I have been lurking on this forum since the beginning of the case and am finally posting. I appreciate the civility, respect and even affection with which this forum is conducted. At any rate, for whatever reason--I am a local, I have young children of my own, I find Kyron's pictures particularly appealing--I have been very affected by this situation, as many of you are.
I feel may be one of the few taking LE at their word. I do not think they have any leads that have panned out and are, as they claim, systematically following protocol. Tanner's statements regarding small groups and reassembling at the classroom rang true for me (I am a room parent at a different school), so I have added them to the very few facts confirmed by LE in order to develop my theory. (I think the "sub" in question was most likely a parent volunteer, perhaps not a parent normally associated with that classroom.) So I am leaning toward an opportunistic abduction, at this point. Not necessarily a complete stranger, but very possibly.
I was on Sauvie's on Sunday for berry picking and hiking with my own children and saw Sherriff's officers on ATVs combing the roadsides (clearly looking for a dumped body) everywhere we went, as well as SAR on horseback in the interior roadless areas. So they are not limiting themselves to waterways. And we were pretty direct on our route--i.e., we did not scout the island looking for these guys.
I do not think LE necessarily had a specific lead in order to pursue the SI search. I think it's perfectly logical that a perp trying to exit the Skyline area and looking for a discreet, private place to do his business and dump a body would go to SI. The bridge to SI comes up quite soon after Newberry Rd enters Hwy 30 (and as a perp I'd NOT head back into Portland in broad daylight, nor would I head W from Skyline into the flat, more exposed and well trafficked farmlands). I expect if they don't turn up anything on the search on SI they will proceed to the next most logical spot (possibly heading W instead of E from Skyline). This would also fit with the 3 hour timeline cited elsewhere on the Kyron threads. A perp would not need nighttime to dispose of a body at either of the roads deadending in the wilderness area on SI, particularly on a weekday.
Lastly, I would like to comment that a busy, hectic day is, IMO, when a stranger is MOST likely to go unnoticed, particularly if the abduction (if any) occurred after most parents had departed and the smaller children's groups had begun to tour. They would have been mostly inside classrooms, leaving hallways vacant. (BTW, my daughter's school is the same size and I do not know the parents from other grades, by any means. That would be 600 faces for parents alone! And I'm a room parent, so ostensibly one of those "in the know.") If a child became separated from his or her group during the tour and was searching for the group (perhaps had even become a bit panicked at having been left behind), it might have been an opportunity for a stranger (and I think most pedophiles in this situation would have made an effort to blend in and would not be lurking conspicuously by the door with a deranged demeanor, so a stranger does not seem less likely to me) or adult acquaintance to provide help, perhaps suggest the group had gone outside, and then you would only need the element of surprise and a few moments to exit without observation or uproar. Not much struggle, I expect, probably just confusion and doubt. As awful as it is, a little "kindness" and an air of authority with an evenly slightly distressed child will go a long way; pedophiles know this. By the south entrance/parking lot there are no classroom windows that I can see. Stairwell windows, perhaps, but who would be looking? It would be, as someone already commented, a perfect storm. The perp may not even have planned to abduct a child; perhaps he was just enjoying the opportunity to be around the kids. (I have wondered about the video shout-out for June 3; perhaps that was the earliest date the Inquiry Expo was posted on Skyline's billboard.) Providing no one witnessed the exit and the abductor, the child would appear to vanish into thin air.
I hope, hope, hope this is wrong and that somehow, miraculously, he will turn up alive. It is too awful.