GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - # 7

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cluciano63 said:
So it sounds like the consensus is that she ran away? I am not sure I believe that.
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I really don't believe it. Her generation was so raised on SM, she'd be popping up somewhere. And if she just started over with a new alias, how many young people do you know willing to accept a friend request from someone with no SM footprint, who just made their profile yesterday and is "new to town?" That's automatically assumed to be some kind of scam or spam bot.

I hate to focus on something so seemingly trivial, but I really believe it's important.

I also think Abby is a smart girl but not to the extent of being able to leave zero trace of runaway plans. And if she really told nobody, and is somewhere with people who weren't expecting her, it really will only be a matter of time before someone recognizes her picture. That's why I agree that mainstream, urgent-toned coverage is incredibly important.

If she ran away, she got transportation from somebody. If those plans were completely verbal with no SM trace (which is hard to believe because the time/location etc would have to be memorized), it would have to be someone she was in routinely regular contact with prior to this. Someone she saw frequently in school or at work. And those people would have all been checked out. So it would be known if that person were also now missing, having gone with her, or having returned shortly after he disappearance, potentially with some bus/plane tickets or gas station receipts to explain. A "gone for several hours during that time period" alibi would be especially scrutinized. If she just got a ride to a station and purchased tickets herself with saved up money, there would be surveillance footage. Employees would be told to rack their brains for a cash-paying lone teenage traveler.

The only way around the above dilemma is if she was transported by someone she had never communicated with online and wasn't known to have interacted with regularly in person, because that person wouldn't have been checked out. I'm sure anyone who quit their jobs or moved right around that time period were. So either that person would also be suspiciously gone without a trace, or they're still in NC somewhere.. having risked a whole lot to help someone nobody even knew they were friends with runaway, having to see her crying mother plead for her return every day, holding this terrible secret that Abby is, in fact, okay.

So, what am I missing? Whose car would she have gotten into? Is there a scenario in which the driver only unwittingly helped her? Hitchhiking? Surely if a stranger picked her up they would've come forward, for fear of having been seen picking her up and to clear themselves of wrongdoing. That, to me, is the more feasible "left voluntarily but got into trouble" scenario.

Sorry to overanalyze vague logistics. I just remain optimistic that everyone makes mistakes in their attempts to deceive loved ones.
 
MamaJoJo said:
Personally, my theory about her disappearance and her current circumstance hasn't changed from the first week. However, we are all speculating and batting around possibilities based on information released in the press conferences. I don't think "runaway" is the general consensus amongst WSers but I hope we are all wrong.

I was struck by something Zenya said in her letter: "...that hope speaks louder than fear..." That's a very poignant phrase, IMO. I've been thinking a lot about Zenya's letter and what she (prehaps LE) chose to say. I've tried to put myself in her shoes and think about what I would want my daughter to hear. I've tried to imagine being Abigail, listening (as a runaway or a captive), and what I would want to hear from my mother. I have tried to put myself in the shoes of LE (assuming they are the puppeteers) to understand why they would want this message, the message that Abby most likely ran away, to be heard. The only thing I can conclude is that...I have no clue what to think. I would want to say something different, I would want to hear something different.

Do any of you feel this way, too? I'm not sure for Abby or Zenya's sake if parsing through this topic would be of any use. And, if Zenya wanted to say something different, I wouldn't want to upset her further. Just curious if anyone else has been thinking about this topic...
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The only way I can make sense of the messages both her parents have put out there is that LE believes that she is still alive, and that she is with someone (most likely an older male). My impression is that although they probably believe she was abducted against her will, they are trying to pave the way for the abductor to let her go, under the premise that she chose to run away with him, and now, by his letting her go, she is choosing to go home. If the abductor is somewhat emotionally or mentally challenged, this ploy may convince him that it is safe to let her free.

This is the only scenario that I can see in light of the messages, and the actions of LE. This does not agree with what I believe, but then again, I don't have any idea of the things LE has found out up to now.
 
In many other cases, when LE believes a teen girl has run off with an older male, we hear about it from the start. So I don't know how keeping something like quiet would help find her, it would be the main clue, a possible description, etc.

I find it hard to believe that an average, suburban middle-class teen has the mental or emotional resources to disappear for nearly two months, leaving no trail, even assuming she had the cash. She would not be accustomed to the "street" or hardships or going without her stuff. Same reason I do not believe Bryce Laspisa to be alive and in "hiding".

I do not believe LE has a suspect, a POI, or any real proof of what happened. For me, even though it is the most uncommon scenario, it seems like an abduction, whether stranger or someone she knew, much like Ali Lowitzer or Amber DuBois.
 
exactly where I am at with this one cluciano
 
The only way I would agree with the "she ran away" scenario, is that there was proof that she had run away previously.
 
Also, I would think that if she did have a plan to run off, she would of told the person she felt closest to. Most teen girls feel closest to their boyfriends.
 
Sometimes you have to go backwards in order to move forward. Am I here alone on this ?
 
How can we possibly form an opinion on what happened to Abby with no information?

What do we know? We know Abby was seen leaving school with her book bag and her cell phone and how she was dressed. We know two schoolmates saw her turn right and then...she was gone.

We don't know how far she made it that day. We don't know if in fact there was video film showing Abby walking or doing anything. We don't even know if she made it home that day before going missing.

So most of our conclusions are based on internet chat, police statements that say nothing and the pleadings of Dad and Mom to please come home.

An empire just can't make the call if he is blindfolded. Impossible!
 
Donna64 said:
Also, I would think that if she did have a plan to run off, she would of told the person she felt closest to. Most teen girls feel closest to their boyfriends.
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Well...how do we know she did or didn't tell them. Nobody is talking!
 
Why and how should anyone be "talking"? On the internet? To media? As long as anyone who knows her well has spoken to LE, I don't see what else they should be talking to, about her personal life. But JMO.
 
cluciano63 said:
Why and how should anyone be "talking"? On the internet? To media? As long as anyone who knows her well has spoken to LE, I don't see what else they should be talking to, about her personal life. But JMO.
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Nobody should be talking if they do not need the public's help in finding Abby.

However the subject this afternoon seems to be was she abducted or is she a runaway.

My point is/was with no information it's hard to say.
 
My question is why there is no police logs in the paper since the week AH disappeared? I remember reading in an article that another 14 year old girl needed emergency medical treatment at the same time on N/S road that day. They said there was no connection, but I'm wondering if there was?
Here's the article about the other 14 year old that day: http://northconwaydailysun.com/index.php/newsx/local-news/109539-hernandez-useme
 
honeybun1807 said:
Nobody should be talking if they do not need the public's help in finding Abby.

However the subject this afternoon seems to be was she abducted or is she a runaway.

My point is/was with no information it's hard to say.
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It's not just hard, it's impossible. So we have to kind of treat this as an abduction/runaway.
 
I wonder if there was a type of "catfish" thing going on. Where she was communicating with someone online, but that person, as presented, doesn't exist. Even with online communication, if the person was pretending to be someone they are not and posting from public places, then they couldn't give any info out about that person.

I don't know. Nothing seems to fit in this case. I have followed since the beginning, but I am pretty sure this is my first post on Abby. I just hope they find her. At this point, I think the chances are less that she is hiding out somewhere, but not knowing has to be torture for the family.
 
They seem to have stopped asking people to look for her phone. Or are they and I missed it.
 
I thought LE had said she had not run away or left home before?

Also they have made no mention of her leaving with another person.

My belief is they simply don't know. They can't share what they don't have. Since far more people leave on their own than there are abducted, it isn't completely out of the question for LE to lean towards runaway. LE likes crime scenes, signs of struggle, etc. before committing themselves to abduction, IMO, unless we are talking a young child.
 
LE said they couldn't confirm or deny the previous runaway claim about Abby and TN because it was a juvenile matter.

Her dad has/had a residence there at one point.

There's been mixed messages, for sure.

At one point, LE says its unlikely she ran away. Then, Dad publishes his letter to runaway Abby. Then, LE says no threat to N. Conway. Then, Mom publishes her letter to runaway Abby.

Did some evidence come in at some point, confirming the runaway theory?

I read a statistic that most runaways spend 1 month to 1 year away from home.




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Didn't mom confirm that she hadn't run away before?
 
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