JM was not so certain of the inevitability of the verdict. And only one possibly biased/tainted juror stood in the way of the DP.
There is IMO nothing inevitable about verdicts or sentencing in jury trials. From all after the fact indications, IMO the foreman #1 would have voted a lesser charge if the had taken Nurmi's advice and not gone for self-defense.
This! ^^
I think/know you're talking about the penalty phase, but I still insist that she could have gotten off with 2nd degree in the guilt phase had a few things worked out differently.
Think about it: If JM hadn't found those magazine messages; if he hadn't put together the gas can evidence, etc., that would change everything...
Also, if it had been some other prosecutor...
Or, if she had come clean right from the start and confessed, no further investigation would have taken place, so no gas cans, etc. would have made it into the trial...
My point is, early on, she had every reason to believe she could get off on 2nd degree, and every opportunity to make that happen; and were it not for her extreme hubris, she might have been successful. She has only her incredible arrogance to blame (and JM's excellent work!) for where she is now.
Karma, thy name is Jodi Arias...