PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #9

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Given the way his brother died and the pain of not understanding/knowing that is likely to have affected his family, I cannot fathom a "suicide" theory without his leaving a note. It would really be too cruel. Ray doesn't sound like someone who didn't think things through and he is not described as overtly distraught prior to his disappearance. So...I am left with "walk-away" or murder. And once again, given the same results from walk-away as there are for suicide, I still come down to murder.

This is my opinion only.

Though I give suicide a very low possibility, it is possible for someone very depressed to do that. Most people who kill themselves do not leave a note.

Both suicide and walkaway could have a financial motive, where his daughter would get his pension and there would be lower tax liability.

My odds are:

Walkaway: 51%
Foul Play: 44%
Suicide: 4%
Something Else: 1%
 
Though I give suicide a very low possibility, it is possible for someone very depressed to do that. Most people who kill themselves do not leave a note.

Both suicide and walkaway could have a financial motive, where his daughter would get his pension and there would be lower tax liability.

My odds are:

Walkaway: 51%
Foul Play: 44%
Suicide: 4%
Something Else: 1%

The only way that I could wrap my head around "walkaway" is if he felt his immediately family/friends could be in danger if he didn't leave. Again, this family was already a victim of an unexplained and painful suicide. The feelings left by an unexplained "walkaway" would have been the same.

JMO
 
The only way that I could wrap my head around "walkaway" is if he felt his immediately family/friends could be in danger if he didn't leave. Again, this family was already a victim of an unexplained and painful suicide. The feelings left by an unexplained "walkaway" would have been the same.

JMO


It could be a number of things, including someone that got 30 years in 2000 to show up at his front door in 2015. There is a monetary advantage to LG. And who really wants to deal with the Sandusky aftermath.
 
It could be a number of things, including someone that got 30 years in 2000 to show up at his front door in 2015. There is a monetary advantage to LG. And who really wants to deal with the Sandusky aftermath.
Ok. Agreed. However, a guy that decides to be a DA and does so for as many years as Gricar did - knows and understands these risks. (There were many DA's before and after him who did not disappear). So, either there was a direct and immediately obvious threat to himself or immediate family network or...well or...a walk-away would be quite strange under the circumstances (near retirement). The monetary advantage to LG? To many a few 100 grand might seem like a winfall but at the expense of his disappearance? Nope, not convinced that that could be a motive. Sandusky "aftermath"? I've seen nothing to indicate that Ray had any part in the "ring". That he chose not to prosecute based on potentially dubious evidence (which seems most likely) is not an indication that he would be part of any aftermath at all.

JMO

JJ - I know that you have spent a great deal more time on this than I possibly could - I am simply trying to offer an "outsider" perspective for you (and others) to consider.
 
Ok. Agreed. However, a guy that decides to be a DA and does so for as many years as Gricar did - knows and understands these risks. (There were many DA's before and after him who did not disappear). So, either there was a direct and immediately obvious threat to himself or immediate family network or...well or...a walk-away would be quite strange under the circumstances (near retirement). The monetary advantage to LG? To many a few 100 grand might seem like a winfall but at the expense of his disappearance? Nope, not convinced that that could be a motive. Sandusky "aftermath"? I've seen nothing to indicate that Ray had any part in the "ring". That he chose not to prosecute based on potentially dubious evidence (which seems most likely) is not an indication that he would be part of any aftermath at all.

JMO

JJ - I know that you have spent a great deal more time on this than I possibly could - I am simply trying to offer an "outsider" perspective for you (and others) to consider.

When thinking about motives for possible walkaway, in my mind I always assumed any financial motive would have been secondary to another, unknown, reason or reasons for doing it. I also don't think a walkaway would have been motivated by fear of reprisal for some past conviction, etc. Perhaps it was something he had thought about for years. Perhaps it was his own idea of a retirement plan. Of course there is no real evidence for any of that that we know of, but when thinking about possible scenarios, a long-planned walkaway into retirement seemed most plausible to me.
 
Ok. Agreed. However, a guy that decides to be a DA and does so for as many years as Gricar did - knows and understands these risks. (There were many DA's before and after him who did not disappear). So, either there was a direct and immediately obvious threat to himself or immediate family network or...well or...a walk-away would be quite strange under the circumstances (near retirement).

None in Centre County, at least in recent history. Grine ran for one term, and then ran for judge. Mix, his immediate predecessor, stayed in for one term. We're now back to 1977. You can add on to that he was a prosecutor in Cleveland for 12 years.

The monetary advantage to LG? To many a few 100 grand might seem like a winfall but at the expense of his disappearance? Nope, not convinced that that could be a motive.

It might to RFG. He advocated more than doubling his salary in his first month in office, in 1986. He could have looked at it as having earned his pension. Money seems to have been an issue in his second divorce, and my source was not Sloane.

In 1986, he was married to Barbara, who was a professor, so they'd probably had a gross income of over $100 K.

Sandusky "aftermath"? I've seen nothing to indicate that Ray had any part in the "ring". That he chose not to prosecute based on potentially dubious evidence (which seems most likely) is not an indication that he would be part of any aftermath at all.

JMO

JJ - I know that you have spent a great deal more time on this than I possibly could - I am simply trying to offer an "outsider" perspective for you (and others) to consider.

RFG gave the reason that he put the Mini in PEF name was because he was worried about being sued. It would be difficult to sue a sitting DA for official action, but that is what he gave as the reason. The fear might have been unfounded, but he seemed to have had it. Now, was that tied to Sandusky? We obviously don't know.

We've seen even the scrutiny that Lauro, JKA (who probably acted properly, handled it briefly, and wasn't calling the shots), Corbett and Madeira (who I think acted properly), have come under this. Even if there was absolutely nothing improper in RFG's actions in 1998, it would have been a PR nightmare.

The evidence RFG had in 1998 was more than the AG had. There was a second victim, B. K. Also the time between the case being reported, and the closing of it, 4 weeks, no interview of Sandusky before making the decision is a bit odd. That is very short. The previously cited Phillips case was five months to charges; there was one where the gap was at least twice that.

Also, what is very troubling is that the case was not handled as abuse cases normally were handled. It's one thing to try the case personally; it is another to exclude the person that normally tries them. There are questions about what happened with the Chambers' report and even the Seasock report and why Lauro never saw at least the former until 2012.

That certainly doesn't indicate that he did anything improper, but eyebrows are raised.
 
When thinking about motives for possible walkaway, in my mind I always assumed any financial motive would have been secondary to another, unknown, reason or reasons for doing it. I also don't think a walkaway would have been motivated by fear of reprisal for some past conviction, etc. Perhaps it was something he had thought about for years. Perhaps it was his own idea of a retirement plan. Of course there is no real evidence for any of that that we know of, but when thinking about possible scenarios, a long-planned walkaway into retirement seemed most plausible to me.


Well, there could be a number of factors.

If walkaway or suicide, RFG could think, **If I do this in 9 months, Lara will inherit a few $100 K less.** He could also be thinking, **I don't want some 20 year old guy that I put away for 20 years in 2003 to get out in 10 and show up at my house with a gun while Patty is there. If I'm not there, he won't.**

I really don't see anything dishonorable in either.
 
Though I give suicide a very low possibility, it is possible for someone very depressed to do that. Most people who kill themselves do not leave a note.

Both suicide and walkaway could have a financial motive, where his daughter would get his pension and there would be lower tax liability.

My odds are:

Walkaway: 51%
Foul Play: 44%
Suicide: 4%
Something Else: 1%

I wonder if Ray Gricar had any history of depression. I know his brother, Roy, committed suicide in 1996. What do you mean "Something Else"?

I saw this article.
Ray Gricar mystery: DA's privacy adds to intrigue surrounding his disappearance
http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2012/04/ray_gricar_mystery.html

This caught my attention about Gricar.

Gricar had seemed fascinated with the story of Mel Wiley, the police chief in a town near Cleveland who vanished 1985.

Colleagues thought Gricar talked about it because of his Cleveland connections. But in hindsight, there are similarities:

Hinckley’s car was found near Lake Erie. Inside were his wallet, police identification and badge.

Hinckley told his girlfriend the day before that he was going to buy a bathing suit and go swimming. He hasn’t been seen since.


I find it rather interesting that Gricar was fascinated with Police Chief Mel Wiley.

And also this one.
When courthouse colleagues first heard that Gricar was missing, some laughed it off.

After all, it had happened before.

During Gricar’s second marriage, to Emma, he took off after a fight, drove to Cleveland and watched the Indians play a doubleheader.


Ray Gricar has quite an interesting personality.
 
She confused the names a bit. It is Chief Mel Wiley of Hinckley Township, OH.

The original reporting is here, and it was on a suggestion from someone "amazing" online that PB asked Sloane: http://dailyitem.com/archive/x691283790

The importance is here: http://www.centredaily.com/2009/02/22/2397093/wiley-and-gricar-the-timing.html

RFG filed for divorce on 3/12/01, so the latest that the trip could be would be in September or October of 2000.

I find it interesting that Ray Gricar is really fascinated with Chief Mel Wiley's disappearance. I wonder why Gricar was so interested in that case. I have looked at the Gricar case. Interesting to note that Gricar's case got renewed attention in light of Jerry Sandusky. It is interesting he disappeared seven years after the first report of Sandusky molesting boys in 1998. He did express unease towards Penn State.

Revealed: Prosecutor who failed to nail Penn State coach for 'sex abuse' vanished in 2005 and was declared 'legally dead' this year
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ex-abuse-case-Penn-States-Jerry-Sandusky.html

The lawyer's nephew Tony Gricar told The Patriot-News: 'People ask why Ray did not prosecute, and I have no problem saying, because he clearly felt he didn't have a case for a ''successful'' prosecution.

'One thing I can say is that Ray was beholden to no one, was not a politician.'

The DA had a 'bitter taste in his mouth' for the Penn State program and Coach Sandusky, added his nephew.
 
I find it interesting that Ray Gricar is really fascinated with Chief Mel Wiley's disappearance. I wonder why Gricar was so interested in that case. I have looked at the Gricar case. Interesting to note that Gricar's case got renewed attention in light of Jerry Sandusky. It is interesting he disappeared seven years after the first report of Sandusky molesting boys in 1998. He did express unease towards Penn State.

Revealed: Prosecutor who failed to nail Penn State coach for 'sex abuse' vanished in 2005 and was declared 'legally dead' this year
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ex-abuse-case-Penn-States-Jerry-Sandusky.html

The lawyer's nephew Tony Gricar told The Patriot-News: 'People ask why Ray did not prosecute, and I have no problem saying, because he clearly felt he didn't have a case for a ''successful'' prosecution.

'One thing I can say is that Ray was beholden to no one, was not a politician.'

The DA had a 'bitter taste in his mouth' for the Penn State program and Coach Sandusky, added his nephew.

The first time I ever heard a suggestion of RFG's dislike for Penn State was in the first fortnight of November 2011. He complained about "crazy football fans" to colleagues (well one), but not about the University.

That said, there are examples of RFG prosecuting much weaker cases, including those against Penn State football players.
 
In terms of depression, RFG was diagnosed with depression. LE checked his medical records. He was napping in the two or so weeks prior to the disappearance and he seemed unfocused about 4-5 weeks prior. About the week prior, JKA described him as "deeply distraught."

He was working harder, it seemed.

By "something else," I mean things like an accident, e.g. he slipped and fell into the river, he had a heart attack and fell into the river, or he had a ministroke and wondered off. Something like that.
 
The first time I ever heard a suggestion of RFG's dislike for Penn State was in the first fortnight of November 2011. He complained about "crazy football fans" to colleagues (well one), but not about the University.

That said, there are examples of RFG prosecuting much weaker cases, including those against Penn State football players.

Interesting that Gricar has prosecuted Penn State football players, even if they were weak cases. I wonder why he never prosecuted Sandusky.

In terms of depression, RFG was diagnosed with depression. LE checked his medical records. He was napping in the two or so weeks prior to the disappearance and he seemed unfocused about 4-5 weeks prior. About the week prior, JKA described him as "deeply distraught."

He was working harder, it seemed.

By "something else," I mean things like an accident, e.g. he slipped and fell into the river, he had a heart attack and fell into the river, or he had a ministroke and wondered off. Something like that.

His change in behavior is rather interesting. It could be possible that Gricar did slip and fall into the river and his body never found. That does sound possible.
 
Interesting that Gricar has prosecuted Penn State football players, even if they were weak cases. I wonder why he never prosecuted Sandusky.

Good question.


His change in behavior is rather interesting. It could be possible that Gricar did slip and fall into the river and his body never found. That does sound possible.

Possible, yes. Likely, no.

It was mentioned on the prior thread, I think, but a few years ago (2008?) two children drowned in the river. They went in about 200 yards south of the bridge. They were found about 200 yards south of that. The search was not nearly as massive as the one for RFG.
 
Interesting that Gricar has prosecuted Penn State football players, even if they were weak cases. I wonder why he never prosecuted Sandusky.

It's one thing to prosecute a weak case against a Penn State football player, a case that could easily be lost.

It's another thing to prosecute Paterno's right hand man with really strong evidence and an excellent chance at a conviction.
 
It's one thing to prosecute a weak case against a Penn State football player, a case that could easily be lost.

It's another thing to prosecute Paterno's right hand man with really strong evidence and an excellent chance at a conviction.

One of the cases, just discussed in a blog, had implications for Paterno, so it was more than just prosecuting a football player. http://www.centredaily.com/2012/12/07/3427821/except-for-sandusky.html

At the time, Paterno had made the decision that Sandusky would not be the next coach and had informed Sandusky. http://www.centredaily.com/2012/12/07/3427821/except-for-sandusky.html pp. 193, 195

RFG did prosecute politically unpopular cases.
 
Since this has come up, it looks like the latest the "Cleveland trip" would be September 30-October 1, 2000. That was the season closer and it was on a Sunday. RFG filed for divorce in 3/01, and the Indians didn't start playing until 4/1/01.

Granted, it could have been before that, but that should the latest date.
 
I too have followed this case since the beginning. My vote goes to foul play, due to his body never having been found. Very difficult for an accident victim or a suicide not to be found eventually. Not impossible, but unlikely.

I do want to point something out, in support of the suicide theory. If I am not mistaken it was said that he had recently been diagnosed with clinical depression? I am wondering if he was started on medication for that. It could explain a need for naps and being "unfocused" for a few weeks after starting on meds. (This goes away, but is sometimes bothersome when medication is started.)

Also, it is pretty well known in the medical community that there is an upward spike in suicides among patients who have recently begun antidepressant medications. Most explain this phenomenum as "when a patient is severely depressed they will contemplate suicide but their depression is so overwhelming they don't have the energy to go through with it. When they take medication, they begin to feel slightly better, and then have the energy to complete what they had already been long contemplating." True or not, psychiatrists know to keep a close eye on patients who have newly begun taking antidepressants.
 
RFG was never diagnosed with depressed and was never treated for it. There was a history of it in his family.
 
Ooops, I left out a "not" in an earlier post. RFG was never diagnosed with depression.
 
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