Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #5

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Something happened today that made me think.
Got one of those missing people alerts on my phone.
Described the man as thin and unshaven. Right away I thought, druggie.
Then I looked at his photo on Twitter.

Nice looking and neat, with a well cared for little beard and moustache.

Just goes to show whan an effect words can have.
V true. I shouldn't be calling people bogans but I have even choicer words for whoever has stolen this Mum.
 
There was a point in the Under Investigation report that jumped out for me as possibly a message for the perp (or more generally for viewers when they most likely know a lot more than can be revealed).

At around 33:08, the former detective asks the digital data specialist: if LE have had the data for 18 days why has it taken so long to search that area. The digital data specialist replies “that is a really good question”. His response is “maybe they wanted to see if the perps went back to that spot”. The former detective replies “good answer” in what to me seemed quite a pointed and ‘knowing’ kind of way.

Maybe nothing to it but it really stood out for me and I wondered if it was a message of any kind
Yeah.. I noticed this too… but unfortunately I get the impression this is to cover over a massive police error..ie.. they ; probably didn’t know the importance of the spot & it wasn’t surveilled.

It would be a very hard area to adequately cover with covert surveillance. I can’t imagine they had this all up and running on a non suspicious case.. so early on.
 
I’m sure if you had a family member go missing and you felt the compulsion to ask the public for more assistance in another short press conference the police would sooner or later have to accommodate you?

Maybe Mick and the rest of the family have a compulsion to accommodate the police request and let them get on with their work?

It may be, in the future, that the police ask the family to step in front of the cameras again ... if none of the 500 pieces of information, 12,000 hours of CCTV, and at least one phone tower dump, give them what they need.

imo
 
Yeah.. I noticed this too… but unfortunately I get the impression this is to cover over a massive police error..ie.. they ; probably didn’t know the importance of the spot & it wasn’t surveilled.

It would be a very hard area to adequately cover with covert surveillance. I can’t imagine they had this all up and running on a non suspicious case.. so early on.

If you look at the police helicopter data I posted above from 17th Feb (i.e. 6 days before they announced Mt Clear as an area of interest) - they were looking there.
 
@Dogmum05 - I'm going to attach the files I have of various search areas (printed in media or otherwise via this forum)

1) This first one is from ABC online (news) article - 7th of Feb 2024 - indicating these are the initial search areas
View attachment 487913

2) Next one is news article (also ABC) from 11th Feb 2024 - notice the search areas differ
View attachment 487914

3) then on 17th Feb 2024 - the vicpol helicopter spent time here
View attachment 487915

3) continued - helicopter seemed to land/was off radar at about this location for a period of time (also 17 Feb 2024) before returning to Melbourne (Essendon)

View attachment 487916

4) Mount Clear area indicated as new search zone of interest - 23rd Feb 2024 (*same day LE confirm they have phone/digital confirmation of her location at Mount Clear)

View attachment 487918

5) 7 news prints a picture with locations - 3/4 March 2024
View attachment 487923


6) Today - police plane revisits Ballarat - 4 March 2024 (*same day info about LE having increased availability of phone data from towers)

View attachment 487920

View attachment 487921

Hope this is helpful to have all in one recent post. If anyone has any additional bits I've missed, let me know and I will edit.

Thanks so much! I feel like we need a media thread for this case lol
 
Yeah.. I noticed this too… but unfortunately I get the impression this is to cover over a massive police error..ie.. they ; probably didn’t know the importance of the spot & it wasn’t surveilled.

It would be a very hard area to adequately cover with covert surveillance. I can’t imagine they had this all up and running on a non suspicious case.. so early on.

MOO
The disappearance of Samantha has always been suspicious to everyone. To me its obvious the Police were on to this straight away.

The Police early on said they have no suspicious evidence but that doesn't mean they didn't think it was suspicious from the get go.
 
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Speaking to the Herald Sun,
Mick said: “I’ve been speaking with the police and I’ve been advised not to say anything”. From an article Feb 8th

Also in this old news article,
Her phone pinged just hours after she vanished and has since gone silent.”
So maybe that rumored 5pm ping was actually much earlier.


I think it's a much earlier ping. But police won't confirm
 
i think it was in the herald sun, they said it was rumoured but then they pulled the article, it may be what charlie bezzina was alluding to with his weird comment about possible involvement with a family member of sorts?

Thank you bearbear. :)

Could the article have been pulled because it mentioned about the AVO?

That, to me, seems to imply it is important to the case and it was pulled in order to not have this aspect further discussed in the public and risk compromising the investigation.
 
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Well interesting day just caught up on 10+ pages! You folks have been busy.

Started the day frustrated re mobile tower data search announcement - apologies for overreacting, makes more sense now, re needing warrant and needing evidence of a crime to get the data, and just how much data would need analysis. Thanks to those who provided clarifications. Nothings ever as quick or easy as it looks in the movies…

So, perhaps this is the state of play IMO:
- a week ago police pieced together SMs phone and/or watch data that shows SOMETHING important changing at 8am around Mt Clear. Pulse increase, or pulse stop on the watch, or change of pace of the phone movement to indicate SM in a vehicle - maybe all of the above?
- whatever it was, was enough evidence of a crime to secure a warrant for the phone tower data.
- I imagine it would then take a few days/weeks to obtain the data.
- now police have that data and have begun analysis.
- best case scenario now is police already have a prime suspect or at least a strong theory, and this phone data analysis is a now a validation process to hone right in and see where that phone pinged throughout the day.
- very interesting that air wing was back on the case today, I don’t think that’s a coincidence.
- I guess all that data will take a lot of time but the air wing action today gives me hope, if police know what they are looking for this will be quick.
- fingers crossed this all means an arrest tomorrow or very soon? IMO

Who will it be?
- I don’t think MM had the opportunity to be involved, he was with kids on the morning then seemed to raise the alarm quickly, and he seems to have police and SMs friends vouching for him along the way.
- I read nothing into his presser I think he just looked like a rabbit in the spotlight, right out of his comfort zone, quiet country bloke with a hundred cameras thrust in his face while still in shock at what was unfolding. He was totally shown up by his composed daughter who has inherited SMs strong fighting character. SM and MM would be very proud.
- Dotta I agree all the business, bikies, hitman theories for me are too elaborate and unlikely.
- I’m sticking with random stalker/sicko theory, either fixated on SM at some stage and made a move, or was just a complete random waiting for someone to come along - wrong place, wrong time. Small chance with this theory that SM is still alive, maybe that’s what draws me to it over the others?
- backup theory is SM encountered someone who was up to no good already and they’ve covered their tracks and hidden the evidence. This includes anything from SM witnessing a drug deal / drug stash or similar, to an accidental hit, hide & run by someone who couldn’t afford to get caught drink/drug driving or whatever else they were up to in the forest.

Appreciate the clarification with MSM link re brunch with friends, which contradicts other MSM I linked stating family brunch. So i guess it could be either - or both, family & friends?! May or may not be relevant, just another piece of conflicting info to go along with the 10, 13, 14, 15 and 20km running distances and phone ping time…

Love the maps post MondaysChild that is brilliant.

All caught up now. Over & out IMO.
 
I’m sure if you had a family member go missing and you felt the compulsion to ask the public for more assistance in another short press conference the police would sooner or later have to accommodate you?

I doubt there is any law to stop the family from doing a press conference. They are not doing one because they chose to take the advise of the police investigators, at least at this early stage.

If later on if they lose faith in the police investigation, they would surely do one if they wanted to, and would not need to seek permission.
 
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Oh and one more thing, interesting quote from this ABC article below which I found a good read, Telecommunications expert Mark Gregory stating police would be comparing phone data around SMs disappearance with data around the Sissy Austin attack a year earlier. I’m not sure Mr Gregory would have any inside info but perhaps that option of a repeat offender is still in the mix:

For the case of Ms Murphy, Mr Gregory expected there could be a team of up to 100 people, from police and the telecommunications companies, trawling through the data and then chasing down the people identified.

"We're probably talking 10 towers if you're going to go around that area," he said.

"They're going to have to find the people, ask what they're doing in the area and follow up. It's a definite task force activity if they seriously look at all the towers ringing that area and go back to look at what happened to [Sissy Austin] a year ago."


 

Ms Murphy had been due to catch-up with friends for brunch at 11am on the day she went missing.

Daily Mail, 4th March. For what it's worth, still saying the brunch was with friends.
I know we’re not supposed to bash the media but this is such trash from DM, to dredge up and publish photos from a 2017 Bali trip, including grieving kids, then track down the tour guide for comments (about a customer from 7-8 years ago?!) and then print this in the headline “her tour guide breaks his silence about what he witnessed”. Breaks is silence, really? My second WTF for the day.

DM I know you read this for ideas for your articles and clickbait headlines - do better & respect a grieving family, especially kids. IMO.
 
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