over the weekend. Her family structure. A lot of 13 year olds try to act like adults.
Random but why did FBI chare tweet on another missing 13 year old Jayme Closs?

 

[Von Pinn]

I am not sure about that. That would be risky. She could have told him to be at the bus stop or where she got off the bus for school.

That's true. I was also wondering if he had even more sinister plans. Maybe he decided that's the day he's going to abduct her one way or another. Something similar to what happened to the 13-year-old in Wisconsin. And abduct Hania in the vehicle. But when he arrives, he sees Hania already outside.

 

[Von Pinn]

Good point. I never put much thought into Hania starting the car that morning. It just doesn't seem to be anything there to make or break the case however...I did just have a thought that maybe the aunt etc maybe would let Hania drive them all to the entrance of the MHP because it's a low speed area. Just thinking out loud. My great grandad would let me drive thru cemetaries at age 10 and I thought it was the funnest thing ever. Just speculating but who knows.

I guess it's different now. They can listen to music on their phones, etc. But back when I was a teenager, I wanted the keys to the car so I could not only start it up but listen to the car stereo for a little bit before my mom came out. I would have a little bit of privacy for a few minutes.

 

[PommyMommy]

Community remembers short life of Hania Aguilar
People come to church for answers, for rest and often to find what once was lost.

Many like 13-year-old, M, who went to church with Hania, came to pray and to remember his friend. "Most of her friends didn't want to talk about it, they're pretty devastated," he said.

Devastated: A word you don't often hear during a church service.

Some of Hania's family's friends say the family is just absolutely devastated.

A celebration of hania's life is being planned for this weekend...As soon as we get those details we will share them with you.

 

[kkdj]

Not so much O/T but the whole Hania going to start the car and the Aunt saying no, from when I 1st read that I kind of felt it was a change of story so nobody would be in trouble for allowing a minor to start the car. I know this seems stupid now but I do recall on thread #1 when I read that it kind of felt like it was something they were hiding out of fear, it also seemed to be dropped quickly as well. JMO, not that it matters.

Exactly what I felt too.
I went with what the aunt said but it kept not fitting.

 

[PommyMommy]

Body found in Robeson identified as Hania Aguilar, officials say :: WRAL.com - Video of CS' interview at the link
Neighbors at the Rose Wood Mobile Home Park said Aguilar’s kidnapping and death have impacted them deeply.

CS was one of only a few seen playing outside in the mobile home park. “I don’t see no one coming outside no more like they used to,” he said. “Everybody has been staying in the house lately.”

“I can’t even bring my brother and sister out here no more,” he continued. “It’s tough, and they can’t even go to school. They ride the bus.”

Throughout the neighborhood, bicycles sat unused in front yards as parents kept their children inside.

CS said he was there when Aguilar disappeared Nov. 5. Like other witnesses, he said it happened so fast. “That morning I was actually out,” Santos said. “I heard screaming, and I saw a car hitting the gas out the trailer park.”

A friend of the family who visited the Aguilar home Wednesday said Hania’s mother was devastated.

 

[PommyMommy]

Lumberton community shaken by discover of Hania Aguilar's body
"She was kind and nice and very calm," said Aguilar's friend AB.

"It really has shaken us because no one expects it to be in your backyard," said Dr. Shanita Wooten, the superintendent of Robeson County Schools. Wooten said her heart sank when she first received the call from Lumberton police Tuesday.

Aguilar was kidnapped just feet from her front door back on Nov. 5. Since then, the school district — including teachers, administrators, staff and parents — has tried to help Aguilar's family by bringing them meals and groceries. Aguilar's ESL teacher even went to the funeral home to help translate for the family.

"It doesn't just impact her family, it impacts us all," Wooten said

"I didn't think it would be her body ... She lived four trailers down from me," friend JB said.

Wooten said Aguilar's wake and possibly her funeral will be held at Lumberton High School.

She's also planning a forum on safety that will be held in mid-December.

 

[gregjrichards]

I’m so sorry to read the update that Hania has been found. May she Rest In Peace.

 

[SkilledInsight]

Warning: gross

The people in the video who live on Wire Grass Rd related that they smelled decomposition about a week and a half ago which they thought was likely a dead deer. NC has had mild temperatures but has been very wet recently both before and since Hania was taken. So the decomposition rate should be moderate or average compared to dry, cold, hot, very humid, etc. Googling some results on human decomp. smell noticeable by people, it is actually very soon after death. In NC conditions, smell apparent in probably about 12 hours and getting worse.

I wonder if Hania was held somewhere for about 10 days, then killed and dumped there. I doubt the body was moved. The perpetrator may have been watching where LE searches were conducted, and that's why they chose the already searched area?

I think he had a partner in this crime. I think the partner dropped him off near the mobile home park, then drove their vehicle to wait in the dark on the woodline. This perpetrator#1 stole the car and Hania, met perpetrator#2 where the green car was left, and they took Hania from there in their vehicle. They kept her at their location until she died, about 10 days, then they dumped her body at the second location on Wire Grass, 10 days ago.

I think both perpetrators are local.

The person who owns that land Has had it since 2009 its 1.04 acres if the correct address is 4302. Doesnt show any dwellings on that land though. Not sure I can post the property owners name?

etA: The person who owns the one directly in front of it is a family member of the owner above...both adresses come up to 4302 wire grass and 4302 wiregrass. just spelled diffrently

ETA: the first one is land only the second is single family home and 2.04 acres that one is closest to the road, the back parcel is 1.04 acres and no dwellings

 

[Seattle1]

Was that mentioned in an interview?

....The case is being investigated as a stranger abduction, Capt. Terry Parker said.

Aguilar’s mother is asking the person who took her daughter to bring the girl back home, the FBI release said.

Aguilar went out to start the green 2002 Ford Expedition sport utility vehicle, which belongs to a relative, despite being told not to do so, family members said. ...BBM

Lumberton mobile home residents concerned, scared after girl's kidnapping

To my knowledge, the Observer was the only source to report that Hania was told not to start vehicle. Hania's 8 year old sister allegedly translated for reporter. MOO

 

[Seattle1]

The initial Police Report:

Lumberton Police Department
November 5 at 9:12 AM ·

MISSING PERSON
Case 18-43338
Hania Aguilar, Age 13
Hispanic female
5' 126 lbs - brown hair/brown eyes

This morning November 5, 2018 in Rosewood Mobile Home Park at approximately 0654 hours, Hania Aguilar grabbed her aunt's keys to crank up her vehicle to prepare to leave for the bus stop. Witnessed by another family member, an unknown male wearing a yellow bandanna over his face approached and grabbed Hania Aguilar and forced her into the green 2002 Ford Expedition and fled the area. The vehicle belonging to Hania Aguilar's aunt, has South Carolina registration NWS984. The vehicle has paint peeling from the hood and a Clemson sticker on the rear window. Suspect race and description is not known. Both vehicle and Hania Aguilar are entered into NCIC and an Amber Alert has already been issued. (see comments for recent picture) If you see this vehicle or Hania Aguilar, please contact Lumberton Police Department at (910)671-3845 or dial 911 immediately upon seeing them.
BBM

Lumberton Police Department

 

[Jethro4WS]

MISSING RUTHERFORD COUNTY GIRL:'We just want her back home': Community pleads for return of missing Rutherford County teen

Posted shortly after today's update. Top story now..

There is an update to that story..

Aubrey Joell Acree, 13, of Rutherford County, was found safe and alive in Checotah, Oklahoma shortly before 11 p.m. Wednesday, the FBI stated in a news release.

She was with Jacob Gardea, 23, of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

 

[Seattle1]

Not so much O/T but the whole Hania going to start the car and the Aunt saying no, from when I 1st read that I kind of felt it was a change of story so nobody would be in trouble for allowing a minor to start the car. I know this seems stupid now but I do recall on thread #1 when I read that it kind of felt like it was something they were hiding out of fear, it also seemed to be dropped quickly as well. JMO, not that it matters.

I recall a video news interview of Hania's 8 year old sister describing the abduction, and I believe the statement about Hadio being told NOT to take the keys attributed to the child. However, LE previously reported that warming the vehicle was routine. MOO
Lumberton mobile home residents concerned, scared after girl's kidnapping

 

[SkilledInsight]

TCintrigued

Dear Swanniee11,

Great insight! The F.B.I. has likely been using "geographic profiling".

Geographic Profiling :
"In relation to criminal activity, therefore, it follows that an offender has to know about a particular geographical area before he or she begins selecting crimes to commit; and where the offenders movement patterns intersect within this geographical area, will to a large extent determine where the crime takes place."

"Geographic profiling works on the premise that the location of a crime site can provide the police with vital information. It assesses and predicts the offender’s most likely place of residence, place of work, social venues and travel routes etc."


Geographic profiling is used by the F.B.I. It was developed using an algorithm:
How geographic profiling helps find serial criminals | WIRED UK

 

[Disturbed.]

Very sad outcome!! RIP Hania
The facebook live video is little confusing (to me anyway)
Police contacted the couple a little over a week ago asking for there CCTV footage for Nov 5 between 6-12. Why only Nov 5 why not every day until the police arrived? They were still actively looking for Hania and more than a week from finding her, why limit possible information and evidence?
The girl in the video said she still hadn't checked the footage, curiosity would have definitely gotten the better of me even if i was squinting while looking at it not knowing what i may see.

 

[SkilledInsight]

This brazen, bold, illogical killer has probably committed other acts of violence. Suspect is more than likely disturbed and impulsive.
FBI has taken interest with previous killings in Lumberton. Of note, videos were requested between November 5 and 8. My guess is that SUV had been spotted in near Wire Grass Rd. perhaps tire marks were discovered?

3 days before kidnapping armed robbery was reported on this Rd.

Kendrick Hunt, of Wiregrass Road in Lumberton, reported Thursday to the Robeson County Sheriff’s Office that he was the victim of armed robbery.