Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[ausleauther]

Somewhere throughout the threads I saw a comment about her holding a bag of

Good point - but I am assuming she was running on the path where her phone last pinged . Is it a path that cars could use

Most perps targeting someone would dump the phone and watch at or near the crime scene but this person left a phone on till 5pm

 

[ausleauther]

Is the watch broken ?

Could she be running away from perp ?
They are in car , ( either by force or not ) he drives to secluded spot , she jumps out to escape , he runs her over . Throws watch / phone in bush . Takes body elsewhere .

I just think if she was hit with car - wouldn’t there be blood and lots of damage to car . Yes you could respray if you had access to the shop - but how do you get rid of the blood ?

And of course the big question where is her body ? That would answer lots of questions .

I think LE believe it picked up her last moments of life at Mt clear . The search for small items in that area couldve been for a watch that didn't ping with the phone at 5pm. The perp would turn the phone off if the switched off her watch .

 

[mamamama9873]

There will be a motive

As well as

Love triangle
Divorce / lose his business, possibly his house and children
life insurance

This is the most likely scenario - statistically. Does anyone more experienced in sleuthing know if it’s unusual that particular close family members have not been ruled out after 4 weeks?

 

[bearbear]

I don't agree that you can draw the conclusion 'targeted attack' from the statement 'no evidence of risk to anyone else'.

I do not believe police will deliberately sow panic in the general public, just because they are not sure what happened in a case.

JMO

this was a police quote not mine

 

[Cedars]

Good points. But lets look at it from another angle. What if a vehicle was travelling at speed on a dirt road and came upon same jogging suddenly. The vehicle swerves and tries to miss Sam but doesn't, lose control hit a tree. Then realise Sam is gone, now they have a damged vehicle and know that someone will see said vehicle with damage. That could be one reason to remove ALL evidence and transport the evidence away. JMO

I think that's the kind of possibility police are referring to, in terms of looking for vehicles with damage, rather than vehicles from the family business.

But also to add: there will usually be visible damage to a vehicle just from hitting a person. And secondly, instead of swerving and trying to miss the jogger, there have been plenty of cases where the vehicle has accelerated and deliberately hit the jogger.

For example, a 59 year-old American woman visiting peaceful, safe Crete, jogging mid-day along the side of a quiet road, was randomly chosen by a local to fulfill his long-held fantasies of committing rape and murder.

JMO

 

[PolyDot]

I think LE believe it picked up her last moments of life at Mt clear . The search for small items in that area couldve been for a watch that didn't ping with the phone at 5pm. The perp would turn the phone off if the switched off her watch .

Ok by no indication of blood etc - as we know of

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Yep.
Although I'm veeeeery reluctant to suspect family
Family is sacred to me.
It would be unfathomable to me

As the police have said, everyone is a person of interest, they have to look closely into everyone's background and business

 

[PolyDot]

This is the most likely scenario - statistically. Does anyone more experienced in sleuthing know if it’s unusual that particular close family members have not been ruled out after 4 weeks?

I guess it’s because they are still collecting evidence in preparation of a charge . I think they need to find SM , or get a confession

 

[ausleauther]

This is the most likely scenario - statistically. Does anyone more experienced in sleuthing know if it’s unusual that particular close family members have not been ruled out after 4 weeks?

Yeah it does, i think 1 family member harmed her and another is cover it up. The perp is no harm to anyone else and must be on watch incase they try hurt themselves. Police could be using the media to put pressure on the weaker of the 2. I only just read yesterday that the family are into drama and screen play so they have some type of awareness of acting

 

[BreakingNews]

Thanks. So I'm guessing she planned to be home long before it really got hot. Sorry, I'm not used to such huge variables in temps in one day.

 

[jjleroche]

I guess, without a body,
Police cannot be exactly sure what happened.
Or if Samantha is dead or alive.
Chances that she is still alive are very slim but...
Who knows?

I also think that if the body is found, Police might obtain DNA of the perp/s.

But, of course, time of discovery is of essence.

I'm afraid the the search will take a long time.
And that she might eventually be found purely by chance -
as it happens with people who are discovered by hikers, dog walkers, etc.

JMO

More information is being slowly drip fed.

Police were asking the public if they saw a vehicle with damage that morning in the vicinity of Mt Clear. Perhaps checking if somebody used a car from the panel beating business (that was awaiting repair) to commit this crime. Perhaps number plates were removed, crime committed and car returned to the business with the actual owner unaware that their vehicle has been used in a major crime?

As has been speculated for a few weeks now, Police now have a major focus on the business. I have read at least half a dozen mentions of bikie related as well.

In many cases, a suspect or person of interest can have an airtight alibi for the actual time of a crime. They set this up in advance knowing they will be a suspect when the deed is done. Police need to then untangle the web to see if they may have paid someone else to make a person disappear, payment may have been made months earlier.

IMO Police believe this has been well planned and is not a random accident or abduction.

Further to my post earlier this week, two people linked to prominent Ballarat towing company Barry Smith Smash Repairs, faced court in December 2023, have been accused of “extensive” deception while contracted by Victoria Police.

Behind paywall - for subscribers

Pair linked to Barry James Smash Repairs face 318 fraud charges

They are alleged to have double-charged Victoria Police, among others.

www.thecourier.com.au

IMO this situation is likely to have changed the status quo of the crash repair industry in Ballarat considerably - various motives may have resulted from this situation. IMO

 

[ausleauther]

Thanks. So I'm guessing she planned to be home long before it really got hot. Sorry, I'm not used to such huge variables in temps in one day.

A jog long enough to not need a bottle of water

 

[BreakingNews]

This is the most likely scenario - statistically. Does anyone more experienced in sleuthing know if it’s unusual that particular close family members have not been ruled out after 4 weeks?

I understand from other cases that police don't really rule anyone out until an arrest is made. In case of Baden Clay police said he wasn't a suspect, when in fact he was from day 1. It took police 2 months to get their ducks in a row and arrest him.

 

[Bogbacal2]

I wonder if the smash repair business being looked into has something to do with the cars on the lot-maybe looking into that and asking people to come forward with info on damaged vehicles to cross-reference cars in the lot at the time of SM disappearance?
Edited by me..I know we have touched on this..just thinking out loud again!

 

[Deleted member 293720]

But surely this person would be the 1st to be x-rayed by Police, no?

What about alibi?

Would AVO be at the family dinner???

Interesting Detective Acting Superintendent Mark Hatt, has not mentioned anything about any dinner the previous night and if Samantha had an appointment / family brunch the morning she disappeared, as what has been reported in the media

 

[Dotta]

A jog long enough to not need a bottle of water

Did you mean:
"short enough"?

 

[ausleauther]

Was the father and daughter involved with searching for her before they raised the missing person alarm?

 

[Awakening]

May have been a spontaneous act of violence.

Someone known to her with a grudge happens to be driving along and sees her jogging by herself.

Overcome with resentment or anger and perhaps under the influence or egged on by others in the car deliberately hits her with their vehicle.

Perhaps they thought her phone might contain information that was useful to them in some way?

Pure speculation.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Somewhere throughout the threads I saw a comment about her holding a bag of

Most perps targeting someone would dump the phone and watch at or near the crime scene but this person left a phone on till 5pm

This would have been crucial in the police going back there again and searching the Mt Clear area, most likely looking for her mobile, other small items, signs of a struggle

The police have either found it ( obviously keeping quiet )

Or the perpetrator has gone back to do a final check and picked it up

 

[bearbear]

as family are pois still, are we not allowed to allude to them in possible scenarios?
not sure why my post was deleted as we are all speculating?