Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #2

[Bats]

I suppose if VICPOL thought it was a person from Ballarat, like.. say, Paul Denyer, someone who might take and disappear someone else, they would have locked down Ballarat, close off the freeway, and the north and south exits and entrances, and established a curfew, all men off the street from 5pm to 9am, something like this, all cars checked and divvied up, have armed personnel all around the perimeter.... close all the pubs and bars, bottle shops, etc.. clubs...all footy training and cricket training off, etc.... close the city down...

But this seems a very softly softly approach, nothing wrong with that, it often works, too..

Yes, the soft approach seems to work well in my opinion.
VICPOL obviously have resources that I'm sure many in this chat group have no idea of.
I expect the Police have their suspicions and we'll find out if and when it is broadcast to the media.

Its interesting picking apart what the police may know but there is also the dichotomy that this is still very raw and real for the family. I feel for the family and i hope they have some answers soon Troops

 

[Trooper]

You would have a second Eureka Stockade.

Just the place for it.....

 

[Black-Cat]

She also worked in her husband's business in the reception part

Why do people always refer to it as the 'husband's business' .... I would say 'their business' ...

 

[Lucy6226]

Detectives are keen to review all footage in the area between 7am and 7pm. Even if the footage does not depict Samantha

RBBM-

That's the key point. Are they looking for footage of someone else in particular but can't say who at the moment??

 

[Lucy6226]

She also worked in her husband's business in the reception part

According to their website someone else worked on reception. SM worked in administration and bookkeeping

Our Team | Inland Motor Body works

 

[Deleted member 293720]

RBBM-

That's the key point. Are they looking for footage of someone else in particular but can't say who at the moment??

RBBM-

That's the key point. Are they looking for footage of someone else in particular but can't say who at the moment??

I would say so, especially if there were alibis made by a person/s

Why do people always refer to it as the 'husband's business' .... I would say 'their business' ...

The business could be in his name

 

[Voluspa]

I suppose if VICPOL thought it was a person from Ballarat, like.. say, Paul Denyer, someone who might take and disappear someone else, they would have locked down Ballarat, close off the freeway, and the north and south exits and entrances, and established a curfew, all men off the street from 5pm to 9am, something like this, all cars checked and divvied up, have armed personnel all around the perimeter.... close all the pubs and bars, bottle shops, etc.. clubs...all footy training and cricket training off, etc.... close the city down...

But this seems a very softly softly approach, nothing wrong with that, it often works, too..

Would VICPOL go hard if this were the first case? Or would this be more likely if the perpetrator reoffends?

I understand Sissy Austin's attack was in close proximity but unsure at this stage if VICPOL consider the two cases linked. I think if they did then there would be warnings and curfews issued.

 

[olaselo]

RBBM-

That's the key point. Are they looking for footage of someone else in particular but can't say who at the moment??

I don't think anyone in particular - gathering data most likely.

Then cross checking dashcam data with vehicle registration data such as addresses - anyone out of the vehicles registered area will probably get a question.

Next will most likely be cell tower data dumps - going through the data and matching up 'pings'/'handshakes'/etc.

When SM phone was turned off - immediately before it was switched off it was connected to a tower.
When it was turned on again 'sometime later in the day' - there was another 'connection' or 'ping'.
There will be time between these pings. There could also be other devices connected to the same towers - at the same time, moving in tandem with SM 'phone movements'.

This takes a bit of time - this is similarly to how Cleo was found.

The ambiguous loss article above is a good read - very sad. The article also mentions that approx 85% of missing persons cases in Australia pertain to Mental Health. Only 1-2% are criminally related. (150 people go missing every day, 90% are found within a week. 1% remain missing long term. Of this 1% or 1.5 people every week (can't actually be 1.5 people - as you cannot have half a person, so let's simply annualise it and say 78 people every year) - of the 78 missing people every year, perhaps maybe 1 of these is criminally related.

And yet - here we all are trying to figure out 'whodunnit' when the odds are stacked against us.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

I think they were Collectable “Classic Cars”…. Most likely very valuable.IMO.

Mick has around 30 people working under him at the business. A rev head with a soft spot for classic cars, he was due to drive in a car show on …………. (Sunday IIRC)


Now paywalled for me

A CCTV snap, a morning run, then nothing. The search for Samantha Murphy

Her husband Mick said no one vanishes into thin air, but after six days of searching, there’s been no sign of the 51-year-old after she went for a run.

www.theage.com.au

http://

 

[Deleted member 293720]

There has to be CCTV at Mick's workplace, that would give the police time on movements etc

 

[SouthAussie]

Would VICPOL go hard if this were the first case? Or would this be more likely if the perpetrator reoffends?

I understand Sissy Austin's attack was in close proximity but unsure at this stage if VICPOL consider the two cases linked. I think if they did then there would be warnings and curfews issued.

One thing that I noticed in the day six presser is that Mark Hatt was asked by a reporter if there are other missing persons or cases in the area that could be related.

Mark's response was no, not that he is aware of.

imo

 

[Bats]

Would VICPOL go hard if this were the first case? Or would this be more likely if the perpetrator reoffends?

I understand Sissy Austin's attack was in close proximity but unsure at this stage if VICPOL consider the two cases linked. I think if they did then there would be warnings and curfews issued.

I expect that as soon as someone is declared missing like this (and i'd expect the missing persons unit were involved from day one), VICPOL would create a new spreadsheet. From the get go the spreadsheet would be large. Avenues like Sissy Austin would be included fairly quickly. Any "persons of interest" that reside in the vicinity would be included very quickly too. It would include findings from the SES and other volunteers, all very quickly.
Eventually, because they have so much information, they would start reducing the information, carefully, one by one.....

 

[SouthAussie]

When SM phone was turned off - immediately before it was switched off it was connected to a tower.
When it was turned on again 'sometime later in the day' - there was another 'connection' or 'ping'.
There will be time between these pings. There could also be other devices connected to the same towers - at the same time, moving in tandem with SM 'phone movements'.

I don't know that Sam's phone was turned off and turned back on? I haven't seen that info from any of the police. But I have seen it in speculation here.

In the presser (day six) the officer who was speaking alongside Mark Hatt was asked a couple of times if Sam had her phone with her. He gave affirmative answers (can't recall the exact words but I will transcribe if I watch it again for some reason), and his responses/subtle reaction gave me the impression there was more ping data.

The golf club area ping (for which the police will not acknowledge the time) is noted as the "last ping". There could be many or some pings prior to that.

imo

 

[mamamama9873]

I don't think anyone in particular - gathering data most likely.

Then cross checking dashcam data with vehicle registration data such as addresses - anyone out of the vehicles registered area will probably get a question.

Next will most likely be cell tower data dumps - going through the data and matching up 'pings'/'handshakes'/etc.

When SM phone was turned off - immediately before it was switched off it was connected to a tower.
When it was turned on again 'sometime later in the day' - there was another 'connection' or 'ping'.
There will be time between these pings. There could also be other devices connected to the same towers - at the same time, moving in tandem with SM 'phone movements'.

This takes a bit of time - this is similarly to how Cleo was found.

The ambiguous loss article above is a good read - very sad. The article also mentions that approx 85% of missing persons cases in Australia pertain to Mental Health. Only 1-2% are criminally related. (150 people go missing every day, 90% are found within a week. 1% remain missing long term. Of this 1% or 1.5 people every week (can't actually be 1.5 people - as you cannot have half a person, so let's simply annualise it and say 78 people every year) - of the 78 missing people every year, perhaps maybe 1 of these is criminally related.

And yet - here we all are trying to figure out 'whodunnit' when the odds are stacked against us.

I feel that because the odds of this happening are so slim, had this been so widely reported (in the Australian media). Based on what we have been told by police, I’m 99% certain SM’s disappearance sadly is criminally related.

 

[SouthAussie]

I expect that as soon as someone is declared missing like this (and i'd expect the missing persons unit were involved from day one), VICPOL would create a new spreadsheet. From the get go the spreadsheet would be large. Avenues like Sissy Austin would be included fairly quickly. Any "persons of interest" that reside in the vicinity would be included very quickly too. It would include findings from the SES and other volunteers, all very quickly.
Eventually, because they have so much information, they would start reducing the information, carefully, one by one.....

I imagine that sex offenders in the area will be on that POI list also, until their whereabouts on that Sunday have been confirmed.

imo

 

[Lukey2121]

I don't think anyone in particular - gathering data most likely.

Then cross checking dashcam data with vehicle registration data such as addresses - anyone out of the vehicles registered area will probably get a question.

Next will most likely be cell tower data dumps - going through the data and matching up 'pings'/'handshakes'/etc.

When SM phone was turned off - immediately before it was switched off it was connected to a tower.
When it was turned on again 'sometime later in the day' - there was another 'connection' or 'ping'.
There will be time between these pings. There could also be other devices connected to the same towers - at the same time, moving in tandem with SM 'phone movements'.

This takes a bit of time - this is similarly to how Cleo was found.

The ambiguous loss article above is a good read - very sad. The article also mentions that approx 85% of missing persons cases in Australia pertain to Mental Health. Only 1-2% are criminally related. (150 people go missing every day, 90% are found within a week. 1% remain missing long term. Of this 1% or 1.5 people every week (can't actually be 1.5 people - as you cannot have half a person, so let's simply annualise it and say 78 people every year) - of the 78 missing people every year, perhaps maybe 1 of these is criminally related.

And yet - here we all are trying to figure out 'whodunnit' when the odds are stacked against us.

I find it interesting they can apportion a criminal element when these people have never been found. If someone is targeting vulnerable people, like we see happen in the US, then these people would never met the requirements to be listed as criminal.
How can they determine method of disappearance if they’ve never been found. Just because someone is drug affected, depressed, unreliable - that doesn’t guarantee suicide or death by misadventure.
Unknown should be listed as unknown and possibility of criminal circumstances until found.

 

[ScottToorak]

I am just wondering if police have inspected every car that was in for smash repairs immediately prior to and after sm disappearance. It would be very easy for someone to take a drivable yet damaged vehicle awaiting repairs for a drive and use it to mow down someone then return it to the repair shop for the repairs as thou nothing had ever occurred. I think this mater will be solved very close to home but not at home and not involving next of kin of sm.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

I don't know that Sam's phone was turned off and turned back on? I haven't seen that info from any of the police. But I have seen it in speculation here.

In the presser (day six) the officer who was speaking alongside Mark Hatt was asked a couple of times if Sam had her phone with her. He gave affirmative answers (can't recall the exact words but I will transcribe if I watch it again for some reason), and his responses/subtle reaction gave me the impression there was more ping data.

The golf club area ping (for which the police will not acknowledge the time) is noted as the "last ping". There could be many or some pings prior to that.

imo

Her family have strenuously stated that she would not have turned off her phone, it's turned on all the time

 

[Deleted member 293720]

What I'll add to this - it's wise to change up your route often. Running the same time, same track every day could lead you to falling victim to a predator.

Agree. People do get to know your movements, and it can be dangerous, especially when you're by yourself

 

[SLouTh]

Nine News Melbourne Update

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758390770141200878