Found Deceased Spain - Esther Dingley, from UK, missing in the Pyrenees, November 2020 #2

[RedHaus]

Since we seem to be back to trying to figure out ED's likely hiking route, 11/21-11/24 - and where she might have spent the night on 11/21? - and where she may have aborted (due to hypothermia, lack of food, injury, etc.) her hike or simply ended her hike back at her van in Banasque on 11/24?, I thought I'd revisit a recent post of mine (#870), and @Grouse's response (#872), both on page 44. The theme is a two-loop hike in France. Attached here is a map from @jsoap I had referenced.

Anyhow, let me try again to suggest, IMO, a possible hiking route for ED that fits most of the limited data we have -- using a time line format....

• 11/21, late am, Bellerin gives ED a ride on her way from her van in Banasque to the base of the trail to Pic de Sauvegarde
• 11/21, early pm, ED summits Pic de Sauvegarde and takes lots of pics, posting them to Instagram
• 11/21, mid pm, ED descends from the summit, heads through the Port de Vanesque, passes the refuge de Vanesque - perhaps the upper trail per @otto's ideas
• 11/21, end of day, ED stays overnight near the Hospice de France (either inside, outside), at the Cabane du Pesson (see my post #873), or bivouacs...
• 
  
• 11/22, am and early pm, ED completes what I labeled Loop #2 clockwise (per jsoap's attached map) and ends up at the base of Pic de Sauvegarde
  • Note: Grouse provided this great link for that route, and she suggests this could have been done counter clockwise. I think clockwise since it fits better.
  • Pic de Sauvegarde en circuit depuis l'Hospice de France
• 11/22, ~ 3pm ED encounters the Olympic skier on the only trail up to Pic de Sauvegarde and asks for fruit or something fresh
• 11/22, late afternoon - ED either summits Pic de Sauvegarde a 2nd time, or she heads through the Port de Vanasque after her skier encounter
• 11/22, ~4pm ED's phone sends a picture of her at the summit of Pic de Sauvegarde to DC - we are not sure if she was at the summit or somewhere within range of it
• 11/22, end of day, ED stays overnight at the Refuge de V (inside, outside), at the Cabane de la Porte de Glere (see Skiptolou's attachment link, below), or bivouacs
• 
  
• 11/23, ED completes what I labeled Loop #1 near Porte de Glere, clockwise through the Chemin de l'impératrice, past Hospice de France, back towards Refuge de V (@Skiptolou had previously provided this map to illustrate this route: https://www.websleuths.com/forums/attachments/278038/)
• 11/23, end of day, ED stays overnight at the Refuge de Vanesque (inside, outside) or bivouacs somewhere between there and Banasque
• 
  
• 11/24, ED returns to her van in Banasque

IMO, trying to figure out ED's route may help narrow down options as it relates to where she may have had a fatal accident or died from hypothermia (possibly bivouacing off-piste) - or where she could have encountered a hostile human nearer to civilization if she aborted or naturally ended her hike. The fact that SARs / LE did not find evidence ED stayed at the Refuge de Vanasque, could mean she had a fatal or serious incident on 11/22 or 11/23 or it could mean the sniffer dogs missed her scent.

Just thought I'd share this again, in case it got lost in the shuffle. Happy to hear others' thoughts.

 

[otto]

It's not uncommon for tourists to under-estimate risks. Everything is done to locate them, but it is never an international effort.

7 instances of Germans going missing in B.C.’s wilderness - Macleans.ca

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's brother was skiing in the back country when something went wrong. He went down the mountain to the bottom of the lake. His body has been in the lake since 1998.

https://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/1998-michel-trudeau-lost-in-bc-avalanche

 

[The_Investigator]

Snipped for focus.

There are different kinds of "fit". See here for someone who was likely way fitter than ED at the time she went missing: Kate Matrosova found dead after getting stranded in treacherous conditions on holiday climb | Daily Mail Online

Yes, I had previously read that, and she appeared to be even fitted the ED, but ED have a very expensive down sleeping bag, so I don’t think the overnight temp. Would have been a problem and wasn’t the weather in the day ok, on mist or rain or winds?

 

[otto]

I remember reading witness accounts when Michel Trudeau had the skiing accident. He was described as having surfaced in the lake, but struggled to remove his backpack, skis and gear until he drowned. If Esther miscalculated and tumbled into the lake, she would have the same problem with removing wet gear fast enough to survive.

 

[wary]

You know it is strange that we all saw the BBC interview, that was released to coincide with some more books they were releasing, completely understand they were marketing there, it’s how they make their money,.. BUT then she disappears. I go back to what we have discussed before, was it too much publicity and someone used the opportunity as we could all see what she was up to in terms of solo hikes etc,.. why wasn’t it just another solo hiker? Why her in particular to go missing when she is already in the news,.. I can’t answer that but it bothered me from the beginning of this thread. Probably why we are all so interested,... just so many things don’t sit right. I also think the two older guys mentioned earlier,: the lift guy and the guy running the refuge could be opportunists,... I don’t think she had an accident,.. To fit for that.

Looking at your last sentence: fit people have deadly accidents—you could fill a book with their names.

MOO

 

[ZaZara]

Since we seem to be back to trying to figure out ED's likely hiking route, 11/21-11/24 - and where she might have spent the night on 11/21? - and where she may have aborted (due to hypothermia, lack of food, injury, etc.) her hike or simply ended her hike back at her van in Banasque on 11/24?, I thought I'd revisit a recent post of mine (#870), and @Grouse's response (#872), both on page 44. The theme is a two-loop hike in France. Attached here is a map from @jsoap I had referenced.

Anyhow, let me try again to suggest, IMO, a possible hiking route for ED that fits most of the limited data we have -- using a time line format....

• 11/21, late am, Bellerin gives ED a ride on her way from her van in Banasque to the base of the trail to Pic de Sauvegarde
• 11/21, early pm, ED summits Pic de Sauvegarde and takes lots of pics, posting them to Instagram
• 11/21, mid pm, ED descends from the summit, heads through the Port de Vanesque, passes the refuge de Vanesque - perhaps the upper trail per @otto's ideas
• 11/21, end of day, ED stays overnight near the Hospice de France (either inside, outside), at the Cabane du Pesson (see my post #873), or bivouacs...
• 
  
• 11/22, am and early pm, ED completes what I labeled Loop #2 clockwise (per jsoap's attached map) and ends up at the base of Pic de Sauvegarde
  • Note: Grouse provided this great link for that route, and she suggests this could have been done counter clockwise. I think clockwise since it fits better.
  • Pic de Sauvegarde en circuit depuis l'Hospice de France
• 11/22, ~ 3pm ED encounters the Olympic skier on the only trail up to Pic de Sauvegarde and asks for fruit or something fresh
• 11/22, late afternoon - ED either summits Pic de Sauvegarde a 2nd time, or she heads through the Port de Vanasque after her skier encounter
• 11/22, ~4pm ED's phone sends a picture of her at the summit of Pic de Sauvegarde to DC - we are not sure if she was at the summit or somewhere within range of it
• 11/22, end of day, ED stays overnight at the Refuge de V (inside, outside), at the Cabane de la Porte de Glere (see Skiptolou's attachment link, below), or bivouacs
• 
  
• 11/23, ED completes what I labeled Loop #1 near Porte de Glere, clockwise through the Chemin de l'impératrice, past Hospice de France, back towards Refuge de V (@Skiptolou had previously provided this map to illustrate this route: https://www.websleuths.com/forums/attachments/278038/)
• 11/23, end of day, ED stays overnight at the Refuge de Vanesque (inside, outside) or bivouacs somewhere between there and Banasque
• 
  
• 11/24, ED returns to her van in Banasque

IMO, trying to figure out ED's route may help narrow down options as it relates to where she may have had a fatal accident or died from hypothermia (possibly bivouacing off-piste) - or where she could have encountered a hostile human nearer to civilization if she aborted or naturally ended her hike. The fact that SARs / LE did not find evidence ED stayed at the Refuge de Vanasque, could mean she had a fatal or serious incident on 11/22 or 11/23 or it could mean the sniffer dogs missed her scent.

Just thought I'd share this again, in case it got lost in the shuffle. Happy to hear others' thoughts.

This is a case in Europe. Kindly consider using European time and date notation since all reports use this notation: Day, Month, Year.
You could also write 'November' instead of 11.
But for instance 11/3 is confusing. Europeans read this as 11 March.

 

[otto]

Yes, I had previously read that, and she appeared to be even fitted the ED, but ED have a very expensive down sleeping bag, so I don’t think the overnight temp. Would have been a problem and wasn’t the weather in the day ok, on mist or rain or winds?

You can check the weather conditions at this site:

Archive météo 42.7°N 0.64°E

 

[The_Investigator]

Cold temperatures will also kill your lithium phone battery

Really.. what temperature and what could you do to protect it, put it inside something insulated perhaps? I was out hill running today and it was -2 c and I had my phone in my running backpack, never thought of the temperature possibly affecting it, will think about that in future. Does Anyone know the temperature safe range for batteries in phones?

 

[The_Investigator]

Since we seem to be back to trying to figure out ED's likely hiking route, 11/21-11/24 - and where she might have spent the night on 11/21? - and where she may have aborted (due to hypothermia, lack of food, injury, etc.) her hike or simply ended her hike back at her van in Banasque on 11/24?, I thought I'd revisit a recent post of mine (#870), and @Grouse's response (#872), both on page 44. The theme is a two-loop hike in France. Attached here is a map from @jsoap I had referenced.

Anyhow, let me try again to suggest, IMO, a possible hiking route for ED that fits most of the limited data we have -- using a time line format....

• 11/21, late am, Bellerin gives ED a ride on her way from her van in Banasque to the base of the trail to Pic de Sauvegarde
• 11/21, early pm, ED summits Pic de Sauvegarde and takes lots of pics, posting them to Instagram
• 11/21, mid pm, ED descends from the summit, heads through the Port de Vanesque, passes the refuge de Vanesque - perhaps the upper trail per @otto's ideas
• 11/21, end of day, ED stays overnight near the Hospice de France (either inside, outside), at the Cabane du Pesson (see my post #873), or bivouacs...
• 
  
• 11/22, am and early pm, ED completes what I labeled Loop #2 clockwise (per jsoap's attached map) and ends up at the base of Pic de Sauvegarde
  • Note: Grouse provided this great link for that route, and she suggests this could have been done counter clockwise. I think clockwise since it fits better.
  • Pic de Sauvegarde en circuit depuis l'Hospice de France
• 11/22, ~ 3pm ED encounters the Olympic skier on the only trail up to Pic de Sauvegarde and asks for fruit or something fresh
• 11/22, late afternoon - ED either summits Pic de Sauvegarde a 2nd time, or she heads through the Port de Vanasque after her skier encounter
• 11/22, ~4pm ED's phone sends a picture of her at the summit of Pic de Sauvegarde to DC - we are not sure if she was at the summit or somewhere within range of it
• 11/22, end of day, ED stays overnight at the Refuge de V (inside, outside), at the Cabane de la Porte de Glere (see Skiptolou's attachment link, below), or bivouacs
• 
  
• 11/23, ED completes what I labeled Loop #1 near Porte de Glere, clockwise through the Chemin de l'impératrice, past Hospice de France, back towards Refuge de V (@Skiptolou had previously provided this map to illustrate this route: https://www.websleuths.com/forums/attachments/278038/)
• 11/23, end of day, ED stays overnight at the Refuge de Vanesque (inside, outside) or bivouacs somewhere between there and Banasque
• 
  
• 11/24, ED returns to her van in Banasque

IMO, trying to figure out ED's route may help narrow down options as it relates to where she may have had a fatal accident or died from hypothermia (possibly bivouacing off-piste) - or where she could have encountered a hostile human nearer to civilization if she aborted or naturally ended her hike. The fact that SARs / LE did not find evidence ED stayed at the Refuge de Vanasque, could mean she had a fatal or serious incident on 11/22 or 11/23 or it could mean the sniffer dogs missed her scent.

Just thought I'd share this again, in case it got lost in the shuffle. Happy to hear others' thoughts.

Brilliant, I think that stands up as a very possible set of potentials !

 

[otto]

Really.. what temperature and what could you do to protect it, put it inside something insulated perhaps? I was out hill running today and it was -2 c and I had my phone in my running backpack, never thought of the temperature possibly affecting it, will think about that in future. Does Anyone know the temperature safe range for batteries in phones?

Cold weather dwellers know that if you put your phone on the seat of a cold car during Winter, chances are it will have a drained battery in 5 minutes.

"Chilly weather can cause major woes for iPhone owners – slashing battery life and even forcing the phone to turn off.
...

Forecasters say temperatures will dip to lows of -4C on Halloween, with snow sweeping Britain next week.
...

And frosty weather always leads to complaints from iPhone users that battery life isn't up to scratch – but you shouldn't worry too much."​

iPhone owners warned cold weather can kill battery life and force it to suddenly turn off

 

[The_Investigator]

You can check the weather conditions at this site:

Archive météo 42.7°N 0.64°E

Thank you

 

[The_Investigator]

Cold weather dwellers know that if you put your phone on the seat of a cold car during Winter, chances are it will have a drained battery in 5 minutes.

"Chilly weather can cause major woes for iPhone owners – slashing battery life and even forcing the phone to turn off.
...

Forecasters say temperatures will dip to lows of -4C on Halloween, with snow sweeping Britain next week.
...

And frosty weather always leads to complaints from iPhone users that battery life isn't up to scratch – but you shouldn't worry too much."​

iPhone owners warned cold weather can kill battery life and force it to suddenly turn off

Ok so the solution is keep it in you knickers !

 

[Grouse]

Is there any proof or possibility she actually went beck to the van that night? Is that do-able? In terms of distance and perhaps with a head torch?

It's about 10km each way so I'd be surprised if she'd do that but it's easily possible on foot or by hitching a lift.

 

[RickshawFan]

Anyhow, let me try again to suggest, IMO, a possible hiking route for ED that fits most of the limited data we have -- using a time line format....

• 11/21, late am, Bellerin gives ED a ride on her way from her van in Banasque to the base of the trail to Pic de Sauvegarde
• 11/21, early pm, ED summits Pic de Sauvegarde and takes lots of pics, posting them to Instagram
• 11/21, mid pm, ED descends from the summit, heads through the Port de Vanesque, passes the refuge de Vanesque - perhaps the upper trail per @otto's ideas
• 11/21, end of day, ED stays overnight near the Hospice de France (either inside, outside), at the Cabane du Pesson (see my post #873), or bivouacs...

Snipped for focus

The Hospice is too far. The trail up out of the Refuge basin is a long series of steep switchbacks, and this would have been the end of a long day already. If she packed right, she'd also have her full complement of food in her pack, so it would be heavier than average. She might have been carrying 25-27 pounds, at the lightest, especially if she's carrying that yellow tent.

 

[BobbleBob]

Ok so the solution is keep it in you knickers !

Pretty much! Close to your body where it’s warm. While the cold will sap the available energy of phones battery (or any batter) you can get the life back by warming it up again! Just watch out for condensation if it’s next to your body (I stick mine in a ziplock bag when I hike or go for a long cycle, protects from rain too)

 

[otto]

Ok so the solution is keep it in you knickers !

The phone should to be close to your body, but not too close because of low levels of radiation. A pocket is a good idea. If Esther put her phone on the ground when the temp was around freezing, she could have drained the battery.

Given that there is no evidence of her, not a glove, shoe, or walking pole, it's quite likely that she tumbled down a mountain with all her gear attached to her and that she was in no condition to make a call even if there was wifi service.

 

[Grouse]

Note: Grouse provided this great link for that route, and she suggests this could have been done counter clockwise. I think clockwise since it fits better.

Great summary that and I will look at in more detail, but I must point out one slight correction - BBM

 

[otto]

Pretty much! Close to your body where it’s warm. While the cold will sap the available energy of phones battery (or any batter) you can get the life back by warming it up again! Just watch out for condensation if it’s next to your body (I stick mine in a ziplock bag when I hike or go for a long cycle, protects from rain too)

My experience with a battery drained by cold temps is that it might regain 10-15%, but it's basically toast until it is fully charged again.

 

[BobbleBob]

Something that I’ve been wondering about, the transmitter on the Pic de Sauvegarde. Lots of people here are saying it’s WiFi... so is it just an actual WiFi access point or is it a small mobile phone repeater? If it’s WiFi you’re going to have to be fairly close and have nearly line of sight to get signal. So anything sent would be 100% sent at the summit.

 

[RickshawFan]

Since we seem to be back to trying to figure out ED's likely hiking route, 11/21-11/24 - and where she might have spent the night on 11/21? - and where she may have aborted (due to hypothermia, lack of food, injury, etc.) her hike or simply ended her hike back at her van in Banasque on 11/24?, I thought I'd revisit a recent post of mine (#870), and @Grouse's response (#872), both on page 44. The theme is a two-loop hike in France. Attached here is a map from @jsoap I had referenced.

Anyhow, let me try again to suggest, IMO, a possible hiking route for ED that fits most of the limited data we have -- using a time line format....

• 11/21, late am, Bellerin gives ED a ride on her way from her van in Banasque to the base of the trail to Pic de Sauvegarde
• 11/21, early pm, ED summits Pic de Sauvegarde and takes lots of pics, posting them to Instagram
• 11/21, mid pm, ED descends from the summit, heads through the Port de Vanesque, passes the refuge de Vanesque - perhaps the upper trail per @otto's ideas
• 11/21, end of day, ED stays overnight near the Hospice de France (either inside, outside), at the Cabane du Pesson (see my post #873), or bivouacs...
• 
  
• 11/22, am and early pm, ED completes what I labeled Loop #2 clockwise (per jsoap's attached map) and ends up at the base of Pic de Sauvegarde
  • Note: Grouse provided this great link for that route, and she suggests this could have been done counter clockwise. I think clockwise since it fits better.
  • Pic de Sauvegarde en circuit depuis l'Hospice de France
• 11/22, ~ 3pm ED encounters the Olympic skier on the only trail up to Pic de Sauvegarde and asks for fruit or something fresh
• 11/22, late afternoon - ED either summits Pic de Sauvegarde a 2nd time, or she heads through the Port de Vanasque after her skier encounter
• 11/22, ~4pm ED's phone sends a picture of her at the summit of Pic de Sauvegarde to DC - we are not sure if she was at the summit or somewhere within range of it
• 11/22, end of day, ED stays overnight at the Refuge de V (inside, outside), at the Cabane de la Porte de Glere (see Skiptolou's attachment link, below), or bivouacs
• 
  
• 11/23, ED completes what I labeled Loop #1 near Porte de Glere, clockwise through the Chemin de l'impératrice, past Hospice de France, back towards Refuge de V (@Skiptolou had previously provided this map to illustrate this route: https://www.websleuths.com/forums/attachments/278038/)
• 11/23, end of day, ED stays overnight at the Refuge de Vanesque (inside, outside) or bivouacs somewhere between there and Banasque
• 
  
• 11/24, ED returns to her van in Banasque

IMO, trying to figure out ED's route may help narrow down options as it relates to where she may have had a fatal accident or died from hypothermia (possibly bivouacing off-piste) - or where she could have encountered a hostile human nearer to civilization if she aborted or naturally ended her hike. The fact that SARs / LE did not find evidence ED stayed at the Refuge de Vanasque, could mean she had a fatal or serious incident on 11/22 or 11/23 or it could mean the sniffer dogs missed her scent.

Just thought I'd share this again, in case it got lost in the shuffle. Happy to hear others' thoughts.

I'm very confused about this "two loop" scenario. As far as I can tell, it's all one loop. This loop is presented with all the photos of the route (including all the great photos of the Refuge basin) in the French blog upthread.
IMO In the circumstances, ED would not have been able to make it down to the Hospice and back up again between the 21st and the 22nd. There are simply not enough hours. IMO