NH NH - Maura Murray, 21, Haverhill, 9 Feb 2004 - #11

[jc8825]

One piece of evidence would be that if Maura had taken I-93 north as opposed to I-91, she wouldn't have had time enough to get to that point on 112.

 

[BillNH]

The officer's opinion is not evidence; it is based on evidence. That brings us back to my original question: "[W]hat evidence is there that Maura was driving east when she crashed?"

Your assumption, if correct, would certainly answer my question. What is the basis of your assumption?

Actually your original question was " is there a plausible theory on how the NH accident happened", and that's the one I answered to.

I see no reason to ignore the officers conclusion based on the evidence he found at the scene immediately following the accident. If he were doing a cursory investigation, the easy explination would be "she was heading west (since her car was already facing that way) and that she veered off the left side of the roadway and struck some trees causing the damage to the front drivers side". Since he did not conclude this, it stands to reason that he did an investigation based on the evidence he saw at the scene which led him to the conclusion she was heading east. I see no reason to question this since he was at the scene at the best time to gather that evidence. Some will say there was a conspiracy afoot and the PD was complacent or involved in the disappearance but that is utter nonsense until some sort of supporting evidence points that way beyond wild imaginings.

 

[Not Without Peril]

I see no reason to ignore the officers conclusion based on the evidence he found at the scene immediately following the accident.

I agree. I would not have uploaded the officer's report if I wished to ignore it. Quite the opposite -- instead of ignoring the officer's conclusion, I wish to discuss it. In particular, I wish to identify and discuss any evidence supporting or negating that conclusion.

If he were doing a cursory investigation, the easy explination would be "she was heading west (since her car was already facing that way) and that she veered off the left side of the roadway and struck some trees causing the damage to the front drivers side". Since he did not conclude this, it stands to reason that he did an investigation based on the evidence he saw at the scene which led him to the conclusion she was heading east.

The Westmans have witnessed many accidents at that curve. In each of these accidents, the driver had been headed east. Therefore, I would argue, the "easy" conclusion -- the one that requires no analysis of the scene -- is that Maura had been headed east.

I see no reason to question [Smith's conclusion] since he was at the scene at the best time to gather that evidence. Some will say there was a conspiracy afoot and the PD was complacent or involved in the disappearance but that is utter nonsense until some sort of supporting evidence points that way beyond wild imaginings.

You may view Smith as infallible; I view him as a human being. My desire to analyze his conclusion does not make me a conspiracy theorist.

 

[BillNH]

Yes of course he is human, he is not an accident reconstructionist, it was dark, he had a missing driver to be concerned with, thus his conclusion is not concrete. However, since the records are yet unreleased and the evidence he used to draw his conclusion is not available to the public, if it even exists at all, I would say that conclusively, no evidence is known to exist that she was traveling west. I'm not sure why you asked the question because you know this also, unless you are looking for a yet unknown witness to come forward on the pages of websluths. Anything else is just more speculation, not evidence.

 

[anya]

Fred wasn't unreachable. In fact he was staying at a Homestead Suites/Extended Stay Hotel in Bridgeport Connecticut and worked normal hours like 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.

Pardon if I sound rude and a bit ignorant, but how do you know this for fact? Can you provide a link or source? TIA!

 

[dogperson]

This article in the Boston Magazine states that Maura packed toiletries, a week's worth of clothing, and exercise gear. I think this lends even more evidence against the suicide theory. Why bother to take all that stuff if you plan to kill yourself? http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/article/2014/01/28/maura-murray/

 

[stephsb]

I first found out about Maura's case on Disappeared, and it has fascinated me ever since. After reading more about the case online and in forums, I agree that a lot of the evidence could fit with multiple theories put forward (I think that's why the case is so fascinating to begin with) and all of the evidence is circumstantial, my initial feeling was that she was going to the White Mountains area to commit suicide, and that still is my strongest feeling. I definitely see the arguments for other theories (other than the theory that she's alive and living in Canada somewhere- I think that's absolutely absurd) but suicide was IMO her ultimate reason for taking off, evidenced by her behavior before her disappearance:

1) The breakdown catatonic state at work- this is what I believe set off her disappearance. I don't believe she hit Vasi (I just haven't seen any evidence she left work, and even if she had, the window would still be incredibly narrow for her to get away, hit him, and get back) rather, I think the phone call with her boyfriend was the cause of her distress. He was the last person to talk to her (from 1207-1214) before her supervisor found her w. her phone out on the desk, a rules violation she ignored, due to her concern for the state she found MM in. She was so upset she escorted her back to her room and have her things packed up for her- clearly she was not in a great place emotionally.

2) The accident on the way to visit FM at the hotel- clearly there was something she needed to tell him about that she was so upset about she couldn't wait until morning to discuss it, even though it was 330AM and she had been drinking. If alcohol had been the prominent reason for the accident, the arresting officer would have certainly given her a breathalyzer- it was 330AM on a college campus. The only way I can see him not worrying about giving her a DUI is if he was more concerned about something else- like her emotional state? She clearly didn't sleep after she got to the hotel (evidenced by her phone records) and she called BR at 345AM his time (he was in OK) to wake him up to discuss an accident that had not injured her and that he had no idea had even happened. FM also recalls her being very upset, which he attributed to the accident, but could very easily have been something else.

3) The state she left campus in- This is the most important to me. None of her behavior leading up to her disappearance would lead anyone to believe that she intended on returning to Amherst. Furthermore, her behavior made it so she did not even intend to return to her life, at least in the same way she had left it. She lied about a death in the family, something that would likely be checked up on at some point (like when she returned) and she would be answering questions about. She sent an email to BR saying she didn't feel like talking, but promising to call him later (which she never did...other than the voicemail). What she did instead was print an email where he confessed to cheating on her, leaving it on top of a bunch of boxes where she had packed all the contents of her dorm room. She drained her bank account, bought $40 dollars worth of alcohol, and took off to some unknown location in the White Mountains area (a location she clearly loved) with a book about people dying in the White Mountains and items of sentimental value, in a car that was so unreliable she allegedly was barely driving it around campus.

4) Her behavior after the crash in NH- I understand not wanting the police to find out she was drinking and driving, but by Atwood's accounts she was not incoherent when she talked to him. It was dark, she was on an unfamiliar stretch of highway with a difficult turn, and there was snow on the ground...her accident very likely could have been due to conditions, which they may have believed. She didn't have to follow BA back to his house (if she was afraid of him) all she had to do was ask him to call police, or have gone with him and called AAA from his porch or something. Or she could have asked to use a phone at another house in the area if she wouldn't go with him. If she was convinced she would get a DUI (which she very likely may have been) why not go back to the gas station less than a mile away, which she would have passed, following the road, and figure out what to do next there? She knew it would be warm, she knew there would be people, and it would buy her time. Basically, had she wanted help, it would have been there. Instead of getting help, she lied to BA, pleaded with him not to call police, and then ran off, taking only her backpack and alcohol. Her cell phone didn't get reception, she was unfamiliar w. the area, she was not dressed for conditions, and it was nighttime in a rural area. She was a hiker and familiar with the White Mountains, she had to know she wouldn't last the night in those conditions, and that she would be extremely vulnerable. If she refused help from BA, I see no reason why she would have gotten into a car with a random stranger bound for some unknown destination- she didn't grab her sentimental items, she didn't have a car capable of making it to her final destination, and she would have no way to explain to her family or BR about why she was in Haverhill with a wrecked car when she was supposed to be at Amherst. She couldn't get to a condo and she couldn't go back to her family, so she grabbed her alcohol and took off into the woods.

5) The last piece of evidence I find compelling is FM's behavior IMMEDIATELY after the crash. FM introduced suicide in the White Mountains, it was the FIRST thing he allegedly claimed. FM was the one who insisted on getting in touch with detectives immediately, that he had urgent info, and FM was the one who went on TV, begging MM to come home, that no matter what was bothering her, they could work thru it. BR initially did the same thing, saying that he loved her, begging her to come back- it wasn't until later that he gave those hollow statements to reporters that were discussed earlier in this thread- statements where he referred to her in the past tense- it wasn't because he was involved, or uncaring, or hiding her real location, it was because he didn't believe she was alive anymore...just like FM didn't. He wanted the focus to remain on a LOCAL dirtbag and foul play, because he knew the cops would investigate the area, and that's where he believed she was.

JMO- I realize it doesn't explain all the evidence, and it does leave a lot of questions unanswered, but I do think it explains why the families may be viewed as uncooperative, and why BR's mother continually insisted on how "great" their relationship was, and how they were going to be engaged, while her sister initially said their relationship had problems. His mother wants the media to portray their relationship as wonderful, so they don't focus on the fact that MM left an email from BR on top of boxes in her packed up dorm room, which discussed his infidelity- she didn't leave that email there for herself, she left it there to leave a message for the next person to enter the dorm room.

 

[jc8825]

I will disagree and state that the least likely theory is that Maura was suicidal.

1) Maura's state at work when her supervisor found her and ultimately escorted her to her room was most likely a ruse to end her work shift early. Why would any conversation with Rausch have upset Maura to the point of distress? Maura most likely cared for Rausch, but she had seen other men so it is easy to assume that she could have moved on from Rausch fairly easily. The supervisor never arranged to have Maura's belongings packed for her. I'm not sure where you got that information. It is unknown whether Maura actually had packed to leave the dorm, or more likely, if she simply failed to unpack upon the return to campus following the holiday break.

2) The MVA involving Fred's Toyota was due to Maura's inattention approaching the intersection of N. Hadley and Roosevelt. We must assume that Maura was not impaired from drinking as Ofc. Ruddock did not administer a sobriety test at the scene. This was either due to his belief that Maura was not intoxicated (he had no probable cause to suspect) or he simply failed to follow protocol. We cannot know at this point if Maura was intoxicated that morning resulting in a crash. If Ruddock had suspected an issue with Maura's emotional state, he would not simply allow her to leave the scene. If Maura was admittedly suicidal Ruddock would have had the responsibility to turn her over to a local hospital via paramedics. Maura did eventually sleep at the hotel as she was asleep when Fred woke up in the morning. Maura did make phone calls from Fred's phone, as Maura had left her phone in her dorm room. The series of events in the hotel have changed with several statements given by Fred Murray so it is unlikely it will be known which account is the truth.

3) Maura left campus with clothes, running gear, textbooks, personal sentimental items, toiletries, the book she was reading at the time "Not Without Peril" (which, by the way, is not simply about death but also about triumph), and her cell phone and charger. These are items that one packs for a vacation. If Maura was suicidal she would not have needed any of that. I have had a suicide in the family, known others with suicides in the family, and investigated suicides and can tell you that her actions and her choice of belongings do not suggest suicide. Maura emailed her professors and work supervisors referencing a "family emergency", NOT a death in the family. That would not be something that could be researched, nor should it have been. Family business should remain private. Maura would not be obligated to answer family related questions in this manner. Maura emailed Rausch due to him being unreachable by phone due to his military job on Fort Sill. Why would Maura have promised to call if she had no intention whatsoever? She wouldn't have had to send the email either if she was planning to end her life within the next 48 hours. If by "the voicemail" you mean the "sobbing" voicemail left on Rausch's phone; it was from a Red Cross employee arranging for his temporary leave. Maura did not call Rausch on that Monday. The printed email message from Rausch was from years prior and it was likely in her belongings at UMASS, but on top might be a stretch, but even if it was so, that would not be an indicator of much. As I stated before, it is unknown if Maura had packed her belongings before her departure on Monday or if she simply failed to do so upon return following break. Maura did nearly empty her bank account on Monday, but she was due to have paychecks that week, which would have given her her spending money. More likely is that Maura took out what she had then in order to get a place to stay for a few days out of town. If Maura had direct deposit, her paychecks would have been deposited that week, and she could have pulled out more money from any ATM.

The reliability of the Saturn is questionable. The entire narrative of a poorly running vehicle came from Fred Murray AFTER Maura's disappearance. No friend of Maura's could attest to her vehicle not running properly, other that the fact that Maura did get rides from other students to her clinicals, but maybe Maura didn't want to spend money on fuel for the car or maintenance, and in passing perhaps Maura mentioned to those giving her a ride that her car was running poorly. In fact the Saturn had passed Massachusetts inspection (safety and emissions) in October of 2003, a mere 4 months prior to her disappearance. That Saturn would NOT have passed that inspection if so much as a CEL was on, much less with visible smoke. No one believes that a rag in a tailpipe will clear smoke, much less tell your daughter to do so. The Saturn is still in the possession of the New Hampshire State Police and initially Fred Murray wanted the car crushed and destroyed. Due to the rag in the tailpipe, the exhaust was removed for testing, but other than that the Saturn was NEVER tested for it's running condition by ANYONE. It cannot be proven that the Saturn was unreliable or in poor condition. On the contrary, from appearances, the car looked good for being nearly eight years old, and the car ran perfectly fine for hours on end into rural NH from Massachusetts.

4) Maura was obligated to not get into any criminal trouble in order to get her credit card fraud complaint dismissed. If the fraud complaint had gone to a charge and a conviction, Maura would have been booted from the nursing program at UMASS due to her unviability to obtain a nursing license. Now a DUI charge and likely ultimate conviction would have constituted a failure on Maura's part to maintain good behavior and therefore would have been charged for the fraud. This gave Maura the incentive to not make contact with the police, especially after a MVA. She would have been given a sobriety test on scene. If she had been drinking on the drive to NH, she likely would have failed the test and been arrested. The reasoning behind not going back to the gas station is that the police would likely have seen her and initiated contact on the side of the roadway. Her goal at that time was to avoid the police. It was nighttime in rural NH, and it was bright with starlight and moonlight. The night was clear and actually mild for the location and time of year. There would have been ample light to jog down the road. Perhaps she thought she was closer to the next town or to the next major Interstate highway. Either way Maura likely figured that she would handle the rest if she could avoid the police at that time. Maura grabbed the items that were easy to carry and get away from the scene as quickly as possible. She knew that police were on the way, that someone, if not multiple residents had called to report the MVA. She had to act fast and make hasty decisions, this would account for not taking sentimental items. Maura likely figured that her car would be towed and she would claim it at a later time, which is why she secured the vehicle before she departed. Where is your evidence that "she didn't have a car capable of making it to her final destination"? The car made it perfectly well to the crash site, so if Maura had negotiated the turn, it likely would have made the remainder of the drive. She could have explained being away from UMASS as that she wanted to get away from everything for a couple of days. I don't know why that would be difficult to explain to one's family, it's not like Maura was due for a beating or something. Maura was an adult and capable of her own decisions. If you are sure that Maura went into the woods, where is the evidence? No footprints were found in the vicinity leading into the woods from off of the roadway on multiple searches. No new snow had fallen between the crash and the initial searches. What about a credible witness that saw a female matching Maura's description 4-5 miles from the crash site EB on 112? If Maura had made it that far, would she have just given up and headed into the woods?

5) Fred Murray, his actions, his statements, his recollections, and his theories have been all over the place. Fred Murray can't or won't even recall the exact events on the Saturday prior where he travelled to Amherst. He can't account for the money he pulled out of multiple ATMs, or where the money went or is today. Fred Murray's cell phone went dark from between ~ 1820-0930 on the Monday evening/Tuesday morning following the disappearance. Enough time by the way for Fred to have driven from his home to the area where Maura crashed and back before work the next day. Fred never attempted to call Maura when she failed to call him Monday night regarding the crash forms. Fred Murray refuses to discuss the history of Maura or of the days leading up to the disappearance. It is all relevant to locating Maura dead or alive.

I just don't put much stock into the email in the dorm room at all. I hardly think that or anything else suggests suicide.

 

[Vox_Veritas_JT]

Two well argued posts above. The problems will always be subjective for this case. i.e How one interprets the evidence - entirely subjective by dint of being ambiguous. Two of the most ambiguous clues will always be (until the case is solved), for me, the amount of alcohol purchased/taken by Maura and the notorious rag in the exhaust.

Anyone know How Mr Renner is getting along with his book? Is there a publication date in sight? That at least might draw the media spotlight back on the case.

 

[scoops]

Suicide is the only theory that follows the actions and words of the people truly involved in this case. Every other theory presented requires a lot of unconnected dots that require hypotheticals to try and tie them together.

Maura's father's first thoughts (when being surprised about hearing his car was found abandoned in NH) were that his daughter came to that area to harm herself. That right there weighs much more heavily then some detective work by some professionals/amateur sleuths years later.

Fact is Maura was at the entrance of the white mountains in a "unreliable car" right at pitch black dark on a Monday night in February (hauling around a book about misadventures in the very same white mountains, with a car's contents that included a plentiful amount of alcohol not to mention Tylenol PM.

Again that is not hypotheticals, them there are facts.

The more glamourous, CSI tv show route to take would be that Maura ran into some famous serial killer or Maura planned some huge "fool the world" reinvention of herself in a new country and she was just carrying out her plan like clockwork.

But reality (as cold and unromantic as it is) is that Maura wasn't in a good place at the time she went missing and the actions/inactions of law enforcement, the desperation (early on that turned to anger) from Maura's father ... each point to the same conclusion, that Maura went missing (on her own free will in the white mountains) and after the first few days, not much was left to be done.

Maura did not have a week's worth of clothing packed up (that was family spin fed to the media along with the mentioning of the textbooks).

And who takes a vacation that includes a cocktail mix of alcohol and Tylenol pm?

 

[jc8825]

Suicide is not the only conclusion that can be drawn without "unconnected dots" or "hypotheticals".

Fred Murray is anything but a credible source of information. His initial theory was likely a knee jerk reaction to the situation. Maura's actions do not necessarily point to a suicide. I don't put much, if any, weight in Fred Murray's statements, at least until he chooses to tell the truth regarding the days prior to Maura's disappearance and generally stops refusing to answer pertinent questions and inquiries.

There is no fact that Maura was in an "unreliable car" nor was the night in question "pitch black". The book that Maura happened to have in her possession was a book that she had had for a good while and even had it with her during her Christmas break. That proves nothing. Maura did have a good amount of alcohol, but nothing that could in and of itself cause death. The alcohol selections indicated more of a desire to make mixed drinks, not to commit suicide. Further, the Tylenol PM is a sleep aid and pain reliever, not very capable of death. Maura was a nursing student and likely had finished pharmacology, in which she would have studied truly deadly drugs and substances, and would have even had access to these drugs during her clinical rotations. Maura had a history of theft, so if she really wanted to commit suicide, you don't think she would have taken something that could do the job easily and without pain? Maybe she was a masochist.

You have presented little in the way of "facts".

You know nothing of the emotional state of Maura Murray leading up to the disappearance. Maura did have clothes packed up and had textbooks of some type in the vehicle. There is no indication of family spin regarding this. There are even family photos taken of the possessions that were recovered from the Saturn.

As far as a vacation with alcohol and Tylenol, probably anyone that is planning to drink a bit and has or could have pain (perhaps Maura was menstruating at the time) or an inability to sleep. I know that I have trouble sleeping if I drink. Whatever Maura's motivations to have brought alcohol and Tylenol with her for her trip are her own. Maura obviously did not take the Tylenol with her when she left the scene, so it is really irrelevant in any case.

Your theory of suicide is just that, your THEORY. There is no irrefutable evidence that singularly suggests suicide. There was no letter, no reports of demeanor or emotional changes, no drop in academic achievement, no history of depression or other emotional issues, no prior suicide attempts, and no indication of drug use or abuse, or physical or emotional abuse.

 

[snowleopard]

Hi Vox,

I emailed James Renner and he said the book "Should be out in 2015".

 

[justagirl247]

for me i find it hard to believe that she could have committed suicide and still no body has been found it's not like they had no idea where in the world to look ... they had a general area and from all accounts i have heard it was search extensively... that's not to say it isnt possible but imo unlikely... unfortunately without more evidence i'm affraid all any of us are doing is guessing.

 

[scoops]

Suicide is not the only conclusion that can be drawn without "unconnected dots" or "hypotheticals".

Fred Murray is anything but a credible source of information. His initial theory was likely a knee jerk reaction to the situation. Maura's actions do not necessarily point to a suicide. I don't put much, if any, weight in Fred Murray's statements, at least until he chooses to tell the truth regarding the days prior to Maura's disappearance and generally stops refusing to answer pertinent questions and inquiries.

There is no fact that Maura was in an "unreliable car" nor was the night in question "pitch black". The book that Maura happened to have in her possession was a book that she had had for a good while and even had it with her during her Christmas break. That proves nothing. Maura did have a good amount of alcohol, but nothing that could in and of itself cause death. The alcohol selections indicated more of a desire to make mixed drinks, not to commit suicide. Further, the Tylenol PM is a sleep aid and pain reliever, not very capable of death. Maura was a nursing student and likely had finished pharmacology, in which she would have studied truly deadly drugs and substances, and would have even had access to these drugs during her clinical rotations. Maura had a history of theft, so if she really wanted to commit suicide, you don't think she would have taken something that could do the job easily and without pain? Maybe she was a masochist.

You have presented little in the way of "facts".

You know nothing of the emotional state of Maura Murray leading up to the disappearance. Maura did have clothes packed up and had textbooks of some type in the vehicle. There is no indication of family spin regarding this. There are even family photos taken of the possessions that were recovered from the Saturn.

As far as a vacation with alcohol and Tylenol, probably anyone that is planning to drink a bit and has or could have pain (perhaps Maura was menstruating at the time) or an inability to sleep. I know that I have trouble sleeping if I drink. Whatever Maura's motivations to have brought alcohol and Tylenol with her for her trip are her own. Maura obviously did not take the Tylenol with her when she left the scene, so it is really irrelevant in any case.

Your theory of suicide is just that, your THEORY. There is no irrefutable evidence that singularly suggests suicide. There was no letter, no reports of demeanor or emotional changes, no drop in academic achievement, no history of depression or other emotional issues, no prior suicide attempts, and no indication of drug use or abuse, or physical or emotional abuse.

you are twisting facts to stray away from your own beliefs.


You: "Fred Murray is anything but a credible source of information."

That may be true. But he really did believe his daughter came to the white mountains to do personal harm to herself. The lead investigator of the case has stated that the first words out of Fred's mouth were just that. We don't need fred's credibility to prove or disprove what he believed when it can be verified from an independent source.

And being that fred spent the entire weekend - just a day before Maura went missing - with his daughter, there is no question in my mind that he would have true insight into the emotional state of his own daughter.

You: "The book that Maura happened to have in her possession was a book that she had had for a good while and even had it with her during her Christmas break."

So I am confused. On one hand you are saying don't trust fred (and family) because they haven't been truthful, yet you fall right along the family spin line that has been given about Maura having possession of that book.

Truth be told. Maura's family "Spokespeople" have come out with multiple excuses for why Maura had that book. One excuse was that fred had wanted all his kids to read that book, and he passed it down to one kid who would read it and then pass it on to the other and it just happened to be Maura's turn to have the book at the time she went missing.

In other instances, family "spokespeople" have said it was Maura's favorite book and she had it with her at all times. It can't be both.

Truth is, family "spokespeople" have been very defensive about why Maura had that book with her at the time she went missing ... Why is that?


As far as clothes packed. Maura had a sweater, a pair of sweat pants and a blanket packed from what I have been able to gather to go with some gym clothes (my guess is she kept running clothes in her car to begin with, but that is just a guess) and some undergarments with a spare pair of running shoes.


If we want to breakaway and look at other theories.

The abduction theory holds no credible factual information to even consider it.

Police (From various departments) have publically stated for years that in Maura's case, there are no signs of foul play.

To go with an abduction theory, you literally have to introduce "Hypothetical" situations.


If You want to look at a tandem partner meeting up with Maura (which is just plain dumb)

once again, with no evidence whatsoever, you literally have to introduce hypothetical situations to try and make that theory hold any kind of water.

With a suicide theory, there is actual substance there.

Yes if you don't want to believe it, because it's too depressing to think about, you can sit here and explain away all the red flags, but a suicide theory does not come from hypotheticals.

The action of Maura's father, the defensive nature of Maura's family spokespeople concerning anything that would make Maura look suicidal, coupled with the inaction of police to go after a serial killer all help lead to a very specific outcome concerning what is truly believed happened to Maura whether it is said that way to the public or not.

In the most simple terminology you have a person whose life wasn't going very well at the time, who took off into the wilderness by herself with alcohol at night time hours away from her residence (without wanting anyone to know).

Without getting into any other details, if all you had to work from was the above sentence, which outcome for that person most likely fits. Suicide, party-time with friends, or a run in with a serial killer?

 

[Lolacat]

I agree Scoops, and in fact, one of the ways in which Fred's credibility has been called into question is by the VERY fact that his initial gut reaction was that she killed herself. Then, he did the public appeal to her to come home, saying they could work it out if she was in trouble and THEN he did a complete 180 and concocted the local dirtbag theory which he has stuck to for the last few years. His very FIRST reaction to the news was that she had harmed herself/was in trouble of some kind. Then, he spent the next few years trying to convince us otherwise and dismissing her last few days.

I would also argue that 2 car accidents in the space of 2 days, both with alcohol involved, indicates a certain level of emotional disturbance being present. Maura's friends have publicaly stated that Maura was extremely secretive and therefore might not necessarily have shared her feelings with them. They also stated in the Disappeared programme that in the past, Maura would just take off for a few days when something was bothering her so her leaving town fits a pattern she follows when she is upset.

Regarding the lack of a suicide note- that indicates nothing to me. Ive worked in psychiatry- in both inpatient and community settings for the last decade and I can count on one hand the number of people who have left a note. Its not as common as people assume it is.

 

[scoops]

I agree Scoops, and in fact, one of the ways in which Fred's credibility has been called into question is by the VERY fact that his initial gut reaction was that she killed herself. Then, he did the public appeal to her to come home, saying they could work it out if she was in trouble and THEN he did a complete 180 and concocted the local dirtbag theory which he has stuck to for the last few years. His very FIRST reaction to the news was that she had harmed herself/was in trouble of some kind. Then, he spent the next few years trying to convince us otherwise and dismissing her last few days.

I would also argue that 2 car accidents in the space of 2 days, both with alcohol involved, indicates a certain level of emotional disturbance being present. Maura's friends have publicaly stated that Maura was extremely secretive and therefore might not necessarily have shared her feelings with them. They also stated in the Disappeared programme that in the past, Maura would just take off for a few days when something was bothering her so her leaving town fits a pattern she follows when she is upset.

Regarding the lack of a suicide note- that indicates nothing to me. Ive worked in psychiatry- in both inpatient and community settings for the last decade and I can count on one hand the number of people who have left a note. Its not as common as people assume it is.

To add to your post, I think in her original plans, it is possible that Maura may have planned on writing a note. She did have a blank notebook with her and enough lodging money for one night. I contend that her unusual departure time from her dorm (which she would've known would've have caused her to arrive in the white mountains at night time as opposed to day-time hours) may be a sign that she did have original plans of lodging for one night and then doing whatever she was up there to do at the crack of dawn.

The second wreck (which most believe to be unplanned) could've very easily messed up her plans or ACCELERATED her plans.


Now (and this is not directed at you Lolacat), but a question to all:

Is it a fact that Maura may have planned to write a final note for family/boyfriend or that Maura took her own life that night?

Of Course it's not a fact, it is simply speculation.

But my whole point (when it comes to theories about what happened to Maura) is that to speculate that Maura may have written a note and then took her own life (because Maura had the materials to accomplish both) is a far cry difference then introducing things such as boogeymen and tandem partners which there are no credible evidence to suggest either, therefore making them hypothetical situations.


If one believes Maura was abducted and then killed, then you are completely going off introduced hypotheticals that lead to a conclusion.

If one believes Maura was partnering up with someone to flee the country and start a new life, then once again you are doing so by introducing something to the equation that there is no evidence of that even exists.

If one believes Maura took her own life (there may not be 100 percent proof) but there are plenty of red flags that can be interpreted as a person in trouble (physically and mentally) and in a position to do harm to their self.

That is not introducing hypotheticals, that is simply speculating by adding/concluding on to what is known.

That is why the suicide theory (IMO) stands above the other theories.

Show me a boogey man or show me a friend in the same vincinity of Maura the night she went missing, and the suicide theory begins to lose a lot of traction.

 

[trenchmouth]

To add to your post, I think in her original plans, it is possible that Maura may have planned on writing a note. She did have a blank notebook with her and enough lodging money for one night. I contend that her unusual departure time from her dorm (which she would've known would've have caused her to arrive in the white mountains at night time as opposed to day-time hours) may be a sign that she did have original plans of lodging for one night and then doing whatever she was up there to do at the crack of dawn.

The second wreck (which most believe to be unplanned) could've very easily messed up her plans or ACCELERATED her plans.


Now (and this is not directed at you Lolacat), but a question to all:

Is it a fact that Maura may have planned to write a final note for family/boyfriend or that Maura took her own life that night?

Of Course it's not a fact, it is simply speculation.

But my whole point (when it comes to theories about what happened to Maura) is that to speculate that Maura may have written a note and then took her own life (because Maura had the materials to accomplish both) is a far cry difference then introducing things such as boogeymen and tandem partners which there are no credible evidence to suggest either, therefore making them hypothetical situations.


If one believes Maura was abducted and then killed, then you are completely going off introduced hypotheticals that lead to a conclusion.

If one believes Maura was partnering up with someone to flee the country and start a new life, then once again you are doing so by introducing something to the equation that there is no evidence of that even exists.

If one believes Maura took her own life (there may not be 100 percent proof) but there are plenty of red flags that can be interpreted as a person in trouble (physically and mentally) and in a position to do harm to their self.

That is not introducing hypotheticals, that is simply speculating by adding/concluding on to what is known.

That is why the suicide theory (IMO) stands above the other theories.

Show me a boogey man or show me a friend in the same vincinity of Maura the night she went missing, and the suicide theory begins to lose a lot of traction.

Good analysis, I've said all along, like others, that it is most probable she committed suicide. There should have been more search parties in the White Mountains at the time of her disappearance.

 

[stephsb]

I tend to agree that her initial plan was to stay somewhere in the White Mountains area (at a condo, hotel, or whatever) and commit suicide there. I think the car accident accelerated her plans/left her with no other options. If one wants to discount FM as a credible witness (which would be completely logical, based on his statements) you are left with very few facts, most of which support the suicide theory. As I stated earlier, the reason I tend to believe she did not intend on returning to Amherst are due to the state she left campus in. Let’s believe that she was headed up to some unknown location to take a week vacation and “escape” from her current situation (whatever it may have been). Let’s further assume she intended to carry out a normal conversation with BR that night, and follow up with her father in filling out the insurance forms from her prior accident. That leaves the question unanswered:

What would have been the purpose of packing up her entire room, and, furthermore, leaving a printed out old email from BR where he confesses to cheating on her? If she intended on returning to her dorm, why leave it like that- so she could be the one to find the email?

As for the suggestion that the email was irrelevant, and likely just packed up with the rest of her things, how many old emails do you print off and pack up on the top of your things, particularly old emails involving painful subjects? What would have been the purpose of keeping and printing an email like that, if not to send a message? This was a guy she was supposedly to become engaged to (according to his family) why would she keep that email around, period? It makes no sense.

Obviously, that all hinges on the second accident not happening. The second accident changed everything. After the second accident left her car in a condition that was no longer drivable (both airbags deployed, the windshield was cracked, and it suffered significant damage to the front…plus it was stuck in a snow bank) she had two options- accept police help, or flee. You can argue all you want that “it wasn’t pitch black” and “the conditions weren’t that bad” but you can’t change the facts- it was nighttime, in a rural area of NH that, to our knowledge, MM was unfamiliar with, and temperatures were below freezing. Combine that w. the fact that she had been drinking, she had no cell phone reception, and she fled not w. survival gear of any sort, but MORE alcohol, and her chances of long term survival aren’t too high. I understand her instinct being to flee the scene to avoid a DUI, which would jeopardize her nursing career, but if she cared about her nursing career, why was she drinking and driving in NH in the first place? She was supposedly on some sort of probation for credit card fraud, yet she lies to her professors about why she’s skipping classes so she can take off to some unknown destination with open containers of alcohol in her car? If she cared about her nursing career, she would have been at Amherst, attending her nursing classes…not drinking and driving, by herself, in NH. Even if she had escaped a DUI by fleeing, she’d still be facing open container violations and leaving the scene of an accident, as well as her father being alerted to her accident, since the car was in his name. This would also put her nursing career in jeopardy, plus leave her with a LOT of explaining to do. Rather than deal with that, she disappears and is never heard from again. Her father FM and boyfriend BR spend the next few days pleading for her to come back- that is significant, regardless of their inconsistencies- they don’t plead for a LOCAL DIRTBAG to give her back…they plead for HER to come back, so they can fix whatever was wrong. FM says she went up into the White Mountains to die like an old squaw. Then he does a complete 180 and cooks up his local dirtbag theory. If he believed, from the very beginning, that a dirtbag had taken MM, why beg for her to come back “so they can fix whatever was wrong”. Why would anything have been wrong, she was essentially being held against her will by some dirtbag…nothing else leading up to it would have mattered at that point. He would have pleaded for the dirtbag to give her back, or keep her alive. He knew what was wrong that they needed to fix and he knew if he told the truth about her emotional state that last week in Amherst the police, who already didn’t suspect foul play, would definitely not suspect foul play, and attention would be taken off the case. He didn’t want that, so instead, he attempts to explain away everything happening prior to her disappearance as “insignificant.”

I won’t rule out abduction (assuming she decided to get in the car with a random stranger to some unknown destination) or dying from an accident or the elements while hiding from police, but that doesn’t explain why she was in NH in the first place. Until that can explain why she was in NH and why she left Amherst the way she did, suicide is always going to look most probable, based on the actual facts.

 

[trenchmouth]

I tend to agree that her initial plan was to stay somewhere in the White Mountains area (at a condo, hotel, or whatever) and commit suicide there. I think the car accident accelerated her plans/left her with no other options. If one wants to discount FM as a credible witness (which would be completely logical, based on his statements) you are left with very few facts, most of which support the suicide theory. As I stated earlier, the reason I tend to believe she did not intend on returning to Amherst are due to the state she left campus in. Let’s believe that she was headed up to some unknown location to take a week vacation and “escape” from her current situation (whatever it may have been). Let’s further assume she intended to carry out a normal conversation with BR that night, and follow up with her father in filling out the insurance forms from her prior accident. That leaves the question unanswered:

What would have been the purpose of packing up her entire room, and, furthermore, leaving a printed out old email from BR where he confesses to cheating on her? If she intended on returning to her dorm, why leave it like that- so she could be the one to find the email?

As for the suggestion that the email was irrelevant, and likely just packed up with the rest of her things, how many old emails do you print off and pack up on the top of your things, particularly old emails involving painful subjects? What would have been the purpose of keeping and printing an email like that, if not to send a message? This was a guy she was supposedly to become engaged to (according to his family) why would she keep that email around, period? It makes no sense.

Obviously, that all hinges on the second accident not happening. The second accident changed everything. After the second accident left her car in a condition that was no longer drivable (both airbags deployed, the windshield was cracked, and it suffered significant damage to the front…plus it was stuck in a snow bank) she had two options- accept police help, or flee. You can argue all you want that “it wasn’t pitch black” and “the conditions weren’t that bad” but you can’t change the facts- it was nighttime, in a rural area of NH that, to our knowledge, MM was unfamiliar with, and temperatures were below freezing. Combine that w. the fact that she had been drinking, she had no cell phone reception, and she fled not w. survival gear of any sort, but MORE alcohol, and her chances of long term survival aren’t too high. I understand her instinct being to flee the scene to avoid a DUI, which would jeopardize her nursing career, but if she cared about her nursing career, why was she drinking and driving in NH in the first place? She was supposedly on some sort of probation for credit card fraud, yet she lies to her professors about why she’s skipping classes so she can take off to some unknown destination with open containers of alcohol in her car? If she cared about her nursing career, she would have been at Amherst, attending her nursing classes…not drinking and driving, by herself, in NH. Even if she had escaped a DUI by fleeing, she’d still be facing open container violations and leaving the scene of an accident, as well as her father being alerted to her accident, since the car was in his name. This would also put her nursing career in jeopardy, plus leave her with a LOT of explaining to do. Rather than deal with that, she disappears and is never heard from again. Her father FM and boyfriend BR spend the next few days pleading for her to come back- that is significant, regardless of their inconsistencies- they don’t plead for a LOCAL DIRTBAG to give her back…they plead for HER to come back, so they can fix whatever was wrong. FM says she went up into the White Mountains to die like an old squaw. Then he does a complete 180 and cooks up his local dirtbag theory. If he believed, from the very beginning, that a dirtbag had taken MM, why beg for her to come back “so they can fix whatever was wrong”. Why would anything have been wrong, she was essentially being held against her will by some dirtbag…nothing else leading up to it would have mattered at that point. He would have pleaded for the dirtbag to give her back, or keep her alive. He knew what was wrong that they needed to fix and he knew if he told the truth about her emotional state that last week in Amherst the police, who already didn’t suspect foul play, would definitely not suspect foul play, and attention would be taken off the case. He didn’t want that, so instead, he attempts to explain away everything happening prior to her disappearance as “insignificant.”

I won’t rule out abduction (assuming she decided to get in the car with a random stranger to some unknown destination) or dying from an accident or the elements while hiding from police, but that doesn’t explain why she was in NH in the first place. Until that can explain why she was in NH and why she left Amherst the way she did, suicide is always going to look most probable, based on the actual facts.

Yep. Case closed.

 

[jc8825]

I do not subscribe to a suicide theory. There is no more evidence of a suicide than of any other possibility. I do not believe that Maura was suicidal, as I have seen no compelling evidence to suggest such. There were no tracks into the snow. If Maura died as a result of exposure, why has there been no trace of her body or belongings? You can't bury yourself. If Maura died in this manner, her body would have been relatively easy to spot on the various searches conducted both by LE and by Fred Murray himself in the subsequent years, but yet nothing. If Maura did indeed died from exposure, it would have been outside of the search radius, and therefore would suggest that she was attempting to reach a destination before succumbing to the elements. If suicide was Maura's sole intention, then why run off quite a distance to do the job, she could have done the job a half mile up the road.

There is no evidence that Maura was depressed. None of her friends have ever indicated the possibility of suicide. In fact Maura's friends have stonewalled the investigation by refusing to answer pertinent questions in the same manner as Fred Murray. This would suggest that there is something deeper to the Maura story known only by those closest to her. I know of no suicide case that I have investigated where there is no history of depression, hospitalization, erratic or bizarre behavior, drug use, professional counseling, etc. Maura had no history of these things.

The narrative that Maura packed her dorm room prior to her departure from UMASS is invalid. It is unknown as to whether Maura packed her room or simply hadn't yet unpacked upon returning to campus from break. You cannot use that as fodder for your suicide theory. I find it more likely that due to her schedule with nursing school and personal life, she hadn't had the time to unpack. Perhaps initially Maura planned to unpack on Saturday, February 7, but Fred arriving changed those plans. That is pure speculation however.

As far as the second MVA changing Maura's plans, it obviously did so, but I don't share the idea that it accelerated her suicide. That night was bright, and the temperatures were hovering around the freezing point (mild for that time of the year in the Haverhill area), and Maura had a history of preferring to run in cold, adverse conditions. It wouldn't have been a stretch. Maura was unfamiliar with that section of 112, but she had traveled many times on the eastern portion of 112 - to the east of I-93. Maura's ultimate destination remains a mystery, but she would have been physically capable of covering the distance to the next large town, which was right near I-93. There was a credible witness that spotted someone that matched Maura's description running along 112 near the 116 intersection. What would have been Maura's intent to run that distance if she simply desired to commit suicide?

As far as why Maura took the alcohol with her, likely it would have been to get it away from the crash scene. She left with it so to not add fuel to the fire of a possible DUI. If Maura could sober up a bit before claiming the car, she could have explained the spilled wine away fairly easily. Again, Maura did not buy alcohol that would lead to quick intoxication. She bought liqueurs used to make mixed drinks. Does that make sense for someone wanting to commit suicide?

I have delved into this case fairly deeply and I just need more evidence, real evidence, to subscribe to a suicide theory. You may claim that Maura's actions prior to the disappearance to be indicative of suicide, but what about afterward? Where is the body? It should have been within the area of searches performed by LE and Fred Murray. Where is the backpack or bottles of alcohol? Where are Maura's clothes? There would have been evidence recovered by someone.