Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

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ProfCluezo said:
Thank you. I can see why it’s very complex then, and difficult to predict a timeframe. Police probably have to consider every possible scenario that could be used to challenge the evidence they have then, at every stage. I wonder how such an extensive investigative process is organised. It must be an engineering feat in itself to set out and cross check every possibility. Especially as new info emerges or in the event of contradictory or ambiguous info.
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Yes, i very much agree ProfCluezo.
The methodology is similar to how scientific theories are proven.

The law in this case (if in fact there is a perpetrator) will require the standard of proof to be "beyond reasonable doubt"
I am sure that investigators have amazing software to help them!
 
Glad we have mods to “keep us all in line”…

Just being cheeky.

While I personally see this term as harmless endearing banter if used in the right context, I can see the points others are making in that it can also be a very harmful excusing term like a “boys will be boys” type comment, and/or a demeaning term. It could also imply controlling, manipulative behaviour. Reverse the sexes and it sounds just awful “he keeps her in line”. It subjective and depends on the circumstances, context, audience - I’m going to move on.

It’s really a sign of how little there is to go on, to be debating this and also guessing the 7km running time of an individual we know little about, for an entire day.

C’mon VicPol, I hope you are honing in on someone. Meanwhile those circling bushfires just make such an intense backdrop to all this. Good luck to all affected.

One question for locals would the assumed 7km running route be up / down many steep hills? I’m guessing yes but keen to hear from those in the know. It might help explain a slower time?
 
Bats said:
Yes, i very much agree ProfCluezo.
The methodology is similar to how scientific theories are proven.

The law in this case (if in fact there is a perpetrator) will require the standard of proof to be "beyond reasonable doubt"
I am sure that investigators have amazing software to help them!
Click to expand...
I think this is a big factor, the police may have a sound circumstantial case against someone (eg known criminal) but others (eg family) are inadvertently implicated although innocent. Or in fact that could also work vice versa. So police have to move particularly carefully and/or wait for iron clad evidence to nail the accused, or they give the accused’s defence an easy out to argue reasonable doubt in court, by pointing out there was more than one possible attacker in the area at the time.
 
Toowong(s) said:
I think this is a big factor, the police may have a sound circumstantial case against someone (eg known criminal) but others (eg family) are inadvertently implicated although innocent. Or in fact that could also work vice versa. So police have to move particularly carefully and/or wait for iron clad evidence to nail the accused, or they give the accused’s defence an easy out to argue reasonable doubt in court, by pointing out there was more than one possible attacker.
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Right. So this is where “media strategy” could be very helpful…. Let’s hope Under Investigation tomorrow night may assist with teasing apart some of these possibilities.. To be clearer, my thinking is that the sleuthing process is not only about what info to “go on” but also what info to not go on… In the absence of any “new” info today I do think there’s value in “zooming out” so to speak and looking at things from a different vantage point… JMO
 
ProfCluezo said:
Right. So this is where “media strategy” could be very helpful…. Let’s hope Under Investigation tomorrow night may assist with teasing apart some of these possibilities.. To be clearer, my thinking is that the sleuthing process is not only about what info to “go on” but also what info to not go on… In the absence of any “new” info today I do think there’s value in “zooming out” so to speak and looking at things from a different vantage point… JMO
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Wise words! What are you thinking?
 
Moonchild90 said:
For some reason it's giving me Sarah Everard's case vibes, when LE gone quiet and then suddenly we heard of the arrest.

They had hours of CCTV to look at as well.

IMO Samantha has entered a vehicle either deliberately or not...
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The police are looking for a vehicle with suspected damage which could have been used in Samantha's disappearance

The police don't believe she is in the bush, so she must have been transported out, without anyone seeing

There could be witnesses as well, who have seen quite a lot that morning near Mt Clear, and have given police extra crucial information...

Seen Sam struggling with some people
Seen a dented vehicle with Sam getting pushed in
A vehicle and other vehicles with persons sitting inside partially in the bush
Person/s acting suspiciously near Mt Clear on mobile, agitated
heard a gunshot / screams
person/s might have been known recognised

It was a very hot day when Sam disappeared, so some people might have been active in the early morning before it got too hot and taken walks through there or bike ride
 
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To be frank I’m not thinking about any specific scenario at this point, as I’m just a newbie. I’m just trying to grasp the process of what needs to be thought about (and potentially eliminated) by better understanding what processes the police are following, and their general approach to solving a case like this in the broader context of the law. To me, even though my questions may seem a little tangential there is a purpose behind them. I guess I’m picking up on the understandable frustration that fellow sleuthers seem to be feeling when there’s little that’s new to “go on”, and rather than feeling “stuck” I’m just encouraging members to consider looking at the evidence slightly differently. My hunch is there is far more to “go on” if certain possibilities to not “go on” can be eliminated. It’s a different way of approaching the issue which keeps websleuths focused on productive angles of inquiry…. JMO MOO. I really value everyone’s input and interest so far so just trying to offer something back..
 
Nifty said:
The police are looking for a vehicle with suspected damage which could have been used in Samantha's disappearance

The police don't believe she is in the bush, so she must have been transported out, without anyone seeing

There could be witnesses as well, who have seen quite a lot that morning near Mt Clear, and have given police extra crucial information...

Seen Sam struggling with some people
Seen a dented vehicle with Sam getting pushed in
A vehicle and other vehicles with persons sitting inside partially in the bush
Person/s acting suspiciously near Mt Clear on mobile, agitated
heard a gunshot / screams
person/s might have been known recognised

It was a very hot day when Sam disappeared, so some people might have been active in the early morning before it got too hot and taken walks through there or bike ride
Click to expand...
Thanks Nifty. It was going to be hot later in the day, but I can't find what the temperature was at 7am. Or even 8am. Does anyone have those details?
 
With regard to the speculation about it taking SM longer than expected to run 7km, it is also possible that SM ran that 7km at her usual pace and remained in the one spot for some time before her phone was last detected pinging there.

With regard to police asking for footage of damaged vehicles, I think it is viable that they are investigating the possibility that SM was hit by a car.
Apparently the Vic Major Collision Investigation Unit were involved in Friday’s search.

“While the 'targeted search', which oddly included members of Victoria Police's Major Collision Investigation Unit, turned-up nothing, it provided headline news across the country that day.”
www.dailymail.co.uk

Questions police refuse to answer about Samantha Murphy mystery

Detectives leading the investigation into the disappearance of mother-of-three Samantha Murphy are holding onto clues they believe will solve the mystery.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
 
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BreakingNews said:
Thanks Nifty. It was going to be hot later in the day, but I can't find what the temperature was at 7am. Or even 8am. Does anyone have those details?
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All that I have seen is that between 6am and 9am it went from 15C to 28C.

b.jpg

Ballarat Weather | Elders Weather

Daily readings of temperature and rainfall over the past three months from all Australian Bureau of Meteorology weather stations
www.eldersweather.com.au www.eldersweather.com.au
 
Oona said:
... With regard to the speculation about it taking SM longer than expected to run 7km, it is also possible that SM ran that 7km at her usual pace and remained in the one spot for some time before her phone was last detected....
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The police were able to determine it was on foot, so they must have had access to data like GPS data to determine the pacing.

This was stated by Acting Superintendent Mark Hatt in his last news conference which has been linked previously and also previously discussed around this point by others.
 
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Just as an example, this is what the GPS showed for Theo Hayez's last movements.
They could also determine when he sped up, when he stopped and for how long, and when he slowed down. They also knew the tracking stopped just after midnight.

If they have anything like this for Sam, it will show a lot.

b.jpg


imo
 
I am not sure if this point has been mentioned before about a possible reason the only photo of SM shown to the public of what she looked like that day does not show her full lower body.

I think they could have purposely done this as a common investigative tactic to verify the stories of any witnesses that day. eg maybe her running shoes were distinctive in some way.
 
Nifty said:
The police are looking for a vehicle with suspected damage which could have been used in Samantha's disappearance

The police don't believe she is in the bush, so she must have been transported out, without anyone seeing

There could be witnesses as well, who have seen quite a lot that morning near Mt Clear, and have given police extra crucial information...

Seen Sam struggling with some people
Seen a dented vehicle with Sam getting pushed in
A vehicle and other vehicles with persons sitting inside partially in the bush
Person/s acting suspiciously near Mt Clear on mobile, agitated
heard a gunshot / screams
person/s might have been known recognised

It was a very hot day when Sam disappeared, so some people might have been active in the early morning before it got too hot and taken walks through there or bike ride
Click to expand...
By the way...

How do Police know that there was a damaged car involved?

Maybe I missed something, the thread moves quickly.
 
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